By Andy Lack

The 2023 3M Open Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

There are a few ways to interpret this weather, and probably the easiest case to be made is that the AM/PM players will see some form of advantage due to the high wind guests on Friday morning. With that being said, the reason I would not go all in on a AM/PM advantage is that both mornings look to be worse than both afternoons. Yes, Friday morning is certainly breezier than Thursday morning, but Friday afternoon is also a touch breezier than Thursday afternoon. All in all, those with AM/PM tee times might see a 0.25 to 0.4 stroke advantage. It’s a worthy tie-breaker, but I certainly do not have the cahones to go all in this week on a wave stack.

Core Four

• Tony Finau, $10,600 (Projected ownership: 12.2%): I had a feeling that there would be an opportunity this week with Tony Finau, and the fact that he is the least popular of the options in the $10K range is far from surprising. I’ll gladly take my chances that the defending champion can recapture some of the strong vibes from his late summer run in 2022. While Finau has failed to do much of anything since winning the Mexico Open in June, his ball-striking has remained solid, and he now returns to a course that is incredibly well suited for his game. There’s something that Finau undeniably jives with about TPC Twin Cities, as he has made this event a regular stop on his schedule all four years that it has been in existence. I like Finau on target golf courses that are pure execution tests, as even in a down stretch, he remains one of the class ball-strikers in this field. While the results have been underwhelming over the past two months, Finau is still a top-five iron player in this field, and he continues to make a ton of birdies. The five time PGA Tour winners feels but a small few details away from regaining the consistency that we have grown accustomed to seeing out of him, and there should be some added motivation on the line as well. His Ryder Cup spot is far from safe. If we zoom out and just talk big picture, Finau has been the sixth best player in the world from a true strokes gained standpoint over the last 12 months. That’s not the sixth best player in this field, it’s the sixth best player in the world. Yet still, it’s been an incredibly muted reception this week in the fantasy and betting community for our defending champion. I adopt a buy-low mindset almost to a fault, so as a shock to no regular reader, Finau is my preferred option at the top.

• Gary Woodland, $9,200 (Projected ownership: 11.9%): Brian Harman’s breakthrough victory last week at the Open Championship had me thinking a bit about Gary Woodland and his career trajectory. While polar opposites in their style of play, both Harman and Woodland had similar resumes, similar betting prices, and were of similar age the week of their respective major victories. The 2019 U.S. Open championship has had an odd career since that magical week at Pebble Beach. He’s actually progressed into a better ball-striker, which unfortunately has gone hand in hand with his descent into one of the worst putters on Tour. This is an odd situation where I wonder if the price is telling us something. With just one top-10 on the season, I’m fairly surprised he found his way into the $9K range. Woodland hasn’t sniffed contention all season, and yet he is $300 more expensive than Adam Hadwin, who has immaculate course history here, and just lost in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Woodland is also as low as 25/1 at Bet365, a book with a known tendency to take stands and go off market on a player they have no interest in taking action on. While I was surprised with the price, it’s not as if my numbers don’t love him. Yet due to a faulty putter, the results just simply have not been there. I still have a strange feeling about this one. Nothing about his DraftKings price makes sense or smells right, which for better or worse, only makes me want to play him more. For what it’s worth, TPC Twin Cities should not be mistaken for a putting contest. It ranks well below Tour average in percentage of strokes gained with the flat-stick, and well above Tour average in percentage of strokes gained ball-striking. The Arnold Palmer design is a pure target golf affair. A ball-striker’s course through and through. It asks a very specific question over and over again. This is what will happen if you hit the ball here, and this is what will happen if you hit the ball here. Woodland is still the absolute best mid to long iron player in this entire field, and one of the best drivers of the ball to tee it up in Minnesota as well. It’s about time the results started lining back up with the talent.

• J.T. Poston, $8,400 (Projected ownership: 11.4%): I’m fairly confident this is a debut appearance in the core four for J.T. Poston, a player I rarely spend time highlighting. With that being said, Poston has shown us time and again that he is a microwave, and a player that you simply must ride when he is in form. What’s ideal about this particular scenario is that he is not being respected for how well he is currently playing. Poston is coming off back-to-back sixth-place finishes at the John Deere Classic and Genesis Scottish Open, two wildly different golf courses. We saw a touch of regression at the Open Championship, but Poston still made the cut and gained over a stroke on approach. I’m glad a ho-hum performance at Liverpool is throwing many off his scent. I’m not sure what folks expect out of Poston at a major. His 40th-place finish at last week’s Open tied his best major performance ever, which speaks to how well the two-time PGA Tour winner is playing. This event is far more his speed. Poston has already shown he can navigate TPC Twin Cities with ease, with a 28th and an 11th in two appearances. He gained over a stroke and a half ball-striking in both. The 30-ear-old remains one of the best Bent-grass putters in this field, and he should always be a buy when the ball-striking is on par as well. I think there’s a lot of upside and legitimate win equity in this play as well. We’ve seen Poston go nuclear at similar events on multiple occasions. It’s nearly a late summer tradition at this point.

• Adam Svensson, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 6.1%): I’ve already pumped a lot of air into Adam Svensson’s tires this week, and I’m pleasantly surprised to see that I remain on an island with this one. I’ve spoken extensively about how TPC Twin Cities is really more of a Florida course in its nature, and that there has been a strong connection between leaderboards both here and at the Honda Classic, a tournament that Svensson has performed beautifully at. This should not come as a surprise, as Svensson is one of the most accurate drivers in this field. A 15th-place finish here where he gained over seven strokes ball-striking shows his acumen on this style of test. Svensson is also one of the best Bent-grass putters in this field, an incredibly reliable birdie-maker, and he’s on a very short list of players in this price range who have actually won at this level in the last calendar year. It was rather encouraging to see the Canadian regain form at the John Deere Classic, where he finished 21st and gained strokes in all four major categories. I would expect Svensson to continue his momentum this week in Minnesota on a track that suits his game to a tee.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: We are back this week to more run of the mill pricing, with a barren 11 and 12K range, and four players priced between $10K and $10.9K. I’m not seeing a ton of separation between Cameron Young (21%), Sungjae Im (22.5%), and Hideki Matsuyama (21.5%), and I would have a hard time choosing between those three myself. The aforementioned Tony Finau, who I have hovering around the 12% zone makes to most logical sense to me by a mile, especially because the top of the $9K range is ripe with ownership as well. Of the top seven highest priced players, Finau is the only one who I have currently coming in below 16%. That earns you a significant amount of leverage no matter how you build going forward, and still opens up the opportunity to play one or two of the popular $9K players without having to worry as much about taking on a majority of other entries with similar builds at the top.

• $9K: There a few interesting options to discuss in the $9K range this week. Emiliano Grillo (18.5%), Sepp Straka (18.5%), and Ludvig Aberg (21%) will all carry significant ownership at the top of this range. I’m pretty neutral on both Grillo and Straka, and I must admit that I think Ludvig is once again over-priced and over-owned. The potential Ryder Cupper is essentially unplayable at this point nearly every week. I do like this golf course for him more than I do previous putting contests such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run. TPC Twin Cities should accentuate his driving ability far more, but pure power isn’t going to necessarily yield success here. There is far more of an emphasis on accuracy than distance at this track, in my humble opinion. I’m happy to take a breather from Justin Thomas this week, but I’ve unfortunately been on him this season far more than I would care to admit. I will never argue with taking your chances on a player of that caliber carrying such low ownership. I still have him coming at 10.5%, as there is a significant gap in talent at the bottom of the $9K range. I would argue that Gary Woodland (12%), Stephan Jaeger (16%), and Cameron Davis (13.5%) are all a tad over-priced. I certainly expected Woodland and Jaeger, who have a combined two top-10s on the season to find themselves in the $8K range, but here we are. Even at these prices, I expect all of them to have fairly strong weeks. Along with Woodland, one of Jaeger or Davis will also make my player pool.

• $8K: There is always opportunity to be had in the $8K range, and I do believe there are some easy fades that are sucking up far too much of the ownership. A 20% Lucas Glover is dangerous, to say the least. I also have Adam Hadwin (15%), Mark Hubbard (13.5%), and Vincent Norrman (14.5%) all in the mid to low teens. I think Hadwin should be in the $9K range this week, so I have no problem with going in that direction this week, while Hubbard and Norrman would be a little more challenging for me to stomach. I’ve already shared my interest in an 11.5% J.T. Poston, and then there is a nice group of players who will most certainly come in sub-10%. J.J. Spaun, Sahith Theegala, Keith Mitchell, Patrick Rodgers, and Beau Hossler all present interesting leverage opportunities this week, and nailing the best option of this group could prove dividends. This group is lower-owned for a reason, and all players do present some questions, but I would be fairly surprised if not one of those five finished in the top-10. Spaun would be my preferred option of the group.

• $7K: An 18.5% Aaron Rai isn’t all that much more palatable than a 20% Lucas Glover, but I hope that folks exercise caution with that one as well. Similar story with a 13% Doug Ghim, a 16% Eric Cole, a 16% Austin Eckroat, and a 12.5% Chez Reavie. In a vacuum, I’m a fan of all of these players. Eckroat is on my betting card, and Reavie and Ghim were last minute cuts. I still don’t see a legitimate reason to eat the chalk with more than one of these guys in such a high variance tournament. Before you plays guys such Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, and Lucas Glover at exorbitant ownership, simply remember that water comes into play on nearly every hole on this course. Even on a golf course with a more concrete range of outcomes, none of those players are double or triple as likely to perform well as their similarly priced peers. You can find Adam Svensson, an objectively better player and course fit, at the same price and half the ownership of Ghim. I have Christiaan Bezuidenhout coming in at one fifth of the ownership of Austin Eckroat, and my numbers give him near an equal chance to finish higher on the leaderboard. A couple other low owned options that I have some serious interest in include Peter Kuest, Samuel Stevens, M.J. Daffue, and Kevin Streelman. All four will come at a fraction of the ownership of Chez.

• $6K: I’m not really seeing anything too concerning down here ala Robert MacIntyre last week. A few names that will carry more ownership than their peers include Carson Young, Troy Merritt, Trevor Cone, Ryan Moore, and Kevin Roy, but I would be fairly surprised if any of them crossed the five percent threshold.