With another off week on the docket before we head to Rome for the Ryder Cup, let’s indulge in another annual tradition of predicting the year’s four major championships. In part two, I’ll cover the U.S. Open and Open Championship. Let’s dive in!
The U.S. Open @ Pinehurst No.2
Winner: Patrick Cantlay
Back-up pick: Viktor Hovland
The 2023 U.S. Open returns to what many believe to be the America Mecca of golf, Pinehurst Resort in Pinehurst, North Carolina. The last time that Pinehurst hosted a men’s major championship was all the way back in 2014, and since I was in college in the area at the time, I had the blessing of attending. I’ve been lucky enough to attend over a dozen major championships in my life, and the 2014 U.S. Open remains far and away the most dull event I’ve ever witnessed. None of that is the fault of the spectacular Pinehurst No.2, which I have played before and remains a wonderful test of golf. It’s more of a reflection of Martin Kaymer’s eight stroke wire to wire victory. The tournament was essentially over by Friday afternoon, as Kaymer held a six stroke lead heading into the weekend. Erik Compton and Rickie Fowler, the two runner-up finishers, were both nice stories, but they never remotely threatened Kaymer’s lead down the stretch. The German played downright surgical, mistake free golf. A style of golf required to claim victory on a firm and fast track that bears resemblance to Australian sand belt courses. While it’s hard to imagine that the German’s eight stroke romp will be replicated again, who better to carry on the tradition of monotony in the Tar Heel State than the modern day Kaymer?
I am of course referring to Patrick Cantlay, who is not just a worthy Kaymer comparison based on his skill-set, but also holds a serious claim as the most tedious and uninspiring elite player on Tour. Similar to the McIlroy selection, this is another pick that will probably get some flack due to Cantlay’s lack of pop in the four biggest events of the year, but his major struggles have always been far more overblown than what the results would indicate. While there has yet to be a Sunday where it truly felt like Cantlay had a chance to win, five top-15s in his last six majors is nothing to stick your nose up at.
Kaymer laid the roadmap at Pinehurst out clearly. The fairways are too firm to truly over-power the golf course, as wayward drives will often end up in brush and expansive waste bunkers. Total driving, long iron play, and lag putting is the name of the game. Cantlay finished the 2023 season ranked first in total driving, seventh in proximity from 200 yards plus, and 13th in approach putt performance. Over the last 12 months, only five golfers ranked top-50 in true strokes gained in all four major statistical categories: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay. If we saw a leaderboard populated by these names this coming down the stretch at Pinehurst, I would not be the least bit surprised. The classic Donald Ross design, restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, strongly differs from courses such as Valhalla and Oak Hill in that it cannot be over-powered. Unlike other U.S. Open venues such as Torrey Pines and Winged Foot, Pinehurst will be far more of a complete test that emphasizes patience, precision, and touch on and around these infamous turtle-back greens. There are few I trust in the game more to keep the ball in play off the tee and navigate undulating putting greens than Patrick Cantlay, and who more fitting to carry the torch for Kaymer as an another uninspiring U.S. Open victor at the iconic resort?
Open Championship @ Royal Troon
Winner: Tyrrell Hatton
Back-up pick: Cameron Young
The 2023 Open Championship returns to Royal Troon, the site of one of the most epic duels in recent major championship history. I am of course referring to Henrik Stenson vs. Phil Mickelson in 2016, who both separated themselves from the field by five strokes heading into the final round. Stenson ultimately triumphed by three on Sunday, and what made the battle so captivating was the contrasting styles of play between its gladiators. Henrik Stenson remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball of the modern era, while on the contrary, precision off the tee has always been the weakest aspect of Mickelson’s game. The contradistinction did not just end with Mickelson and Stenson. The 2016 leaderboard at Royal Troon was littered with incongruities. For every incredibly accurate player, there was a bomber who equally impressed. J.B. Holmes, one of the longest players on Tour, came in third, yet Steve Stricker, a far shorter and but much more accurate player finished fourth. Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, and Sergio Garcia all came next in fifth place. Of course, Rory is one of the longest players of his generation. Hatton is far more accurate than he is long, and Sergio falls somewhere in the middle.
This made landing on an early decision as somewhat of a challenging proposition. The Open has increasingly felt the only remaining major in the modern game where distance off the tee is not necessarily essential to success. Running through the last nine Open winners, not a single champion’s calling card was their power off the tee. For this reason, it is not the type of tournament like the Masters where we can easily eliminate inexperienced players, or the PGA Championship or U.S. Open where players can be easily crossed off based on their lack of a specific skill-set. We probably didn’t need Brian Harman whooping the field by six to hammer home this point, but the Open Championship is far and away the most difficult major to handicap.
When first diving into Troon, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland all came to mind as immediate contenders that I did not have penciled in at the first three majors. Still, with my first three selections were bonafide top-six players in the world, and coming off a year where Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman claimed two of the four majors, I wanted to stick my neck out just a little.
With some valuable experience at Royal Troon already under his belt, I believe that Tyrrell Hatton will break the British drought and claim the 152nd Open Championship. I already mentioned that Hatton was one of only five players to rank top-50 in all four major strokes gained categories over the last 12 months, and I firmly believe a balanced attack remains the path of least resistance at the most variable major of the year. In 2023, Hatton put together his best season in three years, finishing the year as a +1.7 strokes gained golfer, with 15 top-20s and six top-sixes in 25 starts. He finished top-35 at all four major championships, and he’s made the cut in his last eight majors. His fifth at Royal Troon in 2016 remains his best finish at an Open ever, but Hatton also finished sixth at Portrush in 2019. While there was never a moment in either of those tournaments where Hatton possessed a legitimate chance to win, he continues to raise his baseline each year on the grandest stage. Outside of strong showings at all four majors, Hatton recorded five top-12 finishes at elevated events, not even including a runner-up at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and a sixth at the Scottish Open, two events across the pond which both featured incredibly strong fields in their own right. We’ve continued to average around two first time major winners per year over the last few seasons, and Hatton is quickly rising up the ranks as the best major-less player of the last decade.
