By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: The Plantation Course at Kapalua
• Location: Lahaina, Hawaii
• Designer: Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw
• Length: Par 73; 7,596 yards
• Hazards: Water does not come into play
• Fairways: Celebration Bermuda-grass
• Rough: Celebration Bermuda-grass 2.5 inches
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass measuring 8,722 square feet on average and running 10 to 10.5 on the stimp

 

We made it! The Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first official PGA Tour event of the new year, and many of the best players in the world will be traveling to Maui. This tournament has been around since 1953, but it has only been played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua since 1999. Qualification for the Sentry Tournament of Champions was fairly straightforward. All a player had to do was win a tournament of the PGA Tour in the prior year. Since COVID, not only are the winners of PGA Tour events exempt, but so are the 30 players that made it to last season’s FedEx Cup finals. This explains why the likes of Trey Mullinax, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, etc. are in the field this week.

Another big change in 2023 is the promotion of the Sentry Tournament of Champions to an “elevated” event. This essentially provides more of an incentive of the world’s best players to show up, and many of the purses are upwards of $20 million dollars. With only a 39 man field, this tournament will have a $15 million dollar purse, which is still way up from previous years. To be honest, I’m a bit confused at this choice for this event to be elevated. It’s occurring during the first round of the NFL playoffs, and all of the great players were going to show up anyway. The only real player you would hope to attract that usually does not play this event is Rory McIlroy, who still is skipping it! Let’s dive into the course

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is the only course on the PGA Tour schedule that plays as a par 73, and at 7,596 yards, it is amongst the longest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. The track was designed in 1991 by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, two of my favorite modern designers. Unfortunately, the Plantation Course is the only Coore/Crenshaw course that we will see all year because god forbid we actually have these guys tackle interesting architecture. Why do that when we could go to another TPC course or Fazio course? The Plantation Course isn’t even one of Coore/Crenshaw’s most celebrated works. I’d put Sand Hills, Friar’s Head, Bandon Trails, Old Sandwich, and many others above the Plantation Course. Yet still, this track is more fun than 90% of the courses we typically see on the PGA Tour schedule. The main reason why this tournament is so watchable is because the course is set on an incredibly dramatic piece of land. What Coore and Crenshaw love to do is provide a player with options off the tee in terms of the angle that can be taken to the green. I would venture to say that the defining feature of the of the Plantation Course is it’s absolutely massive fairways, that measure 59 (!!) yards wide on average. For context, these landing areas are about three times the width of Harbour Town! The Plantation Course has massive greens too, and last year it featured over an 80% fairways found & greens in regulation percentage. I’m going to guess that this is the only time in PGA Tour history with over 80% in both these fairways and greens. As one could probably gather, the Plantation Course played as the easiest course on Tour. It had the easiest set of par fours on the PGA Tour, the second easiest set of par fives on the PGA Tour. Most years, it plays as one of the eight to ten easiest courses on the schedule, except in 2020, which was a bit of an anomaly due to high winds. That’s the other piece to consider. The main defense of this course is the wind, so be sure to check back in on the weather as the week continues. Let’s talk required skillsets for success.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 33.4% of strokes gained at Kapalua have come off the tee, which is a touch below the Tour average, but that number ticks up historically.
  • Last year, Kapalua was the easiest course on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Players can get away with absolute murder on this golf course off the tee.
  • This has been the easiest course to hit fairways at essentially for the last decade. Driving accuracy last year was 80.9%, which is pretty comical when compared to the Tour average of 62%.
  • I still can’t really figure out how Cam Smith gained more strokes off the tee last year than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard is not only the best driver of the ball in the world, but he’s both more accurate and longer than Cam Smith, so I guess the only explanation is that Smith had a ceiling week, and Rahm had a down week. I think this just goes back to the point that these fairways are so incredibly wide, that it really, really comes down to the second shot. Some players may be 20 yards farther in the fairway that other players, but the shorter players will still have a manageable approach to the green from the fairway. Shorter players aren’t as penalized here as they are on a long and narrow course. If Cam Smith isn’t finding the fairway at Torrey Pines or Bay Hill, he’s hacking five irons out of the rough. Thus, I would actually argue that the Plantation Course doesn’t reward distance as much as some would expect.
  • It ranked seventh in missed fairway penalty, so if a player really drives the ball off the planet, they will be penalized. Still, players have to be in really bad shape for that to become an issue. If players simply miss in the surrounding rough, they are generally fine. The rough is extremely short and in two of the last three years, Kapalua has ranked as the easiest course on Tour in rough penalty.
  • Kapalua did rank second in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke, but again, a player must be so out of sorts with their driver that they probably deserve to lose a ball.
  • I’m not weighing off the tee metrics at all this week. One could definitely throw distance in there, but shorter players are not really disadvantaged here because short and inaccurate can kill you at certain courses, and it doesn’t kill you at all here.

 

• Approach
  • 38.0% of strokes gained at Kapalua have come on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%, although that number does come down to right around Tour average historically. Kapalua is truly a second shot golf course. You are not going to win here if you can drive the ball 380 yards. You’re going to win here if you are an awesome iron player and an awesome putter. 
  • Each of the past two years, Kapalua featured the easiest greens to hit on the entire PGA Tour, although historically, this has definitely been a course that is harder to gain strokes on approach than it is off the tee. In 2020 and 2018, it ranked as the third and fourth most difficult course on approach on the PGA Tour, while still ranking incredible easy off the tee. If the wind kicks up, Kapalua is still a pretty manageable course off the tee just because players have an ungodly amount of space.
  • Last year, Kapalua ranked as the second easiest course in approach difficulty from both under 150 yards and over 150 yards. In 2018 and 2019 however, it ranked as the hardest course on Tour in approach difficulty. Thus, if it does get windy, players will face some tricky wedge shots that will be challenging to get close to the pin. If tournament organizers want to at least make an attempt to protect par, they would give these players some wild pins because the greens are so big and heavily contoured. In 2018 and 2020, the combination of windier conditions and harder pins made the course play more challenging, but it seems as if they have eased up the last two years and leaned into this tournament becoming a real shootout.
  • I already spoke about how I don’t really care about off the tee, players do not need to be a particularly elite putter here either, and short game is essentially deemed irrelevant with how giant these putting surfaces are. Even if a player is slightly off the putting surface, they can still putt a lot of the time, and that leaves us with iron play. Of the four major statistical categories, iron play is really the one that we want to hone in on. I know that on courses with giant greens we don’t typically think iron play. We think iron play at courses like Colonial and Harbour Town, but the reason why iron play is just as important here is twofold. Firstly, nearly every player is going to hit the fairway at this course, so it’s really going to be the second shot that defines how a player scores on the hole. Kapalua actually traditionally ranks inside the top-10 in most difficult proximity to the hole because players are not simply firing at isolated targets on a flat piece of land. Sometimes to get the ball close, players need to use the land to get the ball to feed into the pin, which is why we often see a creative player such as Jordan Spieth or Cam Smith play well here. There is a linksy quality to Kapalua, and while it doesn’t play as firm as fast as an actual links course, Coore and Crenshaw still do a fine job of creating enough undulation with their greens that player do have to really think on their second shot. Not to mention the fact that because of the elevation changes, players will rarely be hitting from a flat lie to a target that is right in front of them. I am weighing approach play just as heavily here as I would at a target golf course like TPC Sawgrass or Harbour Town. If we look at how top-10 finishes have fared here, they’ve all gained a ton of strokes on approach, almost double what they’ve gained off the tee, almost three times what they’ve gained around the greens, and more than what they’ve gained putting. Last year, four of the top five players gained over five strokes on approach, so I do have a fairly comfortable weight on approach here.
  • In terms of proximity, the only two buckets that ranked greater than Tour average were flip wedge shots from 50 to 100 yards, and long iron shots from greater than 200 yards. This is not a course where players will have a bunch of short to middle irons in their hands. The best flip wedge players in this field are Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Tom Hoge, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, and J.T. Poston. The best long iron players in this field are Will Zalatoris, Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im, Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Aaron Wise, and Hideki Matsuyama. 

 

• Around the Green 
  • 12.6% of strokes gained at Kapalua last year came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. Historically, around the green has been even less crucial. Last year, Kapalua ranked 28 out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and historically, wind or no wind, it’s always been an easy course around the greens.
  • Last year, Kapalua ranked 27th out of 39 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 18th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 38th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers, so definitely no need to fret if you are a poor bunker player. The fact that Hovland found a way to lose over six strokes around the green last year is extremely dark, and the first time that we started to really wonder if his short game was a real issue.
  • I’ll keep it brief, I think you are foolish to look at around the green metrics on a course with an 85% greens in regulation percentage.

 

• Putting 
  • 33.4% of strokes gained at Kapalua last year came via the putter, which is below the Tour average of 35.6%, but that number jumps up to 38.2% historically. Last year, Jon Rahm and Cam Smith’s ball-striking was completely off the charts, but most years, this tournament really teeters the line of a putting contest.
  • Last year, Kapalua ranked 26th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and I guess that that this is typically the aspect of the course that provides the most pushback. From 2017 to 2019, it ranked as a top-four course on Tour in putting difficulty, before really loosening up the last there years. There is certainly some undulation to these greens, and Coore and Crenshaw always do a fine job with green contours. Yet these greens in particular are just so slow that players can still be fairly aggressive. They only run 10.5 on the stimp, which is incredibly slow for Tour standards.
  • Last year, Kapalua ranked 28th out of 39 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, and 27th out of 39 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet. Some players do not like slow greens, which is why the best putting metric to look at here is long-term slow green putting. They are Bermuda greens, but I don’t see a ton of value in looking at straightforward Bermuda putting because many of the Bermuda greens that we see on Tour are extremely fast. Congaree, for example, features lightning quick greens. I think you are barking up the wrong tree grouping all Bermuda courses together, but that’s just me. Slower greens often tend to neutralize poor putting, which is why we often see bad putters chip and putt very well on Paspalum, a very slow surface.
  • While I don’t think Kapalua is a particularly challenging course to putt on, any track with an 85% greens in regulation percentage is going to produce so much putting volume. We are absolutely going to see some three putts, and I would say that in terms of skills that I want my players to have at Kapalua, lag putting is certainly one of them.
  • The best lag putters in this field are Xander Schauffele, Aaron Wise, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala, Adam Svensson, and K.H. Lee. 
  • The best slow green putters in this field are Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Max Homa, Scott Stallings, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm, J.T. Poston, and Adam Svensson. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • While this course seems long on the scorecard, keep in mind that it plays as a par 73, and it has 11 par fours, only three par threes, and four par fives. It feature some extremely long holes and a ton of very short holes that are going to yield birdie opportunities. Eight of the par fours are under 425 yards, and the other three are above 520 yards, which explains the lack of middle irons at Kapalua. Players are going to have between 11 and 15 legitimate birdies holes on this courses. Add in the fact that at least three of the par fives are reachable too. The 18th hole measures 677 yards, but it plays completely downhill, and depending on the wind, players can actually reach here in two.
  • 17 of 18 holes at Kapalua have over a 10% birdie rate, and over half the holes have over a 20% birdie rate. Four holes have over a 43% birdie percentage, and 60% of players birdie the par five sixth hole I really think we want to hone in on players that make a ton of birdies and raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions. Last year, 14 of the top-15 players were positive in birdies or better gained. The players in this field that make the most birdies are Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Sam Burns, and Tom Kim. The players in this field who have had the most success in extremely easy scoring conditions are Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Seamus Power, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Aaron Wise, Tom Kim, and Russell Henley. 
  • Do not expect to see a ton of pars this week. There will certainly be a few bogeys as there some hard holes. but there is going to be a massive amount of birdies as well.
  • This goes hand in hand with birdie or better percentage, but the par fives have proven to be extremely important here. Top-10 finishes have tended to gain far more strokes on the par fives than they have on the par threes and fours. The best par five scorers in this field have been Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Aaron Wise, J.T. Poston, Max Homa, and Sam Burns.

 

• Course History/Comp Course History
  • I will be weighing course history, as I do believe this course features enough nuance where experience helps. The best players in this field at Kapalua have been Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brian Harman. 
  • There’s also a big Augusta correlation that I’m sure I will not be the first to mention. So many of the best players at Augusta have also found success at Kapalua. Part of that reason is the fact that the best players always play Kapalua and always play Augusta, but even players such as Zach Johnson and Patrick Reed have been excellent at both courses. Of course, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Dustin Johnson have all been great at both tracks as well. The correlation is simple to understand, both courses are extremely big ballparks that allow players room to operate off the tee. There’s a great deal of undulation and elevation changes at both golf courses, and neither courses will yield many flat lies. The best players in this field at Augusta have been Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, and Collin Morikawa. 

 

Model 

• Off the Tee (0%)
• Approach (20%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Proximity 50-100 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 200 yards plus (7%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (20%)
  • Approach Putting (9%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Greens (11%)
• Scoring Stats (34%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (10%)
  • Par Five Scoring (9%)
• Course History/Comp Course History (14%)
  • Kapalua (8%)
  • Augusta National (6%)

 

Top 15 

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Justin Thomas
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Tony Finau
5. Will Zalatoris
6. Sungjae Im
7. Tom Kim
8. Scottie Scheffler
9. Sam Burns
10. Corey Conners
11. Collin Morikawa
12. Russell Henley
13. Aaron Wise
14. Jon Rahm
15. Jordan Spieth

 

Best of luck this week – AL