Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed.
I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Designer: Larry Packard (1971), with a 2015 restoration
- Length: Par 71, 7,340 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 9 holes
- Fairways: Celebration Bermuda-grass, measuring 24 yards wide on average
- Rough: 3 inch Bermuda-grass with Rye-grass
- Greens: 5,822 square feet on average with TifEagle Bermuda-grass overseeded with Poa Trivialis, running 12 on the stimp.
Not Your Typical Florida Course
Okay, hear me out. Innisbrook is really underrated. It might be the most underrated golf course on the schedule. Firstly, it’s a real test. The only courses that have regularly played harder than Innisbrook on the PGA Tour schedule over the past five years (not including majors) are PGA National, Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, and Memorial Park.
Secondly, Innisbrook gets lumped in with the other courses on the Florida swing such as PGA National and Bay Hill, yet it’s a Florida golf course only in geography, not in character. The Larry Packard design actually reminds me more of the golf courses I played in college at Duke. Innisbrook is tree-lined and features many elevation changes. It’s actually on a really interesting piece of land, whereas PGA National and Bay Hill are completely flat and littered with water at every turn. Innisbrook ranked 37th out of 40th last year in penalty strokes. PGA National and Bay Hill ranked 1st and 4th, respectively. Water really isn’t the issue at Innisbrook. It tests players in different ways. More on that later.
Another thing that sets Innisbrook apart is the fact that it is one of the only courses on the PGA Tour schedule to feature five Par 3s, and four Par 4s. Innisbrook has the 9th hardest set of Par 3s, the 5th hardest set of Par 4s, and the 3rd hardest set of Par 5s on the PGA Tour.
Holes 16 through 18 are famously dubbed the “Snake Pit.” All three holes feature over an 18% bogey rate and under a 10% birdie rate. It rivals Quail Hollow as one of the strongest finishing stretches in golf.
A sizable restoration was completed in 2016, which brought back many of the features of the original design, yet not much of its character really changed. This is not a situation like last week with TPC Sawgrass where I cautioned looking at course history prior to the 2017 renovation. A renovation generally improves a golf course, occasionally abandoning the original design philosophy to account for modern technology and playability. A restoration is an attempt to recreate how the course was originally intended to be played, as authentically as possible.
Finally, we are once again dealing with over-seeded TifEagle Bermuda greens. Most courses in Florida are over-seeded this time of year to improve quality of play, and Innisbrook is no different. Last year, the course was over-seeded with Poa Trivialis. This is a very common over-seed, and often Bent-grass is thrown into the mix as well. Yet I would not get too caught up in Innisbrook’s lack of Bent-grass. It still features a very similar putting surface to those we are used to seeing at PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC San Antonio. These are still courses we can generally look at to decipher which golfers have performed strongly on similar greens. Alright, without further ado, let’s dig into the metrics!
Key Stats
- Off the Tee
- Innisbrook features 24-yard wide fairways at the 250 yard mark. The only courses with narrower fairways are East Lake, Torrey Pines, Silverado, and Colonial.
- 13.0% of strokes gained at Innisbrook have come off the tee, which is slightly below the Tour average of 15.2%. That shot all the way down to 10.9% last year.
- The course itself is very difficult off the tee. Every single year from 2015 on, Innisbrook has ranked inside the top 10 in difficulty off the tee compared to other PGA Tour courses. This essentially just means that drives at Innisbrook were hit to worse locations than other PGA Tour courses on average.
- The inverse of Innisbrook would be Kapalua, where the average strokes gained value off the tee is the easiest on the PGA Tour because it features massive fairways and elevation changes that allow players to hit 400 yard drives. Innisbrook is on the complete other end of the spectrum. The only courses on the PGA Tour schedule with a lower average driving distance were Pebble Beach and Harbour Town. Despite the fact that many players are hitting less than driver here, driving accuracy still ranks slightly below Tour average.
- With all of that being said, the standard deviation of average score from hitting the fairway versus missing it is on the lower end compared to other PGA Tour courses. I would not categorize the penalty for missing the fairways here as large, unless players are way off line. The fairways are very narrow, but the rough is pretty manageable. Balls skirting into the rough are inevitable and not a death sentence, but very wild drives will result in tree-trouble and forced punch outs. This explains why we will see many players hit less than driver off the tee.
- Paul Casey (2018) and Charl Schwartzel (2016) both won here hitting under 50% of their fairways. John Senden, Jordan Spieth, and Gary Woodland all ranked outside the top-50 in driving accuracy the years they were victorious.
- Ultimately, it’s important to keep the ball in play off the tee at Innisbrook, but remember that most players will be clubbing down. It might be worthwhile to look at at off the tee performances on courses such as TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, and even East Lake: three courses with narrow fairways that take driver out of a player’s hands.
- It’s possible to play well here missing a ton of fairways. Being in the rough just off the fairway is fine, but the woods is a problem.
- Approach
- 34.6% of strokes gained at Innisbrook have come via approach, which is exactly at Tour average.
- This course has been the 9th hardest to gain strokes on approach, compared to other PGA Tour courses. This likely has to do with the fact that 47% of approach shots come from 175 yards plus, and the greens are smaller than average.
- Innisbrook annually ranks inside the top-10 in lowest Greens in Regulation percentage on Tour.
- 24% of approach shots come from between 175-200 yards, and 23% come from 200 yards plus, which are both comfortably above Tour average. All five of the par threes also measure between 195 and 235 yards. The top-10 players in this field in weighted proximity from 175 yards plus are: Viktor Hovland (BY A MILE), Doug Ghim, Charley Hoffman, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Paul Casey, Joaquin Niemann, and Jason Kokrak.
- If I was to encapsulate what makes this course so difficult, Innisbrook is the rare track that takes driver out of a player’s hands, but still forces them to hit long approach shots into the greens. For example, driving distance is well below Tour average, and yet half the approach shots still come from over 175 yards.
- Around the Green
- 14.4% of strokes gained at Innisbrook have come via around the green, which is exactly at Tour average.
- Last year, Innisbrook ranked 32nd out of 40 courses in easiest up and down percentage from the fairway. It ranked 26th in easiest up and down percentage from the rough, and 22nd in up and down percentage from the bunkers. In conclusion, this is not a difficult course around the greens.
- With that being said, players will still need to rely on their short game often, as is always the case on courses with a low Greens in Regulation percentage. Yet the actual degree of difficulty of the shots players have to hit around the greens has not proven to be overly difficult.
- Putting
- 38.1% of strokes gained at Innisbrook have come via putting, which is well above Tour average.
- Innisbrook ranked as the 10th hardest course to course to gain strokes per putt compared to other PGA Tour courses.
- It generally ranks on the harder side in putting inside 15 feet, but lag putting isn’t overly important this week. Here’s a quote I liked from Jordan Spieth, “The greens aren’t very severe here. They can be quick in certain places where they can put pins, but they’re not going to be greens where you really, really worry too much about your speed control. You can be aggressive putting here which is nice.”
- While there is not a ton of slope to these greens, putting is still imperative, and I will be heavier on putting than I was at TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill. Yes, Innisbrook is still a tee to green test, but winners have ranked 5th in putting average compared to 34th in total driving and 18th in greens in regulation.
- Don’t get me wrong, this tournament is not a “putting contest,” but compared to recent courses such as Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Riviera, and TPC Sawgrass, there’s less of a correlation for tee to green, and more of an emphasis on putting.
- Sam Burns won here gaining over 9 strokes putting. It was by no means one of Burns’ best tee to green performances. Tringale finished 3rd gaining 6.4 strokes putting. Ancer finished 5th gaining 9 strokes putting. 17 of the top 18 players on last year’s leaderboard gained strokes putting.
- Each of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the top 12 in putting that week.
- I’ve mentioned courses with similar greens are TPC Sawgrass (2019 on), PGA West, TPC San Antonio, and TPC Scottsdale. Here’s a list of the players that have putted the best at these courses: Brendon Todd, Webb Simpson, Vaughn Taylor, Brian Harman, JT Poston, Patton Kizzire, Alex Noren, Mackenzie Hughes, Harry Higgs, and Chesson Hadley.
- Scoring Stats
- I’ve already mentioned that Innisbrook features one of the hardest sets of Par 5s on the PGA Tour. Top 10 finishers on average have still gained far more strokes relative to the field than they have on the Par 3s and Par 4s. The four Par 5s are the only holes on the course which have historically played under Par. Scoring on these Par 5s will be crucial.
- I know many will be tempted to look at Par 3 scoring on a course with five Par 3s, but I do not find that (or Par 4 scoring) to be a useful or predictive statistic. There are far too many variables (altitude, elevation, hole design, wind, strategy) to draw an actual through-line from these statistics. If we want to identify players that will have an advantage on these five Par 3s that measure between 195 and 235 yards, I would prefer to just look at iron play, with a specific emphasis on that distance range. Looking at certain hole ranges (Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards) is even less predictive. Par 5 scoring is the only hole statistic where we can actually correlate a common skill-set over a large period of time: driving distance, long iron play, short game. Par 3 scoring is inconsistent between short iron play, mid iron play, and long iron play. There is no common through-line. Okay, rant over.
- Course History/Comp Courses
- Innisbrook was on the lower end in terms of the importance of course history, compared to other PGA Tour courses.
- K.J. Choi and Gary Woodland both won on their debut appearances. Sungjae Im and Henrik Stenson were very close on debut as well. Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, and Sean O’Hair all won within their 4th appearance.
- I would not dock a player too much if they have not played here before . Sure, there’s some nuance involved, but we can also garner information from how players have performed on corollary courses.
- East Lake and TPC Southwind are both courses that play between 7,200 and 7,400 yards, feature narrow fairways, sticky Bermuda-grass rough, difficult scoring conditions, and an abundance of mid to long iron shots. The top players in this field at East Lake and TPC Southwind have been Chez Reavie, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, and Luke Donald.
- Sea Island, especially the Seaside Course also features similar agronomy, can play sneaky difficult in the wind, and embodies a similar Carolina feel to it. The best players on the Seaside Course have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Denny McCarthy, Brian Gay, and Sebastian Munoz.
- Harbour Town is a tight, tree-lined, less than driver course, that forces technical approach. Similar to Innisbrook, hitting fairways is non-essential, but the course is all about positioning oneself off the tee on the correct side to have a good angle into small targets. The best players at Harbour Town have been Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, Branden Grace, and Emiliano Grillo.
- Finally, TPC Sawgrass checks a lot of boxes as well. Last week’s venue features very similar agronomy, specifically the over-seeded Bermuda greens. Positioning off the tee, Par 5 scoring, and mid-iron play are all essential at both courses as well. The best players at TPC Sawgrass have been Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Davis Love III, and Tommy Fleetwood.
The Model
- Off the Tee (14%)
- SG: OTT (7%)
- Good Drives Gained (7%)
- Approach (30%)
- SG: Approach (18%)
- Weighted combination of long-term proximity 175 yards plus (12%)
- Around the Green (8%)
- SG: Around the Green (8%)
- Putting (20%)
- Recent SG: Putting (10%)
- Putting at Innisbrook (2%)
- Putting at TPC Sawgrass (2%)
- Putting at PGA West (2%)
- Putting at TPC Scottsdale (2%)
- Putting at TPC San Antonio (2%)
- Scoring Stats (11%)
- Par 5 Scoring (6%)
- Bogey Avoidance (5%)
- Course History/Comp Courses (17%)
- History at Innisbrook (5%)
- History at East Lake (3%)
- History at TPC Southwind (3%)
- History at Sea Island (2%)
- History at TPC Sawgrass (2%)
- History at Harbour Town (2%)
Top 20:
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Justin Thomas
- Webb Simpson
- Viktor Hovland
- Sam Burns
- Collin Morikawa
- Mito Pereira
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Paul Casey
- Jason Kokrak
- Joaquin Niemann
- Adam Hadwin
- Dustin Johnson
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Alex Noren
- Pat Perez
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
Most over-valued based on expected price: Brooks Koepka (48th), Abraham Ancer (27th), Matthew Fitzpatrick (20th), Tommy Fleetwood (50th)
Best values based on expected price: Mito Pereira (7th), Adam Hadwin (13th), Pat Perez (18th), Vaughn Taylor (21st), Sahith Theegala (23rd), Martin Laird (26th), Denny McCarthy (28th), Luke Donald (34th), Wesley Bryan (40th), Alex Smalley (42nd)
Okay! That should do it from the second rendition of my full course breakdown. Please feel free to drop in the comments section your biggest surprises, plus any suggestions for what you would like to hear me spend more time on! The purpose of this article is to give the most in-depth breakdown of each week’s tournament and provide complete transparency in how I am handicapping each event. It’s a work in progress, and the goal is really just to create the most helpful, informative, and digestible break-down around. I can also be found in the RickRunGood slack channel, and I am happy to answer any questions or talk things over in there. Check back in on Wednesday afternoon for my final thoughts article, where I will run through how I have synthesized all this information to create my DFS player pool. You can find me on twitter at @adplacksports, and if you want to hear me ramble more about this stuff, check out Inside Golf Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Good luck and enjoy the golf this week!
– AL
