By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of TPC Craig Ranch on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Alright, for this week’s segment of “Andy Over-Analyzes the Weather and It Ends up Not Remotely Mattering,” let’s talk about this Texas wind. Thursday morning will see average wind speeds of 8-14 mph, with gusts up to 22 mph. The wind picks up even more in the afternoon, and while the gusts steady, the speed raises to 14-15 mph. We are talking about a difference of 5 mph, but I would still give the edge to the morning wave.

Friday looks to be slightly more benign, with wind speeds of 8-10 mph in the morning, and gusts up to 20 mph. The wind speed stays completely the same from 10:00 A.M. all the way through sunset, but the gusts even quiet down to 13-14 mph. Thus, there is no real advantage on Friday. If anything, it should play slightly more challenging in the morning due to the 16-20 mph gusts. This provides a situation where on both days, the AM/PM wave might have an advantage. Said advantage is certainly more pronounced on Thursday than Friday, but again, it’s something. I did not find this potential edge to be worthy of a full stack, but I am using it as a tie-breaker to help me decide on close calls. I ended up with a player pool that consists of 13 out of 20 players from the AM/PM wave.

Again, this is not financial advise. I am mining for small edges here. I dive into stuff because it has worked before, and it helps me make decisions at the bottom of the board. Nothing more, nothing less.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight relative to the field

• Justin Thomas, $10,600 (Projected ownership: 25.0%) (PM/AM): I’ve already spoken ad nauseam about Justin Thomas on various platforms this week, so I’ll keep it simple. JT was the number one player in my model this week, and I firmly believe that he is the most motivated out of all the elite players. From everything I know about JT, he has to be crawling out of his skin right now for a win. 14 months is embarrassing. He believes he is the best player in the world, and it’s time to prove it. I understand the tune-up argument, but I went back and looked at how elite players have generally performed the week before a major. Spoiler alert: they win all the time. JT has won the week before the PGA Championship twice in the last four years! I actually believe that his game is better suited for easier courses, which explains why he’s overachieved in regular Tour events and underachieved in the majors. Do I love the ownership? No, but I take it as a compliment. Do I love the draw? No. Do I love that he apparently has a new putter in the bag? Nope. That’s probably not great either. The last two questions will keep him out of 100% of my lineups, but he will be in 75% of them!

• Jason Kokrak, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 5.5%) (PM/AM): Jason Kokrak’s ownership is beyond confusing to me. The big Saudi has won twice on Bent-grass, and twice in the state of Texas. He’s actually playing some solid golf right now. The former Charles Schwab Challenge and Houston Open champion gained strokes in all four categories at the RBC Heritage, and he finished 14th at the Masters! 5% on a player of this caliber is an absolute crime. Is it a LIV golf thing? Do people just not like him? I certainly understand all of that, but guess who was a great play last week? Sergio “I can’t wait to get out of here” Garcia. These players still have pride, and now I’m getting a three-time PGA Tour winner and one fourth of the ownership of… Adam Hadwin? Shame on all of you.

• Marc Leishman, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 7.7%) (PM/AM): Another travesty! First of all, I did expect Leishman to be under the radar this week. He missed the cut at 9.7K and barely cracked 5%. Even with a price decrease, I knew he wouldn’t be a popular option. The issue is that the price decrease is a huge overreaction. Hand up, I almost played him at 9.7 last week. I don’t see how I pass at two thousand dollars cheaper. Not only did Leishman gain almost three strokes on approach last week, but we always knew that a course that places a massive emphasis on driving accuracy was going to be an uphill battle for the hefty Australian. Now he travels to a course where he can downright get away with murder off the tee. This is an easy one.

• Luke List, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 7.1%) (AM/PM): The disrespect continues. I joked last week that Luke List was basically Corey Conners with a better short game and more pop off the tee. You can play 30% 10K Corey Conners, I’ll play 7% 7.2K Luke List. I was rooting heavily for List to beat Conners straight up, and he almost came through. List was firmly in the Top-10 all week before fading to a 31st on Sunday. I am far from deterred. List gained over four strokes off the tee, and four strokes on approach, good for his best ball-striking performance since last year’s Barbasol, another wide open, driver heavy, Bent-grass birdie fest! I don’t love the idea of List in a track meet, but A.) I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as people think and B.) He’s been sneakily pretty good in easy scoring conditions, with recent close calls at the John Deere and Barbasol. For the second week in a row, List is one of the most under-priced and under-owned golfers on the slate, and I  will continue to plug him in.

Chalk Report: 

• 10K: I predicted in my Monday podcast that Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Jordan Spieth would all fall somewhere between 18 and 22%, with Thomas on the higher end, and Scheffler on the lower end. It appears that JT has broken away from the back, and I have him trending closer to 25%. In my estimation, one of JT, Will Zalatoris, or Sam Burns will be the highest owned player on the slate. I’m not sure if I see JT getting north of 30%, but 25% feels like a safe bet at this point. Scheffler and Spieth should fall somewhere between 16 and 22%, but I would not be shocked if Scheffler comes in lower than expected. Dustin Johnson is the clear forgotten man, but I would imagine he creeps up to around 12% by week’s end.

• 9K: Will Zalatoris and Sam Burns. There it is. 50% combined for that duo would not surprise me, and that might even be low. Either player can fit with JT, and it’s easy to make one of them the first man in as well. I would even imagine there are many lineups that start Burns – Zalatoris – Niemann, or Burns – Zalatoris – Gooch. It certainly makes sense, and we could see it coming from a mile away. I considered eating the Zalatoris chalk, but he’s on the “wrong” side of the draw, and I just couldn’t stomach a main build of JT – Zalatoris, which is easily the chalkiest start of the week. I don’t think Zalatoris will bomb. His ball-striking is at such an elite level right now that he can finish Top-20 even hemorrhaging strokes on the greens. Last year, he finished T17 losing almost five strokes putting. You just have to ask yourself about upside. Are you happy with a T17 from a 25% Will Zalatoris? What needs to happen for him to make it worth it? Zalatoris is last week’s version of Corey Conners. He’s really safe, and he looks really good in your lineups, but is he winning you a GPP? 25% on a player whose never won before in a really strong field with a lot of win equity at the top is a bit out of hand. Joaquin Niemann is the fascinating one to me. I expected him to be a forgotten man in this range and was genuinely excited to play him. Boy, was I wrong. I have Niemann hovering around 18% right now. I should give mention to Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele, who both feel like safe bets to fall somewhere between 10 and 15%. It looked on Tuesday like there was a possibility that Xander could be sub-10%, but I don’t see that happening. Even Hideki has creeped up closer to 15%. It had to be jarring seeing the disparity in ownership between Burns-Zalatoris and Hideki-Xander, so I’m not surprised that it evened out at least a little. Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka will both certainly be single digits. I thought long and hard about it, but I just couldn’t get there.

• 8K: This is a pretty compact range, with ownership funneling completely to Talor Gooch, Jhonattan Vegas, Aaron Wise, and Adam Hadwin. One of those players will crack 20%, and my guess is that it’s Hadwin. Between 16 and 20 on all four of them seems about right. I could see Gooch sneaking up closer to 20 as the week goes on. I’ve seen him on a ton of betting cards. I’m actually okay eating it with Aaron Wise this week. I had to choose between him and Maverick McNealy (my first two outright bets of the week), and I like that Wise is getting the “better” side of the draw. Despite signs of life from Jason Day, no one seems to trust it. Same thing with Cameron Champ. Back to back Top-10 finishes, with one of them being at the Masters? Nah, let’s play Jhonny Vegas at double the ownership instead! I understand why Adam Scott is hard to click at birdie-fests, but Jason Kokrak is the most puzzling one to me. I have Gooch, Vegas, Wise, and Hadwin north of 16%, and Scott, Kokrak, Day, and Champ sub-10%. Interesting disparity here.

• 7K: This range is a bit of a mess. I could actually see this going in a bunch of directions, but my hunch is that Maverick McNealy is the highest owned golfer in this range at somewhere between 15 and 18%. Then there are a bunch of players that will be in the 9-16 range: Alex Noren, Lanto Griffin, Keith Mitchell, Mito Pereira, Davis Riley, Sebastian Munoz, Sepp Straka, and Kurt Kitayama. The Brian Harman withdrawal is going to hurt Mito, Munoz, and Sepp the most, but it’s not like Harman was super popular to begin with. To be honest, I don’t have a great feel for this range. One of the players I just mentioned will likely be higher than 16 and we will all be surprised. It pains me to say this, but my guess for that would be Lanto. Just remember who was playing him before it was cool. I’m more than happy to sell high on Kurt Kitayama at double digits. That feels a bit problematic to me. Si Woo Kim, Marc Leishman, Tom Hoge, Matthew NeSmith, Patton Kizzire, and Sahith Theegala are all fringe candidates to crack double digits, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about any of them.

• 6K: As is tradition, choose your own adventure down here. I’d be fairly shocked if anyone cracks 7% in this range, but my best guess would be… Austin Smotherman? I think he’s an excellent play and certainly under-priced, but still far too unknown to carry significant ownership in this field. Maybe Hudson Swafford gets some love? Martin Laird might have broken a few too many hearts last week with his free-fall down the leaderboard over the weekend. Anything goes down here.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price):

1. Justin Thomas, $10,600 (Projected ownership: 25.0%) (PM/AM)
2. Hideki Matsuyama, $9,900 (Projected ownership: 15.2%) (AM/PM)
3. Xander Schauffele, $9,700 (Projected ownership: 11.6%) (AM/PM)
4. Talor Gooch, $8,600 (Projected ownership: 16.7%) (AM/PM)
5. Jason Kokrak, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 5.5%) (PM/AM)
6. Aaron Wise, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 18.9%) (AM/PM)
7. Alex Noren, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 12.5%) (AM/PM)
8. Marc Leishman, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 7.7%) (PM/AM)
9. Lanto Griffin, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 14.8%) (PM/AM)
10. Sebastian Munoz, $7,600 (Projected ownership: 10.0%) (AM/PM)
11. Keith Mitchell, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 11.4%) (AM/PM)
12. Bubba Watson, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 2.4%) (AM/PM)
13. Luke List, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 7.1%) (AM/PM)
14. Dylan Frittelli, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 2.0%) (PM/AM)
15. Mackenzie Hughes, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 2.3%) (AM/PM)
16. Charles Howell, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 5.4%) (PM/AM)
17. Sahith Theegala, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 9.1%)  (PM/AM)
18. Patton Kizzire, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 9.4%) (AM/PM)
19. Austin Smotherman, $6,600 (Projected ownership: 5.3%) (Projected (AM/PM)
20. Paul Barjon, $6,300 (Projected ownership: 0.4%) (AM/PM)

Best of luck this week! – AL