By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather:

This is not typically a tournament that we’ve seen be heavily affected by wind, but this pocket on Thursday afternoon between 2:00 and 5:00 PM looks like some serious stuff. Thursday as a whole expects to play a lot harder than Friday, but the difference between Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon is far more distinct than the difference between Friday morning and Friday afternoon. The wind remains almost completely steady throughout the day on Friday, whereas at 2:00 PM on Thursday, when all of the AM players have finished their round, we see a pretty sizable jump towards 30-32 mph wind gusts and the highest consistent wind speeds (16-20 mph) of the entire week. To me, this is enough of an edge for 65% of my player pool (13/20) to come from the AM/PM wave. It is certainly not enough for me to part with good plays just because they are on the perceived wrong side of the draw, but I will definitely use it as a tie-breaker. At the end of the day, this isn’t the Open Championship. Detroit Golf Club is a tree-lined course that is far from exposed to the elements, but it’s enough of a small edge to factor into my decision making process.

Core 4: My four strongest plays relative to the field

• Tony Finau, $10,600 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 20.6%): It’s completely inconceivable for Tony Finau to go back-to-back, right? Just like it was inconceivable for known losers such as Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele to win twice in a row? While I do not think Tony Finau will win this tournament, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him in contention. His ownership is more tenable than Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, and Max Homa, he has the perceived right side of the draw, and he has been catching a ton of steam in the matchup markets as well. Finau opened as a +120 underdog against Cantlay, and was bet up to +105. He opened as a -110 favorite against Will Zalatoris, and was bet up to -140. He opened as a -125 favorite against Cameron Young, and was bet all the way up to -170 (!!!) in some spots. To this I say, now why is that?

• Adam Hadwin, $8,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.4%): While Hadwin is the perceived “wrong” side of the draw, at this price and ownership, he is far too strong of a play to pass up. I love to look at how players progress throughout the tournament, and while a T38 at last week’s 3M Open looks uninspiring on the surface, Hadwin had one of the best rounds of the day on Sunday. His ball-striking completely came alive in round four, and I expect him to carry that momentum on to Detroit. Hadwin was in the 20/1 range at the John Deere and 3M Open, and while this field features a few better players, I would not have blinked if he was higher priced than Denny McCarthy, Cameron Tringale, Maverick McNealy, Keegan Bradley, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala, or Kevin Kisner. Hadwin was higher priced that Cameron Tringale Davis Riley, and Maverick McNealy last week, played better than all of them, is now returning to a course that he’s already finished fourth at, and yet now, he is lower priced than all of them? Another Windhorst opportunity here, but no need to beat a dead horse.

• Si Woo Kim, $7,900 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.3%): My friend Coby speaks often about the necessity of uncomfortable clicks, and Si Woo Kim certainly falls into that category. While my model does not love him this week, I still believe he is a fantastic play with the upside to win the entire tournament. Si Woo is coming off a T15 at the Open Championship where he gained five strokes on approach. While he has missed three of his last four cuts, the former PLAYERS Championship winner has actually been one of the most consistent cut-makers for the entire season, reaching the weekend in 14 out of 18 stroke play starts this year. While he has yet to pop at Detroit Golf Club, Kim has an immaculate resume (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th) at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club, and he won the AmEx last year at 23 under par. I have zero doubts about his ability to keep up in a birdie fest, and he flashed enough form at St. Andrew’s to lead me to believe that he’s on the precipice of really popping. I may hate myself on Thursday morning, but this has the feel of a slate breaker.

• Rickie Fowler, $7,300 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 5.2%): While I haven’t gotten too much of a chance to talk about Rickie Fowler in any of my podcasts or articles yet, he’s one of my absolute favorite plays on the board. Part of the reason for Fowler’s struggles over the past two years is that he’s been going through some swing changes, while also attempting to add distance. We are finally beginning to see some of that hard work pay off. Fowler has jumped into the top-30 in this field in driving distance over the last two months, and he is coming off his best week off the tee week of the season at the 3M Open. I’ve spoken at length about how Detroit Golf Club is a course that can be overpowered off the tee, and while Fowler will never be mistaken for Bryson, if he drives the ball as well as he did at TPC Twin Cities, he’ll be in position to really score. Fowler remains an excellent long-term wedge player player, and he’s experienced loads of success on Bent-grass as well. He’s been trending towards playability in my model for the past few months, and on this golf course at this price and ownership, it’s the perfect time to roll him out.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: I’ll be honest, I’ve had a very difficult time with this range because I’m struggling to get a feel on Patrick Cantlay. I really haven’t heard him be touted much this week, and absolutely no one is betting him, but all of the projections site still have him high. Cantlay should be high here, and everything about him being high would make sense. He’s the best player in the field, and he has a tremendous track record on easier courses and on Bent-grass. It still just feels like there’s been zero buzz about him. The question this week that everyone seems to be asking is, “To Cam Young or not to Cam Young?” whereas Cantlay feels completely devoid of similar conversations. I’m going to tentatively put Cantlay at 25%, but if he is 19%, I wouldn’t be surprised. Tony Finau almost falls into that same category as well. I feel like there has been absolutely zero conversation about Finau this week, and yet every site I look at has him hovering around 20-22%. I truly do believe there is a chance that both Cantlay and Finau come in lower than their projections. I actually think that Finau certainly will. I still feel strongly that people are starting with Cam Young, Max Homa, or playing them together. I’ve heard rumblings that Cam Young could be as high as 35%, and if that’s the case, Cantlay will certainly be below 25%, and Finau will be closer 18%. The issue with Cam Young is that he has become the token chalk guy, and that guy ALWAYS comes in lower because people get scared at the last minute that they are playing bad chalk. Some sites had Chris Gotterup projected at 28-30%, his ownership turned into a bit, and he ended up at 15%. Cam Young’s ownership is bordering on a bit. No matter what, he will still be the highest owned player on the slate, but I think he finishes at around 26-28%. I would imagine some of the more savvy people that have bet him outright will feel comfortable bailing in DraftKings. My guess is that Zalatoris is the lowest in this range, but not by much. I have him at around 16 or 17%. It really all just comes down to how inflated Young gets.

• $9K: Max Homa will certainly be the highest player in this range. I have him hovering around 20-25%. He’s an easy first man or a second man in, and I’ve even heard him mentioned as a way to pivot off Cameron Young. Narrator voice: Max Homa is not a pivot. If you want to pivot off Cameron Young, you should get weird and play Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley together, or at least go to Cam Davis. The “other Cam” is considered to be over-priced and not in the same tier as the players above him, and I understand that argument. At a macro level, I do not believe that he is better at golf than Cameron Young or Max Homa. Still, I don’t believe the drop off is as much as some would think, or that he is vastly over-priced. Davis at around 15-18% feels about right. Scott, Kisner, and Bradley should all fall between 13 and 8%, with Kisner on the higher end, and Bradley on the lower end. I’ve heard far more chatter about Kisner than Scott and Bradley, but all three certainly present interesting leverage opportunities as the first man in a super balanced lineup. I find the $8K range to be pretty strong, and this is a highly variable tournament completely dependent on putting, after-all. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Cam Young, Homa and Cantlay bomb. Bryson missed the cut here last year at 30% and +750 in the betting markets because… well… he didn’t make enough putts. Life is far too short to get married to the chalk on this golf course.

• $8K: There are only nine players above $9K this week, and there’s a chance that three of them could be above 25%, and none of them will be below 10%. This leads me to believe that many will be starting Cantlay – Cam Young, Cantlay – Homa, Cam Young – Homa, and actually using a Chris Kirk or a Scott Stallings as their third man in. The $8K range will definitely still get some ownership, but there are some nice opportunities here as well. Maverick McNealy, Mark Hubbard, and Davis Riley have emerged as the players sucking up the majority of the ownership, and even so, I would be surprised if any of those players crossed 16%. I would put Riley and Mav at 15% and Hubbard at 14%, if I had to guess. Denny McCarthy and Webb Simpson will be low double digits, but I have them both capped at 13%. Sahith Theegala, Cameron Tringale, Adam Hadwin, Russell Henley, and Gary Woodland will all present some form of leverage depending on how they are utilized. One or two from that group will hit low double digits, but I would surprised if any of those players clear 12% based on the popular lineup constructions I am projecting. My guess is that Theegala and Henley finish at 10%, Hadwin at 9%, Tringale at 8%, and Woodland at 5%.

• $7K: For the second week in a row, the $7K range is absolutely massive, so let’s start by identifying the players that will gobble up the most ownership. Chris Kirk and Scott Stallings will be the highest owned players in this range. I do not believe that either will be out of control, ala Svensson last week, as there are simply too many strong options, but I would imagine that both hover around 15%. Expect that number to potentially double in higher stakes contests. After Kirk and Stallings, the players that I feel pretty comfortable projecting in the double digits are Chris Gotterup, Taylor Pendrith, Troy Merritt, Adam Svensson and Callum Tarren. I was absolutely expecting far more flop lag on Svensson, but people are getting smarter. Same with Gotterup too, I am really not expecting too much of a decrease in Gotterup’s ownership from this week to last. The Pendrith bandwagon has also reached critical mass and I admit that I deserve some of the blame for that. Still, I have all four of these players coming in between 9 and 14%. After that group, I do not not expect to see any other players in the double digits. Here are my three candidates for, “Wait, how is that guy 10%?”: Wyndham Clark, Kurt Kitayama, and Patrick Rodgers. Look for Michael Gligic, Matt Kuchar, Joohyung Kim, and Hank Lebioda to potentially garner more ownership than the projections suggest as well.

• $6K: In a shocking turn of events, everyone is playing Chesson Hadley this week? It’s rare that a $6K player ever reaches double digits these days (unless they have a real cult), but Hadley certainly has that potential. Other than that, there’s nothing really to worry about down here. Here are a few names that will come in higher than their peers, but do not expect any of them to clear 5 or 6%: Peter Malnati, Hayden Buckley, and Lee Hodges. As always, choose your own adventure down here.