By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

For the second week in a row, I will not be playing any weather edge. You could certainly make an argument that Friday morning will see the the most ideal conditions, but even so, we are talking about minute differences here. I wouldn’t even say I see enough to use it as a tiebreaker.

Core 4: The four players I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

With all four players making the cut last week, and three of four finishing in the top-20, let’s keep playing the hits.

• Jon Rahm, $10,300 (Projected ownership: 21.9%): We’re running it back. Jon Rahm was in 75% of my lineups last week, and he rewarded us with a top-five finish. I will be going right back to the well this week, and I may even increase my exposure to 100%. That’s how confident I am. Last week, the disgruntled Spaniard gained 3.3 strokes off the tee and 4.5 strokes on approach. Why is this significant? Well, Rahm has statistically had one of the greatest off the tee seasons since the inception of strokes gained data. That is not a hyperbole, he’s the best driver of the ball in the world and it’s not particularly close. What’s semi-hilarious about this is the simultaneous fact that all he has to show for it is a win at the “Mexico Open” against a bunch of Korn Ferry Tour players. Rahm has wasted one of the great off the tee seasons of all time with sub-standard iron play (and sub-standard short game and putting for that matter). The short game and putting have been worse than his iron play, but that’s actually less surprising to me than his drop-off on approach. It appears that “Eneko’s” Dad has found something though, as his 4.5 strokes gained on approach last was his best iron performance since the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. I wrote last week that Rahm has under-performed to his baseline more than any other elite player this year, and that he was the best candidate to experience positive regression during the final stretch of the season. I also said that if there was one bet on a player I would make to win the FedEx Cup, it would be him. After last week, I’m doubling down even further. Is Wilmington Country Club a great fit for his game? It’s fine. I want Jon Rahm on courses where he has a long iron in his hands as much possible, and I’m not sure that will be the case at Wilmington. I actually believe that Rahm will have a ton of short iron approaches on this course, which is not an area of his game that he typical excels at. At the same time, when mapping out the course, the approach shot distances that he will have at Wilmingtons are not all that dissimilar to TPC Southwind, where he still found a way to finish top-10 in approach. Ultimately, it’s still a better course for him than Southwind. The strategy off the tee here is very similar to Torrey Pines, and I far prefer him on Bent-grass to Bermuda. He’s the number three tee to green player in this field on Bent-grass course with thicker rough, and possesses countless high-end finishes on parkland style golf courses. Similar to Rory at the Open, there isn’t any amount of ownership that would move me off this play.

• Viktor Hovland, $9,200 (Projected ownership: 11.7%): We’re running it back, part two. Again, Viktor was good to us last week, but not too good. Despite a top-20 finish at the FedEx St. Jude’s Championship where he gained 3.6 strokes ball-striking, I am not expecting any significant hike in price or ownership. Viktor is the B+ version of Rahm in many ways. He remains one of the best ball-strikers in the world, and I believe that he has significantly under-performed this season. His issues can be traced completely back to short game, and I’m optimistic about the fact that 8,100 square foot greens will leave him with far more lag putts this week than chips. The last time Hovland was on a golf course with gigantic greens he almost won the Open at St. Andrew’s. Unlike Rahm, Hovland is actually one of the best short iron players in the world as well, and I still believe that he possesses a major advantage on courses with a large plurality of approach shots inside 175 yards. The young Norwegian has now recorded three starts in a row where he’s gained in both ball-striking categories, including over two strokes on approach in all three starts. Hovland is going to end this season in contention for his first big win. It might be this week, or it might be next, but I’ll be there for both.

• Joaquin Niemann, $8,600 (Projected ownership: 14.9%): We’re running it back… part three! Seriously, why not? I liked Rahm, Hovland, and Niemann last week, because despite average course fits, they were all under-valued and under-owned. All three players hit the ball immaculately and finished in the top-20, yet none of them are seeing a significant hike in price or ownership, and now they are traveling to a golf course that suits their games even better than TPC Southwind. Similar to Rahm and Hovland, Niemann is one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, and he’s gained strokes off the tee in every single start since January. Rahm’s ceiling is higher, but not even Grumpy J has been as consistent. Still, winning at Robert Trent Jones courses require elite iron play, and Niemann is coming off a week at the FedEx St. Jude’s where he gained six strokes on approach. His iron play is a little more variable than his off the tee play, but it’s on right now. The two-time PGA Tour winner has gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in three of his last six starts. Now Niemann returns to Bent-grass, and multiple top-five finishes at Detroit Golf Club, third-places finishes at Olympia Fields and Muirfield Village, and wins at Riviera and the Greenbrier, leave me feeling pretty optimistic that the 24-year-old will enjoy his stay in Delaware.

• Si Woo Kim, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 6.3%): I REALLY wanted to slot Sebastian Munoz in here to just run last week’s squad back entirely, but I simply prefer Si Woo more. The former PLAYERS Championship is coming off a 42nd at the FedEx St. Jude’s where he gained 2.3 strokes off the tee, 2.2 strokes on approach, 2.5 strokes around the green, but lost 5.1 strokes putting. That is the exact type of stat-line that I love to see. In full disclosure, there’s nothing really about Wilmington C.C. that screams Si Woo Kim to me. Sure, he’s had plenty of success on tree-lined Bent-grass courses, but he was not jumping off the page to me statistically. However, in a smaller field, where chalk will congregate more below 7.5K, Kim provides the most upside on the board given his price and ownership. I really like Pendrith, Mito, and Grillo, but unfortunately, none of them are a secret this week. Si Woo played the best last week while still managing to go unnoticed. The three-time PGA Tour winner gets written up in this column often because I fully believe that when he’s at his best, he can hang with the best players in the world. Now, we don’t often see his best, but of all the players below 7.5K this week, I would be least surprised if Si Woo was holding the trophy. It’s certainly possible that he finishes dead last this week, but I also know he has an opportunity to win someone a GPP. I’ll take my chances.

Chalk Report: 

• $10K: Unfortunately, Jon Rahm will be the highest owned player above $10K, and the 21.9% I have him projected at might even be low. I know many are of a similar mindset of myself this week, and I would imagine that he will clear 30% in some of the higher stakes contests. In the mini-max and lower stakes contests, I still do not see him crossing 24 or 25%, but I do believe that he ends up as the highest owned in this range regardless of contest. Rory McIlroy will be next, and I have him hovering right around 20%. Justin Thomas will check in just below Rory at a touch under 20%. Zalatoris will be the lowest owned player in this range, but I would not suggest you are picking up significant leverage by starting with Zalatoris. With the amount of back-to-back winners we have seen this season, and the bandwagon that Willy Z has already built up, he will still come in at 15-17%.

• $9K: The $9K range is beefy this week, and I would imagine that some fantasy players will forego the $10K’s completely and jam in multiple players here. Tony Finau leads the charge. I believe that he is a lock to clear 20%, but I’m dubious that he will clear 25%. Finau, Rahm, or Cameron Young, will be the highest owned player on the slate. I am certain of that. After Finau, there is a bit of a drop off, and I actually do not believe that anyone else in this range will cross the 20% threshold. Still, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, and Matthew Fitzpatrick will be in the high teens. I have all three of those players clearing 15%. Sungjae would be my best guess to catch some late steam, as he has been consistently outperforming his price tag at high ownership over the last few weeks. The next group of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, and Joohyung Kim feels pretty flat to me. I believe this entire group will fall somewhere between 17 and 11%, with Morikawa on the higher end, and Burns on the lower end. Burns is the most likely candidate above 9K to come in at single digits ownership, but I’m far from sold on that possibility. My other guess for a player to catch late steam and come in higher than projected? Probably Xander. He always seems to come in higher than projections, and even coming off a bad week, I have him hovering just around 13% at a very palatable price tag.

• $8K: This is the money making range. Cameron Young will be the highest owned in the 8’s, and he might even be the highest owned player on the slate. I’ve got him coming in between 21 and 24%. Unfortunately, Niemann will be next. 15% feels just about right for him, and I’m hopeful (but not necessarily optimistic) that he doesn’t catch any more late steam. Aaron Wise and Corey Conners feel like very safe bets to come in between 11 and 15%. After that, Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott, will all come in at single digit ownership. One of these five players will finish top-ten, one of them could even win, and if you can figure out which one it is, you will have a tremendous leg up this week. Gun to my head, I like Hideki the most, but “Tracking Hideki” reported this morning that the former Masters champion cut his practice round short yesterday. Not ideal, to say the least. It’s an extremely risky play, and I’m not sure if I have the balls to do it. Every single one of these players is low-owned for a reason. Spieth’s rehearsals were back in a big way last week, Lowry just looks tired, Homa’s irons have gone to shit, and Hatton always feels like he’s stuck in neutral. Outside of those playing Niemann, this is a range that many will be skipping, but it also presents the most opportunity.

• $7K: In a 68 man field, there are about half the amount of players in the $6K and $7K range as a normal week, so you’re just going to have to live with the fact that ownership on many of the players down here is double what it should be. Cameron Davis at $7.6K feels like a pretty safe bet to clear 15%, and Taylor Pendrith might as well! I love both of those players this week, but that smells like trouble. After that, Mito Pereira and Davis Riley could also clear double digits. There are going to be more players in the high single digits (Russell Henley, Brian Harman, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala) than we are used to seeing as well. Still, we will always be able to find a plethora of sub-five percent options in this range. Denny McCarthy, Seamus Power, and Maverick McNealy will all be devoid of any ownership.

• $6K: It’s truly disgraceful what’s happening down here. There seems to be an overwhelming sentiment that stars and scrubs builds are better for no cut events because there is zero risk of the lowest priced players missing the cut. This line of thinking is problematic for a number of reasons, but in a 68 man field, it’s simply unavoidable. I’m going to try and write this sentence while keeping down my breakfast: Trey Mullinax might be 15% owned. I present that without comment. There’s no need to pile on. Emiliano Grillo, Scott Stallings, Wyndham Clark, and Taylor Moore, all might clear double digits as well! What a world. Ownership is reflecting an extremely common build of stars and scrubs this week, and there is a clear way to combat this. Pick one stud at the top, pepper the $8K range, and avoid all the $6K chalk by finishing in the low 7s. That would be my advice.

Best of luck this week – AL