By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

I do not see a significant advantage for either side of the draw this week, which is truly wonderful news! Thursday morning will definitely see the easiest conditions, but Friday afternoon will see that hardest. The margins are pretty slim too. This is not a week where it is necessary to consider to a wave stack.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Patrick Cantlay, $10,000 (Projected Ownership: 11.2%): I cannot fathom the current disrespect on Patrick Cantlay. Less than three months ago, we were talking about him as potentially the best player in the world. We knew that the Players would be a letdown spot. He had played more golf on the West Coast than any of the other elite players, and I could not care less about the Match Play either. I just gave you the two most variable and least predictive tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule. We’re really going to kill him for not playing well in those two events? Now let’s talk about the Masters. Cantlay was two under par through 14 holes on Friday, just two strokes off the lead, with the easy Par 5 15th still left to play. At this moment in time, I firmly felt that Patrick Cantlay was going to win the Masters.  He proceeded to bogey three of his final four holes, and he was never able to recover. Still, Cantlay gained 6.9 strokes ball-striking, and lost 6.6 strokes putting on the week. He hit the ball well enough to contend, but he simply couldn’t buy a putt. Now he returns to a course that he’s had three Top-7 finishes at in four appearances, and he’s a total after-thought. This is an easy one.

• Corey Conners, $9,700 (Projected Ownership: 18.8%): You will rarely see a player with this high ownership in my core four, but I still do not believe that Cantlay-Conners will be a popular build up top. Oh, and Conners is going to win the tournament. He gained strokes in all four major categories at the Masters en route to a 6th place-finish, and you want to talk about a player that is trending towards a win? This is the week it all comes together for Corey Conners, and I will certainly be there for it.

• Tommy Fleetwood, $8,200 (Projected Ownership: 9.5%): Tommy Fleetwood is becoming a staple in my core four, and I will continue to play him at single digits ownership. I’m confused about what more people need to see from Tommy Lad. He’s now finished Top-25 in four consecutive stroke play tournaments, with two of those being the PLAYERS and the Masters. I tracked Fleetwood closely last week, as him and Rory were one of the few things that I got right. Tommy absolutely flushed it from start to finish, and the stats back it up as well. This was Fleetwood’s best off the tee week since the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. Remember that version of Fleetwood? Elite ball-striker Fleetwood that contended in major championships? He might be back, and we will be monitoring the situation closely.

• Joel Dahmen, $6,800 (Projected Ownership: 4.9%): There were a ton of good options I could have slotted in down here, but there’s just something about Joel this week. Similar to J.J. Spaun, who had nearly an identical price and betting odds, there’s always a player in this range that is way higher in my model than I ever would have imagined. At the Valero, it was J.J. Spaun, and we all remember how that turned out. At the Masters, it was Talor Gooch, and I stupidly balked at the price tag. This week, it’s Joel Dahmen, and I would certainly recommend a sprinkle on his 180/1 outright number as well. The former Corales Punta Cana Championship winner is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he particularly thrives off the tee on sub-7,200 yard courses. Dahmen is an underrated middle iron player as well, and he’s had some nice success putting on over-seeded Bermuda-grass as well. He’s $6,800 for a reason, so don’t crazy like I did on Thomas Pieters last week, but this one feels like a slam dunk.

Chalk Report 

• 10K: There are only five players in this entire range, and it appears that many people are skipping it entirely and jamming together multiple players in the 9K range. Collin Morikawa would be my guess to be the overwhelming chalk about 10K. 20-24% feels about right on Collin, and while he didn’t make my player pool, I can’t say I disagree with where people’s heads are at with this one. Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, and Patrick Cantlay will all fall somewhere between 11 and 17%, with Justin Thomas being on the higher end, and Cameron Smith and Patrick Cantlay being on the lower end. All players in this range are completely manageable, including Morikawa if you are willing to avoid some of the 9K chalk. Patrick Cantlay is the guy for me,

• 9K: This range is absolutely loaded with great options, and where it stands now, there’s a chance that three players (Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Henley) all clear 18%. In a surprising heel turn, I’m playing all of them. I firmly believe that Conners, Fitzpatrick, and Henley are all good chalk, and both stand a very good chance to win this week. I learned my lesson last week at the Masters about pivoting off objectively good plays on courses with sticky history. We all know the deal with Harbour Town. The same types of players succeed here every year, and if I was building a dream golf course for Conners, Fitzpatrick, and Henley, it would look a lot like Harbour Town. I’m not playing any of them together. Instead, they will get mixed and matched with Cantlay and Sungjae, and even if you wanted to play them together, ownership is so spread out at the bottom that it’s doable. Daniel Berger, Joaquin Niemann, and Sungjae Im should all fall somewhere between 16 and 13. Berger is the most under-priced of that bunch, but I was also given word from a friend who followed him at Augusta that he looked hurt and was doubling over a bunker. I’m never one to speculate on injuries, but I’d rather just play Sungjae at $300 cheaper and similar (potentially lower) ownership anyway. No one is playing Jordan Spieth, and for good reason. I said this about Bryson and Hideki last week, but if you are playing 150 lineups is it worth putting Spieth in 5 of them? Probably. For someone like myself that is playing 8-15 lineups, it’s an easy pass.

• 8K: I’m still having a difficult time buying Webb Simpson’s ownership. It really feels too good to be true at this price. I currently have him at 13.3% early on Wednesday morning, but I would not be shocked if it clears 15. I wouldn’t have blinked if I was told he was the highest owned player on the slate. I think you have to play him at this price. T35 at a golf course that was almost playing 8,000 yards last week shouldn’t be seen as a negative for old Webber. Other than that, this range is completely manageable. It seems like people would rather jam in Morikawa or a bunch of 9K players and then drop to that Hadwin and Hoge tier. Kevin Kisner would be my best guess for the only other candidate to touch 15%. I’m surprised I haven’t heard Billy Horschel’s name more this week. He’s a play for me, and I will continue to hammer Tommy Fleetwood at sub-10% ownership. If you prefer Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, and Chris Kirk, they all will be around 10% as well.

• 7K: I talked about this on my Sunday show, but did we really think that Adam Hadwin wouldn’t be mega-chalk after he finished T4 as mega-chalk at the Valero? The Hadwin number is gross to me, and yes, he’s under-priced, but I’d rather go down with Conners, Fitzpatrick, and Henley. Hadwin might be higher than all three of those 9K chalky options. I certainly do understand it. He’s playing great and he’s under-priced, but there are better ways to get down on Hadwin this week than in DraftKings. I found his Top-20 number to be extremely fair, and he’s only a slight favorite to Matt Kuchar in a matchup. Kevin Na, Maverick McNealy, Matt Kuchar, and Tom Hoge will all fall somewhere between 10-14%. All of them are manageable, and I really like McNealy and Na. McNealy just missed out as a core play for me, and I’m perfectly comfortable with his price and ownership. No one else in this range will clear double digits. Maybe Russell Knox, but we are talking 10% maximum. You can really choose your own adventure down here. I will be playing Ian Poulter, Knox, Denny McCarthy, Lucas Glover, Charles Howell III, Patton Kizzire, and C.T. Pan. I could make a fantastic case for all of them, and I’m over-joyed that none appear to be group-think victims.

• 6K: Most weeks, no players in this range clear 10%, and while I think that’s possible this week, my guess would be that Matthew NeSmith comes in at around 11%. I completely understand it. He’s about $500 too cheap, and 11% is completely manageable. Unfortunately the guys that I talk up are never going to be 1% anymore, but Joel Dahmen still won’t crack 6%. Adam Svensson is a buzzy name on Twitter this week, but that is a bit of an echo-chamber play. I don’t see him clearing 6-8% maximum. Luke Donald and Wesley Bryan will get a little run based on course history, but nothing too crazy.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price)

1. Patrick Cantlay, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 11.2%)
2. Corey Conners, $9,700 (Projected ownership: 18.8%)
3. Matt Fitzpatrick, $9,500 (Projected ownership: 18.6%)
4. Sungjae Im, $9,300 (Projected ownership: 13.5%)
5. Russell Henley, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 19.9%)
6. Webb Simpson, $8,800 (Projected ownership: 13.3%)
7. Billy Horschel, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 11.1%)
8. Harold Varner III, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 10.4%)
9. Tommy Fleetwood, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 9.5%)
10. Maverick McNealy, $7,900 (Projected ownership: 12.9%)
11. Kevin Na, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 11.2%)
12. Ian Poulter, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 5.2%)
13. Russell Knox, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 9.3%)
14. Denny McCarthy, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 5.5%)
15. Lucas Glover, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 4.0%)
16. Charles Howell III, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 5.3%)
17. Patton Kizzire, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 3.7%)
18. C.T. Pan, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 3.3%)
19. Joel Dahmen, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 4.9%)
20. Brandt Snedeker, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 1.0%)

As always, best of luck, and enjoy the golf this weekend. – AL