By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Well, so much for wind! This Nuevo Vallarta weather tower is only a few miles away from the resort, so I imagine it has most accurate depiction of the wind we can find this week. As it stands early on Wednesday morning, we are expected to see maximum wind gusts of 10 mph late on Friday afternoon. That’s nothing. If you have any wind stats in your model, my suggestion would be to recalculate. Also, Thursday and Friday will be almost identical in their wind patterns. The AM/PM wave will see average wind gusts of 6.25 mph across both days, and the PM/AM wave will see average wind gusts of 6.0 across both days. No need to stack this week, play who you want!

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Tony Finau, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 17.8%): It wasn’t easy, but I ultimately decided against playing Jon Rahm. I think he is fairly priced, and the ownership is lower than I would have even expected. I still can’t do it. He may win, but I also think it’s very much in play that he misses the cut, which would be a disastrous scenario. Instead, I’ll take my chances with Tony Finau, whose had a less than inspiring season, but has finally shown signs of life with the flat-stick in his two most recent starts. I think he is a far better play than Ancer, and I actually prefer him over Woodland as well. I am also playing Patrick Reed, but Finau will be in more of my lineups.

• Aaron Rai, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 10.0%): It’s nothing flashy, but I just think Aaron Rai is a really solid play this week. He has a really well rounded game, and in a tournament where a majority of this field has never claimed victory at this level, give me someone who has actually won tournaments before. I get that they were on the European Tour, but those fields really weren’t all that worse than this one. He was battling against Euro Tour ringers in Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick down the stretch, and he beat both of them. Rai’s transition to the PGA Tour has been seamless as well. Highlights include a 15th at Mayakoba (Paspalum!), a sixth at Torrey Pines (long irons galore!), and a fourth last week at the Zurich. It’s not just about the upside, I actually think he might have the highest floor of anyone in this range as well. While not necessarily elite at anything, the Englishman rates out as above average in nearly every statistical metric that I am looking at this week.

• Lanto Griffin, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 8.1%): After Jon Rahm and Gary Woodland, Lanto Griffin was the third ranked player in my model this week. My numbers suggest that he is the biggest value on the entire board. This confuses me a little, as it’s not like the former Houston Open champion is playing very good golf right now. He’s gone MC-MC-53rd-MC in his last four starts, but something in my numbers continue to suggest that he’s actually playing better than the results would suggest. He possesses above average distance off the tee, is one of the better long iron players in the field, makes a ton of birdies, and thrives in easy scoring conditions. Factoring in price and ownership, he is my favorite DraftKings play on the entire slate.

• Adam Svensson, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 11.4%): Adam Svensson was one of the only players in the field that came in at a pleasantly surprising price. I’m not sure I would have blinked if him and 7.8K Austin Smotherman were swapped, and my early projections actually had him in the 8s. I am not deterred at all by the ownership. Even if he creeps up past 12%, that’s more than manageable. There’s a decent chance that Svensson becomes a Russell Henley-esque iron player, and in a field like this, I’m going to continue to try and catch him early.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: Jon Rahm’s ownership has been an industry wide debate all week, and as we stand on Wednesday morning, I feel pretty comfortable that he will fall somewhere between 30 and 35%. Expect that number to go up in higher stakes contests however. Honestly, it’s a very manageable number, and although I ultimately decided on a full fade of Rahm this week (pray for me), there are still ways to leverage the field without feeling like you need to lock him into every single lineup. The biggest surprise to me is that I have Abraham Ancer as slightly higher owned than Tony Finau, despite Ancer’s poor form and questionable health. It’s not like Finau has been playing a whole lot better, but that is still an incredible easy decision when factoring in Ancer’s potential distractions and course fit. Both will fall somewhere between 17 and 22%. This leaves Kevin Na and Patrick Reed, who will both be sub 10%. I far prefer Reed, and I have actually talked myself into playing some of him, but either are suitable pivots as starting points.

• 9K: Gary Woodland and Aaron Wise. Those are the guys. Outside of Rahm, they would be my best bets to clear 22%. There’s a chance that Woodland clears 25%. If you are not playing Rahm, there is a very high chance you are playing Woodland, and even if you are playing Rahm, you can still jam in Woodland. He’s the highest priced player that actually works in Rahm lineups, and he’s in excellent form, so none of this should come as a surprise. I decided to play Patrick Reed at one third of the ownership instead because that’s what I do, but I do not hate Woodland this week. In fact, he is on my outright card at 25/1. Same thing with Wise, I actually don’t think either of these players are necessarily bad chalk, but I’m already comfortably exposed in the outright market, and I actually prefer a sub-10% Cameron Tringale as a DraftKings play. Do I believe Tringale can win this tournament? Of course not, it’s Cam Tringale. Do I think he can outperform Woodland, Munoz, Kirk, Wise, and Champ? I would actually bet on it. I think if this tournament is played 1000 times, Tringale actually ends up with the highest average finishing position. A similar argument could be made for Kirk, but he will be over double the ownership of Tringale. Champ, Kirk, Munoz, and Matt Jones should all fall somewhere between 10-18%, with Champ on the higher end, and Jones on the lower end. I prefer Jones the most out of that group, and he’s the cheapest. Tringale will be closer to 9%. Brendon Todd, Russell Knox, and Kevin Streelman will all be sub-8%, and despite the appealing ownership, I am not a fan of any of them. I am different enough up here with my Finau-Reed-Tringale-Jones core.

• 8K: Apparently everyone is just skipping this range entirely? I guess if you are playing Rahm-Woodland, Rahm-Wise, Rahm-Kirk, or Rahm-Champ, it’s hard to get to. I don’t project a single player in this range to clear 12%! That’s wild. If you want to give game theory a try, pepper this range. Aaron Rai at 10% and Lanto Griffin at 8% are core plays for me, and I am also playing a 7% Doug Ghim, a 6% Taylor Moore, and a 10% C.T. Pan. This range gives me life. I thought on Monday afternoon that Sahith Theegala and Davis Riley would garner ownership, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. My guess is that every single player in this range will fall between 5 and 12%, with Mark Hubbard as the leader in the clubhouse for the highest owned golfer. What a world!

• 7K: Ownership appears to be relatively spread out here. There is no one that really jumps off the page and is expected to clear 15%. My guess is that the only players who will clear 10% are Adam Svensson, Alex Smalley, Austin Smotherman, and Nate Lashley. None of them are a lock to clear 10 either. There is a chance that one of those players catches some late steam and hikes up to 14%, but that would still surprise me. Smotherman will probably clear 15% only in Mayo’s contest. I’m not a Lashley fan this week, but I actually think Svensson, Smalley, and Smotherman are garnering ownership for a reason and are really solid plays in the range. Svensson is a core play for me, and I would almost argue that his price is disrespectful. Outside of the four players that I just mentioned, choose your own adventure and don’t worry about ownership.

• 6K: Like most weeks, there’s nothing super concerning in this range. My best guesses for the most popular plays would be  Hayden Buckley, Vince Whaley, and Brice Garnett, and none of them may even clear 6%! Despite the fact that I could argue that a few of these players are better than some 7K options, I understand why many aren’t diving down here this week. I like Whaley and Mullinax, but I see no reason to dip below 6.8K, especially because I will have no exposure to Rahm. If you absolutely NEED a salary saver, my favorite punt play is Scott Brown at 6.4.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price)

1. Tony Finau, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 17.8%)
2. Patrick Reed, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 7.4%)
3. Cameron Tringale, $9,700 (Projected ownership: 8.4%)
4. Matt Jones, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 10.8%)
5. Doug Ghim, $8,900 (Projected ownership: 7.4%)
6. Aaron Rai, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 10.0%)
7. Lanto Griffin, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 8.1%)
8. Taylor Moore, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 5.9%)
9. C.T. Pan, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 9.6%)
10. Austin Smotherman, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 10.1%)
11. Alex Smalley, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 10.3%)
12. Adam Svensson, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 11.4%)
13. Brandon Wu, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 4.1%)
14. Greyson Sigg, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 6.6%)
15. Michael Thompson, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 3.5%)
16. Joseph Bramlett, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 7.5%)
17. Danny Lee, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 5.0%)
18. Vince Whaley, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 5.4%)
19. Trey Mullinax, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 1.5%)

Best of luck this week! – AL