Andy’s 2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About Waialae
The Basics
- Course: Waialae Country Club
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Designer: Seth Raynor (1927) with a Tom Doak restoration (2017)
- Length: Par 70; 7,044 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
- Fairways: Bermuda-grass, measuring 34 yards wide on average
- Rough: Bermuda grass, measuring 3 inches (the rough is up .75 inches from last year per the GSCAA)
- Greens: TifDwarf Bermuda grass running 11 on the stimp
While I was thoroughly excited for last week’s Tournament of Champions, it pales in comparison to how I feel about this week from a betting and fantasy golf perspective. Call me old school, but I’m sucker for a good old fashioned full field, four day tournament with a cut, and that is exactly what we have on our hands this week at the Sony Open. The first full field tournament of the year is one of the longest running events on the entire PGA Tour schedule, and it has been hosted at the Seth Raynor designed Waialae Country Club every year since its inception in 1965.
While understated in its feel, the Sony Open is a tournament full of rich history. In 1983, Isao Aoki became Japan’s first ever PGA Tour winner. He holed out a wedge for an eagle three on the 72nd hole to beat Jack Renner by a single stroke. In 2004, the Sony Open was the first tournament to grant a sponsors invitation to Michelle Wie at the age of 14 years old. She was actually granted a sponsor’s invite for four straight years, but failed to ever make the cut. At this event in 2007, amateur Tadd Fujikawa became the second youngest player ever at 16 years old to make a cut on the PGA Tour. Even last year provided some fireworks, as Russell Henley gave up a six stroke lead on the back nine to eventual champion Hideki Matsuyama, who gave us one of the shots of the year with a three-wood to tap in range in the playoff. Quite simply, this tournament nearly always delivers, and I have no reason to believe that this will not be the case this year as well.
The field is headlined by defending champion Hideki Matsuyama, and rising super-star Tom Kim, who I suspect will be a very popular selection this week depending on his odds. Usually I’m a little cooler on Kim than market, but I can’t fault anyone who is enamored with him this week. Spoiler alert, but he’s the number three player in my model this week, and I believe this Waialae is a damn near perfect fit for his skill-set. Let’s get on to discussing the course.
By Tour standards, Waialae is one of the easiest tests of the season. Measuring just a hair over 7,000 yards, it ranked as the sixth shortest course on the schedule. Players will find no pushback when it comes to length, which I will expand upon further when we break down the holes. In the absence of wind, Waialae falls squarely in the birdie-fest category. In 2022, it played as the fifth easiest course on the PGA Tour schedule, and every single year outside of of the extremely windy 2020 when it played as the eighth toughest course of the season, the Raynor design has ranked as one of the ten easiest courses on the PGA Tour. The par fives are a total cakewalk, and it’s nearly criminal that the ninth hole is even called a par five. Each of the past five years, Waialae has featured the easiest set of par fives on the PGA Tour. There isn’t a ton of trouble on the course any way we slice it. Last year, it ranked 30th out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round, and 20th out of 38 courses in re-loads per round. Unlike many coastal courses, water only comes into play on five holes.
In terms of the actual layout, Waialae is a standard par 70 featuring four par threes, 12 par fours, and two par “fives.” In totality, the par threes provide the most pushback. All four play between 176 and 204 yards, and rank as the fifth, sixth, seventh, and 14th toughest holes on the course, with three of the four historically playing over par. Of the 12 par fours, while none are drivable, nine out of the 12 play under 460 yards. The only true long par fours are the 1st and 13th, and they respectively play as the first and third most difficult holes on the course. The two par fives are truly a joke. The 18th measures 551 yards, and ranks as the second easiest hole on the course, playing to a scoring average of 4.46, with a 50% birdie rate! The ninth hole is even more of a joke, measuring just 506 yards on the scorecard, playing as easiest hole on the course, yielding a scoring average of 4.33, and featuring over a 60% birdie rate and a 6.5% eagle rate! If players do not birdie both of the par fives at Waialae, they are really falling behind the pack. The fact that nine of the 12 par fours play between 350 and 460 yards also explains the fact that this is a tournament that is nearly always won by the player that possesses the best combination of mid to short iron play and putting inside 15 feet. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
Off the Tee
Before I mention any off the tee metrics, it’s incredibly important to note that the rough is longer this week than in prior iterations. Per the GSCAA, Waialae’s rough is measuring a full three inches this week compared to the usual 2.25 inches. How much of a difference this will make remains to be seen, but it’s worth considering the fact that there might be more of a penalty for missed fairways than in prior seasons. I am adding a bit more of a weight to how players perform off the tee on shorter courses, but I am still not going out of my way to add in any additional driving accuracy metrics because I am still firmly in the camp that Waialae is a second shot and putting course. This simply feels like a concerted effort from the PGA Tour to attempt to protect par on a great course that is certainly outdated for 2023 equipment and is on a piece of property that does not lend itself to simply adding 500 yards to the scorecard.
Last year, 17.7% of strokes gained at Waialae came off the tee, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 15.2%. Historically, that number drops to 17.0%, which is still comfortably above Tour average.
Last year, Waialae ranked 25th out of courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Still, compared to the other three major skill-sets, off the tee has actually been the most difficult facet to gain strokes on, and given the longer rough, we can expect that trend to continue in 2023.
Last year, Waialae ranked completely middle of the pack in driving accuracy, but in prior years, it has ranked slightly harder than Tour average in driving accuracy, despite featuring the 12th widest fairways on the PGA Tour. I don’t have a great explanation for this. It’s not as if Waialae is a driver heavy course. Player can truly do whatever they please off the tee. Even shorter hitters will find themselves with an approach shot under 200 yards on 85% the holes.
Last year, Waialae ranked ninth out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked around average, to slightly harder than average in rough penalty. Again, I expect it Waialae to rank inside the top 10 in rough penalty, although there is never a huge correlation between players who feature elite driving accuracy and success at Waialae.
Last year, Waialae ranked as the easiest course on Tour in non-rough penalty, which speaks to the fact that there is barely any trouble on this course. I do believe that it’s important to play from fairway here, but I would actually avoids statistics such as good drive percentage here because I do not believe there is a grave penalty for wayward driving. Being in the rough is not great, but similar to a course such as Torrey Pines, missing a fairway by one yard and missing a fairway by 30 yards often yields a similar result. The fairway bunkers are extremely shallow and benign at Waialae as well.
Last year, Waialae ranked 20th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Add all of this together and I believe the best way to measure off the tee at Waialae is to examine how players perform off the tee on courses of a similar nature. There is no distinctive strategy off the tee at Waialae. It is not a course that completely takes driver out of your hands, nor it is a course that provides a massive reward for being either deadly accurate or extremely long. I’m most curious to identify players who gain the most strokes off the tee on shorter courses of a similar nature, as I believe multiple strategies can be employed at Waialae. This tournament can be won by a player who chooses to hit driver on every par four and par five on the course, and this tournament can also be won by a player who leaves his driver at home. The players who gain the most strokes off the tee on courses on short courses that are not entirely defined as positional are Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Cameron Davis, Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo, Kramer Hickok, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Brendan Steele, and Keegan Bradley.
Approach
Last year, 34.5% of approach shots at Waialae came on approach, which is right around the Tour average of 34.7%. That number drops a tick historically to 32.1%, which is still right around Tour average,
Last year, Waialae ranked 36th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and outside of the extremely windy 2020, the Raynor design has ranked as one of the five easiest courses to gain strokes on approach on. Waialae is not a difficult approach course, but it it so essential that players excel with their second shot, that iron play cannot be ignored.
Last year, Waialae featured the sixth highest greens in regulation percentage on the PGA Tour, and each of the last 10 years, it has featured some of the easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour. The greens at Waialae are by no means small, and because it is such a short course, players rarely miss greens here because they have a mid to short iron in their hands 85% of the time.
Last year, Waialae ranked 35th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from inside 150 yards, and 35th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards. I guess this proves that even when players are faced with longer iron shots, they rarely face much pushback either.
Last year, the three proximity buckets that ranked above Tour average were 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards, and 175-200 yards. Waialae is definitively a mid iron course. 19.0% of approach shots come from 125-150 yards, 23.9% of approach shots come from 150-175 yards, and 23.2% of approach shots come from 175-200 yards. The range of 125-200 yards makes up a whopping 67.5% of all approach shots at Waialae, and players that excel from this range are sure to have a massive leg up at this tournament. The best long-term players from this range are Russell Henley, Ryan Armour, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun, Tom Hoge, Sam Ryder, Russell Knox, Ryan Moore, and Zac Blair.
Around the Green
Las year, only 9.1% of strokes gained at Waialae came via around the green. Historically, that number ticks up to 12.3%, which is still well below the Tour average of 14.5%. Short game has rarely proven to play much a factor in determining the champion of this tournament.
Last year, Waialae ranked 35th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour to gain strokes around the green on.
Last year, Waialae ranked 34th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 32nd in around the green difficulty from the rough, and the 34th in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. It’s safe to say that Waialae is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour in around the green play.
I have a hard time making any form of argument for weighing short game at Waialae. Not only does it feature the sixth highest greens in regulation percentage on the PGA Tour, but the degree of difficulty on around the green shots at the Raynor design are extremely easy. The bunkers are not deep here, it’s easy to slide wedges through this rough, and the fairways are like chipping off carpet. I’ve seen around the green play been touted on this course because some of the winners here happen to generally have a strong short game. This line of thinking is non-sensical to me.
Putting
Last year, 38.7% of strokes gained came via the putter, which is well above the Tour average of 35.6%. Historically, that number sticks at 38.7%, so Waialae definitely falls into the putting contest zone.
Last year, it ranked 34th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and outside of the windy year in 2020, the Raynor design has been one of the easiest courses to gain strokes putting on on the PGA Tour. I am a massive Seth Raynor fan, and he is known for creating interesting green complexes that provide some colorful undulations. Unfortunately, his original design has largely been lost to time. Tom Doak did the best that he could with a 2017 restoration, but the edges of the greens are still largely squared off due to bunker splashes, and contours that were once menacing in the 1960’s feel nearly obsolete today.
Last year, Waialae ranked 36th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 37th out of putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 22nd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. Wailae is a good example of a course that would feature challenging greens for amateurs, but pros have zero issues, as this is an extremely true and well maintained strain of Bermuda that players tend to love. Still, based on the high greens in regulation percentage and lack of pushback from tee to green, putting tends to really matter at Waialae. We’ve seen time and again non-elite tee to green players find a hot putter and win at this course, and oddly enough, Hideki’s path to victory did not come via elite iron play, it came via the best putting week of his career. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Ben Taylor, Martin Trainer, Adam Long, Brendon Todd, Chesson Hadley, Denny McCarthy, Billy Horschel, Andrew Putnam, and Matt Kuchar.
Scoring Stats
I’m on the record about opportunities gained being potentially the most predictive statistic we have outside of strokes gained approach. On a course where nearly every single hole provides a scoring opportunity, I cannot emphasize the importance of identifying the players that most consistently provide themselves with the most birdie looks inside 15 feet. The players that give themselves the most birdie chances inside 15 feet per round are Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Davis, Kevin Streelman, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Alex Smalley, and Tom Kim. These are 10 names that absolutely must be paid attention to this week, and the most value of the bunch certainly comes with Kevin Streelman.
Of course, providing oneself with opportunities doesn’t show up on the scorecard. Players have to actually make the putts too, and Waialae is a course that can absolutely turn into a track meet in the absence of wind. The players that make the most birdies or better per round are Jordan Spieth, Cameron Davis, Taylor Montgomery, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Kim, Ben Griffin, Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Stephan Jaeger, and Keegan Bradley.
There’s going to be a ton of talk about comp courses this week, and rightfully so. Waialae certainly falls into the bucket of a short, positional golf course, which there are many of on the PGA Tour. Instead of individually plugging Harbour Town, El Camaleon, Sedgefield, Sea Island, Colonial, Austin Country Club, Port Royal, TPC Summerlin, TPC Sawgrass, and likely a few others into a model, I’d rather place a hefty weight on long-term form on courses under 7,200 yards. There is certainly a group of courses on the schedule that the Kevin Kisner’s and Matt Kuchar’s of the world lick their chops for and truly believe that they possess just as strong a chance to win as any. Waialae certainly falls into that bucket. There is little to zero advantage for being a powerful driver of the ball here, and players who lack distance are far from disadvantaged here as well. The players who have had the most success on short courses are Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Harris English, Webb Simpson, Cameron Davis, Si Woo Kim, and Maverick McNealy.
Course History/Comp Course History
For reasons that I still have a difficult time explaining, Waialae actually features the second most predictive course history out of any course on the entire PGA Tour schedule outside of Augusta National. I am a huge fan of Seth Raynor, and have played dozens of his courses. I can certainly vouch for the fact that his designs do feature their fare share of nuance. Still, the fact that only Augusta National features a greater correlation with course history was surprising to me. I can’t argue with the numbers however, as the same players (Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, etc.) seem to show up here year after year regardless of form. I will always argue for recent form over course history, and on most occasions, I will argue for recent form over course fit as well. Still, Waialae is one of the only courses on the entire schedule where course history is enough of an argument to click a name here alone. I generally have a hard time with the concept that players in objectively poor form can show up at a course they love and automatically perform, but that is often the case at Waialae. In 2021, Kevin Na looked downright horrendous at the Tournament of Champions before winning at Waialae. Matt Kuchar looked was nearly as bad at the Tournament of Champions before winning at Waialae. The list goes on. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Webb Simpson, Patton Kizzire, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Chez Reavie, Zach Johnson, Russell Knox, and Stewart Cink.
Model
Off the Tee (10%)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Courses under 7,200 yards (10%)
Approach (32%)
Strokes Gained Approach (13%)
Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (7%)
Around the Green (0%)
Putting (16%)
Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass greens (16%)
Scoring Stats (32%)
Opportunities Gained (12%)
Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Courses under 7,200 yards (10%)
Course History/Comp Course History (10%)
Waialae (10%)
Model Top 20
Hideki Matsuyama
Cameron Davis
Tom Kim
Tom Hoge
Russell Henley
Brian Harman
Sungjae Im
Corey Conners
Emiliano Grillo
Adam Scott
Adam Svensson
Keegan Bradley
Ben Griffin
Si Woo Kim
Alex Smalley
Billy Horschel
J.J. Spaun
Mark Hubbard
Keith Mitchell
Kurt Kitayama
Best of luck this week – AL
