By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Looking at the weather report this week, there’s actually an argument that the AM/PM wave will experience more favorable conditions. On both Thursday and Friday, the morning should yield perfect scoring conditions, yet the wind picks up in the afternoons. While Thursday and Friday morning look to feature nearly identical conditions, Thursday afternoon expects to be more blustery than Friday afternoon. I wouldn’t say the difference is enough to be overly aggressive with, but I thought it was worth mentioning. It’s not a bad tie-breaker to use if you are deciding between two players. Unfortunately, the majority of the players that I prefer are in the PM/AM wave, and I am not willing to get off many of them. I made one or two substitutions just to attempt to even myself out, but I still have an even split of PM/AM and AM/PM players.

Core 4: The four players I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Corey Conners, $10,300 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 17.3%): I almost went with Hideki here (and I endorse a play on both of them together), but Corey Conners is my guy this week. I still believe that he is in a higher caliber of player than a Cameron Davis or Taylor Pendrith, who will both be coming in at the double the ownership. I have no problem with the idea of playing one of Davis or Pendrith, but starting up top with two $10K players is a far better allocation of resources. Conners remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world, and is an elite wedge player too. It’s starting to feel a bit strange that he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since the 2019 Valero Texas Open, as he has improved greatly as a player since then. It’s about time that he gets on board, and what better spot to deploy him than a weak field wedge fest that has been kind to poor putters over the years. For all the flack he gets about being “unable to keep up in a putting contest,” Conners is the number one player in this field in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. I expect him to generate an obscene amount of birdie opportunities on a second shot golf course with a large plurality of approach shots from inside 150 yards.

• Troy Merritt, $8,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.0%): I’m incredibly high on Troy Merritt in all markets this week, and I’m a bit surprised he hasn’t received more buzz. When looking at other Bent-grass courses with easier scoring conditions, Merritt won the Barbasol Championship at 23-under par, the Quicken Loans National at 18-under par, has never finished worse than 14th in three appearances at Detroit Golf Club, and boasts high end finishes at the Byron Nelson, Charles Schwab, and Travelers as well. Oh, and he’s also finished fourth here in 2018 and 16th last year. Merritt is one of the biggest risers on easy golf courses compared to his long-term baseline. These are the weeks you want to pencil him in. He remains one of the best putters in the world, and he appears to have found something with his irons as well. The Boise State product has gained over two strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, and has put together some strong weeks off the tee as well. One could definitely argue that he’s a tad over-priced, but that will fortunately be reflected in his ownership.

• Justin Suh, $8,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.0%): I’m generally not one to need to be early on someone. I’ve had no problem passing on betting players such as Mito Pereira, Chris Gotterup, and Cameron Young every week, who still have yet to make outright bettors a single dollar. Young studs are often over-valued and over-owned. They are easy to root for, and people want to call their shot. Despite being the best Korn Ferry Tour graduate and winning the Korn Ferry Tour finals, there doesn’t seem to be much of a massive Justin Suh bandwagon this week. I’m not suggesting that he’s sneaking up on anyone, but the ownership is palatable, and I have him coming in lower than Taylor Montgomery, despite being $300 cheaper. I believe that Suh is a better player than Montgomery. The California native was a four-time All-American at USC, and was considered to be every bit as talented as Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland coming out of college. He battled a left injury in his rookie season, and was never able to find his footing, while watching his peers experience immediate success. After being relegated to Korn Ferry Tour this past year, Suh reminded us of his pedigree, with 17 top-30 finishes, 10 top-10 finishes, and a win at the Korn Ferry Tour Finals in 28 starts. Suh is the one player in this class that could be a superstar, and this is the time to buy.

• Adam Svensson, $7,200 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.1%): I’ve developed a bit of a frustrating Adam Svensson habit this past year, and it’s not something I’ve been able to kick just yet. I use the term frustrating because the Canadian has a penchant for terrible final rounds. He put together an incredibly consistent rookie season, making 17 cuts in 24 starts, but ranked nearly dead last in final round scoring average. This is an issue that Svensson absolutely needs to get past, but it’s not entirely uncommon for young players either. The talent is there. The 28-year-old ranks top-20 in this field in strokes gained approach, opportunities gained, birdies or better gained, average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions, and long-term proximity inside 150 yards. Bent-grass has historically been his best surface, and an 18th, 24th, and 24th in three appearances at Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run lead me to believe that he is more than capable of finding success at Silverado.

Chalk Report: 

• $10K: Only four players (Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Corey Conners, and Sahith Theegala) check in at above $10K this week, and $10.7 is a very cheap price to pay for the most expensive golfer on the slate. I feel comfortable in suggesting that Max Homa will be the most popular of this bunch. I have him coming in at around 23%. I don’t think there will be much of a difference in ownership between Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners. I have them both checking in between 15 and 19%. Sahith will certainly be the lowest owned of this bunch, as he should be. As much as I love Sahith, I do not believe he is the caliber of player as the others in this range, and I would argue that there are a few players in the $9K range that should be ahead of him as well. Sahith does present a very nice leverage opportunity however, seeing as right below him, Cameron Davis and Taylor Pendrith are coming in at intemperate numbers.

• $9K: This range features some pretty unsightly groupthink, with Taylor Pendrith and Cameron Davis both checking in at above 26%. If you love Pendrith or Davis, there are certainly ways to play them, you just have to be smart about it. This is generally not something I have a ton of interest in, but if forced to choose, I would prefer Davis. I’m not a huge Mav McNealy fan this week, but in no universe should he check in at half the ownership of Davis and Pendrith. I definitely prefer Davis Riley to McNealy, and both players should fall between 13% and 17%. I do believe that there is a bit of a talent discrepancy once we get past Riley. I wouldn’t have really blinked if Emiliano Grillo and Tom Hoge were priced in the low $8K range. With that being said, both are coming in at palatable numbers (Davis and Pendrith make everyone feel palatable). I have Grillo at around 15%, and Hoge at 12%.

• $8K: With the way folks are building this week, this is a range that will inevitably get a bit squeezed. I really thought that Brendan Steele would be fairly popular this week, but I’m not even sold that he cracks double digits. The most popular player in this eights appears to be Trey Mullinax, who I have coming in around 16%. After that, the two KFT newcomers (Taylor Montgomery and Justin Suh) will both be in the double digits, but I have neither cracking 15%. After that, I have Denny McCarthy, Troy Merritt, Webb Simpson, Alex Noren, Gary Woodland, and Wyndham Clark, all checking in between 5 and 12%, with Clark on the higher end, and McCarthy, Webb, and Noren on the lower end.

• $7K: The $7K range is massive this week, and while there is no overwhelming chalk, a couple players are getting up there. Mark Hubbard, Taylor Moore, and Patrick Rodgers should all come in at double digits. I would be surprised if any of them cracked 15% however. After that, there are a number of candidates who could crack double digits, but will most likely be in the 7 to 12% range. Those players are Chris Kirk, Cameron Champ, Andrew Putnam, Chez Reavie, J.J. Spaun, Stephan Jaeger, Michael Gligic, Alex Smalley, Callum Tarren, Adam Svensson, Austin Eckroat, and Chris Gotterup. One to three in that group will crack 10%. My guess would be Kirk, Reavie, and Gotterup. Every player not mentioned is likely to be sub-seven percent and not worth worrying about.

• $6K: I doubt that any player in this range will emerge as an overwhelmingly popular option. With the talent gap between Homa and Hideki compared to everyone else, this logically should be a stars and scrubs week, but I’m seeing very little interest once we get past Gotterup at 7.1K. I currently do not have a single player in the $6K range clearing 5%, so as always, choose your own adventure down here.

Best of luck this week – AL