By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

The weather this week has certainly become a hot button topic, especially given the fact that the Bermuda Championship has historically been a tournament that has experienced its fair share of variable conditions. Reports throughout the week have been that a tropical disturbance will be passing through Bermuda over the next couple of days, which has led many to be skeptical that this tournament will even be contested. I’ve been monitoring the weather like a hawk over the last few days, and we do appear to be trending towards a reality where this event can be executed from start to finish without any delays. On the whole, the weather looks a lot better as I type this on Wednesday morning than it did a few days ago, or even last night. There will be a bit of light rain on Thursday morning, but the moisture seems to dissipate by 10:00 AM. Players will be treated to overcast skies and mild winds in round one. The wind does not look discernibly worse in the afternoon than it does in the morning, and while the first couple groups on the course may have to play a few holes in light rain, I am not seeing much of a difference in playing conditions for the early versus the later players. Friday looks to be a bit more dicey, but still way more playable than I was expecting earlier in the week. There is the threat of moisture throughout the entire day, but the wind appears to be consistent from start to finish. Saturday and Sunday still look fairly bad, but if framing this conversation through the lens of a potential wave advantage, I’m not really seeing much. The weather has changed a lot throughout the course of the last three days, so do not be surprised if this all gets flipped on its head once again. I still believe that players will face some pretty brutal conditions at some point during this tournament, although it appears more likely that the worst of it will come on Saturday and Sunday, as opposed to Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. On a whole, I’m placing more of an emphasis this week on ball-striking (specifically long iron play) with the expectation that the weekend will still be a grind. With that being said, I struggle to find much reason to play any sort of wave stack. The argument for a wave stack is that the weather will flip again, which is certainly possible. I’m not against the idea of making some lineups completely AM/PM, and others PM/AM, just in case an advantage does come to fruition. Still, my advice would be to not overthink this one too much and search for an edge that doesn’t exist.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

• Aaron Rai, $10,100 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.9%): The more it appears that we see brutal conditions this week, the more it crystallizes to me that Aaron Rai is the clear best option at the top of the board. With two respectable DP World Tour wins, the 27-year-old has far more of a winning pedigree than his similarly priced peers, and his triumph at the 2020 Genesis Scottish Open in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood also came in blustery conditions. If this tournament wasn’t being played in the midst of a tropical disturbance, I would be far more inclined to select elite wedge players who significantly raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. Rai can certainly keep pace in a track meet, but his advantage grows stronger on difficult courses. The Englishman ranks fifth in this field in proximity from 200 yards plus, and while this is a course more generally defined by wedge play, I keep coming back to the two par threes (13 and 17) that both measure 235 yards on the scorecard. I cannot emphasize enough how critical those two shots will be coming down the stretch. While Rai has experienced plenty of success on shorter coastal courses (16th RSM, 15th Mayakoba), his best PGA Tour result to date was a sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines, an execution test that rewards long iron play more than any other course on the schedule. A 19th at the Houston Open, 24th at the Mexico Open, 21st at Royal St. George’s, and 24th at the Memorial show a player that truly does his best work on courses that separate elite from moderate tee to green play. Outside of Thomas Detry, who is coming off the worst ball-striking performance of his career, I simply trust Rai’s ability to execute well-struck golf shots in the wind and rain more than any other player in this range. I don’t believe that Denny McCarthy and Mark Hubbard hit a heavy enough ball to pierce through a tropical disturbance. Detry and Meronk both struck it really poorly in their last start, and Seamus has looked lost for months. One takeaway I had from Ireland is that if you’re playing poorly, you’re not going to “find it” in crappy conditions, and therein lies my concern with Detry and Meronk coming off such poor ball-striking performances. I could have only talked myself into Hubbard or Denny if I knew we were getting calm conditions. The fact that they seem to be garnering the most ownership makes that decision even easier. By process of elimination, we’re all in on Aaron Rai this week.

• Nick Hardy, $9,800 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 10.6%): I actually believe that the $9K range is ripe with great options at palatable ownership numbers, and I had really a challenging time narrowing down my pool. Alex Smalley, Patrick Rodgers, Stephan Jaeger, and Robby Shelton are all really solid plays at their expected price and ownership, but I keep coming back to Nick Hardy. The University of Illinois product is coming off a rock-solid 44th at the Shriners where he gained 2.3 strokes off the tee and 2.8 strokes on approach. The fundamental question I am asking with all my players this week is whether or not their ball-striking can hold up in poor conditions. I have the most trust in Hardy, who has now gained over 2.8 strokes on approach in all three of his starts this fall-swing. A third-place finish at the Bahamas Abaco Classic, a 14th at the Sony Open, a 16th at the Mexico Championship, and 17th at the Emerald Coast show a player who is primed for coastal golf. If we’re sticking with the theme of grinders, Hardy is also the only player in this price range to have finished top-15 at a U.S. Open. The admissable ownership is simply a bonus.

• Lucas Glover, $7,500 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 5.1%): Did you know that Lucas Glover is the fourth highest ranked player in this field? He’s also the only player in this field to have won a major, and one of only a few to have won a standalone PGA Tour event in the last two years. I say that partially in jest, but I do believe that Glover is one of the most mis-priced players in this field, and that his ownership is downright disrespectful. Similar to Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover is one of the few players in this field that I trust to step up on two 235 yard par threes down the stretch and execute a long iron shot in a 20 mph crosswind. I would have been prepared to fade the 42-year-old in a putting contest, but this weather has me spooked, and Glover remains one of the most trustable ball-strikers in this entire field. I’ve done my best to consume some content this week, and I have not heard his name mentioned once. I feel really good about this one, so let’s keep it quiet.

• C.T. Pan, $7,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.9%): C.T. Pan is about $500 too cheap this week, and I’ll gladly go to the wall with one of the more well rounded players in this field. If I’m picking nits about my other core plays, I wish all three had better short games, as missed greens in these conditions is a matter of inevitability. I wanted to make sure I got in at least one player that I trust to get up and down out of wet Bermuda rough, and Pan is one of the biggest risers around the green on Bermuda-grass courses. Running through some of his best performances (1st Heritage, 3rd Honda, 6th RSM, 11th Mayakoba), it’s evident that the 30-year-old does some of his best work on short, windy, coastal, Bermuda courses. A 59th at the Zozo is less than inspiring, but prior to that, the former Presidents Cup member gained 4.5 strokes on approach at the Sanderson Farms. Pan is a great coastal player in solid iron form who can plod his way around this golf course in less than ideal conditions. It’s time for the Taiwanese flag to find itself back atop a leaderboard.

Chalk Report: Ownership break-down for every salary range.

• $10K: I actually think that DraftKings did a really solid job with pricing this week. In previous tournaments with extremely weak fields, we’ve seen DraftKings be hesitant to create a robust top of the slate and price players up. The result has been a conglomeration of ownership at the top, as players are still going to use their salary despite not having very many options to choose from. This week, there are 15 players priced above $9K, which is actually more than a regular tournament. One could make an argument that many of these players are over-priced, but it gives fantasy players more options, which in turn, leads to flatter ownership. Of the six players above $10K, I do not foresee any emerging as overwhelming chalk. Denny McCarthy would my best guess to garner the most ownership, but I have him capped around 18-19%. Thomas Detry and Mark Hubbard will be right behind him, falling somewhere between 15 and 18%. I have Seamus Power and Aaron Rai in the low double digits, and I believe that Adrian Meronk will be comfortably in the single digits, and potentially closer to 5% than he is to 10%.

• $9K: Similar to the $10K range, we should not expect a single player to emerge as inordinately popular. I have Russell Knox as the highest owned player in this range, but there are a few other candidates that could easily overtake him. I actually haven’t heard a ton of Russell Knox chatter this week, or seen him on a great deal of betting cards, but due to some impressive course history, he still feels like an easier click than many of the other names in this range. Still, I have Knox coming in at around 17.5%. After Knox, there are five players that I have coming in between 17 and 12%: Justin Lower, Patrick Rodgers, Alex Smalley, Greyson Sigg, and Stephan Jaeger. If forced to choose one player that could catch some late steam and creep up to Knox, I would probably go with Smalley. Still, I do not see much of a discernible difference between these five options. I have Nick Hardy, S.H. Kim, and Robby Shelton coming in just below this group, somewhere between 8 and 12%.

• $8K: My Tuesday morning numbers suggested that Callum Tarren could come in at an exorbitantly high number, but cooler heads seem to have prevailed. I still have Tarren as the most popular option in this range, but I would be surprised if he cleared 17.5%. Adam Long, Adam Schenk, and Brandon Wu should all clear double digits, but I doubt that any pass 15%. The final six players in this range: Nick Taylor, Will Gordon, Byeong Hun An, Austin Eckroat, Michael Gligic, and Erik Van Rooyen will all fall somewhere between 5 and 12%, with Gordon on the higher end, and Taylor on the lower end. I have Gordon coming in at around 9%, but I’m not sure I totally trust that number. He’s a popular bet this week, which usually translates to higher ownership. Gordon would be my best guess of a player that comes in three to five percent higher than his projections. In most tournaments, the $8K range can turn into a dead-zone. It’s a range that gets completely squeezed with any type of stars and scrubs build. As was the case last week, I would definitely recommend taking a chance with a few of the lower owned options in this range.

• $7K: The $7K range of weaker field tournaments is generally where we start to see some really unbecoming chalk. This is where the average player tends to get lost and relies more on podcasts and articles. I have written up and discussed my love for Chesson Hadley on multiple platforms this week, but I might have made a deal with the devil on that one. 15% is a real possibility, in which case, I would run rather quickly in the other direction. Similar deal with Ben Griffin, the number one player in my model this week. I have heaped loads of praise on to Griffin this week, but I’ve been disheartened to see him veer towards 12% or 13%. But how could you fade the two players you’ve been all over this week?! It’s simply a matter of opportunity cost. $7K chalk at the Masters is far different from $7K at the Bermuda. A popular $7K Corey Conners incurs less of a risk because Conners is a good player. Hadley and Griffin aren’t good players. They may be the lesser of two evils, but life is far too short to eat $7K chalk at the Butterfield Bermuda. Some other buzzy names this week that could veer towards double digits are Cameron Percy, Sam Ryder, Harry Hall, Ryan Armour, Garrick Higgo, Kevin Yu, and Hank Lebioda. Do not be surprised if any of these players clear double digits, but I have a hard time suggesting that any will come in at grotesque numbers.

• $6K: I’m really not seeing much down here. There are no clear mis-prices or victims of groupthink. With 15 players priced between $10.4K and $9K, balanced appears to be the building strategy this week. One could argue that Chad Ramey is under-priced at $6.9K, but there’s only an outside chance that he finds himself anywhere close to double digits. Brian Gay might get some love from the course history truthers, but I would still be surprised if he clears 7%. As always, choose your own adventure down here!