By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three tournaments already this year, including the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the U.S. Open, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather:

I’m really not seeing much here. It looks like Thursday between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM might get a little dicey towards the end of the AM wave and the start of the PM wave. Still, I don’t see an advantage playing out for either side with maximum wind speeds of 10 mph. Friday looks to be absolutely pristine conditions, and I would expect lower scores in round two. I don’t see an edge worth pursuing with the weather this week.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Xander Schauffele, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 14.8%): Xander Schauffele was one of the highest owned players at the U.S. Open, and the experience of playing him was actually far worse than the result. Xander rallied to a T14 after a disappointing Saturday eliminated his chances from actually winning the tournament. He had one terrible round in really difficult conditions. Xander is good on hard on courses, but when it gets really brutal (and windy) like it was on Saturday, he tends to fold. The same thing happened at the Players. Morikawa could probably be put into this category as well. Regardless, everything I saw from Xander outside of that one round was positive. He gained strokes in all four major categories for the third time in four starts. Gaining strokes across the board is a lot more rare than you would think, and Xander does it routinely. This is the type of event that I could see Xander winning, not necessarily because I love the course fit (although he has experienced loads of success on this putting surface), but it has very similar vibes to Phoenix in terms of the risk/reward aspect and spectator engagement. Winning the week after he let many people down at a major would also be very Xander Schauffele. I expect him to contend this week.

• Webb Simpson, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 8.5%): There’s no way for Webb Simpson to compete with Davis Riley, Aaron Wise, and Mito Pereira for the hearts of DFS players anymore, and his ownership reflects that. Webb is yesterday’s news, and the three flavors of the week are priced right above him. I’m still not ready to stick a fork in the seven-time PGA Tour winner. He missed the cut last week by one stroke, and played one par five in four over par. He was rock-solid at the PGA Championship, and delivered at Colonial as well. He’s not the automatic top-20 that he used to be at these short, positional golf courses, but that is really beginning to get baked into his price. The infrastructure with Webb still feels in place, I don’t see anything overly concerning statistically, and I do still believe he is capable of stealing another win on this type of golf course.

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 7.9%): I was fairly surprised to see how well Christiaan Bezuidenhout rated out for me this week, but here we are. This is a bit of a pure model play for me, as at this ownership number and price point, my numbers suggest he is the best value on the board. Over a large sample size, Bez is actually a top-five short iron player in this entire field, and he’s coming off a week at the Colonial where he gained 5.2 strokes on approach. My one concern with Bez is that I’m not sure if he has the upside to win. He’s still yet to find himself in a legitimate position to win on the PGA Tour. Still, I feel comfortable about the win equity that I have at the top, and Bez feels like a lock to finish top-40. In 12 starts this season, he’s only missed two cuts, and the ball-striking continues to trend up. I played him at Colonial at a similar price and ownership where he finished T15. I’d expect a similar result.

• Kevin Streelman, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 5.9%): Given the course history, I’m surprised that Kevin Streelman isn’t a little more popular. I mean, really guys, what’s the actual difference between Brian Harman and Kevin Streelman? I like Harman plenty, but give me the $1300 dollar discount on Streels. He’s finished top-15 in nearly 50% of his starts here, including a win in 2014 and a runner-up in 2020. Yes, he has missed his last two cuts, but the ball-striking actually looked good for him at the Memorial. He gained 0.6 OTT, 1.5 on APP and only missed the cut because he lost 3.9 with the flat-stick. 16th at the Honda, 22nd at the Players, 7th at the Valspar, and 18th at the Valero show a player that can still compete, and I do believe that TPC River Highlands is a spot where we can put stock into course history. I find it an extremely palatable price for a player that often delivers here.

Chalk Report

• 10K: The $10K ranged is loaded with solid options, and to be honest, I could see some late ownership movements from what I have currently projected. This is one to monitor, because I’m having a difficult time getting a genuine read on where people are at, and I’ve seen some giant number discrepancies between sites. I feel pretty comfortable that Patrick Cantlay will be the highest owned player in this range, which is a genuine surprise to me, but the “play Cantlay everywhere but majors” narrative is strong. I do believe that he will clear 20%, but I do not see him hitting 25%. Justin Thomas would have been up next at 15-18% but he withdrew from the tournament early this morning, After that, I’m actually not sure that there will be a giant difference between Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, and Xander Schauffele this week. Rory is probably the hardest for me to gage. I’ve seen him as high as 21% and as low as 9%. I don’t believe either of those numbers are correct. My guess is that he falls somewhere in the middle. I currently have Scottie Scheffler hovering around in that same range, but I would not be shocked if he catches some late steam. Scheffler continues to go under-owned every single week. If Rory, JT, or Rahm were as automatic as Scheffler is right now, they’d be 25% plus every week regardless of price point. For some reason, people still have a hard time buying in. I currently have Xander at around 15%, but I always have to add a tax to him. Xander makes lineups feel safe, and he’s fairly priced. I wouldn’t be shocked if he makes a late push closer to 17-19%, especially with the JT withdrawal. This leaves Sam Burns, who may end up being the odd man out. Still, Burns has delivered for enough people this year, and built a deserving reputation as a winner, to really be forgotten. I still have him in the low double digits.

• 9K: The $9K range feels pretty flat to me with a few clear pivot plays. I do not see one player emerging here as overwhelming chalk. Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Keegan Bradley and Seamus Power might all fall between 10 and 16%. The buzz on Spieth this week seems to be quelled. Yes, this is a Spieth course that he has won at before, but his disappointing performances at majors this year has definitely started to turn folks off. Two years ago, if mega-chalk player missed the cut, he was generally a lock to be in the single digits the next week. That will not be the case with Sungjae Im however. People are just too smart now, and they understand that its more than likely he will bounce back. I think there will actually be more of a flop-lag on Tony Finau. He could definitely end up in the single digits. Niemann and Power (especially Power) are two popular bets that should both come in close to 15%. I don’t think that people want to pay this price for Harold Varner or Tommy Fleetwood coming off missed cuts. There is certainly leverage to be had with both of those options. Varner will be high single digits, but Fleetwood might come in close to 5%. I imagine readers know this, but Brooks Koepka withdrew.

• 8K: Let’s be honest here. Mito Pereira, Davis Riley, and Aaron Wise are all in this range. That’s where your ownership will be. All three players have built up quite the DFS bandwagon this season, and deservedly so. The fact that all three of them are priced next to each other will help with ownership, as I do not imagine too many people will jam them all in a lineup together, but I have them all conservatively hovering around 15%, with Mito on the higher end, and Riley on the lower end. Again, I thought this would be a decent time to buy back on Mito coming off a missed cut, but just like Sungjae, people aren’t going to budge on these guys. Brian Harman will absolutely garner ownership because of the course history, but he will not be mega-chalk like he was last year. I have him at around 13%. Denny McCarthy is a very popular bet this week, but I’m not sure how much that will translate into ownership. Even for those who were on him last week at the U.S. Open, the price increase is still jarring. I’m not sure he clears double digits. Marc Leishman might get to 12ish percent, but nothing really unmanageable there, and I do believe that Webb Simpson will be under-owned at this price point. Public sentiment is closer to the idea that Webb sucks and Mito, Riley, and Wise are superstars, so I guess under-owned is subjective, but that’s just my opinion. There’s definitely some nice leverage to be found with Keith Mitchell, Jason Day, and Jason Kokrak, who will all be single digits.

• 7K: Brendan Steele chalk week is a real thing, buckle up. I have him coming in close to 18%. I don’t know if he can clear 20%, and we might actually see a mass exodus on Wednesday evening if people come to their senses. After Steele, I’m not sure I see anyone emerging as a clear second guy. There will certainly be one or two more players that will clear double digits, but I don’t see any of these players clearing 15%. Here are the candidates: Brendon Todd, Maverick McNealy, Joel Dahmen, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, and Aaron Rai. One or two of those players will clear double digits. The rest of them will be in the high single digits. Gun to my head? I’d probably go with Todd and Dahmen as the two double digit guys. Kevin Streelman or Matthew NeSmith could be late party crashers, but I have both capped at 10%.

• 6K: I do not believe there will be any overwhelming chalk in this range. People definitely learned their lesson with the Gotterup debacle. My guess is that Adam Svensson will be the highest owned player here, but I would be pretty shocked if he gets to double digits. Yes, I have touted him, and I know a few others who are on board, but I don’t believe he is viewed as an egregious mis-price or a free square. Tyler Duncan and Adam Schenk will both garner a little buzz at their respective price points. It’s very easy to argue that both are under-priced. A few other names I’ve heard that will be on the higher end compared to players around them are Beau Hossler, John Huh, Lucas Glover, Austin Smotherman, and David Lipsky, but we are talking about the difference between them at 3-5% and others at 0-3% percent. Definitely no players to be truly concerned about down here.

Best of Luck this week – AL