Viktor Hovland. Young Norwegian with proud Oklahoman blood. Heavy Metal connoisseur. Top-five golfer in the world. A name in the sport we ought to get used to.
It’s been a banner year for the 25-year-old, culminating in a FedEx Cup title and the subsequent 18 million dollars which come with it (that goes a long way in Stillwater, Oklahoma.) What Viktor Hovland has accomplished in 2023 is nothing short of remarkable. In 20 starts this year, Hovland has made every single cut, with 15 top-30 finishes (75%), seven top-10s (35%), and three wins. The victories came at the Memorial, an elevated event, the BMW Championship, a FedEx Cup playoff event, and the aforementioned season ending Tour Championship. 2023 was Hovland’s best major season as well by a healthy margin. He finished seventh at the Masters, second at the PGA Championship, 19th at the U.S. Open, and 13th at the Open Championship. Prior to this season, Hovland only had three top-20 finishes in 11 major starts. This year, he finished top-20 in every single one.
The evidence of Hovland’s supreme talent was clear prior to this year, as he gained over 1.15 strokes per round both in 2021 and 2022, winning three times in the process. Yet in 2023, Hovland has evolved into a two stokes gained per round player. Over the last 12 months, only six players have gained over two strokes per round: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland. The newly minted FedEx Cup championship has established himself as a top-six player in the world in any way you want to slice it. The gap between Hovland and the seventh best player in the world by strokes gained (Collin Morikawa) is almost a quarter of a stroke per round. What’s startling about Hovland’s ascent is that we still appear to be early in the process. Golf is a non-linear game filled with troughs and valleys. It’s very rare to see a player improve upon their two-year baseline, their one-year baseline, and six-month baseline. Yet that’s the trajectory that Hovland is on. Let’s take a look at how Hovland has improved over the last two years:
True Strokes Gained Increase (Two year improvement: +0.88)
- L24 months: +1.84 (6th)
- L12 months: +2.05 (6th)
- L6 months: +2.41 (3rd)
- L3 months: +2.72 (2nd)
The last six months are where the evolution has truly taken place. It’s incredibly rare for a player to increase their strokes gained by over a quarter of a stroke in such a short period of time. Yet over the last six months, Viktor Hovland has truly made the leap. Starting in March, Hovland finished third at the Players Championship, seventh at the Masters, second at the PGA Championship, first at the Memorial, 19th at the U.S. Open, 13th at the Open Championship, first at the BMW Championship, and first at the Tour Championship. Such a run is praiseworthy by anyone’s standards, so how did he do it, and is it sustainable? Let’s run through how Hovland has been able to improve in every single aspect of his game over the last two years:
- True Strokes Gained Around the Green increase (Two year improvement: +0.37)
- L24 months: -0.15 (130th)
- L12 months: +0.08 (79th)
- L6 months: +0.09 (78th)
- L3 months: +0.22 (45th)
- True Strokes Gained Putting increase (Two year improvement: +0.28)
- L24 months: +0.34 (36th)
- L12 months: +0.27 (47th)
- L6 months: +0.41 (41st)
- L3 months: +0.72 (19th)
- True Strokes Gained Off the Tee increase (Two year improvement: +0.19)
- L24 months: +0.73 (9th)
- L12 months: +0.80 (11th)
- L6 months: +0.95 (6th)
- L3 months: +0.92 (6th)
- True Strokes Gained Approach increase (Two year improvement: +0.06)
- L24 months: +0.81 (11th)
- L12 months: +0.79 (12th)
- L6 months: +0.97 (11th)
- L3 months: +0.87 (15th)
Anecdotally, I’m sure that most would point to the improvement in his short game as the determining factor in Hovland’s ascent. The numbers do back that up, as Hovland has improved around the green by somewhere between a quarter and a half of a stroke per round over the past two years. He’s gone from being one of the worst around the green players on Tour to having a borderline top-50 short game. Increasing one’s baseline by over a quarter of a stroke in a two year period may not sound like much, but it has been a crucial element in establishing Hovland as the force he has come to be today. The Oklahoma State alumni would be the first to admit that short game was the weakest tool in his arsenal, but his work with Joe Mayo is clearly paying dividends.
What’s been so encouraging has been the drastic improvement we’ve seen around the green in majors. At both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, Hovland gained over three strokes around the green, ranking top-10 in the field. These were his best two short game performances of the season, and they came on the biggest stages. They also came out of different types of rough, which is also exciting in the context of projecting sustainability. Despite the degree of difficulty around the greens being far more challenging at major championships, Hovland has found a way to improve his baseline around the green at majors. In 16 major rounds this year, Hovland has gained 0.265 strokes around the green per round. In 64 non major rounds this year, Hovland has lost 0.029 strokes around the green per round. Essentially, Hovland is over a quarter of a stroke per round better around the greens in the four biggest events of the year. That may not sound like much, but it makes a massive difference when we increase the sample size. To place this further in context, Hovland is give or take the 105th best around the green player in the world in regular tournaments, and give or take the 29th best around the green player in the world in majors.
It’s not simply the short game either that explains the leap. Hovland has become a better a putter, a better driver of the ball, and a better iron player as well. All of this points to long-term sustainability. Over the past six months, he’s increased his off the tee baseline by almost a quarter of a stroke and his approach baseline by over a quarter of a stroke. There’s still room for improvement too. Similar to the around green play, Hovland’s ball-striking actually gets better on the biggest stage. His nine best approach performances of the season all came at majors, elevated events, or FedEx Cup playoff events. His worst approach weeks of the season came at the Charles Schwab and Pebble Beach Invitational. Who cares. Hovland gained a whopping 10.66 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship, and 7.34 strokes on approach at the Players Championship. Special, special stuff. Hovland’s driving told a similar story. His eight best off the tee weeks of the season came at elevated events, majors, or FedEx Cup playoff events. For what it’s worth, Hovland’s four best off the tee performances of 2023 came at Bay Hill, East Lake, Olympia Fields, and Quail Hollow, all long, driver heavy courses with narrow fairways and thick rough. Outside of Augusta (where Hovland was still excellent off the tee), we can expect to see a ton of future major venues feature similar off the tee conditions. Throw another feather in the sustainability bucket.
Ultimately, Hovland’s leap this season cannot simply be attributed to one improvement. Quite literally, every single aspect of his game is better today than it was a year ago. Then it was two years ago. Yet what stands out the most has been his ability to improve his driving and short game in major championship conditions. This is what has turned Hovland into a player who was only winning on tropical, Paspalum golf courses to a three-time winner this year, FedEx Cup champion, and bonafide top-five player in the world who has finished in the top-20 in each of his last five majors, seriously contending in three of them. Even more troubling for his competition, all statistical evidence points in the direction that he’s just getting started. Rock on.
