By Andy Lack

2023 WGC Dell Technologies Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Strategy

Rick already did an excellent job breaking down strategy this week in his DFS preview, so I will not belabor the point. I have a strong sense that anyone taking the time to read this already understands the importance of building lineups optimally this week. Just to recap, I would only recommend deploying multiple players from the same group in your lineup if you are playing in a cash game. To win a GPP this week, you will need to have a lineup with one player from each of the four quadrants to give yourself a chance at a 4/4 final four. Yet in my opinion, it’s really about giving yourself an opportunity to get 6/8 in the quarter-finals. Each group has four players, each pod has eight players, and each quadrant has 16 players. Every single one of my lineups this week will have a player from a different pod, presenting me with the opportunity for all six of my players to advance to the quarter-finals.

An “optimal lineup” would consistent of only one player from six of the eight pods, while still having one player from each of quadrant. This “optimal lineup” would provide you with the opportunity to have 6/8 in the quarter-finals, and 4/4 in the semi-finals. Every single one of my 8 lineups this week check that box, and I have used a player pool of only 16 players, with one from each group.

Weather 

For the first time in what feels like forever, we don’t really have to worry about the weather giving certain players an advantage. Tee times are completely spread for the group stage rounds across Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and wind gusts are pretty consistent across the board. The only point about the weather I would make is that with 17-33 mph gusts across Wednesday and Thursday, this course will play tough. Austin Country Club is walk in the park in benign conditions, but any course with gusts upto 30 mph is a challenge. I’m not sure if windier conditions would make you want to adjust your pool to include players who have thrived in more difficult scoring conditions, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Core 4

• Patrick Cantlay, $10,700 (Quad 4) (Projected ownership: 16.6%): Quite simply, I feel fairly confident that Patrick Cantlay at minimum will advance out of his group, and he has been my pick to win this tournament since before the brackets even came out. Outside of the fact that I love his draw, Cantlay is also striping the ball off the tee right now, and has a tremendous track record of success at shorter, positional Pete Dye courses, such as TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, and the Stadium Course at PGA West. I expect him to roll to at least the quarter-finals with ease, and I would wager that he will be raising the trophy come Sunday afternoon in Austin.

• Sungjae Im, $9,400 (Quad 1) (Projected ownership: 9.4%): I’m a huge fan of Sungjae Im’s chances this week and he is also an outright bet for me at +3500. Sungjae is the number one player in this field off the tee at shorter courses, as well as the number two bunker player in this field on a course that contains upwards of 80 sand traps. His ownership is more than fair, and will be spread out next to Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, who both come from the same price range and quadrant.

• Rickie Fowler, $8,200 (Quad 2) (Projected ownership: 8.3%): Rickie Fowler has been playing some excellent golf this season, as the swing changes finally appear to paying off. He’s done nearly everything but find the winner’s circle this year, and he should have some added motivation this week given that a Masters invitation is on the line. The big concern of course is his draw, as he finds himself in the same group as Jon Rahm, yet I’m willing to take my chances with the volatility of this tournament and take the discount on Fowler.

• Cameron Davis, $6,600 (Quad 3) (Projected ownership: 7.1%): My beloved Cam Davis finally proved his worth with a top-six finish at the Players Championship, displaying that he is finally starting to heal from an injury (unbeknownst to us) that caused him to brutally miss four cuts in a row. I do believe he has a challenging group to get out of, as I am quite high on Tom Hoge this week, but Aaron Wise looks completely lost and I am not a huge fan of Xander this week either. I think the price and ownership is fair, as I have far more confidence in Davis making a run out of quadrant three than the more highly owned Denny McCarthy.

Ownership

• $10K: Of the six players in the $10K range this week, it appears that Max Homa is getting most of the love at around an even 20%. He is one of three players above $10K that are in Quadrant four, so I’m a bit surprised that ownership did not spread out more seeing as it is sub-optimal to play any combination of Cantlay, Spieth, and Homa. After Homa, Scottie Scheffler understandably appears to be up next at around 18.5%, followed by Patrick Cantlay in the range of 15 to 18%. I have Jon Rahm coming in at a modest 14.8%, followed by Rory McIlroy at 12.8%, and Jordan Spieth at 10.4%.

• $9K: I have Tyrrell Hatton coming in as the highest owned player on the slate, and as much as I love his draw and current form, it’s hard to justify a play at 21% given the volatility of this tournament. For what it’s worth, he is the only $9K player in Quadrant three, so it does make sense that ownership is conglomerating around the fiery Brit. After Hatton, I would say there is a fairly sizable drop before we get to Viktor Hovland at 15.5%. Hovland and Morikawa being priced next to each other in the same quadrant is interesting, and it appears that more folks are in love with the young Norwegian, as Morikawa sits at a modest 12%. Cameron Young and Tony Finau will certainly eclipse low to mid double digits. I have both coming in between 11 and 15%. Some opportunity presents itself with Jason Day and Sungjae Im, who both could come in with high single digits ownership.

• $8K: It appears that Will Zalatoris will be the highest owned player in this range at around 16%, which I have a difficult time endorsing given my lingering concerns around his injury. Not to mention the fact that there are a ton of appealing options at low ownership once we work our way into the mid to low $8K range. Just like most weeks, the $8K range can typically present itself as a dead zone. Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, and Keith Mitchell all could come in at high single digits ownership. Tommy Fleetwood appears to be the only player garnering significant attention once we get past Zalatoris, and I have the Englishman coming in at around 14.5%.

• $7K: The most popular options in this range will be Tom Hoge and Min Woo Lee, both in quadrant three. If forced to choose, I would absolutely go the route of Hoge given his recent iron form, but 15% in this format feels a touch strong for anyone. Taylor Montgomery, and potentially Keegan Bradley, Ryan Fox and Corey Conners may also hit double digits, but ownership is actually fairly spread out down here.

• $6K: Denny McCarthy is garnering a fair amount of attention down here and I do have him coming in past the double digit mark. There’s a small chance that Ben Griffin gets double digit love as well, but I have him closer to 8 or 9%. Players such as Maverick McNealy and Cameron Davis will come in with high single digits ownership, but are not a threat to cross the double digit threshold. Everyone else has a fairly unconcerning number.