By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

This week we travel to the Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for the PLAYERS Championship, the flagship event of the PGA Tour. Often dubbed the “fifth major,” the Tour has upped their game this year, increasing the purse to $20 million dollars. This shatters the previous record held by the 2021 U.S. Open ($12.5 million) as the largest purse in PGA Tour history! Part of what makes this tournament so special is its iconic host venue, TPC Sawgrass, home of arguably the most recognizable hole in golf, the island green 17th.

The Basics

Course: TPC Sawgrass
Designer: Pete Dye (1979) with a 2006 re-design (Dye), and a 2017 re-design (PGA Tour)
Hazards: Water comes into play on 17 holes!
Fairways: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Rye and Fescue, measuring 31 yards wide on average
Rough: 2.5 inch Bermuda rough over-seeded with Rye and Fescue
Greens: 5,500 square feet, with TifEagle Bermuda-grass overseeded with Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bent-grass, running 12.5 on average.

2017 Re-design

Before I discuss what matter on this course, I want to spend some time explaining the 2017 re-design completed by the PGA Tour. I don’t expect this to be much of a talking point this week in the industry, but allow me to elaborate on why I believe these changes are so important.

• The course was actually shortened by 26 yards, which mainly comes from the 12th hole, which was changed from 358 yards to 302 yards, and thus made drivable for nearly all players in the field. The 7th and 15th holes were also slightly lengthened
• Spectator mounds were removed between the sixth and seventh holes, and another water hazard was added, mainly just for visual intimidation.
• All of the bunkers were re-built, and the greens made larger on the 1st, 4th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 13th, and 14th holes.
• The biggest change of all was the switch from TifEagle Bermuda to an over-seeded blend of Bermuda. This over-seeded Bermuda can also be found at Innisbrook (Valspar Championship), TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Open), and TPC Stadium Course at PGA West (American Express). In short, its is a way less granular and more shiny surface. You may notice it looks and plays a lot more like Bent-grass than it does Bermuda. If anything, I would argue that this over-seeded type of Bermuda neutralizes putting because it is so pure and features less grain. This theory has been supported by the recent leaderboards, with historically bad putters such as Justin Thomas, Lee Westwood, Corey Conners, Paul Casey, and Sergio Garcia rising to the top. Think about the types of players that win the Valspar and WM Phoenix Open too, Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, etc. Not exactly a murderer’s row of putting specialists.

The other important note that I would pay attention to is the fact that beginning in 2019, this tournament was moved from May to March on the schedule. This is also the main reason why tournament organizers were forced to over-seed the entire course. What does this all mean? With the addition of Rye and Fescue grass into the mix, this rough is now much more manageable and less variable than a true Bermuda rough. Players will be able to control their ball a little bit easier out of the rough and on some of those testy shots around the green. I highlight all of this to say, I would not spend much time over-analyzing this course prior to 2019. There are different green complexes, it’s played at a different time of year, there are different climate conditions, different agronomy, and a different rough blend. This will likely get swept under the rug, but that’s what you come here for! I do think we can use these subtle changes to our advantage by fading prevalent narratives such as course history, and instead, identify players that have performed well on these very unique and specific over-seeded Bermuda surfaces.

Key Stats

• Off the Tee
  • 15.7% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass have come from off the tee, which is right around Tour average.
  • TPC Sawgrass ranks inside the top 10 on Tour in penalty for missing the fairway, meaning the average score for a player that hits the fairway is that much better than those that don’t, relative to other PGA Tour courses. I would argue it’s extremely important to play from the fairway at TPC Sawgrass.
  • Of course, you can still work around that and win here without hitting a ton of fairways. When Rory McIlroy won, he ranked 49th in Driving Accuracy. When Jason Day won, he ranked 51st. When Rickie Fowler won, he ranked 39th. Yet all of the players ranked inside the top-five in greens in regulation, putting, or scrambling. Essentially, if you aren’t hitting fairways, all other aspects of your game must be completely dialed in.
  • Taking all of this into consideration, I wanted to identify players that are elite off the tee on shorter, less than driver courses. I do think hitting the fairway is important here, but since we’ve gone to the Rye-grass rough blend in 2017, it’s a little easier to score from the rough.
  • Some of the best players off the tee players on shorter golf courses over the last two years have been Sungjae Im, Emiliano Grillo, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, Cameron Davis, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Cantlay, and Kramer Hickok. Keep in mind that looking at general driving accuracy statistics will often skew more heavily to how accurate players are with their drivers. Instead, I wanted to find players who are elite off the tee on courses that take driver out of your hands. By the way, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka have been exceptional off the tee on short golf courses, so longer players do often still possess an advantage at courses like TPC Sawgrass because they can hit 2-iron off every tee and still have a wedge in.

• Approach 
  • 38.5% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass have come on approach, which is comfortably above Tour average. You will hear one million times this week about how TPC Sawgrass is all about iron play. I can’t really argue too much with that sentiment, but let’s try and understand why that is the case.
  • Despite the fact that players will not be hitting a ton of long irons, TPC Sawgrass is one of the hardest courses on Tour to gain strokes on approach with. This is largely because these greens are so small. The only courses that were harder last year? PGA National, Bay Hill, and Kiawah Island.
  • TPC Sawgrass is also one of the hardest iron courses inside 150 yards, placing a massive importance on wedge play. The only course to have more difficult shots inside 150 yards? Kiawah Island.
  • There are far more approach shots on average from 75-150 at TPC Sawgrass than there are at other courses. Long irons are still important, and the amount of long iron approaches at TPC Sawgrass is right around Tour average. For this reason, I do believe being a good long iron player really helps, but the scoring is really done inside 150 yards. Over the last two years, the best players inside 150 yards based on a weighted proximity correlated to TPC Sawgrass’ approach shots have been Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Keegan Bradley, and Webb Simpson. Checks out, right? A couple other sleepers that shot up the rankings when isolating wedge play were Henrik Norlander, Doug Ghim, Charley Hoffman, Brian Stuard, and Si Woo Kim. 

• Around the Green
  • 14.4% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass have come around green, which is exactly right at Tour average.
  • Phil Mickelson spoke before about how TPC Sawgrass is really difficult around the green, and the statistics do back this up. TPC Sawgrass has been the 6th most difficult course to gain strokes ARG from the fairway, 9th most difficult course to gain strokes ARG from the rough, and the 6th most difficult course to gain strokes ARG from the bunkers. I doubt short game will get discussed much this week, but I would argue that it really matters around TPC Sawgrass. Unfortunately, if players are forced to rely heavily on their short game, chances are they aren’t in contention to begin with.
  • Scrambling is always a useful stat on Florida golf courses that feature a lot of water. It’s important to identify players that are able to grind out pars when they get de-railed. Si Woo Kim was 1st in scrambling the year that he won. Jason Day was 1st in scrambling the year that he won. Martin Kaymer was 4th in scrambling the year that he won. Tiger was 6th in his victory, K.J. Choi was 7th, and Tim Clark was 7th.

• Putting 
  • 31.4% of strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass have come putting, which is comfortably below Tour average. As I have already alluded to, I would argue this is a course that somewhat neutralizes putting. Lag putting is nearly irrelevant here, and the over-seed has made these greens roll extremely true.
  • Justin Thomas won here last year without putting well. Sergio finished in the top-10 losing strokes putting. Other top-10 finishers such as Lee Westwood, Paul Casey, Corey Conners, and Shane Lowry are far from elite putters. McIlroy won here without a great putting week. Xander Schauffele finished 2nd here losing over a stroke putting. Si Woo Kim won without putting that well, and Poulter finished 2nd that year losing strokes putting as well. The list goes on.TPC Sawgrass is a tee-to-green test through and through.
  • I have already mentioned that TPC Sawgrass features the same type of over-seeded Bermuda as Innisbrook, the Stadium Course at PGA West, and TPC Scottsdale. Here are the players have excelled on this specific surface: Sam Burns, J.T. Poston, Brendon Todd, Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, Beau Hossler, Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, and Brian Gay. 
  • What players putt abnormally poorly on this surface? Harold Varner III, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Sebastian Munoz, Kevin Streelman, and Lucas Glover. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Only three courses had more penalty strokes last year than TPC Sawgrass: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA National, and the Concession. It is inevitable that players will hit it in the water here, which is another reason why Scrambling becomes so important. It’s also one of the reasons I will be looking at bogey avoidance and birdies or better gained. The cool thing about TPC Sawgrass is that every single hole has over an 8% birdie rate and over an 8% bogey rate. One third of the holes also have over a 20% birdie rate, yet nearly half the holes have over an 18% bogey rate. Variance galore!
  • I also want to highlight Par 5 scoring, as I recommend doing every time we are tasked with a Par 72. Every single Par 5 at TPC Sawgrass features over a 30% birdie rate, but they all also posses over an 8% bogey rate, which is very rare. This tournament is often won and lost on these four Par 5s. Top-10 finishers have gained more strokes relative to the field on the Par 5s than they have on the Par 3s and Par 4s.

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • Let’s talk about course history this week. Yes, there are certainly some players that never play well at TPC Sawgrass, but few players possess an immaculate history here either. Xander finished 2nd in his first appearance here, then missed the cut in his next two starts. Francesco Molinari has played here eight times, and recorded four missed cuts, and four top-10s! Rory McIlroy also boasts four missed cuts and four top-10s on his TPC Sawgrass resume. Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama have been the most consistent here over time, but this is not the type of course where players can just show up, regardless of form, and perform year after year. With that being said, outside of Xander, few players show up on their debut and contend because this is a very visually tricky and nuanced course. Essentially, experience matters, but it doesn’t need to be good experience. Kaymer, Kim, Kuchar, and Choi all had zero top-10s at TPC Sawgrass prior to their respective victories, and Tim Clark had never finished better than 30th prior to winning.
  • I actually like TPC Twin Cities as a comp course. The agronomy is different, and the Minnesota layout is more of a driver course, yet both tracks place a large emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee, with a nice mixture of wedges and long irons.
  • TPC River Highlands is another Dye creation that was designed in a similar ethos to TPC Sawgrass. Both courses place an emphasis on driving accuracy and wedge play. I know the agronomy is different, but of all the Dye designs, I found TPC River Highlands and the Stadium Course at PGA West to have the most in common with Sawgrass
  • The Stadium Course at PGA West was designed to be a “West Coast” version of TPC Sawgrass. The agronomy is also the same, and although this course is typically a lot easier than TPC Sawgrass, it probably has the most in common on paper.
  • I was drawn to Innisbrook because it features the same type of greens as TPC Sawgrass. It’s narrow off the tee, positional in it’s nature, and plays with a similar scoring average to what we see most years at Sawgrass.
  • Harbour Town really revs up the positional aspect of TPC Sawgrass, but both are visually deceptive Pete Dye courses that place a large emphasis on driving accuracy and wedge play. It should not come as a surprise to see a lot of crossover on these leaderboards.

The Model 

• Off the Tee (15%)
  • Weighted combination of SG: OTT (5%), SG: OTT on Short Courses (5%), and Good Drives Gained (5%)
• Approach (32%)
  • Weighted combination of SG: APP (20%), long-term proximity 75-100 yards (2%), long-term proximity 100-125 (2%), long-term proximity 125-150 (3%), and Greens in Regulation Gained (5%)
• Short Game (14%)
  • Weighted combination of SG: ARG (6%), Scrambling (5%), and Sand Saves (3%)
• Putting (12%)
  • Weighted combination of SG: Putting (6%), SG: Putting at PGA West (2%), SG: Putting at Innisbrook (2%), SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale (2%)
• Scoring Stats (15%)
  • Weighted combination of Birdies or Better Gained (5%), Bogey Avoidance (5%), and SG: Par 5s (5%)
• Course History/Comp Courses (12%)
  • Weighted combination of course history at TPC Sawgrass (5%), TPC Stadium Course at PGA West (3%), Innisbrook (2%), and Harbour Town (2%)

Here is our Top-20:

1. Jon Rahm
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Justin Thomas
4. Daniel Berger
5. Louis Oosthuizen
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Webb Simpson
8. Sungjae Im
9. Scottie Scheffler
10. Sam Burns
11. Cameron Smith
12. Paul Casey
13. Russell Henley
14. Mito Pereira
15. Xander Schauffele
16. Adam Scott
17. Rory McIlroy
18. Will Zalatoris
19. Shane Lowry
20. Talor Gooch

Which 8K and above players rated out far worse than expected? Rory McIlroy (17th), Viktor Hovland (22nd), Dustin Johnson (30th), Bryson DeChambeau (43rd), Jordan Spieth (78th), Brooks Koepka (77th), Tony Finau (35th), Joaquin Niemann (39th), Billy Horschel (46th).

Best values under 8K? Webb Simpson (7th), Sam Burns (10th), Paul Casey (12th), Russell Henley (13th), Mito Pereira (14th), Talor Gooch (20th), Tom Hoge (23rd), Marc Leishman (25th), Sergio Garcia (26th), Seamus Power (26th).

Okay! That should do it from the debut rendition of my full course breakdown. Please feel free to drop in the comments section your biggest surprises, plus any suggestions for what you would like to hear me spend more time on! The purpose of this article is to give the most in-depth breakdown of each week’s tournament and provide complete transparency in how I am handicapping each event. It’s a work in progress, and the goal is really just to create the most helpful, informative, and digestible break-down around. I can also be found in the RickRunGood slack channel, and I am happy to answer any questions or talk things over in there. Check back in on Wednesday afternoon for my final thoughts article, where I will run through how I have synthesized all this information to create my DFS player pool. You can find me on twitter at @adplacksports, and if you want to hear me ramble more about this stuff, check out Inside Golf Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Good luck and enjoy the golf this week!

– AL