By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Okay, let’s talk about the weather. Before we go short term, let’s think long term. In the last month, this area of Georgia has gotten 5.27 inches of rain, the highest total since 2014. Not to mention the fact that there was a steady rain beginning Tuesday afternoon that ran all throughout the evening. We saw more intermittent showers early on Wednesday morning, and it will rain again consistently through Wednesday night. What does this all mean? Expect to see a very soft golf course on Thursday. Yes, it will be windy on Thursday as well, with consistent gusts of 10-14 mph between 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM, but I still expect relatively standard scoring conditions because of all the moisture on the golf course. There’s no way to run the sub-air when it’s raining or when players are on the course, so the greens will be at their most receptive all throughout Thursday.

That will change on Friday. There is no rain on the forecast for Thursday evening, so expect the sub-air to run overnight and the greens to start firming up. I imagine they will still be somewhat receptive on Friday morning, and get firmer as the day goes on. Add in the fact that the wind really picks up on Friday around 11:00 AM, peaking between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM, and it is abundantly clear that players will face the hardest conditions on Friday afternoon.

Let’s still put this all into perspective. There’s not a normal tee time stack like we have at other PGA Tour events, with only a 20 minute interval between “waves.” All of the morning wave will still be on the course when the wind starts to pick up around 11:00 AM on Friday, and the last players in that “wave” tee off right before 11:00. With that being said, the goal here is to minimize the amount of time you are on the golf course between 2:00 and 5:00 PM on Friday afternoon. 

Do I think the difference between scoring on Thursday morning and Friday afternoon is more than a stroke? Maybe, but I do not foresee this being as blatant as a wave advantage as what we saw at the players. It just happens that the majority of the players I liked to begin with have the PM/AM side of the draw, but I did help use it as a tie-breaker between a couple lower priced options. 14/18 players in my pool have the PM/AM side of the draw, but it’s not worth a full stack in my opinion. Some lineups will have all PM/AM, and some lineups will have four AM/PM guys just incase the weather flips. My recommendation is always for you to choose your own adventure. I am planning to heavily favor one side of the draw, but I also got lucky that most of my original favorite plays were PM/AM to begin with. As always, feel free to hit me up with any questions in the slack if you need to talk through it.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most overweight on relative to the field.

• Jon Rahm, $10,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 18.2%): I would be shocked if Jon Rahm doesn’t finish Top-10 here. Yes, I have a million stats to back this up, but I also just couldn’t get past his interview yesterday. The Spaniard is entirely aware of Scottie Scheffler taking his number one spot in the official world golf rankings, and he appeared as focused and motivated as ever. Side note, my favorite bet of the week is Rahm over Scheffler in a matchup. I slammed it at -135. It’s all the way up to -160 now. In all of the content I’ve consumed this week, I have been shocked at how little Rahm has been mentioned. I’m not suggesting he’s sneaking up on anyone at 18%, but in my opinion, when Rahm is under 11K and 20%, you’re a fool not to play him.

• Rory McIlroy, $10,000 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.8%): Rory was not a player I had earmarked entering into this week. Like many, I was put off by what I saw at the Valero. With that being said, the more I dove into the numbers and the weather, I couldn’t escape McIlroy. He was the number two player in my model this week behind Justin Thomas, and the number one player when I reworked it later in the week to account for the softness of a golf course. These are the ideal turf conditions for Rory McIlroy. Remember what he did to a wet Congressional at the 2011 U.S. Open? McIlroy’s greatest attribute is his high ball-flight and carry distance, which is why there are countless examples of why he has excelled in softer conditions. Everyone knows how much I love Justin Thomas this week, but at half the ownership, McIlroy is objectively a better DFS play. Thomas is not 50% more likely to outperform Rory this week, or anything close to to that.

• Tommy Fleetwood, $7,700 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.2%): Fairway Jesus will create some miracles this week, and hopefully win me a million dollars. Yes, Fleetwood is on the “wrong” side of the draw, but he’s coming in at half the ownership of Matt Fitzpatrick, despite hitting the ball longer than Fitz, and having more success in major championships. Fleetwood has had a legitimate chance to win multiple majors in windy conditions, and he might have the most underrated short game in the world. He’s sandwiched between Fitzpatrick and Corey Conners, so my projection of 8% might even be high. I think Tommy Fleetwood is going to win someone a lot of money this week. Famous last words, right?

• Thomas Pieters, $6,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.3%): It’s very rare that I include a 6K player in my core four, but that is how confident I am this week in Thomas Pieters. The Belgium bomber will certainly garner ownership, but my builds are so unique that I have no problem eating it. He should garner ownership. Pieters is under-priced. He’s already finished Top-five at Augusta before, and he checks the box of a bomber off the tee with a high ball-flight and an above average short game. Pieters is remarkably, over a large sample size, one of the best bunker players in this field. He’s won twice in his last nine starts on the European Tour, and while sharp DFS players will be onto him, the vast majority of casuals still have no idea who Thomas Pieters is. The fact that he has the good side of the draw is just the bonus.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: I have worked tirelessly on ownership this week, and sitting here typing this on Wednesday morning, I do feel like I have a pretty good sense of where people will be going. At the top, I think it’s a safe bet to assume that Justin Thomas will be the highest owned golfer at somewhere in between 21-25%. After that, my guess would be that Jon Rahm is next, falling somewhere between 16-20%. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy will fall somewhere between 11-15%, and Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland will all fall somewhere between 7-12%. I will say that Rory is the best candidate for the “Wait, I thought this guy was supposed to be really under-owned” award. There has definitely been some chatter about Rory’s lack of ownership on DraftKings, and I could see people coming to their senses and realizing that he should be an auto-play on a soft golf course at this price and ownership. There is certainly “leverage” to be had with any of Scheffler, Morikawa, Hovland. Starting Scheffler – Morikawa, or Scheffler – Hovland, or Morikawa – Hovland, should allow you to eat some of the lower priced chalk if that is what your heart desires. I’m playing Jon Rahm, and for the record, I would still play Jon Rahm if he was the highest owned golfer on the slate. I don’t really have to worry about ownership at all up here because of how weird I get in the 7s, but I had to sub out Thomas for Rory. Listeners of any of my content this week know how high I am on Justin Thomas, but I don’t know how to justify playing a 24% JT over a 12% and $300 cheaper Rory. Not only could JT be the highest owned player on the entire slate, but him and Scheffler are the only 10K players on the “wrong” side of the draw. It’s Rahm, Rory, and some DJ for me.

• 9K: This is a bit of a strange range, as there are going to be two players in Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau that might literally be 2%. If you are playing 150 lineups, my recommendation would be to put them in… say 5 to 10 lineups. You just never know. Bryson is the longest player in the field and the number one long iron player in the field. These are pretty ideal turf conditions for him and he talked about how he was in poor health heading into the St. Jude Invitational, and held a back-nine lead in that tournament on Sunday. Crazier things have happened. I don’t feel the need to go there only playing 15 lineups this week, but I don’t think it’s a terrible idea for playing on a larger scale. Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, and Will Zalatoris are the chalk. That was predictable as soon as the pricing came out. I don’t like Brooks this week, but I can’t argue with the fact that he is objectively under-priced. I would not be shocked if he clears 20%. Smith opened up as mega-chalk, but it seems like it is trending down ever so slightly. Still, 20%+ on Smith is very much in play. Zalatoris will probably end up closer to 16%, but I still think he will carry more than Xander and Cantlay. Xander looks like he was trending towards being 20% early in the week, but it appears that people have cooled on his chances. I currently have him at 12.7%, and at this point, I would be shocked if he clears 15%. People are beginning to warm up to Cantlay. I’ve been driving the bandwagon all week, but I do not see a scenario where he catches up to Zalatoris, or even Xander. 10-14% feels about right for Pat. I have no strong opinion on Daniel Berger other than he hits a low fade, which is probably the worst ball-flight you can have around Augusta National.

• 8K: The 8K range in my opinion is the hardest to predict, and I would guess that things will be pretty spread out. I predict that Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Joaquin Niemann will all clear 12%, but none of them clear 18%. There’s no one really else to worry about here. Talor Gooch is the most mis-priced player on the slate, but he might be 2%. Similar to Bryson, I don’t feel the need to play him in 15 lineups, but if you are playing 150, I think it’s a chance worth taking. I know he’s a debutant, but if I was to build a course for Talor Gooch, I would build Augusta. He will contend here in the upcoming years. The elephant in the room is Tiger. I think he makes a late push over 10%. I just don’t buy that he will be 4-7% with how much the narrative is building. There’s too much casual money involved this week. It’s not for me, but I’ll admit, I hate it less than I did 24 hours ago. Louis, Burns, Sungjae, Finau, and Hatton should all fall between 7 and 13%, with Sungjae being on the low end, and Burns being on the high end. All of them are playable, but I prefer Louis and Finau the most.

• 7K: We knew the Corey Conners chalk was coming, and I still think he is a safe bet to finish between 22-26%. 30% always felt a bit extreme to me, but I wouldn’t be shocked either. To be honest, I never even considered him. I’m surprised he’s played as well as he has here. My numbers suggest that it’s not a great fit. Either way, the ownership makes it an easy fade. This is a big range, so let’s break it into two parts: above 7.5 and below 7.5.
  • Above 7.5, Fitzpatrick and Henley should both clear 12%. Fitzpatrick might even clear 15%. I already shared my love for Fleetwood, but there’s a legitimate chance that Sergio and Ancer could both be sub 7%. I think one of those players might win someone a lot of money this week. Hopefully that person is me because I’m playing both of them. It’s squeamish as hell. Ancer mysteriously withdrew from the Valero Texas Open, his hometown event, and Sergio is… Sergio. Yet if one of those players hits (I’ll group Webb into this discussion as well) you have a massive advantage.
  • A lot of builds feature one or two players in this low 7K range, and it’s absolutely possible that Luke List, Robert MacIntyre, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim, Max Homa, and Marc Leishman ALL clear 8%. This range just works with a lot of popular builds up top, and most casual players are afraid to dive into the 6s anyway. If you are trying to get off some of these players, it’s worth noting that MacIntyre is the only player in that group with the “right” side of the draw. From a strategy standpoint, the draw is likely going to matter more for cheaper players than it will for the best players. I’m sticking with Bobby Mac, regardless of how high he climbs, and fading everyone else. I don’t necessarily think that any of these players, especially Si Woo, Homa, and Leishman are bad plays at that ownership. There is certainly a way to fit them in, but I probably play more aggressively than most with draw stacking, so I left them out.

• 6K: As my good friend Geoff Fienberg likes to say, you can choose your own adventure down here. The only two players that I expect to clear 10% are Gary Woodland and Thomas Pieters, and I am playing both of them. Woodland and Pieters are both on the “right” side of the draw, and it’s not like they will garner more ownership than Homa, Si Woo, and Leishman. I’d rather take the discount and just play the guys that I think might have a weather advantage. 10% players in the 6K range are less concerning at the Masters than they are at other tournaments. Woodland and Pieters are both legitimately under-priced, and I generally have them in lineups with Fleetwood, Sergio, Ancer, Webb Simpson, and Bubba. I can absolutely afford to eat it with them. I’ve heard some Kevin Na and Brian Harman, and even Stewart Cink buzz this week, but I would be shocked if any of them cleared double digits. I’m rocking with EVR, Palmer, and Varner. I actually feel really strongly about Palmer this week, for better or worse. So much so that he is only one of four players in my pool to have the “wrong” side of the draw, and the only player below 7.5K at that. If Palmer was on the PM/AM side, he would be in my core four. Throw him in a lineup or put a couple bucks on his Top-20. I just have a weird feeling about this one.

Final Player Pool (Ranked Price)

1. Jon Rahm, $10,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 18.2%)
2. Dustin Johnson, $10,500 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13.0%)
3. Rory McIlroy, $10,000 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.8%)
4. Xander Schauffele, $9,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 12.7%)
5. Patrick Cantlay, $9,500 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.2%)
6. Louis Oosthuizen, $8,900 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 12.8%)
7. Tony Finau, $8,100 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.2%)
8. Abraham Ancer, $7,900 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.3%)
9. Sergio Garcia, $7,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 4.9%)
10. Tommy Fleetwood, $7,700 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.2%)
11. Webb Simpson, $7,500 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.7%)
12. Bubba Watson, $7,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.9%)
13. Robert MacIntyre, $7,000 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.4%)
14. Gary Woodland, $6,900 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13%)
15. Erik Van Rooyen, $6,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.8%)
16. Thomas Pieters, $6,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.3%)
17. Harold Varner, $6,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 3.7%)
18. Ryan Palmer, $6,500 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 2.6%)

As always, best of luck, and enjoy the golf this weekend. – AL