By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’m not really seeing much with the weather this week. Absolutely ideal scoring conditions.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Aaron Wise, $9,900 (Projected ownership: 18.1%): I wrote to one of my group chats on Sunday afternoon that Aaron Wise was my pick for the most tipped and highest owned player this week. What’s not to like? Vegas guy? Check. Course history? Check (three top-15 finishes, including an eighth last year where he gained over a stroke in all four major categories). President’s Cup snub? Check. Statistical course fit? Check (sixth overall in my model, top-25 in long-term wedge play, seventh in approach, fifth in easy scoring conditions, fourth in opportunities gained, fourth in birdies or better gained). Bent-grass form? Check. Vegas form? Check (fifth at the CJ Cup last year to go along with all of his strong finishes at TPC Summerlin). All of these reasons are likely very obvious to most DFS players, and yet I have his ownership coming in lower than Cantlay, Sungjae, Tom Kim, and Cam Davis. The only conceivable answer for this is that he’s a victim of his price. The best number available in the betting markets on Wise this week is 25/1, and at most books, he’s closer to 18/1! I still believe that if Aaron Wise was 30/1 this week he would rival Tom Kim as the most tipped player. The Kim over Wise choice is reflected in ownership as well. For the record, Wise has been priced above $9.9K twice in his career: the 2018 Mayakoba, where he finished 10th, and the 2019 Bermuda, where he finished third. I relish the opportunity to catch an ownership break on a player that makes way too much sense to not be chalk.

• Tom Hoge, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 12:0%): I’ve already written and spoken about my love for Tom Hoge on various platforms this week, so I’ll keep it simple. From just purely looking at the numbers, Tom Hoge is the best wedge player in this field, and there’s actually an argument that he’s the best in the world. TPC Summerlin is a track meet that is all about maximizing birdie opportunities with scoring clubs, and no one in this field outside of Mito Pereira generates more birdie looks inside 15 feet per round than Hoge. The two tournaments where I have the most similar model to this week are the American Express and the AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Tom Hoge finished first and second at those two tournaments last year. Unsurprisingly, he also has a strong record at Summerlin, with a 14th and a 24th in his last two appearances. Also unsurprisingly, he’s gained over three strokes on approach in his last two starts, which can easily be explained by the fact that Summerlin is a course that puts a wedge in your hands often. Coming off a 12th-place finish at the Fortinet where he gained 1.3 strokes off the tee and 4.2 strokes on approach, Hoge checks the recent form box as well. We also know that he took his President’s Cup snub VERY personally. I am certainly not suggesting that Hoge is sneaking up on anyone this week. Based on the case that I made, he should be chalk, but the reason why he isn’t is because he’s over-priced. Again, that just makes me like him more. He was $9,300 at the Fortinet and finished 12th. The only other time he was over $8.5K? A win at Pebble Beach.

• Adam Hadwin, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 12.0%): If you’re starting to notice a theme here, I’m really confused as to why Adam Hadwin isn’t chalk this week. Again, I’m not suggesting that he’s sneaking up on anyone, but 12.0% (this number usually rises a bit after the column, but not by much) is more than palatable. Outside of Cantlay and Sungjae, Hadwin has the strongest course history in the field. In six appearances at TPC Summerlin, he’s recorded five top-35s, and three top-10s, including a sixth last year. He’s never gained less than 1.8 strokes putting here, so there’s something about these greens that really fit his eye. I already mentioned the American Express as a leading indicator event, and Hadwin has gone 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 25th, and 32nd in Palm Springs. An 18th, 16th, and 39th at Pebble Beach aren’t bad either. Neither is a runner-up at the Fortinet. Hadwin loves the West coast, he loves birdie-fests, he loves Bent-grass, and more specifically, he loves TPC Summerlin. I can even picture him sitting at home watching Corey Conners bring shame to the great nation of Canada, thinking how it should have been him donning the black and gold at Quail Hollow. Coming off a 45th at the Fortinet where he gained 3.6 strokes on approach, he now travels to his favorite course on Tour. I generally don’t love playing anyone with double digits ownership under $8K, but I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around why Hadwin is not mega-chalk this week. Unlike Wise and Hoge, Hadwin is not over-priced. He’s actually under-priced. This is a steal.

• Chris Kirk, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 6.2%): I guess I have to keep saying it. I’m really surprised that Chris Kirk isn’t more popular, especially at this price. DFS players love Chris Kirk, and maybe I’m off on the ownership and he will catch some late steam, but I just haven’t heard his name a whole lot this week. This is mystifying to me. He’s top-15 in easy scoring conditions, opportunities gained, sand saves, and proximity from 100-150. He’s had a tremendous amount of success on Bent-grass, plus some really nice finishes in the desert as well. I guess the knock would be his course history? Still, he’s made four of five cuts, with no finishes better than 36th. He always makes the cut, but he’s yet to really pop. Would I take a 36th out of Kirk at $7,300? I wouldn’t be overjoyed with that, but his median finish feels way higher than the players that he’s priced around. If this tournament gets played 100 times, I don’t believe there’s a player below $7.5K that finishes in the top-40 more than Chris Kirk. He’s coming off an extremely quiet T30 at the Sanderson Farms where he gained 4.1 on approach and was neutral in the other three major categories. That is a stat line with a giant buy sign for me, as every single one of my players this week are coming in with solid iron form. The only concern here is that he catches late steam, as the ownership feels too good to be true. Keep this one quiet!

Chalk Report: My ownership breakdown for every range

• $10K: As expected, Patrick Cantlay will clear 30% with ease this week. I wouldn’t even be shocked if he dips past 35%. We had a somewhat similar situation with Cantlay at the Rocket Mortgage, and he came in even higher than the projections. His course history here is far stronger than it was at the Detroit event as well. The only reason reason why I would be surprised to see him sneak up to the high thirties is that people love Sungjae Im this week. The ownership break on Sungjae over Cantlay is minimal. I have Sungjae coming in at 28%, and I would not be remotely shocked to see him cross the 30% threshold. Max Homa is the player that really provides the relief. I have him coming in at an extremely palatable 16%, about half of Cantlay.

• $9K: Tom Kim is the bell of the ball this week. I have him clearing 20% comfortably, although 25% would surprise me. Next up are Aaron Wise and Cam Davis, who I both have in the 18% range. Taylor Montgomery and Emiliano Grillo will not be far behind in the mid to high teens. I have Tom Hoge coming in around 12%, and Alex Noren as the only player above $9K that is a lock to be in the single digits. I would imagine that Cantlay – Kim or Sungjae – Kim are extremely popular builds this week. I’ll be curious to see how many are daring enough to skip the $10K range entirely and begin with two players here. That’s my strategy this week.

• $8K: This is the money making range. Since so many are playing one of Cantlay and Sungjae, while also feeling the need to jam in a Kim, Wise, Davis, Montgomery, or Grillo, this creates a natural dead zone in the eights. Taylor Pendrith will be the highest owned player in this range, at around 14-17%. I actually do not see any other player in this range clearing 12%! If I had to rank these other seven players from highest to lowest ownership, I would go: Brian Harman (10%), Si Woo Kim (9.5%), Dean Burmester (9.5%), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (7.5%), Keith Mitchell (7.5%), Denny McCarthy (7%), Maverick McNealy (7%), J.T. Poston (6.5%). One of those players is going to finish top-10, maybe multiple. Nailing this range is going to win someone a ton of money this week, and I think you’d be silly to not include at least one of these players.

• $7K: There are a few names in here that I would approach with caution. Let’s start at the top. I have Thomas Detry coming in around 15%. I was really surprised at the price, and I’m not sure I would have blinked if he was $8.8K this week. I can’t knock the play. I also believe that Mito Pereira is severely mis-priced and should be $9K. I’m pleasantly surprised to see that he is coming in around 11%. I have Adam Hadwin at around 12% too, and as previously mentioned, I believe that’s actually low for what he should be at this price. I personally love the high sevens this week, and I will be deploying a 7% Rickie Fowler and a 5% Matt Kuchar as well. Low double digits on K.H. Lee and Taylor Moore are easy passes for me. Same with a 13% Matthew NeSmith. No thanks. I would be more inclined to play a 10% Kurt Kitayama, who I believe provides far more upside than NeSmith. As we move down below $7.5K, things really start to flatten out. Mark Hubbard is the only player in the low sevens that I can confidently say will clear 10%, and even so, I would be surprised if he clears 13%. There’s a chance that an Andrew Putnam or Chris Kirk sneak up close to double digits, but don’t expect any crazy jumps down here.

• $6K: As usual, there’s nothing really to be concerned around here. The highest owned player in this range will be Chris Gotterup, and I would still be surprised if he clears 8%. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! A few other names down here carrying some buzz? Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Scott Piercy (course history!), Ben Griffin (this is a mis-price). I would still be fairly surprised if any of those players crossed 6%. Choose your own adventure!

Best of luck this week! – AL