By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three tournaments already this year, including the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the U.S. Open, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

The key thing to remember with the weather this week is that it’s even more subject to change than in the U,S. My friend was in Scotland just a few weeks ago, and he spoke about how the days that were supposed to be windy turned out calm, and the days that were supposed to be calm turned out extremely windy. For this reason, I will not be stacking in any direction. With that being, if you have the cahones to trust wind finder, I would give an edge to the PM/AM wave. The wind is pretty steady all day on Thursday, and by the time it picks up in the evening, all players will be off the course. On Friday however, the wind really does start to pick up at 1:00 PM. It’s reasonable to assume that Friday afternoon will be the worst time to be on the golf course. While I will not be playing any draw bias, I’ll still monitor monitor very closely how this plays out. If the forecast actually holds steady, I will certainly be more inclined to factor in the weather at the Open.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,600 (PM/AM) (Projected Ownership: 10.9%): Patrick Cantlay at the Scottish Open has to be the most obvious DFS layup of all time. As the highest owned player on the slate, Cantlay had an extremely public meltdown, costing many people (myself included) a fair amount of money! So Patrick Cantlay sucks now, right? We are getting an absolutely massive discount based on an overreaction to one poor round. Cantlay has been awesome this year, and he’s two strokes away from having three wins on the season. Now we are getting him on a wide open birdie fest, and he’s the lowest owned player in the 9K range. If you don’t play Patrick Cantlay this week at this price and ownership, we have very different philosophies on how to play DraftKings.

• Joaquin Niemann, $8,600 (AM/PM) (Projected Ownership: 8.8%): This is another lay up to me. I am extremely high on Joaquin Niemann’s talent, I think he’s capable of winning majors, and any time he is single digits owned, he will be a core play for me. It seems like he is getting squeezed here for no real good reason. I’m not putting much stock at all into a missed cut at the Travelers, as he still gained strokes ball-striking and lost 3.9 strokes putting. While Niemann is lacking thus far in links experience, he possesses all of the tools to succeed on these types of golf courses.

• Corey Conners, $8,300 (AM/PM) (Projected Ownership: 9.5%):  Another example of capitalizing on an a great player at single digits ownership! I think this is a great buy low spot for Corey Conners, who is coming off a MC at the U.S. Open where he gained 2.5 strokes off the tee, 2.5 on approach, and lost 6.8 strokes putting. Conners actually hit the ball incredibly well at Brookline despite getting the wrong side of the draw, and unfortunately, he had his worst putting performance in nearly two years. Still, at a macro level, Conners’ putting has improved, and I am highly encouraged by the fact that he finished 15th last year at Royal St. George’s.

• Gary Woodland, $7,200 (AM/PM) (Projected Ownership: 3.6%): I pretty much watched the entire U.S. Open from start to finish, and I still wouldn’t be able to provide you with one Gary Woodland moment. Nevertheless, he is coming off an extremely quiet top-10 at Brookline where he gained 4.8 strokes off the tee, 2.6 on approach, and 2.9 around the green. He actually hit the ball well enough to contend, but struggled to find any success with the flat-stick. Despite lacking a ton of high end finishes on links courses, Woodland still finds a way to make the cut nearly every year at the Open, and he is one of the very few players at this price point that I believe could actually win the win the tournament. He’s shown high-end upside with multiple top-fives earlier this season, and I would be pretty shocked if he cracks 5% ownership. This feels like another no-brainer to me.

Chalk Report: 

• 10K: The 10K range feels pretty flat to me. I do not see one player emerging as overwhelming chalk, nor a clear pivot option. I would guess that Rahm ends up at 18%, JT at 17%, Scheffler at 16%, and Fitzpatrick at 14%. I know that was oddly specific, but you can really mix and match who you want up here. The reason none of these guys are going to garner an untenable amount of ownership is A.) The 9K range is really strong, and many will skip the $10K entirely and begin with Xander and B.) I would be very shocked if too many people jammed two of these players in together. I think an interesting way to get unique this week would be with a super aggressive stars and scrubs build. A JT-Fitzpatrick start still leaves you with $7,350 spread out across four spots, and I do think the $6K range is strong this week. In any right, I believe that all four players in the $10K range will fall between 13 and 20%.

• 9K: Xander Schauffele would probably be my guess as the highest owned player on the slate. Even so, I don’t see him clearing 23ish percent. He will still be the highest in this range, but there are far too many good players around him for his ownership to get out of control. After Xander, my guess is that Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, and Cameron Smith all fall somewhere between 18 and 13%, with Burns on the higher end, and Morikawa on the lower end. Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama would be my guesses for the lowest owned players in this range. I don’t think Hideki will be in the single digits, but Cantlay might be.

• 8K: It appears as if Max Homa will be the highest owned player in this range, with Jordan Spieth not far behind. My guess would be that Homa and Spieth come in somewhere between 15 and 18%, with Homa on the higher end and Spieth on the lower end. After that, it gets pretty flat. I would guess that Viktor Hovland, Ryan Fox, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, and Cameron Young all finish in the low double digits. I’m not sure any of those players clear 14%, but Fox and Fleetwood are the most likely to catch some late steam. Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, and Billy Horschel will all be in the high single digits. Niemann might creep up past 10%, but I would cap him at 12%, and even that feels like a stretch.

• 7K: The 7K range is quite strong this week, so again, I do not see one player emerging as overwhelming chalk. Here would my guesses for the players that clear double digits: Tyrrell Hatton (barely), Keegan Bradley (barely), Keith Mitchell, Mito Pereira, Robert MacIntyre, and Aaron Rai. Aaron Rai is the only player in this entire range that has the legitimate potential to clear 15%, and I’m still not convinced that he gets there. Everyone else not mentioned should be single digits. I think it’s in play that someone like Jordan Smith or Robert MacIntyre catches some late steam, but again, I have them capped at 12-14%.

• 6K: I do think people will be on to the fact that Callum Tarren is incredibly under-priced at $6,300, and he will be the highest owned player in this range. When I say highest owned player, we are still talking 5-8%. The only other players with the potential to clear 5% in this range are Matthew NeSmith, Adri Arnaus, Victor Perez, and maybe Antoine Rozner? I’ve definitely seen some Arnaus and Perez buzz, but still, I would be pretty shocked if either of them cleared double digits.

Best of luck this week – AL