By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of St. George’s on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

As it stands now, Thursday morning appears to be rainy. I would not expect any delays, but add in some cooler temperatures and that could equal some tougher conditions like we saw earlier this year at TPC Potomac. I am still not sure that I see an edge in either direction. Even when the rain stops on Thursday afternoon, the wind will kick up. Yes, the Thursday PM players will experience warmer temperatures and a soft golf course, but with higher wind gusts. Friday morning also looks to be considerably colder with higher wind gusts than the afternoon as well, which would hypothetically even out any perceived advantage for the PM/AM players. Ultimately, I just don’t know if I feel strong enough about an edge this week to pounce. I’ve already seen this weather flip a couple times already (more so even than a normal week), so I’m not going to play a wave advantage. If I see something actionable formulate later this evening when I’m building lineups, I’ll say so in the discord.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Shane Lowry, $10,100 (Projected ownership: 13.3%): I did not envision Lowry garnering less ownership than Fitzpatrick at nearly identical prices, but here we are! Have we reached a point of Lowry fatigue? In his last two starts, he finished 23rd at PGA Championship as chalk and 32nd at the Memorial as chalk. Both respectable finishes, but it appears people are just over it. To be honest, I really think he has an incredible chance to win the U.S. Open next week, and I love the fact that public sentiment is starting to turn on him. I am so keen on him at Brookline, I’m going to play him this week as well. If he plays well here, I’ll likely have a profitable week, but be forced to re-evalulate his rising popularity next week. If he bombs this week, I’ll have him right where I want him for the U.S. Open. Easy game!

• Tony Finau, $9,400 (Projected ownership: 17.3%): I’m a little embarrassed for how prominently featured Tony Finau continues to be in my core four, but he’s been rather good to me (outside of the Players, that was not fun). The ownership is starting to creep up, but for good reason. Finau is coming off a back-door fourth at Colonial where he gained strokes in all four major categories. The former Northern Trust winner has now gained strokes in all four major categories in back to back starts for the first time since the beginning of 2021, which was the best run of his entire career. All aspects of his game are currently trending in the right direction, and the ownership is far from unmanageable.

• Sahith Theegala, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 4.8%): Yes, Sahith Theegala is over-priced, but remember when Talor Gooch was severely over-priced at the Masters, and he went onto finish Top-15 at sub-five percent ownership? I could make an argument that literally dozens of players are over-priced this week. We’re inevitably going to have to play golfers at price tags this week that we are not used to see next to their names. Understanding this fact, why not take a chance on a supreme talent who is coming off the best ball-striking performance of his career at five percent ownership? Do I think this is a good course fit? To be honest, I don’t. I like Sahith on courses where he can get away with a big miss with his driver, but hopefully the tight corridors at St. George’s prompt the former Haskins Award winner to club down off the tee. He did finish seventh at the Valspar after-all, another tight, tree-lined course with a plurality of longer approach shots. I personally believe that Theegala is every bit as good as the Cameron Young’s, Davis Riley’s, and Mito Pereira’s of the world, and while I envision his first win coming at a place more like Detroit Golf Club or TPC Deere Run, this is a pure talent play. He was one shot away from taking down Brooks, Xander, Scheffler, and Cantlay in Phoenix. He’s good enough to win here.

• Doug Ghim, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 8.3%): This one is certainly a little squeamish, but in such a poor field, I’m always going to flock to talent. I do believe that Doug Ghim is a supremely talented player, even if he hasn’t done the best job of demonstrating that just yet on the PGA Tour. Just like Theegala, Ghim is a former Haskins Award winner, which is given to the best collegiate player in the country. It’s a big deal, just run through the list of winners. Many of them become stars. Ghim comes from the same class as Morikawa, Hovland, Scheffler, and Wolff, and had every bit as prestigious a collegiate and amateur career, but he’s failed to put it all together on the PGA Tour. We’ve still seem glimpses. You can’t fake your way into contending at the PLAYERS Championship in back to back years, but it’s really been the putting that has caused his career to not take off yet. Ghim is coming off a performance at the Memorial where he gained 4.2 strokes ball-striking and lost 6.8 strokes around the green and putting, which has become a pretty typical stat line for the former University of Texas standout. At least he now gets to a course where his strongest skill-sets (accurate driving and mid to long iron play) will be accentuated. Let’s hope the putter can cooperate.

Chalk Report

• 10K: My assumption would be that Rory McIlroy is the highest owned player in this range. He is the only player above 10K that appears to be attracting interest in the betting markets, and people seem to love the idea of Hamilton, where he won convincingly in 2019, as a comp course. Even with all the Rory buzz, this is a strong enough range where I do not see him creeping past 24%. 19-23% feels about right. If Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, or Rory McIlroy were on the current run than Scottie Scheffler is on, they would be 30%, every single week, regardless of course fit. For some odd reason, Scheffler continues to go overlooked and under-owned. I have him at 17% this week. I wouldn’t call him a leverage play, but both Rory and Justin Thomas will be more popular. Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, and Cameron Smith all should check in at reasonable ownership. I’ve got Cameron Smith at around 16%, and Lowry and Burns at 13% and 12% respectively. My guess is that many will start with Rory, and select a player in the high 9K range as their second man in. Cam – Lowry doesn’t sound like a terrible idea to me.

• 9K: I hold myself somewhat responsible for the atrocities happening with Matt Fitzpatrick this week. I understand that I have been pumping him up all week, but how is a player coming off a missed cut and his worst putting performance of his career, that has never won on the PGA Tour, and isn’t a DFS darling 22%? That’s an easy pass for me. My condolences to you, Mr. Fitzpatrick, I will never utter your name again on my Sunday show. In my opinion, there is a clear drop off in talent between Tony Finau at 9.4K and Adam Hadwin at 9.3K, but I’m not sure if most folks agree with me. I have Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau, and Adam Hadwin all coming in somewhere between 14 and 18%. I actually thought Corey Conners would be mega-chalk this week, but that does not appear to be the case. I find him to be completely playable at around 17%. Hatton and Finau creeping up to Conners and Hadwin is a huge bummer, but what are you going to do? People are getting smarter and there’s better content out there these days. Harold Varner III is completely mis-priced, but he will be single digits, and Kirk, Mitchell, and Munoz, will also all come in at manageable numbers. All three of those players are over-priced as well, but not egregiously so. I just thought there would be a bigger gap at the top.

• 8K: This is a very scarce range, especially with Patrick Reed and C.T. Pan withdrawing, all of the ownership seems to be centering around Jhonattan Vegas, and I guess… Brendon Todd? I have Vegas at around 16% and Todd at around 13%. What’s interesting is that lineup construction is not leaving this range completely dead. Vegas and Todd will be double digits, but there seems to be consensus that those two (and previously Pan) are the only good plays. Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala, Mackenzie Hughes, and Rasmus Hojgaard will all be single digits. The Pan ownership is going to obviously go to high 7s, not the high 8s. I can’t envision a scenario where any of them cross 10%, and I would imagine all four of them fall closer to 5%. Rasmus will certainly be sub 5%. If you have your heart set on Rory and Fitzpatrick, this group of players is your answer key to acquire any semblance of leverage.

• 7K: This range is absolutely loaded, not with good players, just names. I cannot believe this is where we landed, but I actually have Austin Smotherman and Adam Svensson as near locks to clear double digits, and David Lipsky might get close too! Honestly, I might put Aaron Rai in that category too post Pan withdrawal. I love Smotherman, and I don’t think 12% on him is unplayable, but I continue to be surprised at how much sharper the public is getting. 14% on Svensson feels a bit much. Temper your expectations with that one. There are a few sneaky candidates here to clear double digits, but I’m not sure any of them end up getting there. Patrick Rodgers is a name that people know. Nick Taylor is… Canadian? Even my guy Tyler Duncan is garnering some attention. The joke is probably on me for trying to get Tyler Duncan popular, but he still feels playable up to 10%. I’ve even heard a few Stephan Jaeger whispers as well! Those would the only names with any chance of clearing double digits, and outside of Smotherman, Svensson, and Rai, I doubt any of them will.

• 6K: Adam Schenk was shaping up to be a buzzy play down here, but fortunately for all who felt that was a good idea, he withdrew. To be honest, there is such an incredible amount of players in the low 7s, I don’t see too many guys getting a ton of action down here. Even those who are playing Rory don’t seem to be jamming in another 10K player because there are no obvious mis-prices down here, like a Brendan Steele at the Memorial for example. The only player with any chance of clearing 5% is… Vaughn Taylor? You know the drill, choose your own adventure down here.

Best of luck this week – AL