By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Here’s the deal. If I was breaking up Thursday AM, Thursday PM, Friday AM, and Friday PM into four quadrants, I would probably ascertain that Thursday afternoon will have the most challenging conditions. A steady wind from 2:00 – 8:00 PM of 13 mph, with gusts up to 22 mph will certainly be a struggle. The second most challenging window would likely be able Friday morning to Friday midday. Friday AM players will see a steady wind speed of 13 mph for their entire round. The Friday PM players might encounter some trouble starting their round, as Friday at 2:00 PM might be the worst time to be on the golf course, but with a touch of rain in the forecast for Friday afternoon, and the wind dying down at 5:00 PM, the Friday afternoon wave might be able to fire some darts. “Might” is the key word here. If the rain picks up, Friday afternoon could also be dreadful. What I can say definitely is that the best time to be on the golf will be early Thursday morning. I really do believe that early AM players on Thursday will be able to post a low number. Ultimately, I definitely see an edge for the AM/PM wave, but I don’t believe it will be as significant as what we saw at the PGA Championship or Players. I will be using it as a tie-breaker. 13 out of my 20 players will be in the AM/PM wave, but I’m not willing to get off some of my favorite plays on the other side of the draw. 0.5 – 0.75 of a stroke advantage for the AM/PM wave feels about right. It could be an edge, but I wouldn’t completely go back to the drawing board because of it.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 11.4%): I get it, Patrick Cantlay sucks. He folds when the lights shine the brightest, as evidenced by his performances this year at the Players, Masters, and PGA Championship. At all three tournaments, he was a popular selection, and he produced nothing better than a 39th, with two missed cuts. I understand if you have Cantlay fatigue, but to me, this is the perfect time to hop on. For all the flack he gets about major performance, he’s never missed a cut in a U.S. Open, with three Top-25s, including a 15th last year at Torrey and a 21st in 2019 at Pebble Beach. He was also in the mix at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage, another course with narrow fairways and tiny Poa greens surrounded by complex bunkering and thick rough. I simply believe that Patrick Cantlay is too good of a player to continue this major drought forever. He’s coming off a third place finish at the Memorial where he gained over a stroke in all four major categories. He’s two strokes away from having three wins this season, and yet he is a complete afterthought this week. Cantlay is going out early on Thursday morning in a group with Billy Horschel and Daniel Berger that shouldn’t draw much attention. I really like this spot for him, and I expect him to contend.

• Joaquin Niemann ($8,900) (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 14.5%): Joaquin Niemann is my official pick to win this tournament, and I feel uncomfortably confident about it. I really hope that as I continue to declare my love for the young Chilean, his ownership doesn’t creep up. I’ve seen that movie before, and as I write this early on Wednesday morning, I acknowledge that he is a strong candidate to catch some late steam. Niemann has all of the tools I am looking for this week. He’s an elite driver of the ball, a great long iron player, and has a short game I can trust. The recent form is immaculate as well. Niemann is coming off a third place finish at the Memorial where he gained a whopping 11 strokes ball-striking. He’s now gained over three strokes off the tee in three consecutive starts. There are countless trends to consider this week, but the one stood out to me was the importance of entering a U.S. Open in good form off the tee. Niemann passes that test with flying colors. Any player who can go wire to wire at Riviera in front of Tiger has the mettle to win a major. As my good friend Geoff Fienberg likes to say, “Hello, World,” Joaquin Niemann.

• Daniel Berger ($8,400) (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 10.4%): Daniel Berger was in my core four at the PGA Championship, and we all know how that ended. Most DFS players would still be bitter and swear off Berger for the foreseeable future, but I’ve learned to have short term memory loss. Each tournament is it’s own mutually exclusive event, a brand new opportunity, and blacklisting players who have hurt your feelings in the past is not a winning strategy. For all intents and purposes, I think Daniel Berger is a great play this week. I don’t have the confidence in him to actually win the tournament that I do in Patrick Cantlay or Joaquin Niemann, but I feel pretty comfortable that DB Straight Vibin’ will finish Top-20. The four-time PGA Tour winner has a sneaky solid U.S. Open record, and a seventh last year at Torrey leads me to believe he can find even more success on a shorter USGA set-up. Berger is coming off a quiet fifth at the Memorial (we played him at low ownership there as well), where he gained over five strokes on approach. Despite the strong recent form, he’s just getting completely squeezed out by the popularity of the players surrounding him. You know I’ll be there.

• Si Woo Kim ($7,000) (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.3%): I love playing Si Woo at big events because he’s one of the long-shots that I could actually see winning the tournament. Do I think that Si Woo will win the U.S. Open? I don’t, but I do believe that he possesses the most upside out of anyone in this range. He’s had an up and down history in majors, and he’s never really contended, but a 13th at Erin Hills and a 40th at Torrey Pines last year leave me optimistic that he can handle a USGA set up. Si Woo still maintains a strange reputation as a highly volatile player, but he has actually turned into one of the most consistent cut-makers on the PGA Tour. In 14 starts this year, he’s only missed one cut, and yet, he’s still failed to record a top-10. The former PLAYERS winner showed some serious signs of life at the Memorial, gaining strokes in all four major categories. It’s only a matter of time before he really pops, and a rise to the first page of the leaderboard at Brookline wouldn’t leave me the least bit surprised.

Chalk Report:

• 10K: Here’s the deal in this range. I’ve heard takes that Rory will be over 25%, but I’m just not sure I see that. There are too many exceptional options in his price range, coupled with the fact that many are taking a balanced approach and starting in the 9K range anyway. 22% for Rory feels about right. The next group of Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm feels pretty flat to me. My guess is that all three players come in between 13 and 18%. If you think you are sneaky playing Jon Rahm, you aren’t. The forgotten elites are the players I’ll get to next: Cameron Smith and Collin Morikawa. I believe both will be in the single digits. Two elite players in the $10K range at single digits is something that we rarely see, but the prevailing narrative this week seems to have centered around total driving, and of all the elite players, Cam Smith is objectively the worst at that skill-set and it’s not particularly close. The Morikawa ownership is a bit surprising to me too, but it just shows how well you have to play week in and week out. Morikawa has now had multiple disappointing starts in a row, and Rory, JT, and Scheffler have been awesome. Rahm has the ideal skill-set for a USGA set-up and is the defending champion. Even though he hasn’t had his best stuff this year, he will always garner ownership at this specific tournament. There is real leverage to be had beginning with Smith, Morikawa, or plugging them in together.

• 9K: The $9K range is loaded with so many good players, and I would imagine that many skip the $10K range entirely with such plentiful options here. Xander Schauffele will absolutely lead the charge. He’s an absolute lock to clear 18%, but I don’t see him crossing 22% or being higher owned than Rory. After Xander, I would group Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris, and Jordan Spieth together. This group feels pretty flat to me, and my guess is that all three players fall somewhere between 14% and 18%. Here’s where it gets a little more interesting. I have Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay both hovering around 10%. I would be surprised if either of them cleared 12%. Viktor Hovland will be even lower. I’m not sure I see a scenario where Hovland gets to double digits, which is honestly hard to fathom. Similar to Morikawa, it’s a “what have you done for me lately” game, and Hovland simply hasn’t been hitting the ball well enough to garner significant ownership. The fact that of all the elite players, Hovland has the most glaring flaw (short game) doesn’t help either. Who knows, maybe the thick rough around Brookline neutralizes short game. Hovland did win the US Amateur at Pebble Beach and take low amateur honors there as well at the 2019 U.S. Open, another course with microscopic putting surfaces surrounded by thick rough. I don’t think he is a terrible option. Dustin Johnson will be sub five percent, which is an absolute bonkers sentence to type at a U.S. Open. Outside of Koepka, DJ has probably been the best U.S. Open player since Tiger. I completely understand the LIV stuff, but we’re still talking about one of the 30 greatest players of all time, who also finished Top-12 at both the Masters and Players this year. 3% feels a little irresponsible.

• 8K: The 8K range is similarly loaded with appealing options. Matt Fitzpatrick will lead the charge, but similar to Xander, I don’t see him passing Rory. 18% on Fitzpatrick feels just right. Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Max Homa, and Joaquin Niemann won’t be too far behind. My guess is that all four of those players fall between 13 and 18%. Yes, this range is going to garner a lot of ownership. If you are playing Scheffler, Thomas, Rahm, or Rory at the top, it’s easy to skip the 9s and jam in a Fitzpatrick and a Finau as your second and third man in. Rory – Fitzpatrick – Finau still leaves $7,600 each for the final three spots. Even starting in the 9K range, you could hypothetically go Xander, and then jam in three in here. Xander – Fitzpatrick – Finau – Homa leaves you with $7,800 for two more players! With all of this being said, there is still leverage to be had with Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, and Brooks Koepka. All three of those players will be sub 8%. Hatton and Brooks will be sub 5%. Daniel Berger and Cameron Young are the two hardest players for me to figure out. I initially thought that Cameron Young would be quite popular, but it appears folks are cooling on him in favor of Niemann. Berger is the opposite, I thought he would be as low-owned as Horschel, but he appears to be catching just a bit of steam. I think both end up settling somewhere between 9 and 14%.

• 7K: There is one clear problem in this range, and that is Sungjae Im. Sungjae is a pretty safe bet to fall somewhere between 18% and 22%. It makes all the sense in the world. I believe he is the most mis-priced player on the entire board. The only question I would ask is, do we believe that Sungjae is five times more likely to outperform Ancer, Power, Gooch, or Louis? All four of those players are the same price, or $100 cheaper than Sungjae, and none of them will clear 7%. After Sungjae, Corey Conners, Mito Pereira, Keegan Bradley, and Davis Riley lead the charge. All four of those players will fall somewhere between 12 and 18%. Riley is probably the most concerning given the price and players around him. I can’t argue that Riley has been playing great golf and is under-priced, but he will likely be six times the ownership of the two players who surround him, Sergio Garcia and Tom Hoge. Is Davis Riley six times more likely to outperform Sergio and Tom Hoge? That remains to be seen, but I think you probably know my answer. I thought there was a chance that Mito would creep up to Fitzpatrick, Xander, and Sungjae territory, but I do not see that happening. 14-16% feels about right for the young Chilean. I thought there was a chance that Conners would go under the radar given his poor U.S. Open track record and massive disappointment at Southern Hills, but a lights out Sunday in Canada ended all chances of that. I’ve seen him catching some late steam, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up just as highly owned as Mito. Keegan is definitely going to see a bump here just off the fact that he is from New England, but don’t expect anything crazy. 13% on Keegan feels about right. I currently have Tommy Fleetwood, Aaron Wise, Justin Rose, and maybe Brian Harman all hovering between 8 and 13%. Fleetwood will definitely clear double digits, I’m not sure about the other three. Harold Varner III is the only other player I would mention with real potential to clear double digits. I wouldn’t be stunned if Russell Henley or Si Woo got there in some contests, but I doubt it.

• 6K: As I always say, choose your own adventure down. Most DFS players are petrified of this range on a normal week. I think that gets magnified in a U.S. Open because this is hands down the number one tournament on the schedule that does the best job of separating the good players from the bad. I’m not sure anyone below $6K clears 5%. Hopefully, people learned their lesson last week with a 20% Chris Gotterup. If I had to make a guess, Francesco Molinari will be the highest owned player below $7K, and I have him at about 5.5%. I’ve heard a tiny bit of Victor Perez, Adri Arnaus, Beau Hossler, Taylor Montgomery and Mackenzie Hughes buzz, but I would be genuinely shocked if any of them cleared 4%.

Best of luck this week – AL