By Andy Lack

The Basics 

• Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Location: Pebble Beah, California
• Designer: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919)
• Length: Par 72; 6,972 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on one hole
• Fairways: Poa, measuring 33 yards wide on average
• Rough: Ryegrass measuring two inches
• Greens: Poa, measuring 3,500 square feet on average

 

• Course: Spyglass Hill
• Location: Pebble Beach, California
• Designer: Robert Trent Jones Sr. (1966) with a 1999 renovation
• Length: Par 72 (7,041 yards)
• Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
• Fairways: Perennial ryegrass with Poa
• Rough: Perennial ryegrass with Poa measuring two inches
• Greens: Poa measuring 5,000 square feet on average

 

• Course: Monterrey Peninsula Country Club
• Location: Pebble Beach, California
• Designer: Robert Baldock (1960) with a Mike Strantz renovation (2003)
• Length: Par 71 (6,958 yards)
• Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass with fescue
• Rough: Ryegrass measuring 1.75 inches
• Greens: Poa measuring 6,000 square feet on average

 

The AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-AM is a professional golf tournament held annually in Northern California at a three course rotation of Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club. The event was originally known as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am, but the Crosby name was dropped in 1985 when AT & T came on board as the titular sponsor. Founded in 1937, the first iteration of this tournament was hosted by entertainer Bing Crosby at Rancho Santa Fe Golf Club in Southern California. The event eventually became a 54 hole tournament in 1947 and moved north to the Monterrey area.

Cypress Point, which many believe to be the greatest course in the country, used to be in the rotation, but it was dropped by the PGA Tour because it did not admit African American members. While that policy has since been changed by the club, unfortunately I do not believe that we will ever see it on the PGA Tour again. Cypress was replaced by the much maligned Poppy Hills, which was part of the rotation until 2010, when Monterrey Peninsula Country Club came on board. Similar to the American Express, players will rotate between Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterrey Peninsula club, before those who make the 54 hole cut play their final round at Pebble Beach, which remains the star of the show. Also similar to the American Express, I will be focusing the majority of my attention in this article on Pebble Beach because A.) we do not have shot-tracker at Spyglass Hill or Monterrey Peninsula Country, so our data is far more limited and B.) Pebble gets double the amount of rounds as the other two courses, and there is not a massive difference in the required skill-sets of the other two courses. All three courses are within 100 yards of each other in total distance, and feature extremely generous landing areas off the tee, thus placing an increased emphasis of wedge play and Poa putting. We saw first hand last week at Torrey Pines that Poa putting is going to play a massive role in determining our champion at this event. As Max Homa eloquently stated on the broadcast that Poa requires a great deal of patience and experience, and since these three courses do not have tight fairways, thick rough, or the sheer length of Torrey Pines, putting will play an even more important factor this week. Let’s take a quick look at the three courses before we dive into the stats.

Arguably the second most recognizable course in the world behind Augusta, Pebble Beach has been a staple on the PGA Tour for decades and the host to multiple major championships. The Neville and Grant design certainly gets beefed up when it hosts U.S. Opens, but for the purposes of this event, it is actually one of the easiest courses on Tour, and it consistently ranks as one of the three shortest courses on the PGA Tour, featuring the fourth shortest set of par fours and par fives, and the shortest set of par threes. It’s 33-yard wide fairways are extremely easy to hit, and historic driving accuracy at Pebble Beach is 71.9% compared to the Tour average of 61.9%, Last year, it featured the fourth widest fairways on the PGA Tour. Yet despite the extremely generous landing areas, historic greens in regulation percentage is only 63% compared to the Tour average of 66%, proving that what players do off the tee is far less important than what is required on approach. There really isn’t any advantage to being a longer hitter either, as multiple holes at Pebble feature forced layups. This easily explains why historically, there has been very little correlation between strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, or driving accuracy and success. At Pebble Beach, and Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club for that matter as well, wedge play and Poa putting is the name of the game. Seven of the 10 par fours at Pebble play between 370 and 450 yards, one of the par threes is only 100 yards long, and one of the par fives is notoriously difficult to reach in two shots. This suddenly explains why there is such a large plurality of approach shots from under 150 yards. In the absence of wind, Pebble Beach is generally one of the 10 easiest courses on the PGA Tour, but if the wind kicks up like it did in 2020, the iconic venue can still provide an extremely honest test.

Spyglass Hill is generally considered to be a more difficult course than Pebble Beach, but the Robert Trent Jones design still features massively wide landing areas off the tee. Unlike Pebble Beach, Spyglass weaves its way through forest on the back nine, and my biggest criticism of the course after playing it was that it felt like two nine hole courses pushed together, and there is very little flow to the design. Ultimately, a similar playbook can be deployed at both Spyglass and Pebble. What players do off the tee is of little relevance, while short iron play and scoring from inside 150 yards is essential.

From a pure design standpoint, many consider Monterrey Peninsula Country Club to be the most sophisticated of the three courses, especially after the extremely well received Mike Strantz renovation. Measuring a hair under 7,000 yards, MPCC typically plays as the easiest of the three courses. Driving accuracy percentage at the Baldock design is a whopping 73% and MPCC also features the easiest greens to hit of the three courses. Any course with over a 70% driving accuracy percentage and greens in regulation percentage can typically be defined as a putting contest, as MPCC provides very little pushback from tee to green for professional golfers. MPCC’s greatest defense is the wind, as it is far more exposed than Spyglass Hill. Under tranquil conditions, MPCC is a walk in the park, but we have seen the wind kick up and the course play quite challenging in previous iterations of this event. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 16.6% of strokes gained at Pebble Beach came off the tee, which was a bit of an anomaly, as that number falls historically all the way down to 12.4%, well below the Tour average of 15.2%. This certainly supports my claim that off the tee is largely de-valued at Pebble Beach, and potentially even more so at Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill.
  • Last year, Pebble Beach ranked 16th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and it generally ranks right around middle of the back to slightly harder than Tour average.
  • Last year, Pebble Beach ranked third out of 38 courses in average driving distance on par fours and par fives, which simply speaks to the fact that because of the forced layups off the tee on many of the non one-shooters, combined with the marine layer and colder air, I do not believe that there is a whole lot that players can do off the tee to separate themselves. Holes number 1, 3, 4, 8, 11, 15, and 16 (seven of the 10 par fours) are all examples of two-shotters where many players will not driver. Last year, Pebble also featured the second easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour, which also speaks to the fact that since players will not be utilizing driver off the tee, they will find the short grass more often.
  • Last year, Pebble ranked 14th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, which is actually a bit of an anomaly, as it has consistently ranked as one of the 12 holes easiest courses in missed penalty. In 2019, it ranked as the second easiest course in this same category.
  • Last year, Pebble ranked 28th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, 5th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty, and 14th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. I would say that the rough this week is far less of an issue than it was last week at Torrey Pines, but the fact that it still ranks 5th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty speaks to the fact that there are a few holes where you can find yourself in the Pacific ocean! Yet again, the opportunities for players to really find themselves in big time trouble off the tee are few and far between.
  • Also if we look at strokes gained off the tee, driving accuracy, and driving distance, there simply isn’t a whole lot of correlation whatsoever with success at this event, so Pebble is one of the few courses on Tour where I am completely ignoring any driving metrics in my model. It worked out well for me last year as I was lead to Tom Hoge by de-valuing off the tee in exchange for a massive weight on approach play, and more specifically wedge play. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 35.7% of strokes gained at Pebble Beach came via approach, which is above the Tour average of 34.7%, and that number grows even larger to 36.1% when we increase the sample size to the last decade.
  • Last year, Pebble ranked 12th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top 12 hardest courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Between 2016 and 2020, Pebble ranked inside the top-five in strokes gained approach difficulty. As Brian Windhorst would say, now why is that? Pebble is one of the shortest courses on Tour, so the vast majority of approach shots this week will come with wedges. Still, these are the smallest greens on Tour, they usually play fairly firm, and they are heavily guarded by deep and challenging bunkers.
  • Last year, Pebble Beach ranked 25th out of 38 courses in greens in regulation, which is actually quite low when considering how short of a course this is. By far, Pebble features the lowest greens in regulation percentage on a course with such a strong plurality of approach shots coming from inside 150 yards. It ranked 18th in approach difficulty from inside 150 yards, and eighth in approach difficulty from 150 yards plus. This makes a ton of sense in theory, as since these greens are such small targets, the few long iron shots that players will be faced with at Pebble Beach will be extremely challenging.
  • Pebble Beach, and Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill for that matter, are all definitively wedge-fests, as last year a whopping 20.3% of approach shots came from between 100-125 yards, which is essentially double the Tour average of 11,8%. Historically, that number jumps up even higher to 22.2%. 100-125 is really the only bucket that is aggressively above Tour average, but we will still see our fair share of shots from 75-100 and 125-150 as well. Everything above 150 yards at Pebble Beach is healthily below Tour average, so we really want to focus on wedge play this week. Last year, Tom Hoge was the best wedge player in the field entering the tournament, and we all saw how that worked out. The best long-term wedge players in the field this week are Tom Hoge, Brendon Todd, Camilo Villegas, Scott Stallings, Seung-Yul Noh, Austin Cook, Ben Griffin, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Stuard. 

 

• Around the Green
  • Last year, 10.0% of strokes gained at Pebble Beach came around the greens, which is healthily below the Tour average of 14.5%, but last year was a bit of an anomaly. That number comes in right at Tour average (14.6%) historically.
  • Last year, Pebble ranked 15th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, which again, is a bit of an anomaly. If we increase the sample size to the last decade, Pebble has historically been one of the easier courses on Tour in around the green difficulty. In 2021, it ranked 38th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty, and three of the last six years, it has ranked inside the top-three easiest courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
  • Last year, Pebble ranked 20th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 22nd in around the green difficulty from the rough, and fourth in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Some of these numbers are a bit of an anomaly, as Pebble often ranks as one of the easiest courses in around the green difficulty from both the fairway and the rough, while not always ranking inside the top-10 in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Still, if players miss a green at Pebble, they are far better suited chipping from the fairway or rough, as the Neville and Grant design does feature some of the deeper bunkers on Tour. While Pebble does not feature a low enough greens in regulation percentage for me to place a healthy weight on around the green play, I will still have a fairly standard weight on sand save percentage. The best long-term bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Byeong Hun-An, Robby Shelton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Maverick McNealy, S.H. Kim, Joel Dahmen, Charley Hoffman, David Lingmerth, and Kurt Kitayama. 

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 37.8% of strokes gained at Pebble came via the flat-stick. That number falls a touch lower historically to 37.0% percent, which is still healthily above the Tour average of 35.6%. I would not call Pebble Beach a putting contest, but an argument could be made that it teeters that line.
  • As one would come to expect on any Poa course, Pebble is one of the hardest courses to putt on on the PGA Tour, and last year, it ranked 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, which is actually the highest its ranked in the last decade. In the six prior years, Pebble has ranked inside the top-five most difficult putting courses on the PGA Tour. 
  • Similar to Torrey Pines last week, putting inside 10 feet is absolutely essential on Poa greens. Last year, Pebble ranked fourth out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, and it has consistently ranked inside the top-six courses in putting difficulty inside the five feet each of the last 10 years.
  • Last year, Pebble also ranked 10th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, including multiple years at number one. The best long-term putters inside 15 feet are Brian Gay, Kelly Kraft, Denny McCarthy, Adam Long, Justin Rose, Maverick McNealy, S.H. Kim, Bill Haas, Kyle Westmoreland, and Richy Werenski. 
  • Obviously, I will be focusing the primary amount of my attention on the best long-term Poa putters in this field as well. I did a deep-dive on the importance of Poa putting last week in my Torrey Pines preview, but this is undeniably the most polarizing surface on the PGA Tour, and it is absolutely essential to identify players with a proven track record of success on this surface. The best long-term Poa putters in this field are Maverick McNealy, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Zac Blair, Webb Simpson, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard, Troy Merritt, Brice Garnett, and Peter Malnati. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • There are a lot of different directions that we could go here, but after watching another leaderboard last week of West Coasters, PAC 12 guys, and those with a proven track record of success in California, I am going to be placing a fairly hefty weight on not just those who putt well on Poa, but also those who have experienced the most overall success on West Coast/Poa golf courses. The best long-term players in this field on West Coast/Poa golf courses have been Viktor Hovland, Nick Taylor, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Streelman, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Danny Willett, Lanto Griffin, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • Secondly, on a wedge heavy course, opportunities gained is always going to play a heavy role in my modeling. I am on the record that opportunities gained is the most predictive metric outside of strokes gained approach because it is essentially measuring how many scoring opportunities that players provide themselves with per round. It’s a perfect way to identify players that are underperforming in scoring given the amount of opportunities that they are yielding. The players that give themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet are Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Davis Riley, Alex Smalley, Kevin Streelman, Jordan Spieth, Lanto Griffin, Austin Smotherman, and Ben Griffin. Statistically speaking, if any of these players catch a hot putter this week, they are most likely to win the event.
  • As previously alluded to, Pebble Beach is the third shortest course on Tour. I would not call it a traditional, short positional course in the same vein as the Heritage, El Camaleon, Waialae, or Sedgefield, as those are all courses with narrower fairways where accuracy off the tee is of great relevance. I know I’m a broken record at this point, but off the tee play at Pebble Beach is largely irrelevant, so I don’t want to put this course in the short, positional bucket. Not to mention the fact that Pebble is also a par 72 while all of the aforementioned tracks are par 70s or par 71s. Still, Pebble is antithetical to Torrey Pines in the sense that its lack of length allows players of all shapes and sizes to compete. There are certain players that lick their chops for these sorts of weeks because they are not immediately behind the eight ball due to their inability to drive the ball long and straight. The best long-term players in this field on short courses are Seamus Power, Viktor Hovland, Maverick McNealy, Webb Simpson, Keith Mitchell, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Kisner, Ben Griffin, Andrew Putnam, and Tom Hoge. 
  • Finally, of the three course rotation, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are both par 72s, and Monterrey Peninsula is a par 71. Historically, Pebble Beach has featured one of the harder sets of par fives on the PGA Tour, and the 589 yard 14th hole annually plays over par. There has certainly been a strong correlation between par five scoring and success at Pebble Beach, which is accentuated even further at Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Peninsula, where all seven of the combined par fives are reachable in two by most players. The players in this field with the highest birdie or better percentage on par fives are Taylor Pendrith, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Dean Burmester, Kyle Westmoreland, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Percy, Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, Charley Hoffman, and Carl Yuan. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History
  • In terms of pure course history correlation, Pebble Beach ranks right around middle of the pack, and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club and Spyglass Hill both actually rank on the lower end. Still, there is something to be said for players that are comfortable in this Pro-Am format. Phil Mickelson has always thrived in a Pro-Am format because he loves schmoozing with wealthy and powerful people. Kevin Streelman and Larry Fitzgerald have also proven to be a force to be reckoned with at this event. This event features a much slower pace of play, and players with more experience in Pro-Am formats are always worth considering. The last ten winners of this event have at least played this tournament four times prior to winning. 
  • The West Coast/Poa connection is real as well. Phil Mickelson has won 17 times on the West Coast including three times here and twice at Torrey Pines. D.A. Points has also been strong on the West Coast. Brandt Snedeker has won twice at Torrey Pines and has a number of high end finishes at Kapalua, PGA West, and TPC Scottsdale. Dustin Johnson is another example of a player that has dominated at both Pebble Beach and Riviera. Even players such as Matt Kuchar  have found a great deal of success at Riviera and TPC Scottsdale as well. The list goes on.
  • Geography aside, if we also look at many of the players who have had success at Pebble Beach, such as Mickelson, Hoge, Spieth, Snedeker, and Daniel Berger, all of these players are non-elite drivers of the ball, yet incredible wedge players and often excellent Poa putters. There is a specific skill-set that I am typically looking for at Pebble Beach.
  • We already know to examine the 2019 U.S. Open, but the 2018 U.S. Amateur was also hosted at Pebble Beach, won by none other than Viktor Hovland. Davis Riley and Will Gordon also made it to the quarter-finals of the 2018 U.S. Amateur.
  • Finally, while the course set-up was notably harder, the players in this field that finished top-25 at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach were Justin Rose (3rd), Chesson Hadley (9th), Danny Willett (12th), Matt Fitzpatrick (12th), Viktor Hovland (12th), Byeong Hun-An (16th), Webb Simpson (16th), and Matt Kuchar (16th). 
  • The best players in this field at Pebble Beach have been Kevin Streelman, Maverick McNealy, Nate Lashley, Matthew NeSmith, Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, J.B. Holmes, Arjun Atwal, Marcel Siem, and Danny Willett. 
  • The best players in this field at Spyglass Hill have been Joel Dahmen, Jordan Spieth, Beau Hossler, Nick Watney, Luke Donald, Seung-Yul Noh, Justin Rose, Kevin Streelman, Seamus Power, and Denny McCarthy. 
  • The best players in this field at Monterrey Peninsula Country Club have been Sung Kang, Jonas Blixt, Andrew Putnam, Brice Garnett, Nick Taylor, Jonathan Byrd, Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, Mark Hubbard, and Lucas Glover. 
  • Outside of the sheer West Coast Poa connection to Torrey Pines and Riviera, the only other PGA Tour course that I would go out of my way to highlight in terms of pure skill-set correlation would be Port Royal, host of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Both Pebble Beach and Port Royal are coastal courses with generous landing areas off the tee that de-emphasize driving and place a much greater emphasis on wedge play, scoring inside 150 yards, and putting. The best players in this field at Port Royalhave been Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Thomas Detry, Justin Lower, Seamus Power, Scott Stallings, Ben Griffin, Kevin Yu, and Peter Malnati. 

 

Model 

• Off the Tee (0%)
• Approach (30%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-125 yards (10%)
• Around the Green (6%)
  • Sand Saves (6%)
• Putting (20%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting Poa (10%)
  • Putting Inside 10 feet (10%)
• Scoring Stats (29%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Poa Golf Courses (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Golf Courses Under 7,200 Yards (8%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
• Course History/Comp Course History (15%)
  • Pebble Beach (6%)
  • Spyglass Hill (4%)
  • Monterrey Peninsula Country Club (3%)
  • Port Royal (2%)

 

Model Top 20 

1. Tom Hoge
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Lanto Griffin
4. Mark Hubbard
5. Jordan Spieth
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Ben Griffin
8. Chesson Hadley
9. Webb Simpson
10. Vaughn Taylor
11. Andrew Putnam
12. Matthew NeSmith
13. David Lipsky
14. Robby Shelton
15. Erik Van Rooyen
16. Matt Fitzpatrick
17. Thomas Detry
18. Greyson Sigg
19. Nick Taylor
20. Will Gordon

 

Best of luck this week – AL