By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently.

This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather. With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days.

Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational (especially the API), and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

I’m sure this is the last thing that most want to hear, but once again, weather is going to play a factor this week. Weather will not impact the Valspar even remotely as much as it impacted the PLAYERS, but I do believe one side of the wave will possess an advantage. Thursday is expected to see perfect scoring conditions all day, with wind gusts maxing out at 8 mph. On the other hand, Friday is supposed to be quite windy, with gusts ranging from 13 mph to 22 mph. The worst time to play this golf course will undoubtedly between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM on Friday, with gusts in the 22 mph range. This is a sizable jump from the morning, which will see guests between 13 mph and 17 mph.

In my opinion, the PM/AM will have an advantage this week. How much of an advantage remains to be seen, but if I had to guess, about 0.5 – 0.75 of a stroke sounds about right. Once again, this may not sound like much, but over a large period of time, little edges like these start to add up.

Unfortunately, when I made my initial player pool, 13 of my 20 golfers were on the “wrong” (AM/PM) side of the draw. Once factoring in ownership, I narrowed the pool down to 18 players, with 9 on the AM/PM side and 9 on the PM/AM. There were far too many players on the “wrong side” of the draw I felt too strongly about to drop, although I did shift my biggest liabilities to nearly all players on the PM/AM side.

Personally, I will be taking a similar strategy as I did at the PLAYERS. I’ll have a few lineups that completely stack PM/AM, a few less lineups that completely stack the other side, and the majority will have 4 or 5 PM/AM guys, and 1 or 2 AM/PM guys. There are still some AM/PM players that I absolutely refuse to give up on, but of my 18 player pool, the PM/AM players will be relied on more heavily.

This is simply a strategy that I feel comfortable with this week. This article is not about telling you what to do, it’s about telling you what I am going to do, and what I think others might do. There is far less chatter this week about stacking. I just think a lot of people are extremely burnt out from last week’s chaos, and I don’t believe enough people are paying attention this week for ownership to be affected in either direction. Also, the vast majority of the most popular plays are on the “wrong side” of the draw, and I do not see that changing at the 11th hour. Let’s dive into my Core 4.

Core 4: My four strongest plays of the week that I will be the most overweight on relative to the field

• Justin Thomas, $11,000 (21.5% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
  • I almost went Xander Schauffele here again at lower ownership, but I couldn’t ultimately stomach it. I will still have my fare share of Schauffele, who is also on the “right” side of the draw, but I trust the state of Thomas’ game right now far more. Thomas is an ideal fit for this course, he’s on the correct side of the draw, and it’s chalk that I can absolutely afford to eat with how weird I get at the bottom. He’s a great anchor this week, and he will be lower owned than Viktor Hovland, even though I don’t believe he should be.

• Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100 (6.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
  • Well, I said this last week about Tony Finau, but I firmly believe a 6% Tommy Fleetwood, whose on the “right” side of the draw, and coming off his best ball-striking in months, is my favorite play on the entire board. Fleetwood is wedged right in between Abraham Ancer, Jason Kokrak, and Matt Fitzpatrick, who all project to be above 16%, and two of those three players will likely crack 20%. Despite massive signs of life at the PLAYERS last week, Tommy Lad will undoubtedly be the forgotten man in this range, and I will attempt to capitalize.

• Harold Varner, $8,600 (8.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
  • I did not expect to find myself so enamored with Harold Varner at the beginning of the week, but I’m shocked to see him as the best pivot in the 8K range. 95% of the time, Varner is over-owned, especially when he is coming off a good week. Varner gained over 8 strokes ball-striking last week at the PLAYERS, and simply could not buy a putt down the stretch. With that being said, I was incredibly impressed by what I saw from him at TPC Sawgrass. 6 months or a year ago, Varner is finishing T29 in that tournament. Yet he hung tough and remained relevant on the back nine. I have always been high on his talent, and I think breaking through in a good field at the Saudi International did a lot for his confidence. It’s very rare we get a player sub 10% coming off such an encouraging performance, but the course history truthers are steadfast this week about Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, and Keegan, who completely surround Varner in this range. I’ll take my chances with an 8% Varner, who is also on the “right” side of the draw.

• Alex Smalley, $7,100 (3.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
  • I firmly believe that Alex Smalley is going to pop this week, so I was absolutely devastated to see that he is on the “wrong” side of the draw. Still, I am not deterred. The first thing that sprung to mine when researching Innisbrook was how much it resembled the course we played at Duke, which is also Smalley’s alma-mater. Kevin Streelman and Adam Hadwin are also Duke guys who have been great at Innisbrook, so this may not be as much of a reach as it sounds. Outside of that connection, Smalley is just playing some really solid golf right now. He gained 5 strokes ball-striking at the API, and he continues to make cuts on harder golf courses and in good fields. The former Korn Ferry Tour standout finished 15th last fall at the Houston Open, and has made the cut this year at Riviera, PGA National, Torrey Pines, and Bay Hill. I think I have the nuts with him this week.

Chalk Report 

• $10K
  • My guess is that Viktor Hovland will be the highest owned player on the slate. I don’t believe that it will be 30% or anything like that, but 24% for Viktor sounds about right. There will still be a lot of interest in both Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa, who I both expect to be somewhere in the 15-22% range. Dustin Johnson will trail all of them and likely fall somewhere in between 11-16%, and Xander Schauffele will be the clear pivot, probably falling between 9-13%. I think you have to play Schauffele at that ownership considering he’s on the right side of the draw as well. Hovland obviously checks every single box from a handicapping perspective, but he was on the chopping block for me at 25% and on the wrong side of the draw. If you want to ride with Hovland, I still think you can, but I would avoid playing Hovland with the 9K chalk as well. My guess is that Hovland-Burns, Hovland-Kokrak, Hovland-Ancer, and even Hovland-Louis will be extremely popular builds.

• $9K
  • Jason Kokrak will likely be the highest owned player in this range, and I would not be shocked to see him close to 22%. Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Burns will not be far behind, and I expect all four of those players to come in somewhere between 16 and 23%. Fitzpatrick is my pick to win this tournament, and I would play him at any ownership, but I switched more exposure to Fleetwood when I saw how the ownership was shaking out. Hard pass on Kokrak and Burns for me, but I had a more difficult time figuring out who to keep between Louis, and Ancer. I ended up cutting Ancer and sticking with Louis, who was the number one player in my model for the second time in his last three starts. It should also be noted that out of these four popular options, Burns is the only player on the right side of the draw this week. I still prefer Louis, but I will say that I think the Burns chalk is better than Kokrak chalk. Tommy Fleetwood is the clear pivot play in this range, and you know I’ll be there.

• $8K
  • Can we just pause for a second and take a moment of silence for the people that think a 21% 8.1K Russell Knox is a good idea? I LOVE Russell Knox from a handicapping standpoint, and I think he is an excellent Top-20 or Top-40 play, but come on now. A 20+% Keegan Bradley is somewhat more palatable, but still unplayable in my opinion. It’s important to consider that if you want to play Knox or Bradley, or even Woodland or Bubba, for that matter. Just know that their course history is completely baked into their price and ownership. You aren’t being sneaky. And in the case of Knox and Bradley, you are buying them both at their absolute highest price. Both players came off a Top-10 finish at one of the biggest tournaments of the year, and now return to a golf course that they have both played extremely well at. Think of it like a stock. Day, Noren, Varner, and Kisner, and maybe even Webb and Bubba will all be sub-12% and are very reasonable pivots off Knox, Keegan, and Woodland. Of that group, I’m playing Noren, Varner, and Webb. I do think Webb is worth a shot this week at this price and ownership, but it’s not a play for the faint of heart.

• $7K
  • Everything that I just said about Russell Knox and Keegan Bradley applies to a 17% 7.9K Adam Hadwin, who also just finished Top-10 at the PLAYERS and returns to a course he’s won at before. Hadwin has been kind to me this year, but I think you are chasing if he’s a foundational piece of your DraftKings core. Hadwin will be the only player above 15% in this range, but Aaron Wise, Denny McCarthy, Martin Laird, Mito Pereira, and Patton Kizzire may also crack 10%. I think Aaron Wise, Mito Pereira, and Martin Laird are all really good plays this week, and I have no problem deploying them at between 8 and 13% ownership. Just be weary of the fact that if you are already playing guys like Hovland, Ancer, Kokrak, Keegan, Knox, and Hadwin, you probably are going to need to differentiate down here. I think Bezuidenhout and Molinari are excellent options, and both just missed my Core 4.

• $6K
  • As is the case most weeks, there is no one you really have to worry about down here. Pat Perez, Troy Merritt, and Kramer Hickok may be the only players that crack 5%. I’m getting weird down here with Vaughn Taylor, Danny Lee, Luke Donald, and Wesley Bryan. Again, not for the faint of heart.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price):

1. Justin Thomas, $11,000 (21.5% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
2. Xander Schauffele, $10,300 (10.0% projected ownership (PM/AM)
3. Louis Oosthuizen, $9,900 (18.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
4. Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100 (6.0% projected ownership (PM/AM)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick, $9,000 (16.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
6. Alex Noren, $8,700 (9.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
7. Harold Varner, $8,600 (8.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
8. Webb Simpson, $8,300 (12.5% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,900 (5.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
10. Aaron Wise, $7,700 (11.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
11. Francesco Molinari, $7,500 (6.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
12. Mito Pereira, $7,200 (11.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
13. Martin Laird, $7,200 (11.0% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
14. Alex Smalley, $7,100 (3.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
15. Vaughn Taylor, $6,700 (4.5% projected ownership) (PM/AM)
16. Danny Lee, $6,600 (3.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
17. Luke Donald, $6,500 (0.5% projected ownership) (AM/PM)
18. Wesley Bryan, $6,300 (3.0% projected ownership) (AM/PM)