By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

Okay, there’s a lot to dissect here, and I would like to preface it all with the fact that this is all speculative. I could be wrong. In fact, I was wrong at the Players. This is not financial advise. I play extremely aggressively in pursuit of finding small edges, and if I am incorrect, I am completely comfortable losing it all that week. Here’s how I could see the weather playing out, but at the end of the day, it’s the weather, so do with this information what you will.

There is no rain in the forecast for Thursday. In the early morning, there are some pretty significant wind gusts (up to 20 mph at 8:00 AM), but by 2:00 PM, everything seems to calm down. The afternoon should be absolutely perfect, without a breathe of wind (max gusts of 3mph). This is already an advantage for the AM/PM wave.

Friday is where it gets dicey. Beginning at 5:00 AM, the rain begins, and it does not stop until 8:00 PM on Saturday night! Now, it’s light rain, with little threat of thunderstorms. Scenario one is that there will be no delays, and the PM/AM players will see rainy conditions with wind gusts up to 17 mph on Friday. The AM/PM players will also see rainy conditions in the afternoon, but with wind gusts up to 22 mph. That’s not a huge difference, but again, another slight edge to the PM/AM wave.

Scenario two is that we do get delays. In my opinion this would be even better for the PM/AM players. At the very least, they will get some holes in on Friday. They may even be able to finish their round. However, if the AM/PM players have to spill into Saturday, then they will be tasked with rainy conditions and up to 32 mph gusts on Saturday morning in sub 50 degree weather. No thanks.

A doomsday scenario is always in play. All of Friday could be called off, and all of Saturday could be called off too. I would be surprised if that was the case, as the difference between this week and the Players is the threat of thunderstorms. We can play through rain, but Friday afternoon will undoubtedly be unpleasant, and Saturday morning will be even worse. I want my players to get off the course as soon as possible on Friday morning.

The biggest caveat with stacking this week is that all of the good players are in the AM/PM wave. Gary Woodland, Patrick Reed, and Russell Henley are the only three players above 9K in the PM/AM wave, and I will be playing two of them. With that being said, I will not be doing a full stack. There are a few players in the AM/PM wave that I feel too strongly about to abort. 14 of my 20 players will be in the PM/AM wave, and I will have a few lineups where I stack fully or almost fully in the other direction. The players in the AM/PM wave that I am rocking with are Abraham Ancer, Matt Fitzpatrick, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan, and Lee Hodges. My numbers are just too strong with them, and my exposure to Glover, Pan, and Hodges, will be slightly lower than other players in their price range.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight to relative to the field

• Matt Fitzpatrick, $10,000 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 14.4%): Well, I guess I have to keep riding with Fitzpatrick. Conners’ ownership is untenable, to say the least. I just think there’s a lot of groupthink going on there. Fitzpatrick is a much better player. He’s got seven wins on the DP World Tour before his 28th birthday, and guess what? Almost all of them came on short, tree-lined, tight, and difficult, Bent-grass courses. He’s turned into an elite driver of the ball, and we are getting a nice ownership discount coming off a missed cut as chalk at the Heritage. Outside of the draw, he checks every single box I am looking for, but I still trust him in the wind and the rain more than I trust Conners, Finau, and maybe even Rory. He will also be the lowest owned of that bunch. Fitzpatrick is my biggest bet of the week, and I expect him to capture his first PGA Tour victory in Potomac.

• Si Woo Kim, $8,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13.2%): Despite carrying the reputation of a volatile player, Si Woo Kim has turned into one of the most reliable options on Tour. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Shriners, and he’s finished in the Top-45 in seven of his last nine tournaments. Si Woo has an exceptional track record on shorter courses, and he remains one of the more underrated drivers of the ball in this field. I like his draw, and his ownership is manageable. Easy game.

• Kevin Streelman, $7,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.9%): I love this play. Streelman checks the box of a player that gains off the tee despite below average distance. He’s one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field. He’s won the Travelers before, and he’s coming off a +5.1 ball-striking performance in Mexico. Add in the reasonable ownership, and the fact that he is on the right side of the draw, and Streelman will be a part of my main build this week.

• Cameron Davis, $7,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 5.6%): I’ll be honest. I thought Cam Davis was going to be chalk this week. He’s coming off a third-place finish at the RBC Heritage (short, positional golf course that emphasizes keeping the ball in play off the tee and middle iron play) where he gained strokes in all four major categories. He’s one of the best drivers of the ball in this field, and he actually improves his off the tee baseline on shorter courses. He’s 14th in that key proximity bucket of 175-200 yards. He’s shown us his winning upside, and Bent-grass is far and away his best surface. Oh, and he’s on the “right” side of the draw and will be sub 6%. People are silly.

Chalk Report: 

• 10K: Rory McIlroy and Corey Conners both have the potential to clear 25% in this range. This certainly makes sense to me, as we just watched Jon Rahm win the tournament at upwards of 35%. Rory is the best player in this field, and Corey Conners is “perfect” for this course. Neither of them are for me. My guess is that Finau, Fitzpatrick, and Ancer fall somewhere between 18 and 12%, with Finau and Fitzpatrick being on the higher end, and Ancer being on the lower end. None of these players are on the “right” side of the draw, but all fit this course very well. It’s a strong range, but the Conners stuff has gotten a bit out of control (in my opinion).

• 9K: Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, and even Gary Woodland will be close to 20%. My guess is that all three of them fall somewhere between 16 and 23%. I tweeted on Tuesday evening that my projections had Bradley at 22%, poking fun at the idea of a chalk Keegan at that price. My presumption is that people will come to their senses, and he will settle around 18%. Henley feels like a very safe bet to hang between 18 and 20 as well. He’s extremely safe, fits this course well, and is on the right side of the draw (not that I believe many people will be paying attention to that this week). My initial thought was that Woodland would go under-owned due to the fact that everyone was on him last week, and he was… just okay. He felt like a prime candidate for being yesterday’s news, but it appears that people are sticking around. 16 to 19% would be my guess on club down Gary. I really don’t love the idea of Henley or Woodland at that ownership, but they are both on the “right” side of the draw. Patrick Reed is the only other player above 9K on the “right” side of the draw, and he will be around 5%, but I just can’t do it. He was able to get away with murder last week off the tee, and he still couldn’t crack the Top-40 in Korn Ferry Tour field. What’s worse is that the wheels came off at the end. I like to pounce on players that improve over the course of the tournament, and Reed did the opposite. Hatton and Leishman are interesting. Both are on the “wrong” side of the draw, but Hatton will be between 8 and 12%, and Leishman might be even lower.

• 8K: Max Homa and Cameron Young will likely clear 15%, but I do not see either of them reaching 20%. People love Homa, and they will see that he’s a former Wells Fargo champion, albeit on a different golf course. Cam Young is all the rage in betting and DFS twitter this week, but I still believe there is a group of DFS players who may not know who he is. I could see him clear 20% in a few listener leagues, but 16% feels like a fair number in larger contests. Outside of that, my guess is that Si Woo and Seamus Power fall between 10 and 15%. Si Woo will clear 15% in Mayo, but I don’t see him getting there in larger contests. He has gotten a ton of steam in Vegas, but I don’t know how that will translate to DraftKings. He’s a sneaky candidate to be very highly owned in high stakes contests. He’s a sharp play this week, and the sharper players are generally the ones playing higher stakes! Sergio Garcia and Webb Simpson will both fall somewhere between 8 and 12%. Both Sergio and Webb are squeamish. Despite the questionable motivation with LIV in his future, I’m playing Sergio. He’s on the “right” side of the draw, fits this course beautifully, and is still being overlooked. I was planning on playing Paul Casey, but he withdrew from the Pro-Am, and I just can’t stomach it. My guess is that he falls below 5%. Jason Day will be 2%, and he should be 0%.

• 7K: This is a massive range, but I think the only chalk you really need to worry about is Keith Mitchell, Brian Harman, Sepp Straka, Joel Dahmen, and Martin Laird. There is a real possibility that Straka nears 20%. He is severely under-priced. To be honest, I don’t really understand why he is cheaper than Keegan. Keith Mitchell will be the next highest owned player in this range at 16%. I would pass if he was on the “wrong” side of the draw, but he’s not, and I already bet him, so I guess I’m eating it. Dahmen and Laird on the other hand, I just can’t do. I’m on the record about Martin Laird. I love Martin Laird. I’ve had beachfront property on Laird island for years. Unfortunately, a new housing development is currently being built on my beautiful, quiet beach. 11-15% on a 7.1K golfer is a lot, and we are now starting to get into territory where we are assuming that Laird is three times more likely to outperform a Lucas Glover or a Cameron Davis, which he’s not. If he was on the “right” side of the draw, I would probably eat it, but he’s not. I’m comfortable limiting my Laird exposure to the betting markets this week. Dahmen is a friend of this column as well, but I have him at 14%, and I would just rather play CT Pan or Lanto Griffin at a fraction of the ownership. I will say that Dahmen and Harman are manageable. I don’t see either of them clearing 17%. I bet Harman to win, and he was a tough cut, but he’s on the “wrong” side of the draw, so I’m taking a stand. The only other players that I could see clearing double digits are Matthew NeSmith and maybe Kevin Streelman. Doug Ghim is on the “wrong” side of the draw, but I think he is an extremely sharp play this week. Ghim was a decorated amateur and collegiate player that I believe is ready to win. He gained 9.2 ball-striking last week, the best mark of his career. We call that percolating, and this is an excellent golf course for his skill-set. If he was on the “right” side of the draw, he would be a core play. All players who were not mentioned will be single digits.

• 6K: The only player with a real shot down here to crack double digits is Ryan Armour, which would still surprise me. He will be the highest owned player in this range, but I have him at 8%. He makes all the sense in the world, and I bet him Top-40, but he’s on the wrong side of the draw, so I cut him. I love Tyler Duncan, and he may be the second most popular player in this range, but I still have him capped at about 7%. Nothing to worry about there. I subbed in Austin Smotherman for Armour. Smotherman was double digits at 7.8K last week. He had one bad round and remained a stellar ball-striker. If you liked him last week, I don’t see why you would hop off. This is a better golf course for him. Lee Hodges is on the wrong side of the draw, but I wouldn’t be able to live with myself if I didn’t have him in one or two lineups. Something popped with him big time in my numbers, and I have to see it through. Anyway, outside of Duncan, Armour, and maybe Svensson, I would be surprised if any other played cleared 5%.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price): 

1. Abraham Ancer, $10,400 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 12.1%)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick, $10,000 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 14.4%)
3. Russell Henley, $9,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 20.5%)
4. Gary Woodland, $9,100 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 17.9%)
5. Sergio Garcia, $8,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.9%)
6. Si Woo Kim, $8,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13.2%)
7. Cameron Young, $8,000 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 16.0%)
8. Keith Mitchell, $7,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 15.7%)
9. Doug Ghim, $7,800 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 8.1%)
10. Kevin Streelman, $7,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.9%)
11. Matthew NeSmith, $7,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.6%)
12. C.T. Pan, $7,500 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 8.9%)
13. Alex Smalley, $7,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 5.9%)
14. Russell Knox, $7,300 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 7.5%)
15. Lucas Glover, $7,200 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 5.3%)
16. Cameron Davis, $7,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 5.6%)
17. Luke List, $7,100 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 6.8%)
18. Tyler Duncan, $6,900 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 5.5%)
19. Lee Hodges, $6,800 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 1.6%)
20. Austin Smotherman, $6,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 4%)

Best of luck this week! – AL