Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: Torrey Pines (South Course)
- Location: La Jolla, California
- Designer: William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957), Renovation by Rees Jones (2001, 2019)
- Length: Par 72; 7,765 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole
- Fairways: Kikuyu with Ryegrass
- Rough: Kikuyu with Ryegrass measuring 3 inches
- Greens: Poa Annua measuring 5,000 square feet on average
- Course: Torrey Pines (North Course)
- Location: La Jolla, California
- Designer: William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957), Renovation by Tom Weiskopf (2016)
- Length: Par 72; 7,258 yards
- Hazards: Zero
- Fairways: Kikuyu with Ryegrass
- Rough: Kikuyu with Ryegrass
- Greens: Bent-grass measuring 6,000 square feet on average
The Farmer’s Insurance Open is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour held annually at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California as part of the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing. The tournament originated as the San Diego Open in 1952 and used that name it its title through 1985. The first two editions of the event were played at San Diego Country Club and Rancho Santa Fe Golf Club. The San Diego Open moved around to multiple courses in the greater San Diego area in the 1960’s, before officially beginning its present relationship with Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. Torrey Pines is a public 36 hole golf facility owned by the City of San Diego.
In its current tournament set-up, players will split their first 36 holes between the North and South courses, before those who make the cut will play their final 36 holes at the South Course. The South Course is certainly the more acclaimed of the two, and it has hosted the U.S. Open twice, won by Tiger Woods in 2008 and Jon Rahm in 2021.
I’m extremely excited for this tournament, and I say that as someone who is on the record that Torrey Pines is one of the biggest architectural failures of the last century given the piece of land that it sits on. I’ve been to this tournament three times, as well as the 2021 U.S. Open, and I’ve also played the South course this past summer. If you are not a resident of San Diego, do not play this course. It’s up there with Doral as one of the worst public values in the country. The San Diego resident price is pretty fair however, and I suppose that’s how it should be. Both courses are owned by the City of San Diego, so while I am not a fan of this golf course (I’ll expand upon the why later), I love this tournament. I hope people can understand the difference.
For many golf fans, this feels like opening day. The tournament always possesses a strong field. It’s actually weaker in 2023 than in years past, but is still headlined by Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa. Yes, we have already seen many of the elite players at Kapalua, but that tournament always feels more like scrimmage to me. The Farmer’s is a real even on a real golf course that actually tests players from tee to green and asks them many of the same questions that a major championship will. Can you drive the ball long and straight? Can you consistently strike a long iron? Is your short game and putting inside 10 feet trustable? We are not going to learn much about the state of a player’s game from Kapalua, Waialae, or any of the three courses at the American Express. To me, this tournament is the real barometer of where the elite players stand as we approach the final countdown to the Masters. There’s no way to fake it around Torrey Pines. Either you’ve got it, or you don’t.
For the reason outlined above, I actually believe that Torrey Pines is one of the easier tournaments to handicap on the PGA Tour, and it’s one that I’ve had a great deal of success at in the past. The 2021 U.S. Open was my first really successful DraftKings week (shoutout going all in on a 1% Franceso Molinari). I did not hit Luke List last year, but he was ranked second in my model behind only Jon Rahm. I remember saying on the podcast that this was the absolute perfect spot for Luke List, but I still just couldn’t do it. It’s Luke List, no chance he can make enough putts to win anything! This was certainly one of my least proud moments of 2022 from a betting perspective, and since my model has performed so well here, I’ve vowed to keep it really simple and trust that I completely understand exactly what it takes to succeed at Torrey Pines. The Farmer’s Insurance Open is nothing like the American Express where every single player in the field can win if they catch a hot putter. You need to possess a very specific skill-set to win at Torrey Pines. Of course, there are outliers, but let’s run through the last 10 winners of this tournament.
- 2022: Luke List (-15) over Will Zalatoris (-15) (Playoff)
- 2021: Patrick Reed (-14) over Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Henrik Norlander, Ryan Palmer, Xander Schauffele (-9)
- 2020: Marc Leishman (-15) over Jon Rahm (-14)
- 2019: Justin Rose (-21) over Adam Scott (-19)
- 2018: Jason Day (-10) over Alex Noren, Ryan Palmer (-10) (Playoff)
- 2017: Jon Rahm (-13) over Charles Howell, C.T. Pan (-10)
- 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6) over K.J. Choi (-5)
- 2015: Jason Day (-9) over Harris English, J.B. Holmes, Scott Stallings (-9)
- 2014: Scott Stallings (-9) over K.J. Choi, Jason Day, Graham DeLaet, Marc Leishman, Pat Perez (-8)
- 2013: Tiger Woods (-14) over Brandt Snedeker, Josh Teater (-10)
From a bird’s eye view, Patrick Reed and Brandt Snedeker (who also won in 2012) are really the only outliers in terms of players that do not possess above average driving distance and excellent long iron play. Occasionally, we will see a player with an absolutely elite short game (Reed, Snedeker, Alex Noren) find success here, but for the most part, Torrey Pines is all about hitting the ball a long way off the tee and elite iron play. I dug into how Brandt Snedeker has been able to buck this trend. Both times he won, he lost strokes off the tee, but he made up for it by gaining a ton of strokes around the green and putting. He was also awesome at the much easier North Course. If you are not an elite driver or long iron player, the Snedeker route is your only roadmap. It’s absolutely essential to take advantage of the North Course, which is far more kind to shorter players and less elite ball-strikers. In 2016, Snedeker shot a 69 in brutal conditions on the North Course. In 2012, in much easier conditions, he shot a 64 on the North Course. There is a way to win at Torrey Pines if you are not Jon Rahm or Jason Day off the tee, but it requires an absolutely short game. In 2021, Patrick Reed gained 8.4 strokes around the green and putting.
I imagine that a common narrative this week will be that certain players simply cannot win at Torrey Pines. I would say the better way to look at it is that there certain players that have far a far easier roadmap than others. This is also why the Farmer’s is such a fun DraftKings week as well. Groupthink generally tends to develop at a course like this, and don’t get me wrong, a lot of that groupthink is true and I agree with many of the prevailing narratives surrounding Torrey Pines. Examples of this include that Torrey Pines is a bomber’s paradise that provides a huge advantage to great long iron players. This is not incorrect, although I am likely far higher on short game, Poa putting, and putting inside 10 feet than most this week. You will undoubtedly be able to get a nice discount on players that do not possess a Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jason Day-esque skill-set. Shorter players will certainly go overlooked at a course such as Torrey Pines, which is why I always preach not look at pure distance off the tee, but rather at how players have performed on longer courses. For example, Patrick Reed, Brian Harman, and Mackenzie Hughes are three players that are extremely short off the tee, but have still experienced their fare share of success on longer courses. Part of the reason for this is that longer golf courses also tend to yield a low greens in regulation percentage, placing a greater emphasis on short game. I’ll always go back to the Justin Thomas quote on this subject. JT was asked what the biggest key was to winning major championships, and he said short game. I found this fascinating, as most believe that success on these types of courses comes completely down to ball-striking. Let’s dive into the basics of these courses before we run through the important stats.
I’ll get the North Course out of the way quickly because we will be focusing far less of our attention on it this week. I already alluded to the importance of going low on the North Course, and measuring a full 500 yards shorter than the South Course, there is no question that it is the easiest of two tracks on the property. Outside of the difference in length, the other biggest reason why the North Course is much easier is because it features Bent-grass greens, as opposed to Poa greens on the South Course. I’ll dive way deeper into why Poa is such a challenging surface in the putting section, but the North Course is far more similar to many of the other Bent-grass courses players will be tasked with throughout the PGA Tour season, such as Detroit Golf Club or TPC Deere Run. Two of the last three years, the North Course has actually ranked as one of the top-10 easiest courses on the PGA Tour. The Bell design is quite short for Tour standards, and it features four extremely gettable par fives which all measure under 560 yards and are reachable by even the shortest of hitters. The North Course also features two drivable par fours, and seven holes with over a 25% birdie rate. It features a much higher greens in regulation percentage, and it’s a short enough course with such little trouble off the tee that players can swing away freely with driver and still have no problem hacking wedges out of the rough.
On the other hand, the South Course is totally different story, mainly because it’s gotten the Rees Jones treatment, which includes a major increase in length, narrowing of fairways, and over-bunkering greens. This style of renovation undeniably makes golf courses, but also less interesting. The South Course was the longest course on the PGA Tour last year, including the majors, and it featured the second longest set of par fours and fives on the PGA Tour last year as well. The 26-yard wide fairways are the third most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, and they are under half the size of the landing areas at Kapalua. Historic driving accuracy at the South Course has been 52% compared to the Tour average of 62%. It’s essentially a coin flip whether the best players in the world can find the fairway at this track. Greens in regulation percentage at the South Course is only 62% compared to the Tour average of 66%, and scrambling percentage is only 51% compared to the Tour average of 58%. Add all of this up, and the South Course annually ranks as one of the 10 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour schedule.
I have a complicated relationship with Rees Jones. I have played a ton of his work, and he actually just completed a massive re-design at my home course in Los Angeles. I’ve had the pleasure on being on a few member’s zoom calls with Jones, and have have even been able to of ask him a few questions. I think the work that he did on my home course is far more interesting than what he’s done at Torrey Pines, for what it’s worth. If I was to sum up his entire body of work in one sentence, it’s that he creates strategically homogenous courses. Jones asks players the exact same question over and over again, which is why you are never going to hear us in the architecture circles sing his praises. I actually do believe that his golf courses serve a nice purpose on the PGA Tour, as they do a really solid job of separating elite tee to green play from average tee to green play. On the other hand, I think that Torrey Pines is an absolutely horrible U.S. Open venue. Most of the par fours at Torrey Pines, and Jones courses in general, are very similar in strategy. What Torrey Pines is essentially asking you over and over again is, can you hit your driver long and straight? Can you hit a high four-iron and get it to stop on a small green? That is the strategy on 14 out of 18 holes at Torrey Pines.
Almost 50% of all approach shots this week come from over 175 yards, and last year, 34% of approach shots came from over 200 yards, good for the highest percentage on Tour. Seven of the par fours are over 450 yards, and all of the par threes are above 175 yards, so Torrey Pines is essentially asking you over and over and over and over again if you can hit a long iron. If you have that shot in your arsenal, guess what? You are going to have success at Torrey Pines. Jon Rahm has that shot in his arsenal, Rory has that shot in his arsenal, Xander has that shot in his arsenal, Jason Day has that shot in his arsenal. So does Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, etc. The list goes on. These are the types of players that can hit it 315 off the tee and hit a high four iron, and that’s only reason why you see good leaderboards at Torrey Pines. We see great leaderboards at Torrey Pines not because it’s a good golf course, but rather because it places an emphasis on a specific skill-set that only the best players in the world tend to possess. Torrey Pines is the polar opposite of a course like the La Quinta Country Club, where that skill-set is not required. If you are long off the tee and an elite long iron player, you have a massive advantage at Torrey Pines. This does not mean that a player such as Patrick Reed or Brandt Snedeker can’t win here, but you better go low on the North Course, and chip and putt your ass off on the South Course. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- 12.3% of strokes gained at Torrey Pines last year came off the tee, which is well below the Tour average of 15.2%. The number drops even lower historically to 11%, which was certainly surprising to me.
- Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 14th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last 10 year, it has ranked harder than Tour average in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, often finding itself inside the top-10.
- Torrey Pines features the third most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, and it featured the sixth lowest driving accuracy on the PGA Tour last year.
- It ranked 25th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 11th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, 34th out of 38 in non-rough penalty, and 25th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. What does this tell us about Torrey Pines? Essentially, the fairways are so narrow that even the most accurate of drivers will miss them routinely. This actually yields an inherent advantage to the longer players. An extreme example of this would be what happened at the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. The fairways were so narrow and the rough was so thick, that it essentially all came down to distance. Torrey Pines is a less extreme of this, but embodies a similar idea. I assume most readers are not super familiar with Kikuyu rough, as it is only found in a very specific part of the country. Let me tell you, it’s not fun, as evidenced by the fact that Torrey Pines ranks 11th in rough penalty. With even the most accurate of drivers missing these fairways, distance turns into an essential factor, as it is much easier to hack a 9-iron out of Kikuyu than it is a 5-iron. The longest players in this field off the tee are Cameron Champ, Wyndham Clark, Taylor Pendrith, Jhonattan Vegas, Joseph Bramlett, Jon Rahm, Thomas Detry, Trey Mullinax, Brandon Matthews, and Callum Tarren.
- Do not even dream of playing those who are both short and inaccurate unless they have an absolutely filthy short game, ala Patrick Reed. Again, these types of players can have success here , but Reed is a massive outlier. He’s probably going to end up lost to history because he went to LIV, but Reed has one of the best short games of the last 50 years. It’s that good. He should not be used as an example that short and inaccurate players can compete here. For this reason, I really wanted to identify players that have had the most success on long courses with difficult fairways to hit. The players who have gained the most strokes off the tee on long courses with narrow fairways are Cameron Champ, Jon Rahm, Jhonattan Vegas, Brendan Steele, Luke List, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, and Jason Day.
- Approach
- 35.8% of strokes gained at Torrey Pines last year came on approach, which is slightly above the Tour average of 34.7%. That number falls to 34.3% historically, which brings us right back to Tour average.
- Last year, Torrey Pines had the 14th most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked inside the top-15 in toughest greens to hit on the PGA Tour. Despite the vast majority of approach shots coming from over 150 yards, and nearly 50% of them coming out of the rough, there is nothing interesting or complex about the greens at Torrey Pines. There are not enough slopes that will feed balls away from the hole or off the green, which is really the only reason why greens in regulation percentage isn’t the lowest on Tour, given the length of the course and the size of the fairways and greens.
- Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 26th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty, and it routinely ranks slightly easier than Tour average in strokes gained approach difficulty, which further just speaks to the fact that it is all about length on this course. There’s nothing tricky or deceiving about the approach shots at Torrey Pines. It’s all out in front of you.
- The above average proximity buckets last year were 150-175 yards and 200 yards plus. Historically, 175-200 yards has been far more important, so I would imagine that last year was a it of an anomaly. Historically, two thirds of approach shots at Torrey Pines have come from over 150 yards. Through and through, this is a mid to long iron course. Last year, a whopping 34% of approach shots came from over 200 yards. That number falls closer to 27% historically, yet still, you will be hard pressed to find a course on the PGA Tour where long iron play is more important.
- The best mid iron (150-200 yards) players in this field are Tony Finau, Lee Hodges, Vaughn Taylor, Collin Morikawa, Matthew NeSmith, Satoshi Kodaira, Justin Rose, Si Woo Kim, Jon Rahm, and Justin Lower.
- The best long iron players in this field are Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, Austin Eckroat, Alex Smalley, Max Homa, Emiliano Grillo, and Cameron Champ.
- Around the Green
- Last year, 18.8% of strokes gained at Torrey Pines came around the green, which is healthily above the Tour average of 14.5%. Historically, that number does fall a lot closer to Tour average (14.9%).
- Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 17th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked right around Tour average in around the green difficulty. Again, there is very little color and undulation to these complexes. The biggest defense is that putting on Poa is incredibly difficult, which I will expand upon in the next section.
- Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 24th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 5th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 24th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Again, the green complexes here are extremely benign, but chipping out of Kikuyu is absolutely no fun. Ranking fifth last year in around the green difficulty from the rough is a bit of an anomaly, as it historically ranks closer to around 13th in that category. Still, there always seems to be such a strong correlation at Torrey Pines between elite short game and success. Last year, 13 of the top 15 players on the leaderboard gained strokes around the green.
- The reason why I have such a large weight on around the green play at Torrey Pines is two-fold. Reason number one is that the course has a fairly low greens in regulation percentage, which is quite simply going to increase the volume of short game shots. That’s just math.
- The bigger reason why I am so heavy on short game here is that Torrey Pines is the hardest course on the PGA Tour in putting inside five feet. Essentially, routinely chipping it to three and a half feet at other courses is more than acceptable, yet at Torrey Pines, nothing outside of a tap-in is a give in. Over time, the difference in players that can consistently chip it to two feet instead of five feet will create massive separation. From a pure numbers perspective, if a player chips it to five feet on every short game shot, they are are going to miss far more of those putts than at any course on the PGA Tour, thus placing a massive emphasis on those who can chip it to tap in range. The best long-term around the green players in this field are Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, William McGirt, Stephan Jaeger, Scott Piercy, Tony Finau, Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Wyndham Clark, and Robby Shelton.
- Putting
- Last year, 33.1% of strokes gained at Torrey Pines have come via putting, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%, but that is a bit of an anomaly, as that number jumps all the way up to 39.8% historically. This would almost make you believe that Torrey Pines is a “putting contest,” but the reality of the situation is that it just speaks to how important putting on Poa is this week.
- Last year, Torrey Pines ranked third out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and eight of the last 10 years, it has ranked inside the top-five in strokes gained putting difficulty. This has nothing to do with the undulation or contouring on these greens, and everything to do with the fact that Poa is an incredibly difficult surface.
- Let’s talk about Poa, which most golfers are not familiar with unless they play a lot of golf in California. There’s certainly a difference between West Coast Poa and East Coat Poa, as East Coast Poa is usually blended with Bent-grass. We see this Bent/Poa blend at a number of U.S. Open sites, such as Winged Foot, Shinnecock Hills, and Oakmont, as well as regular PGA Tour stops such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC River Highlands. West Coast Poa, on the other hand, is a much darker, splotchier surface that we essentially only see at Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach. Many players simply do not jive with with Poa, and tilters beware, we will see more misses inside 10 feet at Torrey Pines than any other course on the PGA Tour. Poa is a far more inconsistent surface than a pure Bent-grass or even a grainy Bermuda. There are internal and subtle breaks with Poa that are simply not visible to the eye. Poa is a confidence surface, and there are going to be countless times where you will see a player miss a short putt and look very surprised and blame it on their putter. Poa can make players look absolutely lost if they lose their confidence on Poa. Thus, I am looking extremely closely this week at players who are comfortable on Poa, and have a proven track record of success on this surface. The best Poa putters in this field are Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, Xander Schauffele, Zac Blair, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard, Brice Garnett, Peter Malnati, Patrick Rodgers, and Jon Rahm.
- Here’s a quote from Marc Leishman describing the challenge, “I grew up on this grass, I grew up on Kikuyu fairways, Poa greens. It’s very hit or miss. You either putt great on it or you putt terribly.”
- Jason Day, who has also had tremendous success on this surface, echoed a similar sentiment, “Obviously with Poa, it adds a little bit more, nervous feeling when you hit certain putts.”
- Finally, here’s Poa God Brandt Snedeker, “What I love most about Poa is you have to be aggressive and you got to hit a putt almost perfect. You got to give it a chance to go in, you got to get it rolling hard on the green. And I think that’s what my stroke does best, because I hit them aggressive, get the ball rolling really fast. When you do that, the ball holds it’s line. If you miss a putt a little bit or hit a weak putt, it’s going to bump off. And I love it because it eliminates half the guys, like Kevin Kisner (catching strays!), because they don’t like it and they don’t want to be on it. If they get a bad bounce they think the greens are awful.” This is certainly true. There are many players that will be the first to admit that they hate Poa, and most of those players are not in the field this week.
- The stats completely back this up, as each of the last three years, Torrey Pines has been either the hardest or second hardest course in putting inside five feet. Each of the past 10 years, it has ranked inside the top eight in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet. It gets a lot easier from over 15 feet because there’s barely any undulation to these greens, so actually reading greens is not difficult. Compared to other courses, short putting at Torrey Pines is exponentially harder than lag putting, and I think it’s safe to say that Torrey Pines is the hardest putting course inside 10 feet on the entire PGA Tour. I do not know how much others will value this, but I am looking extremely closely at short putting this week. The best long-term putters inside 10 feet are Taylor Montgomery, Kelly Kraft, Max Homa, Adam Long, S.H. Kim, Justin Rose, Justin Lower, Kyle Westmoreland, Vincent Norrman, and Maverick McNealy.
- Scoring Stats
- There are a lot of stats that you could plug in here that I have no problem with, such as scrambling, bogey avoidance, strokes gained total in difficult scoring conditions, etc. I chose to go down the route of identifying players that have performed the best on long courses. At the end of the day, length is the defining feature of Torrey Pines. It’s the longest course on the PGA Tour, and like I discussed with Rees Jones, there’s nothing tricky about this course. It’s all out in front of you. The best players in this field on long golf courses are Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Jhonattan Vegas, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Collin Morikawa.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- I go back and forth on the importance of course history at Torrey Pines. It ranks 13th out of the 38 current PGA Tour courses in correlation between course history and success, so it’s certainly above average in terms of the importance in course history. Still, it’s not close to even in the ballpark of an Augusta, Waialae, Harbour Town, or Bay Hill, in terms of of course history correlation. I do believe that there are certain players that are essentially locks to play well here every year because the course caters to such an extremely specific skill-set. One of the reasons why I believe that Torrey Pines is one of the easiest courses to handicap on the PGA Tour is because there is not a lot of randomness to the leaderboards. For example, if we look at the top-10 players in average strokes gained per round at Torrey Pines (minimum eight rounds), we have Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Louis Oosthuizen, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel, Will Zalatoris, Brandt Snedeker, Sergio Garcia, Charles Howell III, Xander Schauffele, and Bubba Watson. Every single one of these players except Brandt Snedeker is either a great driver of the ball, a great long iron player, or both. Even players such as Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, and Charles Howell III, who will not blow you away with distance, are excellent long iron players. I’m sure you will notice a massive correlation between those who play well at Torrey Pines and Augusta. Half of the top-10 players in average strokes gained per round at Torrey Pines have also won the Masters, and nine out of the top-10 players in average strokes gained per round at Torrey Pines have posted one, if not multiple, top-fives at Augusta. The reason for this is very simple. Torrey Pines and Augusta National have absolutely nothing in common from an architectural or agronomical perspective, but they both simply ask a player four very important questions: Can you hit the ball a long way off the tee? Are you an elite long iron player? Do you have an elite short game? Are you a really good putter inside 10 feet? If the answer to at least three out of those four question is yes, chances are that you’ve had some success at Torrey Pines and Augusta.
- The argument against course history is very simple as well. Torrey Pines is such an execution based golf course, that if a player possesses a very specific skill-set, chances are they are immediately going to succeed at Torrey Pines. Viktor Hovland finished runner-up at Torrey Pines in his second appearance here because he fits the mold. Will Zalatoris found success here immediately. Even a player such as Aaron Rai or Austin Smotherman, who are great long iron players, were able to find success at Torrey in their first appearance.
- The last thing that I would mention is the West Coast angle. I do believe that players who grew up putting on Poa greens possess a huge advantage here. This might be something to pay attention to with newcomers. I’m not sure how good I would feel about playing a Southeastern Bermuda guy on their first appearance at Torrey Pines. If you are playing a newcomer, check where they grew up and what college they went to. Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm, and Collin Morikawa are all PAC-12 guys. Charley Hoffman, J.J. Spaun, Xander Schauffele, and Phil Mickelson are all San Diego guys who have also had a bunch of success at Torrey. Of course, Brandt Snedeker continues to be the outlier of all outliers as a Vanderbilt graduate from Tennessee.
- The best players at Torrey Pines (South Course) have been Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, J.B. Holmes, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Rodgers.
- I’ve already discussed the importance of going low on the North Course, especially if you are not one who fits the proto-typical Torrey Pines skill-set. The best players at Torrey Pines (North Course) have been Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Beau Hossler, Ryan Palmer, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Gary Woodland, Harris English, Bill Haas, and Justin Rose.
- There are a number of longer and more difficult courses on the PGA Tour such as Quail Hollow, Bay Hill, and Muirfield Village, that require a similar skill-set to Torrey Pines, but I did not feel the need to look more extensively at those courses individually because I already have such a hefty weight on long golf courses. The only comp course that I see value in looking at individually is Riviera. Despite the fact that these courses are extremely different architecturally, Kikuyu rough and Poa greens are so incredibly unique. I want to find all the examples I can of those who have a proven track record of success on this type of agronomy, especially when it comes to putting, I am also looking closely at how players have performed at Pebble Beach. The best players in this field at Riviera have been Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Max Homa, Seung-yul Noh, Bill Haas, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama.
Model
- Off the Tee (16%)
- Driving Distance (8%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Long Courses with Narrow Fairways
- Approach (34%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (14%)
- Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
- Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
- Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)
- Around the Green (14%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (14%)
- Putting (16%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Poa (8%)
- Putting Inside 10 feet (8%)
- Scoring Stats
- Strokes Gained Total: Long Golf Courses (8%)
- Course History/Comp Course History (12%)
- Torrey Pines South Course (7%)
- Torrey Pines North Course (3%)
- Riviera (2%)
Model Top 20
- Tony Finau
- Xander Schauffele
- Jon Rahm
- Will Zalatoris
- Justin Thomas
- Sungjae Im
- Max Homa
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Cameron Davis
- Si Woo Kim
- Justin Rose
- Luke List
- Collin Morikawa
- Wyndham Clark
- Gary Woodland
- Emiliano Grillo
- J.J. Spaun
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Matthew NeSmith
- Thomas Detry
Best of luck this week – AL
