By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Southern Hills on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Okay, here’s the deal. I have a few thoughts on how this is going to play out, but the running joke in Oklahoma is how much of a fool’s errand it is to predict the weather. The reality of the situation is that no one knows how this is going to play out, and if they tell you do they do, they are lying. Here’s my best guess on how I see the weather playing out, but this is not financial advise. I would encourage all to do their own research and trust their gut. Keep in mind, whatever the consensus narrative ends up being, the opposite usually happens.

Thursday looks to have steadied out a bit. There will still be an advantage for the AM wave on day one however. The AM players will see gusts a consistent wind speed of 17 mph, with gusts between 22 and 26 mph. The afternoon will be slightly tougher, with consistent wind speeds between 17 and 20 mph, and gusts between 28 and 37 mph. The 37 mph gusts around 7:00 PM are not great news for the players teeing off around 3:00 PM.

Friday morning looks to be absolute carnage, with 52 mph gusts at 7:00 AM. With that being said, the first tee time on Friday isn’t until 8:00 AM, when the gusts look to be “calming down.” Still, 38 mph gusts at 10:00 AM are a problem for the Friday morning wave. The wind does die down in the afternoon, with consistent wind speeds between 10 and 16 mph, and gusts up to 22 mph. This is a far cry from the 38 mph gusts we will see that morning.

Add all of this up, and across two days, the AM/PM will experience an average wind speed of 17 mph, with average wind gusts of 22.75 mph. The PM/AM will experience an an average wind speed of 19 mph, with average wind gusts of 32 mph. This would assume a pretty sizable advantage for the AM/PM wave.

Is it possible that this gets flipped upside down? Of course, I wouldn’t rule anything out. What would surprise me would be a delay on Friday morning like some are suggesting. The difference between this situation and the PLAYERS is that the PLAYERS did not get delayed because of wind, it got delayed because of electricity. For a tournament to be delayed because of wind, balls would have to be rolling off the greens, similar to what we saw a few years ago at Riviera. The difference between Southern Hills and Riviera however is that the greens here are going to be a lot slower this week. It’s almost like the tournament organizers understand Tulsa weather and planned for this! Russ Myers and his staff are used to setting up this golf course for member play in 40 mph gusts. This also explains why the greens are only running 10 ft on the stimp-meter this week. Due to the heavy contouring on the greens, tournament organizers are completely aware that sever winds would blow balls off the green in firmer conditions. Keep in mind that delays at major championships are a logistical nightmare for all parties involved, especially the network and sponsors of the tournament. A Monday finish is the last thing that CBS or the PGA of America wants, and I don’t think we are giving enough credence to the fact that this is normal Tulsa weather for May. Myers and the PGA understand how to set up this golf course in 40 mph wind gusts and will be prepared for this. I would be surprised if we see any delay.

In conclusion, 13 out of my 20 players will be in the AM/PM wave. I am not doing a full stack, as there are some PM/AM players that I simply refuse to get off. Still, my exposure will be heavier towards the AM/PM wave. I will have a few stacks in the other direction as well, just in case. I wouldn’t recommend eliminating players that you believe are slam dunk plays just because they are on the wrong side of the draw. I’ve fallen into that trap before, and I can confidently say that players on the “wrong” side of the draw will still in fact make the cut! It even happened at the Players, when we saw the most pronounced weather advantage of the year. Ultimately, pick your own adventure. I am neither a meteorologist, nor a financial advisor!

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Rory McIlroy, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 19.6%) (AM/PM): As it stands on Wednesday morning, I’ve talked myself into Rory McIlroy winning the PGA Championship. He has the “right side” of the draw, he’s not a buzzy pick this week, he is the most comfortable drawer of the ball off the tee out of all the elites, and he possesses one of the most underrated short games in the world. Rory never gets enough credit for his short game, he is a borderline elite bunker player, and he led the field this year in strokes gained around the green at the Masters. The best we can do in terms of simulating the types of shots required at Southern Hills is looking at Augusta, and Rory is near the top of the field in scrambling every single year at the Masters. The term “creative” gets thrown around a lot with Jordan Spieth, but Rory has every single shot in his bag, and he’s coming in with great ball-striking form as well.

• Xander Schauffele, $9,300 (Projected ownership: 15.4%) (AM/PM): 14.5% might be a little bit low on Xander Schauffele, but I still think being wedged in between Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Cantlay will keep things under control. Word on the grounds is that Xander is feeling confident, he’s not tinkering with his game, and he showed a lot of cahones to make that cut at the Byron Nelson. I would have played Xander in this spot due to the course fit regardless of how he looked last week, but I was incredibly encouraged to watch him go scorched earth over the weekend. I track Xander more closely than any other player on the PGA Tour, and this is the best I’ve seen his game look all season. There are significant trends pointing to the importance of players entering PGA Championships in good ball-striking form. There’s no way to fake it around a golf course like Southern Hills, and Xander is feeling himself right now. He finished sixth at Shinnecock in similar conditions, and has finished in the Top-10 in nearly 50% of the majors he’s played in.

• Tony Finau, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 12.8%) (AM/PM): This spot was always going to be reserved for Tommy “The Prince of Shinnecock” Fleetwood, but I decided to slightly decrease my exposure given the fact that he is on the “wrong” side of the draw. Instead, I’ll give a shout to Tony Finau, who also finished sixth at Shinnecock and has finished in the Top-10 in 43% of the majors that he’s played in. His win at the Northern Trust came on Bent-grass, he’s been awesome at the Masters, and he’s never finished outside the Top-35 in six appearances at Colonial. I would prefer him at single digits, but 13% is more than manageable.

• Kevin Na, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 2.8%) (AM/PM): Very rarely will I include a 6K player as part of my core four, but this is too much of a slam dunk. Kevin Na checks nearly every single box that I am looking for from a 6K option this week. Great short iron player? Check. Elite short game? Check. Awesome on Bent-grass? Check. In form with his irons? Check. Impressive at golf courses like Colonial and Augusta? Yes. Na is fifth in this field in long-term proximity from 125-150 yards, 23rd in Sand Saves, fifth in Scrambling, 19th in Bent-grass putting, is coming off a 14th at the Masters, has won at Colonial, and he has now gained over four strokes on approach in three straight starts, including a whopping 9.4 at the Masters. This is an easy one.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: To be honest, this section feels pretty flat to me. My guess would be that no one in this range clears 22%. Initially I had thought Justin Thomas would be the highest owned, but now it feels like him and Rory McIlroy are neck and neck, given the fact that Rory has the “right side of the draw.” Both players should fall between 17 and 21%. Scottie Scheffler probably comes next, followed by Jon Rahm, and then Collin Morikawa. I didn’t have room, but I cannot say that I would have predicted a sub-15% Jon Rahm at a major. Morikawa never gets the respect he deserves. He’s gone off at single digits before at courses like Riviera, but this is the lowest I can remember Rahm in quite some time. It’s increasingly strange when considering the fact that in his last start, he delivered for everyone at mega-chalk. I do not think this is a perfect course for Rahm, but that could be dangerous.

• 9K: Jordan Spieth would be my official prediction to be the highest owned golfer on the slate, but even so, 25% feels like his limit. He’s the rare player who checks the box for the narrative people and the stats people, not to mention the fact that he is on the right side of the “draw.” Still, there are just far too many solid options around him to be mega-chalk. I never thought I would ever say this, but Hideki Matsuyama would be my guess to be the second in this range and just barely clear 20%. Hideki is the type of player that always goes under-owned, but he fits this course to a tee, and is coming off an extremely strong performance in his last start. He’s also on the “right” side of the draw. Maybe the injury noise quells that slightly, but my sense is that most people are sticking with him in GPPs. Patrick Cantlay is probably next, coming in between 16 and 20%. The fact that he is on the “wrong” side of the draw leads me to believe he will come in slightly below Hideki. I have Xander Schauffele next at around 15%. Xander might be the best candidate to come in way higher than expected. People still love playing Xander (myself included), and it’s hard not to be encouraged from what we saw last week. 15% might be wishful thinking, but that’s where I’m at on Wednesday morning. He’s still right between Spieth and Hideki, and the love for those two is real. I could see Cam Smith sneaking up because he’s on the “right side” of the draw, but 15% feels like a safe limit. Viktor Hovland and Dustin Johnson are the clear “leverage” options, and will both likely fall between 7 and 12%. Hovland might see a bit of a late bump because he is on the “right” side of the draw, but there’s a strong narrative working against him this week with the seemingly industry wide heavy emphasis on short game. Brooks Koepka at 5% feels about right. I could have seen the Brooks people start to talk themselves into it as the week went on, but the fact that he received the unfavorable draw will likely quell that movement.

• 8K: Shane Lowry feels like the safest bet for the highest owned player in this range. There’s an outside shot that Will Zalatoris catches up to him given that Zalatoris has the favorable side of the draw and Lowry doesn’t. I have Zalatoris weirdly low right now (13%), but I’m not sure that I trust it. My hunch is that he rises closer to 15%, and Lowry falls closer to 17 or 18%. Joaquin Niemann, Corey Conners, and potentially Daniel Berger (depending on how many people consume my content this week) will all clear 10%, but I don’t have any currently above 15%. Max Homa will likely clear 10% as well given the draw bias. The low 8K range is an absolute dead-zone with Bryson DeChambeau, Tiger Woods, Tyrrell Hatton, and Louis Oosthuizen. All four will be in the single digits, and Bryson might legitimately be 1%. If you are playing 150 lineups, I would consider taking a chance on at least one of those players. In the fantasy golf betting and DraftKings community, I haven’t heard many people tout Tiger, and that was not the case at the Masters. Multiple players I respect took a chance with Tiger at the Masters, but it feels the entire community is actually more bearish on his chances here than at Augusta. Bryson (and Louis) are absolutely withdrawal risks, but on Wednesday morning, it appears that Bryon is going to give it a go.

• 7K: This is a massive range, and outside of Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, no one feels like a lock to clear double digits. I’m highly concerned that people are catching onto the Prince of Shinnecock, but the fact that he’s on the “wrong” side of the draw will certainly help with that. I still have Cameron Young at a conservative 16%. That may be low, but I still think there are too many casuals involved this week who don’t have the first clue of who he is. Fitzpatrick and Finau will always get some love at majors, but neither will be out of control. I have Fitzpatrick at 16% and Finau at 13%, but maybe that even outs given that Finau has the draw advantage. Outside of that, there’s an outside chance that a Keegan Bradley, Talor Gooch, Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak, or Alex Noren clear 10%, but all will likely fall somewhere between 8 and 12%. I never put it past the McNealy or Henley people to come out of the woodwork, but everyone else not mentioned will certainly be in the single digits.

• 6K: When pricing initially came out, I very much expected Robert MacIntyre to be chalk. He will likely be the highest owned player in this range, but I’m still not sure he even gets to double digits. Mito Pereira is the only other player with an outside chance to crack double digits. I have them both between 6 and 12%. Mito checks all the boxes for the stat heads, but similar to Cameron Young, he’s still largely unknown by many of the casuals. MacIntyre has an immaculate major record, but will not really pop in the models due to the fact that he still does the majority of his damage overseas. Still, he is under-priced, and he is still on people’s radars as someone who has popped up at multiple majors. Many believe he will be on the Ryder Cup team as early as next year. I do believe enough people will see the price and be enticed based on the talent alone. Outside of MacIntyre and Mito, Adam Hadwin, Sebastian Munoz, and Lanto Griffin might all crack 5%, but none will be in the double digits. As always, choose your own adventure down here.

I will no longer by releasing the final pool! I’m just getting too many people asking me to make lineups for them. The whole point of this article is to share the information that I have, and then have everyone make their own decisions. I am not a tout, nor do I sell picks. In DraftKings, we aren’t playing against the books, we are playing against each other. I am still happy to answer questions about players, but I’m trying to steer away from making this a picks column.

Best of luck this week! – AL