By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Starting with Thursday, the wind looks relatively flat throughout the day. There is certainly a breeze, which might cause the course to play a bit harder than expected, but it’s a consistent one from 7:00 AM to 6:00 PM. Throughout those 11 hours, the wind speed stays right in between 10-14 mph. The gusts remain within an 8mph window all day as well. Claiming any edge there would be a reach. Friday is where you ~could~ build an argument that there might be an advantage, but its flimsy at best. There is this pocket between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM with the highest winds and the highest gusts. The issue is that both the AM/PM players will catch a small piece of it. For the AM players, it will come at the very end of their round, and for the PM players, who first tee off at 11:55, it will come at the beginning of their round. I will not be factoring in any weather edge this week.

Core Four: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Russell Henley, $10,100 (Projected ownership: 17.8%): Russell Henley can be a really difficult player to gage. He has his courses (Waialae, Sedgefield, TPC Deere Run), where he seems to always deliver regardless of ownership. Yet then there are weeks where, because it isn’t one of his “courses,” he gets overlooked. Why not the Country Club of Jackson? He’s played here twice, finishing 14th and 54th. Okay, sure, fine. Yet let’s run through some of the key statistics that I believe will be important this week. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranks 11th in this field off the tee on long courses. Think Jackson Country Club is too long for him? If he can be relevant on Sunday at a U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, he can contend here. Henley is also easily the best short iron player in this field, ranking first in proximity from 100-150 yards over the past year. We know that Bermuda-grass is far and away his best putting surface, but he also ranks third in this field tee to green on Bermuda courses as well. I have no doubts about his ability to keep up in a birdie fest either, as the University of Georgia product ranks fourth in birdie or better percentage, and sixth in easy scoring conditions. I get that the putter went cold to end the season, and I get that its first start of the season, but that’s about all I see in terms of detractors. Maybe it’s the price? Henley has been over $9.5K seven times in his career. Here’s how he’s performed:
  • 2018 Greenbrier ($10,400): 10th
  • 2019 Houston Open ($10,100): T61
  • 2020 RSM ($10,100): T30
  • 2021 John Deere ($9,900): T11
  • 2021 Honda Classic ($9,800): T3
  • 2022 Wyndham ($9,800): T5
  • 2021 RSM ($9,600): T22

He’s in the high eights and the low nines often, but his performance as one of the highest priced golfers is surprisingly strong. In seven starts where he has been above $9.5K, he’s never missed a cut, with six top-30 finishes, 3 top-10s, and two top-fives. I know it’s hard to swallow a $10K Henley, but in this field, at this ownership, it’s the sharp play.

• Keegan Bradley, $9,400 (Projected ownership: 9.5%): Here’s another one that I would like to dispel. Can’t play Keegan at $9,400? Let’s look at the twelve times that he’s been above $9K in his career.
  • 2018 CIMB Classic ($9,900): T19
  • 2021 Sanderson Farms ($9,700): MC
  • 2022 Wells Fargo ($9,600): T2
  • 2019 Valspar ($9,400): MC
  • 2021 Zozo ($9,400): T7
  • 2022 Travelers ($9,400): T19
  • 2021 Zurich ($9,300): T4
  • 2021 Valero ($9,200): T8
  • 2022 Rocket Mortgage ($9,200): T44
  • 2019 Greenbrier ($9,100): T24
  • 2019 Houston Open ($9,000): MC
  • 2021 Rocket Mortgage ($9,000): T14

In the 12 times that Keegan has been priced above $9K, he’s made nine cuts, with eight top-25s, four top-10s, two top-fives, and a runner-up. That’s a 75% top-25 rate, and a 25% top-10 rate over a 12 start sample size. The floor is high, the ceiling is there too, and I haven’t even gotten to course fit, or the fact that he’s coming in at under half the ownership of Taylor Montgomery and Scott Stallings! Keegan finished fourth here in 2020, gaining over two strokes in all four major categories. I know he’s a Northeast guy, but he’s also the number one player in this field tee to green on Bermuda-grass courses over the last two years, ahead of even Sam Burns. That surprised me. I guess it makes sense when you really dive in. He’s been a silent assassin at courses like Innisbrook and Bay Hill, and for what it’s worth, his lone major win did come on Champion Bermuda greens in a Southeastern climate. Bradley remains one of the best iron players, drivers of the ball, and par five scorers in this entire field. I urge you to practice common sense before deciding to play Taylor Montgomery and Scott Stallings at close to double the ownership.

• Gary Woodland, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 5.6%): This is another ownership play. Have we really reached the point where Trey Mullinax is four times more likely to outperform Gary Woodland over four rounds of golf. If your answer to that question is yes, we see the world in very different ways. In all seriousness, this is a really good spot for Woodland. He’s strong off the tee on long courses, an adequate wedge player, and one of the best long iron players in this entire field. I expect him to feast on the par fives and really gain a leg up on the longer par fours as well. I do think that Gary can play anywhere, but at least recently, Bermuda has been his jam. Three of his four top-tens, and both of his top-fives from last season came on Bermuda-grass courses. He’s coming off a strange performance at the Fortinet where he lost 2.9 strokes off the tee, but he gained 4.6 strokes on approach. I’m not quite sure what was going on with the driver last week, but he should be able to get away with murder here off the tee. It’s the 4.6 on approach that I’m choosing to focus on. Gary wouldn’t be the first under the radar former major winner to come out of nowhere to win the Sanderson Farms at 60/1 (Eyeball-emoji). Yes, I’m getting major Sergio vibes from this play. Their lead-in form and statistical profile is shockingly similar (Gary’s actually been a little better). Take advantage of the Mullinax groupthink here. This is a layup.

• Austin Smotherman, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 5.3%): I’ve always got a soft spot for Smotherman, and his price never seems to change, regardless of how bad the field is. The SMU product is a macro buy for me, and I genuinely believe that he is going to be relevant on Sunday in a PGA Tour event very soon. This could be week for the 25-year-old, who over a year plus sample size, is the second best long-iron player in this entire field. He’s no slouch off the tee either, especially on long courses, nor is he a poor wedge player. In terms of birdie looks generated inside 15 feet per round, Smotherman ranks seventh. Surely, a sign of what’s to come. We haven’t seen the upside with the putter yet, but I would not be so quick to assign him a member of team no putt. I’ve heard rumblings he’s been working hard at that aspect of his game, and the 3.5 strokes he gained putting at the Fortinet bring credence to that. His win on the Korn Ferry Tour came on a Southeastern Bermuda course, and his best finish on the PGA Tour came at a driver heavy course with little architectural identity. Everything looked great at the Fortinet en route to a 25th-place finish, and yet his price essentially stayed the same in an even weaker field. This will be the week that the Smother-man puts himself on the map.

Chalk Report

• $10K Range: Sam Burns is an interesting case study this week. I would actually argue that he is both under-priced and under-owned in this field at $10,700 and ~33%. This reminds me a bit of Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open, I think only the difference is that there is actually less interest in confidence in Burns. My numbers actually suggest that the gap between Burns and the rest of this field is even greater than what Rahm was up against in Mexico. That Mexico field had Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, and Patrick Reed, amongst others. Sahith Theegala and J.T. Poston are the next highest priced players after Burns! I haven’t made a judgement call on Burns yet, but I actually do endorse rolling him out here aggressively. My guess on the hesitation would be that he’s “hungover” from the Presidents Cup? There may be some truth to that, but there’s no real way to quantify it. I am not expecting a massive difference in ownership between the other $10K players (Theegala, Poston, and Henley). I actually expect all of them to fall between 15 and 20%.

• $9K Range: The $9K range certainly presents some opportunity, and conversely, displays the groupthink that can occur in the Fall swing when only a few content voices in the industry are present. I have Scott Stallings and Taylor Montgomery both hovering around 20%. Emiliano Grillo and Davis Riley will both be in the mid teens, but lower than Stallings and Montgomery. I expect Denny to be in the low double digits. Denny is always over-owned, but the fact that he is objectively over-priced will keep ownership down. I have Bezuidenhout and Keegan falling somewhere between 7 and 12%, as the two lowest owned players in this range.

• $8K Range: The DFS landscape has changed. I’m a little surprised that Trey Mullinax is in the high teens coming off a missed cut, but he’s played well here before, and contended in a FedEx Cup playoff event recently on a Southeastern course with the same agronomy. I’m not a Taylor Moore guy, but others appear to be. I have him coming in as the next highest owned player in this range, at a robust ~16ish%. After that would probably be Thomas Detry, who I have hovering around 15%. Those would be the only three players in the $8K range of potential concern. It appears the way people are building leaves a lot of dead weight here. Sepp Straka, Adam Hadwin, and Gary Woodland will all be single digits. One of Harris English, Chris Kirk, and Wyndham Clark could sneak past 10%, but there’s a decent chance all fall between 8 and 10% as well. One, if not multiple, of those five aforementioned players will hit, and they are all under-owned. I’m riding with Woodland and Kirk, but one could make a conceivable case for any of them. Moore and Mullinax are not two or three times more likely to succeed this week.

• $7K Range: I was a little surprised by this, but there is no overwhelming chalk in this range There are certainly a few players that will creep into the low double digits, but I currently do not have a single player in the entire $7K range currently coming in over 13%! Here are the players that I do believe will crack low double digits: Justin Suh, Alex Smalley, Adam Svensson. Maybe Brendan Steele, Mark Hubbard, Dean Burmester, Byeong Hun-An, Stephan Jaeger get close as well. None of those players catching some late steam would be all that surprising, but “steam” is relative. I would monitor the aforementioned players, but none them must be outright avoided on the sole concern of ownership.

• $6K Range: As always, choose your own adventure down here! There are a few players that could crack 8%, but I would be shocked if anyone below $7K came in above 8ish%. Here are the buzzy names that will be closer to 5 or 6% (as opposed to zero): Austin Smotherman, Carl Yuan, Chesson Hadley, MJ Daffue, John Huh, Adam Long, Adam Schenk, Sam Ryder. Assume anyone else not mentioned will be somewhere between zero and four percent.