By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’m not seeing much as far as weather goes this week. The area certainly has received a fair amount rainfall this month, as well as some in the last couple of days as well. Expect the course to be a touch softer on Thursday and Friday, and then firm up over the weekend.

Core 4: The four players I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Tony Finau, $9,600 (Projected ownership: 21.5%): As much as I love Rory McIlroy this week, I can’t understand the price discrepancy between him and Tony Finau for the life of me. Both players are starting at four under, and by my numbers, possess similar chances to win. Yet Finau will be lower to similarly owned and is $1200 dollars cheaper. If they were the same price, or Finau was even $200 or $300 cheaper, I would probably play Rory, but $1200 feels a bit irresponsible. Finau essentially had one bad round last week, and I love how he closed the tournament. He ended his chances to actually win the event on Thursday, but still fought hard, gaining over two strokes to field on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. That’s the type of mentality I’m looking for this week. Finau is starting six strokes back of Scottie Scheffler, and if Scheffler plays well on Thursday, that number is subject to increase. I need a player at a palatable price that I know is going to score, even if Scheffler runs away with it. Finau does fall into the same category as Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele, as players whose baseline does decrease on Bermuda-grass courses, but he still managed a top-five in Memphis. Time and again, we’ve seen recent form trump “course fit” at East Lake. Cantlay has been even worse than Finau on Bermuda, and despite poor history here, he won last year because he was in peak form. Since the Open Championship, Finau has been the best player in the world, and because of one throwaway round, we’re getting a nice discount.

• Viktor Hovland, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 18.7%): For the third week in a row, I’m writing up Viktor Hovland. The BMW Championship was a certainly a disappointment, but he still found a way to sucker me back with a Sunday 66. Something looked completely off with his irons Thursday through Saturday, but they magically came back to life on Sunday, when he ranked third in the field on approach. Last year at East Lake, Hovland gained a whopping 8.1 strokes on approach, leading the field. I like the young Norwegian on golf courses where he has a long iron in his hands often, and East Lake fits that bill. Over 30% of approach shots at the Donald Ross design have come from over 200 yards, and over a large sample size, Hovland is a top-five long iron player in the world. He’s incredibly straight off the tee for how long he is as well, and I trust him to hit fairways here too. This is a ball-striker’s course through and through, and I believe it suits Hovland’s skill-set to a tee. He climbed up the leaderboard here last year, and something clearly clicked for him on Sunday. No time to jump off now.

• Joaquin Niemann, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 16.7%): Let’s make it three weeks in a row for Joaquin Niemann too. Simply put, he’s finished top-15 in the previous two weeks, and is once again priced responsibly and will be under-owned for what he should be. The young Chilean is coming off an eighth last week at the BMW Championship where he gained 2.7 strokes off the tee, and 3.8 strokes on approach. Despite never getting mentioned as one of the best drivers in the world, Niemann remains a cheat code off the tee. He’s not lost strokes off the tee since last year’s Houston Open, and he’s gained over a stroke off the tee in every start since the Honda Classic. The irons are a little more volatile, but present even more upside. Niemann has gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in four out of his last six starts. I’ll admit, his course history here has been objectively terrible, but so was Patrick Cantlay’s last year before he won. On paper, East Lake should actually be an incredible fit for Niemann. I’ve already alluded to his acumen off the tee, but it’s also worth mentioning that the reigning Genesis Invitational champion significantly raises his baseline off the tee on courses with narrow fairways. He’s long, straight, a great long iron play, and has experienced plenty of success on Bermuda, despite receiving the moniker as someone you only want to play on Bent-grass. Niemann has been finishing top-15 every week, and yet he continues to slip through the cracks. Once again, I’ll be there.

• K.H. Lee, $6,000 (Projected ownership: 24.1%): I never play K.H. Lee. I think the “TPC Lee” narrative is overrated, and he remains a very hard player for me to predict from a statistical standpoint. With that being said, while everyone gravitates to Aaron Wise and Adam Scott this week, I see opportunity with the recent Byron Nelson winner. Lee is coming off a fifth at the BMW Championship where he gained 1.3 strokes off the tee and 2.6 strokes on approach, charging up the leaderboard on Sunday in glorious fashion. There’s really nothing about this course that screams KH Lee to me, but the fail safe method in the playoffs has always been to ride the hot hand. You could probably make an argument that everyone in this field is playing “well,” but Lee is one of only five players to finish top-20 in both Memphis and Delaware (K.H. Lee, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im). Not to mention the fact that he will carry far less ownership than Aaron Wise and Adam Scott.

Chalk Report

• $10K: This happened last year with Patrick Cantlay too, but the highest priced player will not garner much ownership this week. I have Scottie Scheffler currently coming in at 16.5%, which would make him the second lowest player in this range, ahead of only Cameron Smith. $13.6K is a hefty price to pay, but with multiple solid options below $6K, I’m a little surprised that Scheffler isn’t garnering more interest. Scheffler features one of the highest floors in golf, and it would take a really poor performance from him to finish outside of the top-five. On the other end of the spectrum, I have Xander Schauffele as the highest owned player in this range. He’ll be in the 26-28% range, and it’s hard to argue with the immaculate course history. Next up will be Rory at 25ish percent. I have Cantlay next in the 18-20% range, Rahm and Scheffler in the 16-18% range, and Cam Smith bringing up the rear at 14 to 16%. I do not believe that there will be overwhelming chalk in this range. All things considered, ownership here is relatively flat. I don’t even foresee Xander getting out of control and crossing the 30% threshold.

• $9K: Similar story in the $9K range, which I also believe will be relatively flat. I have Tony Finau and Sungjae Im as the two highest owned players in this range, both coming in somewhere between 19 and 23%. Justin Thomas and Sam Burns won’t be too far behind, coming in somewhere between 16 and 20%, and Cameron Young will bring up the rear at around 16%.

• $8K: I’m not really seeing anything too concerning in the 8’s either. I have Corey Conners as the highest owned in this range at around 23%. Next up will be Viktor Hovland in the 18-20% range, then Niemann and Fitzpatrick, who will both be between 14 and 18%. There is certainly some “leverage” to be had with Hideki Matsuyama, who I believe will be one of the lowest owned players on the entire slate. Last year, only two players came in under 10%. There is less overwhelming chalk this year compared to last, and I currently don’t have any player in the single digits. Hideki would be the best candidate to get there though.

• $7K: I’ve got Scott Stallings and Collin Morikawa coming in as the two highest owned players in this range, but I expect neither to clear 25%. Next up would be Spieth at an even 20%. There’s been a lot of buzz about Sepp Straka in the betting markets, but as it stands on Wednesday morning, I haven’t seen that popularity translate to DraftKings. I have Straka coming in at 16%, which will be a touch higher than Homa, who seems to be getting squeezed this week.

• $6K (and below): The vast majority of overwhelming chalk can be found down here, which provides some insight into how people are building this week. Most seem to be taking advantage of how cheap players like Aaron Wise and Adam Scott are. Upwards of 50% of lineups will have one of Scott and Wise, and some will have both. Jamming in Wise and Scott allows you to play Rory and Xander together, or even Rory and Scheffler or Cantlay together! I have Wise coming in at a cool 35%, with Adam Scott not far behind in the low 30’s. Wise feels like a lock to be the highest owned player on the slate, and I can’t argue with it. He is the most mis-priced player on the board, and I have a hard time understanding why he is cheaper than Brian Harman, K.H. Lee, and Sahith Theegala. The argument for fading Wise is that your pathway to success this week becomes very easy if he happens to stink. Yet the argument for playing him is that it’s a clear mis-price, you can still get different by leaving money on the table, and a 5.8K and 30% owned Daniel Berger was in the optimal last year. After Wise and Scott, I’m seeing some sneaky ownership on JT Poston, who I expect to clear 20% easily. KH Lee, Sahith Theegala and Brian Harman will be above 20% as well, but Poston, Lee, Theegala and Harman will be 8-15 percentage points lower than Scott and Wise. They aren’t sneaking up on anyone, but they do offer a legitimate break from Wise and Scott. The real break is coming from Billy Horschel and Tom Hoge however. I have Billy in the 18% range, and Hoge in the 15-16% range.

Best of luck this week! – AL