By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Colonial on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and more dramatically, the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

I will be curious to see if there’s a flop lag regarding the weather this week. Many under-estimated the wave advantage at the PGA and got burned. I would imagine that many look more deeply into the weather this week on that factor alone. I honestly don’t see a ton here. As it appears now, Thursday and Friday should be relatively calm, with a ton of wind over Saturday and Sunday. As it relates to a potential wave advantage, the AM/PM players will see an average wind speed of 8 mph, with gusts between 9 and 14 mph across two days. The PM/AM players will see an average wind speed of 8 mph, with gusts between 9 and 20 mph across two days. I’m not really seeing much here. I could be talked into the idea of a slight advantage for the AM/PM players, as there will be heavy-ish gusts on Friday morning, but I will not be factoring in a potential wave advantage into my decision making process this week.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Viktor Hovland, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 21.2%): I was a bit dismayed to see Hovland’s ownership this week. He wasn’t very good last week on another Perry Maxwell course at Southern Hills, he’s only played Colonial once, and I haven’t spent any time pumping him up on podcasts this week either. I haven’t been able to consume as much content thus far as I usually do, but I haven’t heard a ton of people picking him to win either. I’ve back-checked this ownership a couple times this morning, and he keeps coming in over 20%. My guess is that this can only be explained by the fact that Jordan Spieth is so cheap. Since Spieth is only 10.4K, this allows players to pair him with Hovland or Morikawa pretty seamlessly, especially because the 6K range is strong this week as well. Overall, Hovland is my pick to win this tournament, and I’m still willing to ride with him and get different in other places farther down the board. I don’t believe that his short game is going to kill him here, and on a course with a high plurality of iron shots between 125-200, he remains right up there with Thomas and Morikawa as the best in the world, despite rarely being mentioned in that class. This may not feel like a Hovland course, but he’s won twice at Mayakoba, a golf course with easy chipping surrounds that takes driver out of your hands. I actually still believe that Hovland will be able to take advantage of Colonial off the tee. We saw Jason Kokrak play extremely aggressive here last year, cutting the corner on many of the doglegs. Colonial is getting a massive Hanse restoration in 2023 due to the fact that the course has become a bit outdated due to modern technology. I actually feel that Hovland can dominate off the tee here, rely on his elite short iron play, and not get tripped up around these relatively benign and straightforward green-side areas. Hovland will be in upwards of 60% of my lineups this week.

• Tony Finau, $9,100 (Projected ownership: 12.9%): Tony Finau ends up in way too many of these Core fours, but that’s generally because I’m bullish on him long-term and he never comes in as over-whelming chalk. After Hovland, Finau was the second player that I bet this week. He was solid at Southern Hills, gaining strokes in all four major categories. Ever since the disaster of the first two rounds in Mexico, Finau’s putter has looked markedly better. He’s now gained strokes putting in back to back starts, and I’ve always felt that Bent-grass was the surface where he should primarily deployed. I didn’t get a chance to do much Colonial content this week, but what I would have spent the most time harping on is that this is no longer the short, positional golf course that it has proven to be over the last couple of decades. Why is Gil Hanse is about to begin a massive restoration? Kokrak showed us the roadmap last year for long and accurate drivers, gaining over six strokes off the tee. I actually think Finau may have cracked the code off the tee here as well, gaining over 3.5 strokes off the tee in four straight starts at Colonial. If his putter cooperates, I believe he will be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

• C.T. Pan, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 7.1%): I actually think Pan is a slam dunk this week. I don’t believe he is totally sneaking up on anyone, but Tom Hoge feels like a relatively safe bet to come in at double the number of Pan. The former RBC Heritage winner has an extremely strong resume at short, positional golf courses, with Top-fives at the Wyndham, RSM, as well as a third-place finish here at Colonial in 2019. He’s an incredibly accurate driver of the ball, and while I don’t believe he has the ability to dominate this course off the tee in the same vein as Hovland and Kokrak, the alternative roadmap to success at Colonial is hitting every single fairway, which Pan is fully capable of. He’s excellent between 125-200 yards, and his game appears to be peaking just at the right time. In his last start at the Wells Fargo, he gained strokes in all four major categories for the first time in over a year. He’s made five cuts in a row, and developed a relatively high floor given his consistency across the board in all four major statistical categories.

• Lucas Glover, $6,700 (Projected ownership: 5.2%): Lucas Glover is a slam dunk here at this price, and while he will one of the highest owned players in the 6K range, I still cannot envision a scenario where his ownership becomes overly concerning. In his last two appearances at Colonial, Glover has finished 23rd and eighth. He hits a ton of a fairways, and consistently gains off the tee despite possessing below average distance. He’s arguably the best middle to short iron player in this field at this price point, and he’s coming off a week at Southern Hills where he gained seven strokes on approach. The ball-striking has been so consistently strong that he’s also developed a high floor. Glover has made nine of 12 cuts this year, which is a high percentage for a 6K golfer. Very few players in this range have also shown recent winning upside, and we are less than a year removed from Glover’s victory at the John Deere Classic. I’m comfortable with his floor, and Top-30 finishes in both majors this year displays a player that is in class above his similarly priced peers.

Chalk Report: 

• 10K: Jordan Spieth still feels like the clear top dog in this range, and for good reason. His history at Colonial is immaculate, and despite a faulty putter, this is the best he’s driven the ball in years. Still, with a multitude of appealing options in this range, I do not see Spieth nearing 30%. 24% to 28% feels about right. Two more players in this range are expected to clear 20%, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland. To be honest, this surprises me. I was expecting an ownership break on at least one of those players given their disappointing showings last week at Southern Hills. In trying to understand the ownership, I think this all comes down to Spieth being so cheap. Since Spieth is only 10.4K, it’s incredibly easy to plug him in next to Morikawa and Hovland. Not to mention the fact that the mid to low 6’s is stronger than normal this week. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas will be under-owned this week. Both should fall somewhere between 11 and 16%. There’s certainly some leverage to be gained by starting lineups with either of those players, and skipping Spieth, Hovland, and Morikawa entirely. Will Zalatoris should actually come in even lower than Scheffler and Thomas. The entire group of Thomas, Zalatoris, and Mito Pereira will go under-owned. Very few people are bullish on their chances of a repeat performance.

• 9K: Only six players occupy the 9K range this week, and with so many folks pairing Spieth with a Morikawa or Hovland, this feels like a logical zone to skip. With that being said, people are still finding room for Abraham Ancer and Max Homa. Both are pretty safe bets to clear 15%, but neither will hit 20% either. Outside of Homa and Ancer, I would predict relatively flat ownership across Burns, Finau, Berger, and Sungjae. I actually have all four of those players coming in between 9 and 16%. An interesting way to build would actually be jamming two of three of these guys in the same lineup and completely fading the 10K range and above. I actually really liked the way some of my lineups turned out when I started Sungjae-Finau-Gooch.

• 8K: The 8K range got somewhat turned upside down with the withdrawals of Bubba Watson and Bryson DeChambeau. Not that either of those players were going to garner a great deal of ownership, but even more ownership should now condense around Kevin Na, who sits right in between those two. Na feels like a really safe bet to clear 15%, but 20% would surprise me. Outside of Na, it appears that real estate prices are soaring on Tommy Fleetwood island. Regular readers know that I have been playing Fleetwood before it was cool, but he’s no longer a secret. I would be weary of that. Webb Simpson is the interesting one to me. I have him hovering around 10%, which I actually thought would be much higher given the fact that Colonial is a typical Webb course, and he actually showed signs of life at Southern Hills. He might be a candidate to come in higher than all of the projections. I thought there was a chance that Davis Riley would be mega chalk, given his three top-15 finishes in a row and some gaudy ball-striking numbers at the PGA, but it doesn’t appear that he will clear 15%. Talor Gooch, Jason Kokrak, Mito Pereira, and Billy Horschel should all fall somewhere between 7 and 13%, with Gooch on the higher end, and Mito on the lower end.

• 7K: The high 7K range is loaded with appealing options this week. Gary Woodland, Chris Kirk, Harold Varner, Brian Harman, Sebastian, Munoz, and Justin Rose should all clear 10%. Since they are all bunched together, I do not see one player emerging as the clear highest owned option. I think it will vary across contests. I’m sure in certain contests, Kirk will be the highest owned of this group. In other contests, it will be Varner or Harman. My guess is that Rose and Woodland will be on the lower end of this group, falling closer to 10%, while Kirk, Varner, Harman, and Munoz could all come in between 14 and 18%. Even Tom Hoge at $7.6K is going to get a lot of run here. Bezedenhout is the clear pivot play in this range at about 5%, and you bet that I will be there. Once we get past Hoge, the low 7s will be pretty flat. My guess is that C.T. Pan and Matthew NeSmith emerge as the highest owned players between 7.5K and 7.0K, but I would be surprised if either cleared double digits.

• 6K: For the first time in what feels like forever, a clear option has emerged in the 6K range. Austin Smotherman at 6.3K is criminally under-priced. With that being said, many casual players either A.) still don’t know who he is or B.) tend to not even consider players this low in the pricing. I could imagine in higher stakes contests that he will still clear 10% because anyone who is running a model is going to see him as a massive value given his price point. Unfortunately, I don’t think I will be alone on Lucas Glover either. As one of the best approach players in the field last week at Southern Hills, most folks that spend time looking at numbers will notice the ideal combination of strong recent form and equally intriguing course fit for the former U.S. Open champion. This is actually a really strong range in my opinion, and I would imagine that more people will take some shots down here than other weeks. I actually believe that there are multiple options below 6.7K that are absolutely playable. A few other names that I’ve heard down here are Russel Knox, Adam Long, Kevin Streelman, Doug Ghim, Rory Sabbatini, J.T. Poston, and Kurt Kitayama. None of those players will hit double digits, and many of them won’t clear 5%, but this is a surprisingly strong range when placed in context with other weeks.

Best of luck this week! – AL