By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

I’m not seeing much here. All I will say as it pertains to weather is that the area did get a ton of rain on Tuesday night, and there will be even more showers on Wednesday. The course will probably play longer and softer than in years past. In terms of handicapping, I would give more of a bump to statistics such as carry distance and long iron play. I expect it to firm up as the week goes on, but on Thursday and Friday, there will still be moisture on the fairways, greens, and rough.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most overweight on relative to the field

• Jon Rahm, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 9.6%): This is a blind bet on a player that I believe has under-performed (compared to his baseline) more than any of the other elites this year, experiencing some positive regression to end the season. It’s been an extremely forgettable year from the ill-tempered Spaniard, but I’m not convinced that he will go silently into the night. This next three week stretch is Rahm’s last chance to prove that he still belongs in the conversation for the world’s best in the world until… basically Torrey Pines 2023. Rahm’s “under” performance is all relative too. With 10 top-25s in 15 starts, it’s really not as if he’s been playing all that poorly. For what it’s worth, Ram is the only player on Tour who hasn’t missed a cut this year, and I still believe that he possesses the highest floor in golf. Is TPC Southwind a perfect fit for his game? No, I don’t think so, but it’s not a bad fit either. I love the fact that the golf course has gotten a ton of rainfall this week and should play softer, hopefully providing Rahm with more long irons, an area of his game where he tends to separate. He still remains the best driver of the golf ball in the world, and despite a ho-hum 34th at the Open, only Rory McIlroy drove the ball better than the former U.S. Open champion at St. Andrew’s. TPC Southwind is a golf course that serves elite drivers of the ball, as evidenced by the amount of success that Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson have experienced here. Accuracy is more important than distance at Southwind, but Rahm remains incredibly accurate for how long he is as well. He’s finally priced correctly, and the ownership should remain in tact. Grumpy J will be in close to 75% of my lineups this week.

• Viktor Hovland, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 12.7%): I initially had Jordan Spieth slotted in here (and I will still be playing my fare share of Spieth), but hearing about the amount of rainfall that this golf course has received, I’ll probably end up with more exposure to Hovland. If you’re noticing a theme, that’s intentional. All of the stuff that Rahm does well (total driving, long iron play), Hovland excels at too. Yes, softer conditions mean that it will be easier to hit fairways because the lack of roll out, but it also means the penalty for wayward driving will be even greater. Moisture will make the already gnarly Bermuda rough even more unpredictable. Also, less roll-out in the fairways will make the course play longer, and Hovland remains one of the best long-iron players in the entire world. Similar to Rahm, I also believe that Hovland has under-performed this season, and I expect both players to make a serious charge in the next couple of weeks. It’s hard to believe that the Norwegian still hasn’t won on U.S. soil, or recorded a non-fall swing PGA Tour win. He checked off the box of contending in a major championship earlier this year, and now it’s time to get on the board in a legitimate tournament. The price is fair, and the way people are building this week, I don’t foresee him crossing the 15% threshold.

• Joaquin Niemann, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 7.8%): At this point, you’ve probably caught on to the fact that I’m all in on the idea that this course is going to play soft and long, thus placing a greater emphasis on powerful driving and long iron play. Niemann is getting squeezed in this field for no good reason other than who he is priced around, it’s not as if he has been playing poorly. The Chilean is coming off a strong ball-striking performance as the Open, and he’s still experienced plenty of success on Bermuda-grass greens. I guess my only concern with Niemann would be the LIV smoke. I feel pretty confident that he’s as good as gone, but if we’ve learned one thing about the LIV defectors, it’s that money is their North Star and guiding principle. I have a hard time believing he’ll be any less motivated to win the FedEx Cup. If I had to make a guess, Cam Smith made his LIV decision before winning the Open Championship. I’ve never been a Cam Smith guy, but I’m a huge Niemann fan. I will die on the hill that he’s better at golf than Will Zalatoris, but I guess we’ll never know.

• Sebastian Munoz, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 4.9%): I really like this golf course for Sebastian Munoz, and similar to my other three core plays, he packs a powerful punch off the tee and is one of the best mid to long iron players in his price range. I love playing guys that are coming off a missed cut on the number, but still gained in both ball-striking categories. Munoz fits that bill. The Colombian’s one win on the PGA Tour came at the Country Club of Jackson, another course with an extremely warm climate, sticky Bermuda-grass rough, and Champion Bermuda-grass greens. With all of the rainfall, TPC Southwind will now actually play even more like the Country Club of Jackson. Brendan Steele, Cam Davis, J.T. Poston, Chez Reavie, and Scott Stallings appear to be sucking up all the ownership in this range. Outside of Davis, I think Munoz is a better player than all of them, and he’ll be coming in at a fraction of the ownership.

Chalk Report 

• $10K Range: My initial prediction was that Justin Thomas would be the highest owned player on the slate. I feel that of the elite players, he is the most mis-priced at $10,200 when taking course fit into account. Interestingly enough, I only have him in the 15-17% range. Rory McIlroy will still end up as the highest in this range, and potentially the highest on the slate. I was skeptical that Rory would garner this much ownership as the highest price player, but he has been the most consistently great player this year. I have him coming in right around 20%. After that, it will be Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Cameron Smith, in that order. Honestly, none of those players will clear 20% and are all great options. It seems like many are still starting lower and jamming multiple $9K players into the same lineup. I have Scottie at 16%, Xander 15%, Cantlay 13%, Rahm 10%, and Smith 7%. Rahm and Cantlay might end up swapping. I wrote up Rahm and people will look at his potential to be single digits and jam him in it at the eleventh hour, but even so, I don’t foresee a universe where he clears 14% at maximum. With Cam Smith essentially as good as gone to LIV, there’s a real opportunity there, if you are willing to get past personal bias and frustration.

• $9K Range: Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau will both challenge Rory for the highest owned player on the slate. I actually understand the Finau love (even though he lowers his baseline somewhat significantly on Bermuda) more than I get the Zalatoris love. Zalatoris being overwhelming chalk on this golf course feels like bad groupthink and people just trying to will the guy to victory. I keep hearing that this is a great course fit for Zalatoris… are we sure about that? I have considerable concerns about his ability to hit fairways. This course is far more like Sedgefield (where everyone last week said he was a bad course fit), than it is like Torrey Pines. I hope people realize that. Actually I don’t, please play him. Zalatoris and Finau will both hover in that 18-21% range. After that, Fitzpatrick will come in between 14 and 16%, and then there’s a nice opportunity in the low 9s with Cameron Young, Jordan Spieth, and Viktor Hovland. I would guess that Hovland will be the highest of the bunch, but I don’t foresee him clearing 14%. Young and Spieth will both just clear double digits, but I would be shocked if either sneaks past 12%. Especially if it plays softer, Zalatoris being nearly double Cam Young is looney tunes. I don’t understand how we’ve come to the conclusion that this is a good Zalatoris course but a bad Cam Young course. There’s zero logic in the ownership discrepancy between those two.

• $8K Range: I would argue that Collin Morikawa is the most under-priced player on the board, and while I’m sure some would agree with me, he will not be highly owned. 12ish percent feels just right for Collin. Sungjae Im and Sam Burns will both make a run for the highest owned player on the slate. Both will challenge Rory, Zalatoris, and Finau in that 18-22% range. I understand Sungjae far more than I get Burns, who can’t keep the ball in the fairway and only made the playoff here last year because he gained a bajillion strokes putting (just like Cam Smith, for that matter). People assume these players are great course fits because of a one tournament sample size where they putted significantly over their baseline. It’s incredibly short-sighted. Anyway, this range is getting a lot of love in general. If you’re starting Zalatoris/Finau, you can still pepper this range nicely, and if you’re starting Rory, you can still jam some players in here as well. Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, and Joohyung Kim will both fall somewhere between 12 and 17%, with Kim on the higher end of that, and Lowry and Horschel on the lower end. Hideki Matsuyama and Joaquin Niemann certainly present some nice leverage, as I have both in the high single digits.

• $7K Range: As always, this is a pretty big range, so I’ll list out the names that you have to consider ownership with: Russell Henley, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Scott Stallings, Brendan Steele. Compared to their peers, those players will be significantly higher owned. My prediction for the “How did he come in way higher than the projections” award would be Russell Henley. I’ve already seen his ownership start trending up as the week goes on. I wouldn’t be surprised if both him and Conners clear 17%. I have qualms with the Burns and Zalatoris chalk, but I completely understand why Conners and Henley are both receiving love. Both hit the ball immaculately last week, and while I rarely endorse players in the $7K range that cross the 15% threshold, I will likely end up with one of them. If you are already playing the likes of Rory, Zalatoris, Finau, Burns, and Sungjae however, I would consider a pivot off Conners/Henley to Homa/Hatton/Power. Aaron Wise, Davis Riley, and Taylor Pendrith will all be in the 8-13% range too, with Wise on the higher end and Pendrith on the lower end. Yet with all of that ownership going to Henley and Conners, there’s no scenario where anyone else in the high 7’s gets out of control. In the low 7’s, Stallings and Poston will both fall between 11 and 15%, with Steele, Chez Reavie, and Cameron Davis not far behind. I’ll be transparent here, I think Stallings will bomb this week. None of these players will be in my pool, but I certainly endorse a play on Steele or Davis. I understand why both are garnering ownership and I don’t really have any qualms about it. Chris Kirk will fall in that 7-9% range as well, but I don’t see him clearing double digits.

• $6K Range: There’s certainly some opportunity here, as in strong fields, most people tend to take a more balanced approach. I actually think that there are a lot of good names down here, and none of them will near double digits. Here’s who is garnering some buzz: Tom Hoge, Taylor Moore, Alex Smalley, Troy Merritt, Callum Tarren, Kurt Kitayama. Those players will come in higher than their peers, but are nothing to be too concerned about.

Best of luck this week – AL