2023 Course Breakdown: Albany Golf Course
The Basics
- Course: Albany Golf Course
- Location: Nassau, Bahamas
- Designer: Ernie Els (2010)
- Length: Par 72; 7,414 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
- Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass
- Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass measuring 1’5”
- Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass
The Hero World Challenge is a golf tournament that is (somehow) officially recognized by the OWGR and hosted by Tiger Woods. It features a field (capped at 20) of, generally, many of the best players in the world. The tournament benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation, and while it is co-affiliated with the PGA TOUR, the event does not offer FedEx Cup points or official prize money. The Hero World Challenge has undergone some structural changes over the last two decades, also hopping around to various locations and running through multiple title sponsors. In 2008, the field was increased to 18 players, consisting of the most recent winners of the four majors, the top 11 players in the OWGR, the defending champion, and four sponsor exemptions chosen by the Tiger Woods Foundation. Since 2001, the tournament has been contested in January, and from that point until 2013, was held at Sherwood Country Club, a Jack Nicklaus design in Thousand Oaks, California. From 2008 to 2011, Chevron was the title sponsor. In 2012, Northwestern Mutual took over presenting duties. From 2014 on, Hero Motorcorp has been the title sponsor, and from 2015 on, the event has been held at Albany Golf Course in Nassau, Bahamas. Here’s how the event has played out since moving to its current location:
Event History
- 2022: Viktor Hovland (-16) over Scottie Scheffler (-14)
- 2021: Viktor Hovland (-18) over Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 Pandemic
- 2019: Henrik Stenson (-18) over Jon Rahm (-17)
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-20) over Tony Finau (-16)
- 2017: Rickie Fowler (-18) over Charley Hoffman (-14)
- 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-18) over Henrik Stenson (-16)
- 2015: Bubba Watson (-25) over Patrick Reed (-22)
For the same reasons I don’t model out LIV events, I struggle to find value in going through my entire regular process for an event with such a small field, no strokes gained data, and questionable motivation for all participants. For example, I caught wind of an unsubstantiated rumor two years ago from someone inside (close to?) the Spieth camp that the three-time major winner embarked on a few rather boozy dinners after a slow round one. Spieth went on to finish in dead-last by five strokes. He was 12 strokes worse than the player who finished 18th out of 20 players. Last year wasn’t much better for Spieth. Point being, maybe certain players view this event as more of a vacation than a business trip. On the flip side, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler have finished first and second each of the last two years and may conduct their business at Albany a bit more seriously. Even without prize money, everyone is still competitive, and most want to impress Tiger too. Many of these guys are all friendly, and whether it’s a five-dollar Nassau or The Masters, they still want to beat the living crap out of each other. Sure, the vibe may be a bit more laidback this week, but I mainly bring up the Spieth tidbit to suggest that we should not be surprised if a few of the players have a bad early round. This is one of the more social events of the entire schedule, and I’ve been told that not all players follow their normal tournament routine this week. Those that make their way into contention will still approach business seriously, but many will still use this opportunity to host heavily boozed-up dinners with their buddies before putting the clubs away for the holidays. Let’s still point out some tidbits and opinions on the golf course for those inclined to bet and play DFS this week.
I do believe that the Hero is an incredibly watchable event on a somewhat fun golf course. The main caveat to that statement is the wind. Usually at this event, players are treated to relatively benign conditions with the occasional pocket of swirling winds. Two years ago, the wind came up on Sunday and we experienced multiple ejections (R.I.P. Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns) and a relatively entertaining Sunday for a tournament that does not typically breed the most competitive environment. Last year, the wind was more of a consistent issue for players throughout the tournament, and it played over a stroke and a half harder than it did in 2021. The Ernie Els design features wide fairways, barely any rough, and a fair amount of sandy waste areas. . Players will be forced to chip off firm Bermuda grass, and Els did a nice job with some of the green complexes and utilization of collection areas. When it gets windy, the course can really firm up, and there’s enough trouble with the tight lies and sandy waste areas where players will be forced to answer questions that they can normally avoid at most run-of-the-mill birdie-fests. Still, there’s a reason why the winner has needed to get to at least 16-under par in all six editions of this event since moving to Albany.
The course itself a non-traditional par 72 with five par threes, eight par fours, and five par fives. All five of the par threes play over 180 yards and average around even par. They all rank inside the top nine in scoring average. The 14th is a drivable four that plays as the second-easiest hole on the course, but other than that, the par fours provide a stout test. Four par 4s measure between 470 and 490 yards and play as three of the four toughest holes on the course. The quintet of par fives is what really drives the scoring average down, however. All five play over a quarter stroke under par, and the par-five 15th plays closer to a long par four than a short par five, with a birdie or eagle percentage north of 60%.
On paper, Albany provides a wealth of scoring opportunities. Most pros destroy any course with four par fives. The fact that Albany has five should tell you everything there is to know about the opportunities they will have this week. With that being said, I would encourage bettors and DFS players to take a peek at the weather this week before making any selections. Island courses are generally susceptible to wind and often designed in a way that, without conditions, fail to provide any meaningful defense of par. There’s no need for me to pile on the limitations of Ernie Els as an architect, but weather will play a massive role in determining the outcome of this tournament.
Course History: While Albany shows an extremely low correlation between course history and success, here are the results of all the players in the field this week, ranked by their true strokes gained number at Albany. I wouldn’t get too caught up in course history, as we’ve already seen Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm win on their first appearance at this track. Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, and Cameron Young were all in the mix over the last two years as first-timers. It always helps to know where to hit it, but Albany lacks nuance. The golf course is all out in front of you. What you see is what you get.
- Viktor Hovland (+3.91)
-
- 1st (2021), 1st (2022)
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.54)
- 2nd (2021), 2nd (2022)
- Cameron Young (+3.49)
- 2nd (2022)
- Rickie Fowler (+2.79)
- 3rd (2015), T3 (2016), 1st (2017), T5 (2018), 9th (2019)
- Collin Morikawa (+2.54)
- T5 (2022), 6th (2023)
- Justin Thomas (+2.14)
- 11th (2017), T12 (2018), T5 (2019), T5 (2021), 5 (2022)
- Tony Finau (+2.05)
- 2nd (2018), T10 (2019), T7 (2021), 7th (2022)
- Justin Rose (+1.84)
- 13th (2015), WD (2016), T5 (2017), 3rd (2018), T5 (2019), T9 (2021)
- Sam Burns (+1.79)
- T3 (2021), 12th (2022)
- Sepp Straka (+1.49)
- T10 (2022)
- Tiger Woods (+1.12)
- 15th (2016), T9 (2017), 17 (2018), 4th (2019)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.04)
- T12 (2021), T13 (2022)
- Jordan Spieth (+0.81)
- 4th (2015), T6 (2016), T3 (2017), 16th (2019), 20th (2021), 15th (2022)
- Keegan Bradley (+0.66)
- 15th (2018)
- Jason Day (+0.41)
- 16 (2018)
- Max Homa (-0.51)
- 17th (2022)
- Brian Harman
- 1st Appearance
- Wyndham Clark
- 1st Appearance
- Will Zalatoris
- 1st Appearance
- Lucas Glover
- 1st Appearance
Key Stats: After taking in more information on the golf course, here are a few statistics that deserve more of our attention this week.
- While driving distance at Albany is remarkably high (72.6%, 14.2% higher than Tour average), players must avoid the sandy waste areas at all costs. The landing zones are very wide, so there is not a necessity to possess elite accuracy. Instead, Good Drive Percentage can help us identify players who are devoid of the big miss. This is an asset for Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, and Brian Harman. This is a detriment for Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Tiger Woods, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tony Finau.
- Despite featuring incredibly wide driving corridors, greens in regulation percentage at Albany is still just 61.0% (3.2% down from Tour average.) While Albany does not feature shot tracker, I still went hole by hole and did my best to approximate the most likely proximity distances based on hole strategy and average driving distance. Here’s what I came up with:
- Inside 100 yards: 28% (Tour average: 10.5%)
- 100-125 yards: 0% (Tour average: 11.8%)
- 125-150 yards: 11% (Tour average: 17%)
- 150-175 yards: 6% (Tour average: 20.3%)
- 175-200 yards: 33% (Tour average: 17.5%)
- 200 yards-plus: 22% (Tour average: 28.9%)
Albany is unique in the sense is that nearly one-third of all approach shots will be flip wedges or long irons. Less than 20% of all approach shots may come from between 100 and 175 yards, but over 80% come from either inside 100 yards, or over 175 yards. The best players in this field inside 100 yards in this field are Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, and Matt Fitzpatrick. This is a detriment to Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young, and Tiger Woods. The best players in this field from 175-200 yards in this field are Scottie Scheffler, Lucas Glover, Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, and Collin Morikawa. This is a detriment to Sam Burns, Brian Harman, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth.
- While an undeniably easy golf course, Albany features very small putting surfaces with troublesome collection areas, and a lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage. Still, players are inevitably going to miss these small targets on occasion, especially if the wind kicks up. Sam Burns’ short game lost the tournament for him two years ago. Chipping off tight Bermuda is also a singular skill, so I wanted to identify the players with the best around-the-green play on Bermuda courses over the last two years. This is an asset for Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Scottie Scheffler, and Max Homa. This is a detriment for Sepp Straka, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, and Cameron Young.
- Bermuda-grass putting will also be essential, as I’m not convinced that Albany provides a ton of separation from tee to green unless the wind really gets going. The best Bermuda-grass putters in this field over the last two years have been Sam Burns, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, and Justin Rose. This is a detriment for Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Lucas Glover, and Justin Thomas.
- Finally, players are presented with a unique opportunity this week to attack five par fives. Taking advantage of this quintet of three-shotters will be absolutely essential. The best par-five scorers in this field have been Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, and Collin Morikawa. This is detriment for Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Sepp Straka, Tiger Woods, and Viktor Hovland.
Comparative Courses: On the other hand, Albany does remind me of multiple courses that might help us identify players who are primed for this style of golf. Let’s run through a few other courses that may be predictive of success at Albany.
- Port Royal, host of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, is another island course with similar agronomy. Despite being a fair amount shorter than Albany, the proximity buckets are actually similar at both courses. Both Albany and Bermuda feature a large plurality of wedges and long irons with very few middle irons. Players have the ability to pull driver often due to the generous driving corridors, and both lent themselves nicely to bombers over the years as well. Port Royal also most accurately displays what we may see this week at Albany in terms of wind. In calm conditions, both courses are a walk in the park that will yield a ton of birdies. If the wind picks up, however, expect some carnage. Here are the results from those in the field who have played Port Royal:
- Wyndham Clark: 2nd (2020)
- Scottie Scheffler: T3 (2023)
- Matt Fitzpatrick: T30 (2021)
- Sepp Straka: MC (2018), MC (2019), T21 (2020), T51 (2021)
- Max Homa: T34 (2020)
- Lucas Glover: T45 (2022), T63 (2023)
- El Cardonal, host of the World Wide Technologies Championship for the first time this year, is an another island golf course with wide open fairways and a large plurality of long irons. The corridors are a bit less invasive at El Cardonal, but the driver-heavy strategy is similar at both tracks. Unfortunately, only Lucas Glover has experience at this track. He recorded a 59th.
- Vidanta Vallarta, host of the Mexico Open, is another longer, driver-heavy, island golf course that certainly fits the bill. The largest difference that I would call to attention between Vidanta and Albany is the agronomy, as the prior features a slow and sticky Paspalum. Albany on the other hand, plays firmer and faster due to the TifEagle Bermuda. I’d say that putting and short game matter a bit less at a course like Vidanta, yet in terms of an island course that essentially only asks players to keep the ball in play and strike a few long irons well, you’d be hard pressed to find a stronger comparison than the Greg Norman design. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have triumphed the past two years at Vidanta. I do not believe it to be a coincidence that both have experienced loads of success at Albany as well. Here are the results from those in the field who have played Vidanta Vallarta.
- Tony Finau: T2 (2022), 1st (2023)
- Wyndham Clark T67 (2022), T24 (2023)
- Lucas Glover: MC (2023)
- Congaree, host of the 2022 CJ Cup and 2020 Palmetto Championship, is another long golf course with expansive fairways, sandy waste areas in the absence of rough, interesting green complexes with a great deal of collection areas, and similar agronomy. Once again, Jon Rahm found his name near the top of the leaderboard, providing further evidence of the similarity between the two tracks. Tommy Fleetwood finished third in his only appearance at Albany, and he was fourth at last year’s CJ Cup. Sam Burns, who contended at Albany last year, finished in a tie for seventh with Bermuda savant Billy Horschel. I was also encouraged to see Tom Kim finish 11th at this event. Matt Fitzpatrick also deserves mention for finishing 13th at the 2022 CJ Cup and 10th at the 2021 Palmetto Championship. Here are the results from those in the field who have played Congaree.
- Matt Fitzpatrick: T10 (2020), T13 (2022)
- Sam Burns: T7 (2022)
- Jason Day: T11 (2022)
- Viktor Hovland: T21 (2022)
- Keegan Bradley: T21 (2022)
- Max Homa: T23 (2022)
- Cameron Young: T23 (2022)
- Brian Harman: T23 (2022)
- Collin Morikawa: T29 (2022)
- Wyndham Clark: T29 (2022)
- Rickie Fowler: T34 (2022)
- Justin Thomas: T40 (2022)
- Scottie Scheffler: T45 (2022)
- Jordan Spieth: T52 (2022)
- Lucas Glover: MC (2020), T58 (2022)
- Sepp Straka: MC (2020), T62 (2022)
- TPC Craig Ranch, host of the Byron Nelson Championship, is another wide-open, wedges and long irons golf course where making birdies in bunches is the main objective. The greatest defense of TPC Craig Ranch is its sheer length, and players can bomb away with little concern for rough or hazards. TPC Craig Ranch features different agronomy and is an easier golf course on paper that lacks the trouble in play for the big miss at Albany, yet it still encourages a similar aggressive approach (particularly off the tee). Here are the results from those in the field that have played TPC Craig Ranch.
- Jordan Spieth: T9 (2021), 2nd (2022)
- Scottie Scheffler: T47 (2021), T15 (2022), T5 (2023)
- Justin Thomas: T5 (2022)
- Sam Burns: 2nd (2021), MC (2022)
- Jason Day: MC (2021), T51 (2022), WIN (2023)
- Will Zalatoris: T17 (2021), MC (2022)
- Wyndham Clark: T39 (2021), MC (2022)
- Sepp Straka: T26 (2021), T73 (2022)
- Rickie Fowler: MC (2021)
- Lucas Glover: T79 (2023)
- Matt Fitzpatrick: MC (2021)
Best of luck this week – AL
