By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’ll start off by prefacing that I am far from an expert on Japanese weather patterns. I’m using a wind finder tower 45 minutes away from the course, which was the closest I was able to find, and we still do not have access to a super forecast breaking down the wind hourly. This is the “rainy season” in Japan, and Narashino has already seen a fair amount of rain this month. Looking at the forecast for Thursday, I’m not even sure they will be able to play. Almost a quarter inch of rain from 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM usually spells a washout. Factoring in the potential for rain delays into an argument for a wave advantage is already a fool’s errand, and this is a limited field event with successive tee times throughout the day. I’m not going to play or fade anyone based on their tee time, but I would be conscientious of how an extremely soggy course can factor into our decision making around players. The wetter a golf course, the longer and wider it plays. There will be less rollout in the fairways, making it easier to hit the short grass, but in turn, the course will also play longer. I’m shifting some weight in my model towards carry distance and long iron play, and I am less inclined to knock a player for inaccuracy off the tee than I had initially laid out in my Monday article.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Collin Morikawa, $10,200 (Projected ownership: 18.4%): I strongly considered Hideki Matsuyama for this spot, as I believe that he is under-owned for what he should be at this event, but my gut is telling me Morikawa. The two-time major champion is coming off an extremely disappointing season by his standards, and it’s almost been a full calendar year since his last worldwide win. He’s had his opportunities, and we are still talking about a player that finished top-five at the Masters and U.S. Open last year, yet it feels like forever since Morikawa has been truly in the mix late on a Sunday afternoon. I believe that changes this week at Narashino. Morikawa remains, pound for pound, the best iron player in the world, and in soggy conditions, this tournament could turn into a dart throwing contest. I believe he was severely under-utilized at the President’s Cup, and that he looked excellent in all three of his matches at Quail Hollow. He’s been solid at this course with a 22nd and seventh, and he contended at the Olympics in Japan as well. Morikawa is traveling to a Japanese course with receptive greens and is the lowest owned player in his range. Don’t overthink it.

• Viktor Hovland, $9,500 (Projected ownership: 16.7%): Remember Viktor Hovland, the guy who played in the final group at the Open and still boasts six career world-wide wins, all of them coming outside of the mainland U.S? I understand that Tom Kim is the flavor of the week, but Hovland is a far superior player, and I’m willing to die on that hill. The six-time worldwide winner has a cool 30 yards on Kim off the tee, and he remains the best long iron player in this entire field. I’ve had the pleasure of playing Karsten Creek, the Oklahoma State course where Hovland cut his teeth, and it reminds me greatly of Narashino. Both are Zoysia courses with Bent-grass greens and a large plurality of long par fours. The sole concern with Hovland is the short game, and I do believe that does short game matters on this course. Yet if he can succeed on courses such as Bay Hill, Riviera and Torrey Pines, which all feature a lower greens in regulation percentage than Narashino, he can succeed here. Hovland has quietly been playing some solid golf overseas, with a fifth at the BMW PGA where he gained over seven strokes on approach. This is the exact time of year when he started heating up last year, and I’m expecting a massive season out of the young Norwegian.

• Sebastian Munoz, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 10.4%): Sebastian Munoz is probably my favorite play on the entire board at this ownership. Everyone wants to talk about Tom Kim, but Munoz taking down Scottie Scheffler in Sunday singles was far more impressive to me. I loved everything I saw from the Colombian at the Presidents Cup, and I expect him to carry that momentum into Tokyo. There are four major boxes that I am looking for my players to check at Narashino: Total driving, long iron play, bunker play, and Bent-grass putting. Munoz is one of the only players in this entire field that ranks comfortably above average in all four of those skill-sets. Mid-scoring, tree-lined, Bent-grass courses are exactly where I want Sebastian Munoz, and a third at Colonial, a 14th at Chapultapec, and a fourth at this tournament last year, leave me feeling extremely encouraged about the 29-year-old’s chances.

• Adam Schenk, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 6.0%): I love this spot for Adam Schenk, who will be making his third start at Narashino. Schenk has been just fine at this course, with a 22nd and 28th in two appearances, but considering the jet lag and the culture shock, I love players who have already proven they can come overseas and deliver. He’s making the return trip for a reason, and I believe this is a really solid golf course for his game. Schenk is one of the more accurate drivers and Bent-grass putters in this field, and his recent iron play leaves me feeling extremely encouraged. Schenk is coming off a 12th place finish at the Shriners where he gained 1.7 strokes off the tee, and 5.6 strokes on approach. Yes, TPC Summerlin was always going to be a good spot for him, but Schenk has flashed the approach upside that we saw from Hoge right before he leveled up. Schenk gained 7.4 on approach at the Memorial, 6.5 at the 3M, 5 at the St. Jude’s, and another 5.6 at the Shriners last week. If this does in fact turn into a dart throwing contest, you’d be hard pressed to find a stronger combination below $7K of iron play and Bent-grass putting than Adam Schenk.

Chalk Report: 

• $10K: I was a little surprised at how ownership shook out in the $10K range. My guess was that Hideki Matsuyama would be the highest owned player on the slate given his course history (first and second in two appearances), his connection to Japan, and the fact that he is cheaper than Xander Schauffele. I have Hideki coming in at a somewhat palatable 22%. I would argue that’s too low for him. The Xander number surprised me. The former Olympic Gold medalist should comfortably clear 30% as the highest priced player. This might be a reaction to Patrick Cantlay smashing as the highest owned and highest priced player. The case for Xander is bulletproof this week, but I do not believe that he should be over ten percentage points higher than Hideki. Sungjae Im has built up quite the bandwagon at this point, and he will not be far behind Xander at 28.5%. Sungjae continues to deliver as chalk, but I remain surprised that he’s also receiving more love than Hideki. Collin Morikawa will be the lowest owned player in this range, but not by much. You aren’t being sneaky by playing Morikawa. Yes, at 18.5%, he is considerably lower than Xander, Sungjae, and even Hideki, but Collin is still the most tipped player in the betting markets. I would likely be on Morikawa this week regardless of the ownership. As already alluded to, I just think it’s a really good spot for him, but do not be surprised if he catches some late steam.

• $9K: Looking at ownership numbers, my guess is that skipping the $10K range entirely will be a very unique build. In my opinion, the highest owned player in the $9K range will still be lower owned than Morikawa, which speaks to the fact that many are even jamming in two studs up top. Usually players coming off a win see their ownership decrease, but Tom Kim is a cult, and I still believe that he will hover around 20% this week and be the highest owned player in the range. Cameron Young does not appear to be a popular bet, but he’s still garnering a fair amount of ownership. I have him hovering right around 18.5%. Next up is Viktor Hovland, who I have in the 15-18% range. The leverage at the bottom of this range is beautiful too. This is an all-time no brainer buy spot on Corey Conners coming off a Presidents Cup where his reputation took a serious hit. The Canadian will be higher than Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, but I would be surprised if he cleared 12%. Fleetwood and Hatton will almost certainly be in the single digits, as the low $9K is simply a dead zone. Two players up top, and then down to Mito. That’s the build this week. I prefer Conners to both Englishmen, but all are solid ownership plays.

• $8K: A pretty hefty range for a limited field tournament, as 10/78 (12.8%) of players are priced in this eights. Mito Pereira will be the overwhelming chalk in this range, and I feel comfortable suggesting that he will clear 20%. Coming off a week where he gained over nine strokes on approach, I certainly understand the love. I’m actually a bit surprised that Tom Hoge isn’t higher. He’s playing some downright unbelievable golf, and we were all over him last week. 15% is certainly palatable given his recent form, but this sure does feel like a natural letdown spot. The rest of this range is somewhat flat and a bit difficult to figure out. I actually have the other eight players all falling between seven and 15%, with Cameron Davis, Keegan Bradley, and Si Woo Kim on the higher end, and Christian Bezuidenhout, Davis Riley, Scott Stallings, and Scott Stallings on the lower end. In this group of eight, at least four will be half the ownership of Mito. Just saying.

• $7K: This is where the limited field aspect really starts to be felt, as the six and seven thousand dollar range feature about half the players as they would in a normal tournament. Still, there is no disgusting chalk. At the top of the range, Sepp Straka, Matthew NeSmith, and Emiliano Grillo will all clear double digits, but none are unplayable. As we get lower, I’ve seen some love for Kurt Kitayama, Mackenzie Hughes, and Matt Wallace. Still, no player has emerged as a clear chalk option, and I would be surprised if any player in this range cleared 14%. This isn’t a picks column, but I will gladly share that Aaron Rai was the toughest cut from my core four this week, and I will be all over him.

• $6K: At $6,800, Hayden Buckley has a strong chance to clear double digits, which feels a bit irresponsible to me. There’s some Lee Hodges buzz as well, but he feels more in the 8% range. After that, no one is jumping off the page to me. The Asian Tour players at the bottom of this range are getting absolutely zero ownership, and it may be worth taking a flier on at least one of them. We just saw a recent top-ranked Amateur take down a LIV event. While this is a stronger field, Keita Nakajima, the number one ranked Amateur in the World, might be worth a look. I have him coming in around 1%, and the upside is there. I played him at the Old Course to no avail, but this is certainly a less ambitious spot for him. There are some serious gems here, as I’m a huge fan of Adam Schenk and C.T. Pan as well.