By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

The idea of a potential tee time advantage gets thrown for a loop in a limited field event with staggered tee times, but the fact that there is not a breathe of wind in the forecast this week makes our job even easier. Weather should not play any factor in our decision making process this week.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

• Jon Rahm, $10,900 (Projected ownership: 22.5%): I spoke this week on the podcast about how outside of Rory, Jon Rahm would be my number one draft pick to have a Scottie Scheffler-esque 2023. I have been pretty tough on Rahm over the years, and I maintain that he is a tough player to evaluate. In my opinion, he was vastly over-rated heading into last season, and I do not believe that he is a generational talent who will accomplish as much as a Rory McIlroy when it’s all said and done. With that being said, after some expected regression last season, I’m expecting a big year out of the grumpy Spaniard. He got off to wonderful start last week, beating up on a bunch of third graders as a 2/1 favorite at the Open de Espana. Rahm gained a robust 10.1 strokes ball-striking and seven strokes putting in a dominating performance. Still, he is certainly aware of the insignificance of that type of win, and it’s time to step up against the world’s best. I love Jon Rahm on golf courses where he will have a long iron in his hands as much as possible, and nearly 50% of all approach shots at Congaree come from over 175 yards. Outside of Viktor Hovland, Rahm remains the best long iron player in this entire field from a statistical standpoint. Yet the ball-striking has never been the issue for the former U.S. Open champion. Last year, Rahm wasted a historically great off the tee season because he was downright incompetent at times on and around the greens. The 28-year-old has now gained over four strokes putting in four consecutive starts, and his ball-striking hasn’t missed a beat either. Such necessary improvements with the flat-stick raises Rahm’s floor significantly, and I would be fairly surprised if he does not find himself in the mix on Sunday afternoon in South Carolina.

• Hideki Matsuyama, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 5.8%): Hideki Matsuyama’s price and ownership is perplexing, to say the least. I wouldn’t have been the least bit surprised if he was over $9,000, and he’s definitely too cheap at $8,700. For obvious reasons, under-priced players garner more ownership, but that is not the case with the former Masters champion this week. My only explanation is the players that he is surrounded by. Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry all remain fairly popular options, and building strategies this week do seem to squeeze the $8K range in general. Still, the lack of interest in Hideki this week is entirely disrespectful. The three main boxes that I am looking for my players to check at Congaree are above average distance, long iron play, and a crafty touch around the greens on firm golf courses. Hideki is one of the few players in this field to check all with flying colors. Maybe there is some disappointment surrounding his ho-hum 40th-place finish last week at the Zozo Championship as an extremely popular option, but going right back to him the next week at a depressed price and ownership is DraftKings 101. I understand the risk involved, but the withdrawal potential is more than basked into his price, and this has slate breaker written all over it.

• Brian Harman, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 8.0%): While never a sexy pick, Brian Harman continues to deliver. The main concern is that he is one of the shorter players in this field, but a lack of distance didn’t stop him from nearly winning the U.S. Open on a firm and fast 7,700 yard Erin Hills. The University of Georgia product fits the Patrick Reed mold of a player that despite featuring below average driving distance, never lowers his strokes gained baseline on longer courses. There are multiple reasons for this, but what really sticks out to me is how capable Harman is with his long irons. He’s also had a ton of success on courses with a low greens in regulation percentage because he possesses one of the best short games in the world. The 35-year-old is coming off a quietly strong 15th-place finish at the Shriners where he gained 2.1 strokes off the tee and 2.9 strokes on approach. Priced right in between two fairly popular options of Aaron Wise and Tom Hoge, Harman is the sharp play.

• Kurt Kitayama, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 5.9%): Kurt Kitayama has been jumping off the page to me this fall swing, and I’m a bit surprised that he isn’t garnering more buzz this week, as he now travels to a golf course that should fit his game to a tee. The 29-year-old is the only player in this field outside of Cameron Young, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas to rank top-10 in this field in both driving distance and long iron play. We want Kitayama on long, wide open, firm courses such as Vidanta Vallarta and the Renaissance Club where he can separate himself via his length. I don’t love the fact that he played in Tokyo last week, but I always look to target players that improve as the week goes on, and Kitayama is coming off a sterling Sunday 65 at Narashino. I like Keith Mitchell just as much as the next guy, but in Kitayama, we’re essentially getting the same statistical profile, in better form, at less than half the ownership.

Chalk Report: Ownership break-down for every salary range.

• $10K: With the four-man quartet of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Justin Thomas, the $10K range is as stacked as ever this week. It’s an extremely difficult group to fade entirely, as these would be my top-four draft picks in a season long fantasy draft. Coming in at around 24%, Rory McIlroy does appear to be the most popular option, and I have a difficult time arguing with the love. Rory has a downright immaculate record on Fazio courses, with multiple wins at Quail Hollow and a win at the Summit Club last year. If we want to talk wide-open Carolina golf courses framed by expansive sandy waste areas and short grass, he won the 2013 PGA Championship at the Ocean Course by a robust eight strokes. Jon Rahm will be right behind Rory at somewhere between 20 and 23%, and as alluded to in my core plays section, his case is nearly just as strong. Scheffler and JT will both come in at fairly palatable numbers. I would be surprised if either crosses 20%, and Scheffler might actually be sub-15%.

• $9K: In an extremely strong limited field event, I’m not sure there is a player in the $9K range that will really separate himself from an ownership standpoint. I actually believe that ownership will be fairly close between Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, and Viktor Hovland. I have all three players coming in between 15 and 19%. Sam Burns, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa will come in just below. I have Homa at 16%, Morikawa at 13.5%, and Burns at at 13%. Skipping the $10K range is certainly ballsy this week, but there are enough truly unassailable options here for me to at least present the option of jamming in three $9K players as a way to get unique.

• $8K: While I do not believe that any of the players priced above $9K will come in at single digits ownership, the $8K range certainly provides some interesting leverage opportunities. While the field is too balanced for any single player in this range to completely fall victim to group-think, I expect Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, and Shane Lowry to garner the most ownership. I have all three players checking in between 12 and 16%, so no real major red flags there. As previously alluded to, the idea of an extremely balanced build has my attention this week. I have Keegan Bradley, Taylor Montgomery, Sahith Theegala, Billy Horschel, and Corey Conners all coming in at sub-10% ownership. I think you’re foolish to not at least take a chance on one of those five players. This is the first event all fall swing where Taylor Montgomery is actually coming in at a playable number, and while over-priced, Sahith is completely getting squeezed despite an encouraging fifth-place finish at the Zozo. Despite a decent performance last week at the Zozo, the public sentiment on Corey Conners is still in the gutter, No one believes that Keegan can play well two weeks in a row, and despite this being a South-eastern Bermuda course, Horschel is completely out of sight and out of mind as well. A nice range to take some chances.

• $7K: The $7K range is generally where the limited field really starts to affect ownership, as there will be close to half of the amount of players in the sevens and sixes this week as in a normal event. While ownership certainly amalgamates more in this range, the only player that is truly coming in at an untenable number is Keith Mitchell. I have the University of Georgia product coming in right around 15%. That number is far too high, but I’m certainly not here to disparage the idea of him in this spot. Mitchell is an extremely poor man’s Rory, who has been stellar at both Quail Hollow and the Summit Club. He should be right at home this week on a driver-heavy, Fazio designed Bermuda course. The other players that will certainly cross double digits are Aaron Wise, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, and Mito Pereira. I have all four coming in somewhere between 11 and 15%. All are playable, but we can assuredly identify appealing pivots as well. A few other candidates to cross the 10% threshold are Cameron Davis, Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman, Andrew Putnam, and Sepp Straka. Things really start to flatten out after that.

• $6K: We generally see more cheap chalk congregate in limited field events, as players are guaranteed all four rounds, which encourages a less risk averse approach at the bottom of the slate. With that being said, there are no blatant mis-prices this week, and I would be surprised if any player in this range cracked double digits. Harris English, Trey Mullinax, Davis Riley, and maybe Gary Woodland will garner more ownership than their peers, but none are coming at irresponsible numbers. In my opinion, Riley and Woodland are the two most mis-priced players in this range, but I’m not sure that public sentiment is with me on that one. As always, choose your own adventure down here. I’ve given mention to the concept of an extremely balanced build this week, but the strength of this range also presents an interesting counter-strategy of jamming a Rory and JT in together, and exercising more liberalness at the bottom of the slate.