By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of the Country Club on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already this year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

For the first time in what feels like forever, I don’t see anything here. Weather will not be a part of my decision making process this week.

Core 4: My four strongest players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Corey Conners, $9,600 (Projected ownership: 15.6%): I love Russell Henley just as much as the next guy, but my numbers suggest that Corey Conners is just as likely to play well, so I’ll gladly take the price and ownership discount here. While Conners has yet to really pop at Sedgefield, high end finishes at TPC Sawgrass, Waialae, and Sea Island leave me feeling optimistic about his ability to perform on short, positional, Bermuda courses. It’s not like he’s playing poorly either. A 28th at St. Andrew’s, which is a terrible course for him, displays a player in more than suitable form, and the Canadian remains one of the most accurate drivers and better short iron players in this entire field.

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $8,400 (Projected ownership: 10.7%): There is some really irresponsible decision making going on in the $8K range. Si Woo Kim, Joohyung Kim, Brian Harman, and J.T. Poston could all clear 15%, and one or two of them might clear 20%. That’s objectively silly, and I’ll gladly take the discount on Bezuidenhout, who remains of the best short iron players and Bermuda putters in this entire field. The irons were firing in his last start at the Open, and an impressive resume on shorter, positional courses leave my optimistic about his ability to contend here. The biggest defense of Sedgefield is the nuanced green complexes, and Bezuidenhout gained 5.6 strokes putting on debut. At an extremely elementary level, the roadmap to success at Sedgefield is drive the ball in the fairway, consistently be able to hit a wedge to within 15 feet, and make 15 footers at a higher rate than field average. My confidence level in Bez being able to accomplish this goal is higher than nearly every other player in this range.

• Adam Long, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 13.2%): Adam Long is my pick to win this tournament, and my hope is that my enthusiasm doesn’t lead to a late spike in ownership. I very rarely play $7K players above 10%, but I’m fading eight out of the ten highest owned players, so I have room to eat a bit of ownership with Long here. The former Duke standout is coming off a 16th at the 3M Open where he gained 0.3 strokes off the tee, and 6.6 strokes on approach. This was actually his second best approach week of his entire career. Long has now gained strokes off the tee in five straight starts, and over 2.5 strokes on approach in back to back starts. He’s shown an ability to get crazy hot with the flat-stick as well, gaining 9.1 strokes putting just a few weeks ago at the Travelers. Long won the American Express at 26 under par, so I have little doubt about his ability to keep up in easier scoring conditions. He’s also one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, which explains multiple top-three finishes at El Camaleon, one of the most narrow courses on Tour. High-end finishes at Colonial and Heritage pad his short, positional resume, and the Washington Duke Inn golf course, where Long honed his skills collegiately, bears a striking resemble to Sedgefield, both agronomically and strategically. One, if not multiple, former Duke players will contend this week, and Long is the strongest of that bunch.

• John Huh, $6,800 (Projected ownership: 2.5%): The sub 7.5K range is weak, and it’s hard to feel confident about any player down here. I like Tyler Duncan too, but I need to monitor that ownership as the day progresses. I’ll ride with John Huh instead, who remains one of the more accurate drivers and short iron players in this entire field. What I like about Huh is that he consistently gives himself birdie opportunities, which is an absolute must on this course. He’s won before at El Camaleon, and multiple high end finishes at Harbor Town, Colonial, and Sea Island leave me feeling confident he has the tools to tame Sedgefield as well. I was encouraged by how the ball-striking improved for Huh on Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage as well. I’m confident he can carry over that momentum into a strong finish this week in Greensboro.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: I never thought I would ever say this, but Webb Simpson is the clear leverage play at the Wyndham Championship. There have been years where the Duke of Greensboro has been up to 40% in this tournament, but an injury plagued season that has led to zero top-10s in 13 starts has fantasy players confused about what to do here. It’s the ultimate course history versus recent form battle, and the recent form truthers seem to winning out on Wednesday morning. With that being said, if Webb Simpson continues to get discussed as the “leverage” play, a few will almost certainly come around at the eleventh hour. Still, I have him hard capped at 14%. As the highest priced golfer on a course that does not do the best job of accentuating his best skill-set, Will Zalatoris will be in that range as well. Webb and Zalatoris are the clear pivots, as they will both be sub-14%. Everyone else in this range will be above 18%. As far as the rest of the range goes, I’ve got Billy Horschel at 18%, Shane Lowry at 19%, and Sungjae Im at 24%. Sungjae will be the highest owned player on the entire slate, but I do not foresee a Patrick Cantlay situation on the horizon, where he comes in even far higher than expected. I could see him creeping up to 26 or 27%, but I would be shocked if he cleared 30%.

• $9K: There are some nice leverage opportunities in the 9K range as well. Russell Henley will be the highest owned player in this range, and for good reason. I would imagine that he’s close to the top of nearly everyone’s model, and he’s probably a more comfortable click than anyone else on the entire board, including Webb. I have him in the 19-23% range. Next up in this range is Corey Conners, who I have hovering between 14-17%. Fantasy players will get a nice little break switching off Henley to Conners, but I would not call the Canadian a clear leverage play. That title is reserved for Tyrrell Hatton, who will almost certainly be sub-8%. Adam Scott and Harold Varner III will both hover in that 10-15% range, although my one pick for the player that will come in higher than his projections would be Varner. I’m a little surprised that Varner is that much lower than the two players below him, Denny McCarthy and Si Woo Kim, and I’m not convinced that holds.

• $8K: Si Woo Kim was a core play last week at $7,900 and 11% ownership, rewarding readers with a top-15 finish. You’re in looney tunes land if you think we’ll be going back to him at $8,900 and 20% ownership. I get the course history, but he’s a fish play at 20% and that price, in my opinion. The Denny and Tom Kim love feels a bit irresponsible as well. Denny should get to 15%, and Tom Kim will split the difference and come in around 17 or 18%. These players are all easy passes in my opinion. The high to middle $8K range is going to get a lot of love this week as potential second or third men in. Brian Harman at $8.4K is also garnering ownership. He may also clear 15%. I would be weary of that one as well, the only reason why he finished sixth at the Open is because he gained 8.7 strokes putting. He was a field average ball-striker. JT Poston might even end up higher than Harman too. He’s also one of the easiest fades on the board to me. The player that I’m surprised isn’t getting more love is Kevin Kisner, but it just seems like he’s in a squeeze spot between the Kim’s. I hate Kevin Kisner, but he’s undoubtedly a far better play than both Kim’s. Kisner, Taylor Pendrith, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Wise, Justin Rose, and Davis Riley will all provide nice ownership breaks. I have all six of them between 8 and 13%.

• $7K: Let’s start with the players who have the potential to clear 15%: Mark Hubbard, Scott Stallings, and Adam Svensson. Flop lag might just be a thing of the past if people are still flocking to Hubbard at $7,900 coming off a missed cut. That one makes very little sense to me. I understand why people are playing Stallings, he’s been unbelievable, and I was extremely high on him last week as well, but this is a bad course fit and an obvious regression spot, in my opinion. Svensson has built up a nice little fantasy bandwagon. He was one of the highest owned players in his range last week coming off a missed cut, so one can imagine how people feel about him coming off a top-25. I like him far more as an outright bet then a DraftKings play. Once we get past those three, Adam Long should be in the 13% range. I’ve been pumping him up all week, and he is my official pick to win the tournament, so hopefully his ownership doesn’t get out of control. 13% is tenable, but I’m willing to pass if I see some crazy late movement this evening. After Long, the only three players with the potential to clear 10% are Sebastian Munoz, Alex Smalley, and Tyler Duncan, and I’m not sure that any of them get there.

• $6K: I’m not seeing much down here. Another week of soft-ish pricing has this range pretty dead once again. Here are a few names that could garner more ownership than their peers: Hayden Buckley and Rory Sabbatini. That’s really all I’ve got.

Best of luck this week – AL