By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather:

I’m not sure how much this is truly going to affect scoring, as the course looks pretty lush, but wind will definitely be a factor this week. I actually think that the 3M Open is going to be more affected by wind than last week’s Open Championship at St. Andrew’s. What a world. Starting at around 11:00 AM on Thursday morning, when all of the AM players will at least be midway through their round, the wind really gets going. It stays pretty steady in that 14 to 16 mph range all throughout the afternoon, with gusts between 17 and 21 mph. Advantage on Thursday: AM tee times. Friday is even more pronounced. From 7:00 AM to 1:00 PM, wind speeds range from 7-10 mph, with gusts between 18-26 mph. It’s hard to say that Friday morning will be more advantageous for low scores than Thursday morning, as while the average wind speed is lower, the maximum gusts are higher. At around 2:00 PM, by the time the average wind speed really gets going, all of the AM players will have been off the course. 2:00 PM to – 5:00 PM looks to be a pretty challenging window, with an average wind speed of 14-16 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph, not to mention a touch of rain. Ultimately, this is a really challenging weather forecast to make a judgement call on, especially because there’s a much larger than normal dispersion between the average wind speed and gusts. My initial thought was that with this much variance, give an edge to the AM/PM wave, because at least we feel comfortable with the fact that Thursday morning won’t be bad. The question to ask ourselves is, which morning will be better, and which afternoon will be better? Thursday morning has a higher average wind speed, but lower gusts. Friday morning has a lower average wind speed, but much higher gusts. I would say that the lower average wind speed is safer (Friday), but either direction could be argued. In terms of the afternoon, Friday is probably a safer bet to be tougher than Thursday afternoon, with similar wind speed and higher gusts. As it stands now, itt’s really tough for me to feel comfortable stacking in either direction or saying definitively that one wave has a distinctive advantage over the other, although with so much variance with the wind gusts, I would understand the strategy of taking a stand on one side and going all in. There’s very little doubt in my mind that wind will play a role in this tournament, I’m just having a difficult time deciphering the extent of how advantageous the edge will be.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Sungjae Im, $10,000 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 18.6%): It’s hard to feel great about going too heavy on any player in this field, but for what it’s worth, I will be significantly over-weight on Sungjae Im this week. My numbers do not suggest there’s much of a difference between Finau, Hideki, and Sungjae this week, and I actually believe that Sungjae is the most under-valued of the three given the misperception around his recent form. Sungjae is coming off an 81st at the Open Championship last week, but he actually hit the ball quite well and lost a whopping 10.4 strokes putting. I would imagine we see some significant positive regression, as a return to slick Bent-grass surfaces should bring him back to life. Sungjae finished 15th here in his only appearance in 2019, and he remains one of the better drivers and mid to long iron players in this entire field.

• Martin Laird, $8,200 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 9.6%): I certainly agree that Martin Laird is a tad over-priced coming off a high end finish at the Barracuda, but of the 17 players above 8.2K, he might be the only player outside of Chez with single digits ownership. I understand the leverage with Chez, but I have an extremely difficult paying $8.7 for him. Laird is a far better course fit in my opinion. The putter is always a massive concern, but Laird remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the entire field, ranking first in good drive percentage over a large sample size. Step one at TPC Twin Cities is keeping the ball in play off the tee, and I trust Laird to do that more than nearly any other player in the entire field.

• Ryan Palmer, $7,900 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 6.2%): Ryan Palmer was a name that actually almost found his way onto my betting card, and I would play him over Gotterup here even if they had the same ownership. Similar to Laird, Palmer does an excellent job of keeping the ball in play off the tee, and he still has above average distance as well. A long-term ranking of number two in long iron proximity really has my attention as well. He’s over-performed at water heavy courses such as PGA National and TPC Sawgrass in the past, and he enters this week on the heels of a 16th at the Scottish Open where he gained strokes in all four major categories. If someone wanted to bet me Palmer vs. Gotterup straight up, I would take Palmer. Add in the fact that Palmer will have one third of the ownership? This is a layup.

• Matthew NeSmith, $7,500 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 9.4%): Not to continue to pile on, but I found it interesting that despite being $400 cheaper on DraftKings, Matthew NeSmith opened up as a -125 favorite over Gotterup in the betting markets. NeSmith immediately got steamed up to -160! Las Vegas gives NeSmith about a 62.5% implied probability to outperform Gotterup, and yet fantasy players are flocking to Gotterup at double the ownership and a heftier price tag than NeSmith. Now why is that? (Insert Brian Whindhost meme) In all seriousness, I actually think that NeSmith is a great play this week. The South Carolina native remains one of the most accurate drivers, middle to long iron players, and Par 5 scorers in this entire field. He’s over-performed at PGA National, and finally started to show signs of life on Bent-grass as well.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There’s only three players in the $10K range, and I actually believe that ownership will be a lot flatter than I had originally expected. When I first started running through ownership on Tuesday morning, it was looking as if Tony Finau would easily clear 30%, while Sungjae and Hideki would both be in the 14-18% ballpark. As it stands now on Wednesday, folks appear to have come to their senses on the prospect of a 30% plus Finau. He will still be the highest owned of this threesome, but 26-28% sounds about right. Sungjae and Hideki will be pretty even. 17-20% feels about right on both players. Skipping Finau to start with Sungjae, Hideki, or both, will not provide the amount of the leverage I had initially hoped for, but Finau is still a fairly safe bet to be the highest owned player on the slate.

• $9K: If Finau is not the highest owned player on the slate, it will be Davis Riley. I actually have Riley currently ahead of Finau right now, at just around 30%. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but many players seem to love the idea of getting the two Davis’ in the same lineup. Cameron Davis, who is also in the 25-28% range, is right below him, and it’s fairly easy to fit Riley and Davis in as your second and third man in if you skip Finau. After Riley, I’d say it’s relatively flat between Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin, and Maverick McNealy, All three of those players should fall somewhere between 17 and 22%, with McNealy on the higher end, and Hadwin on the lower end. There’s truly no way to obtain significant leverage at the top of the slate this week. There are simply far too few players priced above $9K. I do not see a conceivable scenario where any of the seven players above $9K fall below 16% ownership.

• $8K: I’ve already alluded to Cameron Davis’ popularity, and he will be far and away the highest owned player in this range. I have him currently at 28%. I can’t really argue with it. I’m not sure anyone would blink an eye if his price was flipped with Sahith’s. My original projections had him in the $9K range, so there’s a fair argument that he’s under-priced at $8900. Next up would be Cameron Tringale, who I have at 18%. This is a disgusting sentence to type, but I don’t think anyone would have been shocked if Tringale was $9K plus in this field given how he is priced in the betting markets. I understand why people have interest in him at $8800. After Tringale, Brendan Steele, JT Poston, Adam Long, and Nick Hardy should all fall in the 15-18% range, with Steele on the higher end, and Poston on the lower end. I actually think there is a decent chance that a Hardy or Steele could catch some late steam and come in closer to 20%. Steele is going to rate out well in models, and Hardy has been playing some great golf and feels fairly priced at an even $8K. The first opportunity to gain significant leverage on the field would be to play Chez Reavie coming off a win at the Barracuda. The lack of respect for Chez-fest is jarring! There’s a chance that he is the only player above $8K this week under 10%. Wild stuff, but that’s what happens when only 17 players are above $8K. Martin Laird, who also finished top-five at the Barracuda, could be single digits as well. I currently have him at 10%, but that might be too high. Are Chez’s and Laird’s prices an over-reaction to the Barracuda? Probably, but it’s still interesting to me that they seem to be garnering the least amount interest given their recent form.

• $7K: What a massively disgusting range. I guess we should start with Adam Svensson and Chris Gotterup, who will be the highest owned players in this range. I’ve currently got Svensson at 22%, with Gotterup coming in closer to 17%. I initially had both of them higher, but the dust seems to be settling. I think most realize that life is far too short to eat overwhelming $7K chalk on a course where water comes into play on nearly every hole. I currently do not have anyone else in this range clearing 15%, but my next best bet to do so would be Joohyung Kim. 11-13% feels more realistic on him, but there’s still an overwhelming sentiment that he is under-priced give his talent caliber. After that, likely two or three more players will clear 10%, but I have all of them capped at around 13%. Here would be the candidates to be above double digits: Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Matthew NeSmith, C.T. Pan, Wyndham Clark, Troy Merritt, Austin Smotherman, Callum Tarren. My official prediction for the “Wait, why the heck was he so high” award? Wyndham Clark or Callum Tarren. Everyone else in this range not mentioned should be comfortably in the single digits.

• $6K: As I say every week, choose your own adventure down here. This is an incredibly ugly range, and there are no legitimate candidates to hit double digits. Here are some of the names that I’ve heard: Brandon Matthews, Justin Lower, Hank Lebioda. I would still be fairly shocked if any of those three players cleared 6%. With Tony Finau as the highest priced player at $10500, and only three players above $10K, I don’t imagine too many people will go digging down here.

Best of luck this week – AL