By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather:

There isn’t much weather to be concerned about this week. On both Thursday and Friday, the wind will absolutely pick up in the afternoon, but almost equally on both days. The AM/PM teams will see an average wind speed of 12.75 mph, and the PM/AM teams will see an average wind speed of 12.5 mph. I do not see any advantage to stacking based on tee times this week.

Core 4: My four strongest plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 15.6%): Once again, I’m somewhat shocked at the lack of respect surrounding Patrick Cantlay this week. I’m not sure what else he has to prove, but as long as he continues to go under-owned, I will continue to play him. It’s hard to imagine that a player coming off a playoff loss in a strong field just a few days ago is flying the under the radar, but here we are. My guess is that either A.) this team is boring, and people want to play the teams that they want to root for. Cantlay and Xander probably have the two most muted fan-bases of the elite players, and they aren’t winning any popularity contests when stacked up against the other elite teams this week, or B.) there are concerns about Xander’s form. I understand both of these reasons, but my numbers still have them as the best team in the tournament. Cantlay and Xander are best friends. They vacation together, their games compliment each other, they know what to expect out of each other, and they have the Ryder Cup results to back it up. It’s a good golf course for them too. Xander is the number one player in this field in average strokes gained per round at TPC Scottsdale. Cantlay is the number one player in this field in average strokes gained per round at PGA West, and not far behind at Scottsdale either. Xander hit the ball fine at the Masters, and simply couldn’t buy himself a putt. Cantlay just gained almost nine strokes on approach last week, and is the number one par five player in this field. I expect this team to win the tournament. It’s the only bet I’ve made this week.

• Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett, $8,800 (Projected ownership: 10.8%): This is more of a gut feel play than a numbers play, but I just believe in this pairing. For what it’s worth, Hatton did rate out as the 4th best individual course fit in this entire field. He’s fourth in proximity from 200 yards plus, 13th in birdies or better gained, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 21st in approach, and sixth in recent putting. Willett’s numbers aren’t as good, but this is a veteran team that has competed in majors and Ryder Cups. Both are playing well, both are good putters, and they will be under-owned. Good enough for me.

• Troy Merritt/Robert Streb, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 5.5%): Kind of an ownership play, kind of a stats play. 5.5% is probably a little too good to be true, but I do not see this team clearing double digits. The case is simple: Merritt is playing great and he is an elite putter, particularly on over-seeded Bermuda. He’s already got six Top-25s this season, and he’s coming off a quiet 12th at the RBC. Streb is a little less consistent, but he’s playing some solid golf as well. The two-time RSM winner has gained over two strokes on approach in three consecutive starts, and Merritt is one of the best putters on the planet right now. I like that combo, and I like their ownership. Hot take, but Troy Merritt might be the best putter in this field not named Cameron Smith. I could see them making a run.

• Matthew NeSmith/Taylor Moore, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 7.2%): I love how Matthew NeSmith fits on this course, and despite crumbling on Sunday at the Valspar, I like how he responded with a 12th at the RBC. The South Carolina native remains one of the best iron players in this field, as he has gained over five strokes on approach in three of his last five starts. This is probably the putting surface that you want him on as well. Hand up, this is my first time playing Taylor Moore ever. For some reason, he’s never really modeled out well for me. I’ll admit, he’s the most squeamish play of the bunch, but the talent is there. The 28-year-old has already accumulated Top-25 finishes at the Sanderson Farms, Shriners, RSM Classic, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and Genesis Invitational in just his first season on Tour. One thing about Moore that does stand out to me is that he is a strong long iron player, and NeSmith might just be playing well enough right now to mask some of his other flaws.

Chalk Report 

Please bear in mind, ownership projections are very wonky this week. I did my best, but a lot of the sites I use to fact check myself are pretty much just throwing in the towel. I feel like I have a pretty good beat on what teams will be most popular, but take all of this with a grain of salt.

• $10K: Of the four teams above $10K, I expect two of them to clear 20%: Morikawa/Hovland and Horschel/Burns. My guess is that both of those teams will somewhere between 20 and 25%. Cantlay/Schauffele and Smith/Leishman should fall closer to 15%. I have no issue with Morikawa/Hovland or Horschel/Burns, but it’s something to be weary of depending on how you treat the rest of the slate.

• $9K: Two teams in this range could clear 20% as well: Pereira/Niemann and Homa/Gooch. Both teams are reasonably priced and feature darlings in the fantasy community. I don’t necessarily believe that either are bad chalk, but I prefer Homa and Gooch. Horschel/Burns – Pereira/Niemann, Horschel/Burns – Homa/Gooch, Morikawa/Hovland – Pereira/Niemann, Morikawa/Hovland – Homa/Gooch will all be extremely popular builds this week. I get the sense that many will select a balanced build and have Pereira/Niemann or Homa/Gooch as their second team in. My guess is that most folks are scared to delve too deep into the 6K range this week. Outside of those two teams, I would imagine that Scheffler/Palmer, Poulter/Lowry, Garcia/Fleetwood, and Watson/Varner all fall somewhere in between 10 and 18%. There is no clear “leverage play” in this range that no on is using.

• $8K: Two teams in this range could be will be mega-chalk: Zalatoris/Riley and Hadwin/Svensson. I would not be shocked if both teams clear 20%. One of them certainly will. Similar to the $9K range, I believe that there will be two very popular teams, and then ownership will be pretty spread out amongst everyone else. Willett/Hatton, Im/An, Power/McDowell, Bradley/Steele, Straka/Sigg, and MacIntyre/Laird will all fall somewhere between 10 and 18%, with Im/An and Straka/Sigg on the higher end, and Willet/Hatton and Power/McDowell on the lower end? Looking for leverage? I do not believe that anyone will be using Stenson/Rose. They could be sub 5%. Poston/Kizzire should also be single digits as they are a bit over-priced, and Todd/Kirk are a little too boring to clear 10% as well.

• $7K: I do not see anything overly concerning in this range. I’m bummed to admit that McNealy/Bramlett will not be low-owned like I thought. They won’t be a problem, but 15-18% sounds about right. I still believe they are a really strong play. The only other teams that I currently have above 10% are Schwab/Ghim, Kisner/Brown, Smotherman/Higgs, and Ryder/Redman. I was not pleased to find out that I wasn’t alone on Ryder/Redman, but I have them hard capped at 14%, and my guess is that they wind up closer to 10%. Along with Hoge/Barjon and NeSmith/Moore, I think they are a sound play below 7.5K. If you are heavy on Morikawa/Hovland, Horschel/Burns, Gooch/Homa, and Niemann/Pereira, and are looking for a few teams that no one will be using, I present you Scrivener/Day, Reavie/Glover, Rai/Lipsky, Jaeger/Dahmen, Higgo/Grace, Wallace/Horsfield, McCarthy/Kohles, Grillo/Bello, and Smalley/Buckley. There’s a decent chance that all nine of those teams are in the 5% range. Unfortunately, I think they will be low owned for a reason, and the only team I really “trust” in that group is Reavie/Glover. I’m digging this little mini-range in the high 7s that I also think will go under-owned. I feel like many will skip this pocket of Snedeker/Mitchell, Schwartzel/Bezuidenhout, Streb/Merritt, and Tringale/Clark. Most folks will just pay up for Svensson/Hadwin or take the savings with Kisner/Brown, Schwab/Ghim, and McNealy/Bramlett. I feel strongly that Streb/Merritt and Tringale/Clark at sub-10% are wonderful options.

• $6K: I would be pretty surprised if anyone in this range clears 7.5%. Folks are just scared of a lot of these names, and I can’t say that I blame them. If I had to take a wild guess at the most “popular” teams, I would say Seiffert/Lebioda, Werenski/Uihlein, and Brehm/Hubbard. When I say “popular,” I’m talking 4-8%. I will have one or two lineups with Wolfe/Reeves. Don’t ask how I got there, but they are my deep sleeper of the week.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price)

1. Schauffele/Cantlay, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 15.1%)
2. Lowry/Poulter, $9,500 (Projected ownership: 11.1%)
3. Gooch/Homa, $9,100 (Projected ownership: 22.2%)
4. Watson/Varner, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 14.6%)
5. Hatton/Willett, $8,800 (Projected ownership: 10.8%)
6. Todd/Kirk, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 5.5%)
7. Merritt/Streb, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 5.5%)
8. Clark/Tringale, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 9.5%)
9. McNealy/Bramlett, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 21.9%)
10. Norlander/Noren, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 6.8%)
11. Glover/Reavie, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 3.8%)
12. NeSmith/Moore, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 7.2%)
13. Redman/Ryder, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 13.1%)
14. Hoge/Barjon, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 8.7%)
15. Wolfe/Reeves, $6,200 (Projected ownership: 0.5%)

As always, best of luck, and enjoy the golf this weekend. – AL