By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed.

I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Austin Country Club
• Location: Austin, Texas
• Designer: Pete Dye (1984)
• Length: Par 71 (7,108 yards)
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 7 holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with perennial Ryegrass/fescue blend
• Rough: 2 inch Bermuda-grass
• Greens: 5,500 square feet on average with TifEagle Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis

Pete Dye! 

The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Championship is one of my favorite tournaments of the year. It’s also nightmare fuel for data people like myself, as we have extremely limited statistical information on this golf course given the format and the lack of strokes gained data. This is the only non-stroke play event currently on the PGA Tour schedule, so let’s run through the format before we dive into the venue.

There are only 64 players in the field this week, and the qualifying is very simple. The top 64 in the official world golf rankings make it in. If someone in the top 64 opts not to play, the next man in the rankings is up. These 64 players are split into 16 four man groups, with each player seeded one through 64. Each group will play a round-robin format over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. One point is rewarded for a win, one half-point is rewarded for a tie, and the player with the most points after he plays everyone else in his group moves on to the knockout stage. There is a sudden death stroke-play playoff in the case of a tie. The knockout stage is played over Saturday and Sunday, with the round of 16 and quarter-finals held on Saturday, and the semi-finals and finals held on Sunday.

Okay, now on to the golf course. This tournament has been held at Austin Country Club since 2016, which must be kept in mind when looking at tournament history. Since the switch to Austin Country Club, here are the list of finals matchups and their corresponding seeds in parenthesis.

• 2021: Billy Horschel (32) over Scottie Scheffler (30)
• 2020: Cancelled due to COVID
• 2019: Kevin Kisner (48) over Matt Kuchar (23)
• 2018: Bubba Watson (35) over Kevin Kisner (32)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (1) over Jon Rahm
• 2016: Jason Day (2) over Louis Oosthuizen (16)

While there is no strokes gained data to help us understand each winner’s path to success, we can still learn a lot from examining Pete Dye as an architect and understanding his philosophy. For starters, Austin Country Club is very much a course that rewards aggressive play. There’s a reason why it was selected to host a match play tournament. It features a nice blend of short Par 3s and Par 4s, with attackable Par 5s. Tipping out to just 7,108 yards on the scorecard, players will be able to attack this course and have an abundance of birdie opportunities.

The greatest defense of this course is really the wind. Yes, all Pete Dye courses are visually intimidating and have their fare share of landmines, but nearly every hole is designed to give players an opportunity to make birdie. If this course hosted a stroke play event, my guess is that the winning score would be between 16 and 22 under par.

In the absence of strokes gained data, I will be relying heavily on corollary courses and examining crossover leaderboards. My favorite comp course is likely the Stadium Course at PGA West, host of the American Express, another Pete Dye design with similar agronomy and an abundance of risk/reward holes. Brian Harman, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm are just a few examples of players who have experienced success both at Austin C.C. and the Stadium Course. TPC Sawgrass, host of the PLAYERS Championship, also checks the box as a shorter, positional Pete Dye course with similar agronomy and many commonalities across leaderboards. Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, and Brian Harman have experienced a great deal of success at both TPC Sawgrass and Austin C.C. Finally, despite featuring different agronomy, TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, is another short, positional Pete Dye course with an abundance of risk/reward holes. Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman, and Matt Kuchar have also have racked up multiple wins and high-end finishes at both golf courses. For this reason, I will be relying heavily on previous PGA West, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands models to help me decipher the keys to success at Austin Country Club. Let’s dive into the stats!

Key Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • When scanning through the holes images and player quotes from other short Pete Dye courses, I noticed that positioning oneself on the correct side of the hole is often more important than hitting the actual fairway. Especially at Austin Country Club, two inch Bermuda rough won’t be scaring anyone. Not to mention the fact that on such a short course, players will not feel obligated to hit driver.
  • For this reason, I will be looking closely at players who do an excellent job of positioning themselves off the tee to hit greens in regulation. The top players in Good Drives Gained over the past year have been Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Collin Morikawa, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey, Will Zalatoris, and Shane Lowry. 

• Approach
  •  Iron play is the name of the game at any Pete Dye course, and Austin Country Club is no different. With a lack of proximity stats, we can only project based on hole yardages where the plurality of approach shots will be coming from. If I had to guess, I would categorize Austin Country Club the same way that I categorize all Pete Dye courses under 7,200 yards. Players will absolutely need to be on point from 150 yards and in. Sure, there will be a few long irons in hand on the longer Par 4s and Par 5s, but seven Par 4s at Austin C.C. measure under 450 yards, and all Par 3s measure under 200 yards as well. The best players in this field over the past year from 150 yards and in have been Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Keegan Bradley, and Tyrrell Hatton.

• Around the Green 
  • With only 5,500 square foot greens, players will occasionally have to rely on their short game here. Austin Country Club also features a whopping 110 bunkers on property, so Sand Saves was a stat I felt deserved some attention. The best bunker players in this field over the last year have been Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Lucas Herbert, Kevin Na, Daniel Berger, Xander Schauffele, Louis Oosthuizen, and Talor Gooch. 

• Putting 
  • Austin Country Clubs feature the same over-seeded blend of TifEagle Bermuda-grass with Poa Trivilias as we are have grown accustomed to seeing at the Stadium Course at PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC San Antonio. The best putters in this field on over-seeded Bermuda are Sam Burns, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, and Alex Noren. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Birdies are the name of the game in match play, and 50% of Austin Country Club’s holes feature over a 20% birdie rate! Players have made birdie a whopping 52% of the time at the Par 5 6th hole, and all three of the Par 5s at Austin Country Club feature over a 2% eagle rate. The players with the highest Birdie or Better percentage over the last year have been Cameron Young, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, and Justin Thomas. 
  • Opportunities Gained is a metric that measures the percentage of holes where players give themselves a birdie look inside 15 feet. Identifying the players that consistently put themselves in position to score will be crucial at this event. The players that have given themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet over the last year have been Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Luke List, Jon Rahm, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, and Tom Hoge

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • I’ve already alluded to how much I am relying on the Stadium Course at PGA West, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands to help me identify players that have thrived on shorter, positional Pete Dye courses.
    • The Top-10 players in this field in Strokes Gained Total at the Stadium Course at PGA West have been Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, Brian Harman, Patrick Reed, Sepp Straka, Scottie Scheffler, and Paul Casey. 
    • The Top-10 players in this field in Strokes Gained Total at TPC Sawgrass have been Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Bryson DeChambeau, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Abraham Ancer, and Justin Rose. 
    • The Top-10 players in this field in Strokes Gained Total at TPC River Highlands have been Paul Casey, Brian Harman, Bryson DeChambeau, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman, and Matt Kuchar 
    • The best overall players at these three courses have been Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Abraham Ancer, Brian Harman, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, and Patrick Cantlay.
    • Non-coincidentally, Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Brian Harman, Sergio Garcia, and Matt Kuchar have all recorded multiple knockout appearances at the WGC- Match Play at Austin Country Club.
  • Harbour Town and TPC Louisiana are two other Pete Dye courses that feature some similarities to Austin Country Club. With the amount of trees and different agronomy, I decided against including Harbour Town in the model, but it is worth noting that Matt Kuchar and Kevin Kisner, two WGC Match Play stalwarts, have also experienced loads of success at the South Carolina track.
  • A little more wide open off the tee, and with similar agronomy, TPC Louisiana has even more in common with common with Austin Country Club. Unfortunately the Zurich Classic of New Orleans has turned into a team event in 2017, but it is worth noting that both Bubba Watson and Billy Horschel, who have also each won at Austin C.C., also have individual stroke play wins at TPC Louisiana. Since turning into a team event, Billy Horschel has another victory, and Jon Rahm, Kevin Kisner, and Sergio Garcia, all WGC Match Play studs, have either won or finished runner-up at TPC Louisiana.

The Model 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • SG: OTT (6%)
  • Good Drives Gained (4%)
• Approach (25%)
  • SG: APP (20%)
  • GIRs Gained (5%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • SG: ARG (3%)
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Putting (20%)
  • Recent SG: Putting (10%)
  • Weighted combination of Putting at TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, and TPC San Antonio (10%)
• Scoring Stats (20%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Opportunities Gained (10%)
• Comp Courses (17%)
  • History at TPC Sawgrass (6%)
  • History at PGA West Stadium Course (6%)
  • History at TPC River Highlands (5%)

Top 20 

1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Russell Henley
5. Bryson DeChambeau
6. Adam Scott
7. Sam Burns
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Scottie Scheffler
10. Daniel Berger
11. Dustin Johnson
12. Paul Casey
13. Tom Hoge
14. Shane Lowry
15. Talor Gooch
16. Collin Morikawa
17. Louis Oosthuizen
18. Webb Simpson
19. Will Zalatoris
20. Sungjae Im

Most over-valued based on expected price: Jordan Spieth (60th), Patrick Reed (55th), Tommy Fleetwood (54th), Brooks Koepka (50th), Bubba Watson (47th), Tony Finau (42nd), Billy Horschel (38th), Matthew Fitzpatrick (37th), Xander Schauffele (25th), Collin Morikawa (16th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Russell Henley (4th), Adam Scott (6th), Paul Casey (12th), Tom Hoge (13th), Talor Gooch (15th), Webb Simpson (18th), Luke List (22nd), Alex Noren (27th), Harold Varner III (29th), Cameron Young (34th)