By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Muirfield Village on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

I haven’t really heard any chatter about the weather this week, but I actually do see an edge emerging for the PM/AM players. The AM/PM wave will see an average wind speed of 11 mph, with gusts of 12, 18, 18, and 17 mph. The PM/AM wave will see an average wind speed of 8.5 mph, with gusts of 16, 16, 18, 17 mph. More simply, Thursday morning will be more challenging than Friday morning, and Friday afternoon will be more challenging than Thursday afternoon. The course will also be the most dried out from recent rainfall on Friday afternoon, and feature the steadiest winds of the first two days at 2:00 PM. Overall, this is not a huge difference, and I would simply use it as a tie-breaker when selecting between players. It just so happened that the vast majority of the players I liked were on the PM/AM side. I have tighter pool of 18 players this week, and 13 of them are on the PM/AM side of the draw. All I was willing to do was cross off highly owned players on the AM/PM side, but there are still a few AM/PM players at low ownership that I was not willing to get off of. Ultimately, I doubt this cracks as a narrative in the industry this week and has a sizable effect on ownership.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Jon Rahm, $11,100 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 16.1%): If you asked me on Sunday, I’d tell you that Rahm was a lock to clear 20% this week. In fact, he would have been my best bet to be the highest owned player on the slate. Rahm gained 21 strokes on the field through three rounds last year before he was forced to withdraw with COVID. I felt that the “revenge” narrative would be at all time high this week. Yet the reality of the situation is that Rahm has simply not been who many thought he would be this year. He’s been completely irrelevant in the three biggest events of the season, and despite paying off as chalk in Mexico, he’s had some real disappointments at high ownership in big tournaments this year. There are still a million course fit/statistical reasons to play Rahm here, but ultimately, I’m simply doing it because he’s 10% lower than I thought he would be. It just feels like stealing.

• Viktor Hovland, $9,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 17.4%): I’m just as concerned about his short game as the next guy, but I cannot believe that Viktor Hovland is this cheap. Everyone knows how much I love Xander Schauffele, but more people are really going to play Xander at $10.2K than Hovland at $9.3K? That makes absolutely zero sense to me. I’m really digging the lack of buzz around Hovland this week, and I found his outright number of 25/1 to be most appealing of the elite players in the betting market as well. I’m starting my lineups with who I believe to be the two best drivers of the golf ball in the world, on a course where long and straight is a massive advantage. My hope is that similar to Bay Hill, Hovland can be neutral around the green. Maybe there’s something to courses with thick green-side rough being easier for him than courses like Augusta or Southern Hills with shaved areas everywhere? That remains to be seen, but I’ll take my chances on a supreme talent at an extremely fair price.

• Corey Conners, $8,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.1%): Regular readers know that this type of play is very much on brand for me. Let’s take a look at Corey Conners’ last two tournaments. He was the highest owned player on the slate at the Wells Fargo, which featured a Bent-grass course with small greens that placed an emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee. He finished T21. At the PGA Championship, he was 14% and the same price as this week, in a much better field, on another Bent-grass course that required strong total driving and around the green play. Conners caught the wrong side of the draw and missed the cut. After being the highest, and one of the highest owned players in his price range for two consecutive weeks on comparable tests, he is now single digits. In these situations, my question always is, what changed? I simply think this is an opportunity to capitalize on recency bias and get one of the strongest tee to green players in the world at single digits ownership. Conners might be the most accurate driver of the ball in the entire field, and on a golf course with the highest average difference of score from drives in the fairway to drives in the rough, I think he’s got a built in advantage here before he even tees off.

• Luke List, $7,100 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 4.9%): Luke List continues to be disrespected despite winning one of the biggest tournaments of the year. He was a feature in my core four at the Wells Fargo, and I feel similarly about him this week. I want List at golf courses like Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Muirfield Village that weed out the good ball-strikers from the poor ones, and de-emphasize putting. List is coming off a quiet 41st at the PGA Championship, where he caught the wrong side of the draw and still managed to gain a whopping 7.2 strokes off the tee. $7.1K is ridiculous to me, and the fact that he can be found as high as 180/1 in the betting markets is even more obscene.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: To be honest, I actually think this range will be relatively flat. My guess is that all five players fall somewhere between 12 and 20%. My best bet to come in over 20% would be Xander Schauffele, but that would still surprise me. He will be on the higher end of the bunch, along with Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, while Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa will be on the lower end. At the start of the week, I really felt there was a good chance that Rahm would be 25% given the “revenge” narrative. I’m not sure I see a roadmap for him to clear 20% at this point, which is part of the reason I think you have to play him. It seems like him and Rory will finish up about equal. My initial thought was that everyone would flock to Rahm, and I would be playing Rory this week at depressed ownership, but the groundswell for Rory this week is strong. I can’t fault anyone either. He’s playing excellent golf. The course history with Morikawa and Cantlay is too strong for either of them to fall below 12%, but they will both come in lower than 16%, if I had to make a guess.

• 9K: The 9K range is loaded with great options, and once again, I think ownership will be pretty flat. When I say “flat,” I mean that no player will crack 22%, or any player will fall below 10%. Shane Lowry feels like a safe bet to come in around 18-20%, but he could also end surprisingly lower than people think, which often happens when a players gets discussed as “chalk” all throughout the week. The hardest player for me to figure out here is Viktor Hovland. Various sites seem to feel completely differently about him. I’ve seen as high as 25%, and as low as 9%. I think Viktor wins this tournament, and since he will be in upwards of 60% of my lineups, I have prepared myself for him to come in higher than I would like. I have him at 17%, and the second highest owned in the range, but that might be too much. People I trust have him closer to 13-15%, which I hope is correct. I’m not sure I’m seeing a clear “leverage” play in this range. I have Cameron Smith, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Matthew Fitzpatrick all somewhere between 18% and 12%. I really do think you can play who you want in this range, even Lowry. It really just comes down to finding a unique construction.

• 8K: This is the range where I really feel that leverage is to be had. I have Mito Pereira, Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, and Cameron Young all coming in over 16%. I do not believe that Young will be something outrageous like 25% or even 22%. He was projected at 20% all PGA Championship week and came in at 13.5%. Everyone has been talking about how Young is chalk this week, which will scare some folks off at the eleventh hour. 18% feels about right for him. I actually think that Niemann is a sneaky candidate to be way higher than people expect. I imagine that some will pivot off Young and Homa, and head right down to a player they trust in Niemann. I have Sungjae Im, Davis Riley, and Keegan Bradley all between 9 and 14%. They are definitely in a tier below Mito, Niemann, Homa, and Young, but not by as much of a sizable margin as some would expect. If you want leverage, play Corey Conners, Seamus Power and Daniel Berger. If you REALLY want leverage, play Abraham Ancer, who I have at 2%.

• 7K: This is a large range, which feels clearly centered around Patrick Reed, Chris Kirk, and Aaron Wise. Similar to Niemann, I have a sense that Reed is going to come in higher than people think. He hasn’t been getting talked up as chalk the way some of the other players have, so there’s no negative stigma, yet the percentage still keeps creeping up. I have him at 15% now, but up to 18% would not shock me. Chris Kirk and Aaron Wise will be the next highest in this range, but I’m not sure either will clear 15%. After that, it really starts to flatten. Inevitably, one or two more players in this range will clear double digits. Those candidates are Matt Kuchar, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren, and Anirban Lahiri. I still expect all of them to come in at playable numbers. A potentially 10% Lahiri is a bit gross, but still more palatable than the chalk forming in the sixes.

• 6K: I never thought I’d ever have to utter these words, but Brendan Steele at $6.6K feels like an extremely safe bet to clear double digits. I’ve actually seen him as high as 15%, which I do not believe to be true. Last week, I expected a $6.3K Austin Smotherman to be 10%, and he came in closer to 5%. I think there’s enough understanding across the industry at this point that when groupthink centers around an objectively bad golfer, that’s usually bad news. I’ll admit, Steele is under-priced, but is he five times more likely (in some cases ten) to outscore the players around him? If you’ve gotten this far in the column, you probably know the answer to that. You can still play Steele if you hop on some on the leverage plays in the 7s and 8s (Berger, Power, Ancer, Bryson, etc.), which I don’t actually think is a terrible strategy if you are that high on him. There’s an outside shot that Kevin Streelman nears double digits because the course history is so strong, but I would imagine he comes in closer to 7%. Outside of Steele and Streelman, you can pretty much play anyone down here carefree.

Best of luck this week! – AL