By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three tournaments already this year, including the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the U.S. Open, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

The weather will certainly be a hot button topic this week, especially on the heels of the Scottish Open, which featured such a pronounced wave advantage. How the super forecast stands on Wednesday morning, I would give an edge to the AM/PM players. Thursday morning from 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM looks like a really nice pocket of time to be on the course. 2:00 – 5:00 PM on Thursday however, does not look as docile. Friday tells a similar story but in reverse. Friday expects to be a far more calm day overall, and 2:00 – 4:00 PM (and 6:00 – 8:00 PM) looks like an excellent time to be on the course, whereas 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM expects to be much more problematic. It’s tough to feel confident in a full wave stack, especially with every player going off the first hole in succession. I do foresee a bit of an edge for AM/PM players, but I will be using that as a tiebreaker at the most, and my player pool is still pretty evenly split between both waves.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Rory McIlroy, $11,100 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 20.5%): I’ll be honest, it’s extremely rare for me to be this high on a player at this price tag and ownership, but I’ve been saying that Rory was going to win the Open Championship at St. Andrew’s since December, and there’s no going back now. I would have probably played Rory up to 25%, and I will still have massive leverage on the field (he’ll likely be in close to 80% of my lineups), but I’m very encouraged by the fact that Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, and Cameron Smith might all end up higher than Rory. I’m not suggesting that Rory is sneaking up on anybody, but even if you wanted to take a less aggressive stance than me, you’re not going to have to do backflips to get significant leverage on the field. Yes, I do believe that he is going to win the tournament, potentially by four of five strokes, but I also feel that he possesses the highest floor out of any player in the field this week. I do not see a conceivable scenario where he is not in the mix heading into the weekend, and while he would need a top-five to really pay off his price, I’m not worried about him making my lineups dead on Friday afternoon. I rarely drink the kool-aid, but I’ll admit, I’m all in on this one. I’m taking an aggressive stance in the sense that I will have zero percent Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, and Cameron Smith (or anyone else in the $10K range). It’s Rory or bust for me this week.

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13.4%): I wrote last week that Patrick Cantlay was the most obvious lay-up DFS play of all time at the Scottish Open, and he rewarded us with a top-five finish. I’m going right back to the well on Cantlay, as despite overcoming the wrong side of the draw to finish fourth at the Renaissance Club, he’s garnering zero buzz this week. I gave strong consideration to him in the betting market, and if I hadn’t gone all in on Rory, Cantlay would have been one of the first bets I made. His major championship record in general is underrated, and a 12th-place finish at Carnoustie and a fourth-place finish last week leads me to believe his game can easily translate to links style courses. He’s played well at Augusta, and recorded two top-five finishes at Kapalua as well. My guess is that Cantlay just isn’t very likable, but its incredible to me how consistently under-valued he is. He’s coming off a performance where he gained strokes in all four major categories for the second start in a row, and he’s two strokes away from having three wins on the season. I feel pretty confident that Cantlay will contend this week, and I’m surprised he hasn’t caught more steam.

• Marc Leishman, $7,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 7.9%): Marc Leishman is another player that I’ve been talking about at St. Andrew’s since my majors preview in December, and just like Rory, I’m sticking to my guns. I’ll admit, the big Aussie’s recent form certainly leaves something to be desired, but he still managed to rate out as one of the best values on the board despite an up and down season. I simply believe that this is the type of golf course that will bring out his best, as it did in 2015 when he lost in a playoff to Louis Oosthuizen. Leishman ranks top-30 in this field in long-term proximity inside 125 yards, scrambling, putting on slow to moderate greens, and three putt avoidance. He’s got a strong record at both Augusta and Kapalua, and he’s shown his ability to take down big events before. I would not be surprised if Leishman won this tournament, and while there certainly is risk involved, he’s the type of player I trust to close the door if he finds himself in contention.

• Patrick Reed, $7,300 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 5.6%): I’ve made a lot of jokes about LIV, but it’s hard to view Reed’s performance in Portland as anything other than a positive. Reed fist pumped his way into contention at Pumpkin Ridge, and I have zero doubt in my mind he’ll be up for the challenge this week at the Old Course. I’ve always felt he was a great fit for links golf, and three top-25s, including a 10th at Royal Portrush and a 20th at St. Andrew’s in 2015 leads me to believe he’s got all the tools to succeed on these types of golf courses. While his ball-striking will never blow you away, Reed remains one of the best lag putters and bunker players of our generation. There are few players below 7.5K that I legitimately believe can win this tournament, and Reed is one of them. We’re getting a clear ownership discount because he’s on the LIV Tour, and while that’s warranted for certain defectors, Reed is still too cheap in my opinion. Factoring in price and ownership, Reed is my absolute favorite DraftKings play on the entire board, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: Okay, there’s a lot to talk about here but let’s start with Rory McIlroy. I think an even 20% on McIlroy feels about right. Rory is a total feel good play, but there’s also a huge contingent of people that are asking the fair question of why this is this suddenly the first major that he wins in eight years. If there wasn’t such a strong sentiment towards Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele coming off their performances at the Scottish Open, Rory probably would have pushed 25% in this spot, but lineups get tricky quickly with Rory. There will certainly be some Rory – Spieth or Rory – Xander starts, but that will also require many to dig deeper than they are comfortable doing. Spieth will be just as popular as Rory, and he is a much more palatable anchor. He’s a lock to clear 18% in my opinion, but I have him capped at around 22%. Next would be Justin Thomas, who should fall somewhere in the mid teens (13-17%). Then comes Scheffler and Rahm. Right now, I have Scheffler projected higher than Rahm, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that flips by week’s end. Rahm is such an obvious candidate to catch late steam. As it stands early on Wednesday morning, I have him just below 9%, which I will admit, is objectively too low. Once people start seeing that Rahm could be sub-10% in a major, they will add him. Just wait. I think he ends up at around 12 or 13%, right with Scheffler, and he will be more owned than Scheffler in the higher stakes contests too. I don’t see any scenario where Collin Morikawa cracks double digits. He will not be below 5%, there are too many smart people that won’t allow that to happen, but I have him capped at 8%. Even if he catches a little late steam, the sentiment on him this week is quite low, and I have seen very little people bet him or tout him for DraftKings purposes.

• 9K: I made a bold prediction on my podcast yesterday that Cameron Smith would end up with higher ownership than Xander Schauffele, and I still believe that on Wednesday morning. Xander Schauffele is the super obvious play that everyone says will be mega-chalk. Cameron Smith is the guy that absolutely everyone loves that does not carry the same chalk stigma. I think both Smith and Xander fall between 17-21%. In terms of ownership, there will not be a whole lot of difference between Rory, Spieth, Smith, and Xander. They will be the four highest owned players on the slate, all falling between 17-24%. Next comes Matt Fitzpatrick, who feels like the Justin Thomas of this range. He is a lock to clear 13%, but I don’t see a scenario where he catches up to Xander or Smith. There’s definitely some “You know whose sneaky? Shane Lowry” vibes this week. Shane Lowry is far from sneaky this week. I have him slightly lower than Fitzpatrick, but still in the 13-17% range. I would put Will Zalatoris and Patrick Cantlay next. I think that both clear double digits, but still end up lower than Fitzpatrick and Lowry. Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama will both be sub-10%. I wouldn’t suggest that any of the LIV players are “sneaky.” They will all be under-owned based on what they should be, but there’s still enough of a narrative at this point surrounding the idea that the LIV players as great leverage plays. If DJ got to double digits, I honestly wouldn’t be shocked. I think it’s unlikely, but I wouldn’t be shocked. I’m not sure anything could push Viktor Hovland above 5% at this point. This is undoubtedly an interesting buy low spot for him, but people still aren’t biting.

• 8K: The 8K range is interesting in the sense that ownership seems to be conglomerating around a few players, leaving multiple options in the single digits. Tony Finau will be chalk this week. His major form, Open form, and recent form will simply be too good for folks to pass up. He’s an extremely safe bet to clear 15%, but I have him capped at 19%. Next up would be Tommy Fleetwood and Joaquin Niemann. Both players will clear 15% as well in my opinion. Fleetwood’s betting number is too short for many, so DraftKings feels like a far more palatable way to deploy him. Niemann’s betting number is a bit more tasteful, and there’s a strong perception that he “flights” the ball under the wind well and should be an ideal fit for links golf. After those three players, there is a clear drop off to Sam Burns and Tyrrell Hatton, who will both fall somewhere between 9 and 13%. I really thought Burns would be more popular than this heading into the weekend, but its a hefty price to pay for a player whose never contended before at a major, let alone an Open Championship. Louis Oosthuizen is by no means sneaky. If you want to suggest that at 10% he’s under-owned, I guess you could make that argument, but he is the player that everyone seems to be touting as a pivot, not realizing that he is no longer an actual pivot. The real pivots in this range are Brooks Koepka, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, and Bryson DeChambeau. Conners and Sungjae will fall between 5 and 9%, while Brooks and Bryson might not clear 5%. Very few people are even biting on the obtuse betting numbers, so I would not expect any late steam regarding ownership, even when people see that both players will really be that low.

• 7K: Max Homa has always been popular within the fantasy community, but excitement appears to have reached a fever pitch on the four-time PGA Tour winner. Homa will be the highest owned player under 8K, and it will not be particularly close. I think there’s a very small chance that he could even clear 20%. For whatever reason, the mid to high 7K range is an absolute dead zone. People are paying up for Homa, and then dropping all the way down to Seamus Power at 7.4. There are 12 players priced between Homa and Power (MacIntyre, Young, Leishman, Scott, Simpson, Ancer, Horschel, Casey, Woods, Rose, Westwood, and Garcia), and not a single one of them will clear 10%. I feel obligated to comment on Tiger, who I believe will fall somewhere between 4 and 8% this week. I think there’s a healthy dose of skepticism surrounding his ability to put it together for four consecutive rounds, and I can’t say that disagree. I spoke about how there is definitely some groupthink going on at the top of the board, with ownership conglomerating around certain players, but the $7K range is where things really flatten out. Outside of Homa and Power, I’m not sure anyone cracks double digits. One of Mito Pereira, Gary Woodland, or Ryan Fox might get there, but that would still surprise me.

• 6K: The $6K range tends to be dead at majors unless there is a clear mis-pricing, and the Open Championship is no different. There’s a predominant understanding that the cream rises to the top at major championships, and most fantasy players would rather build balanced lineups than take their chances on an unproven. I would argue that the Open is the major with the most variance, and that there are actually some incredibly appealing options down here. I do think that Keith Mitchell will garner some ownership. Double digits would surprise me, but did you know that his dad’s a member of the R & A? This one really matters to him! I’ve head some Tom Kim buzz at 6.5K, but I would be shocked if he cracks 8%. The other names that I’ve heard down here are Stewart Cink, Chris Kirk, Emiliano Grillo, and Thomas Detry, but there’s really nothing to worry about with any of them. Choose your own adventure down here.

Best of luck this week – AL