By Andy Lack

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

I would say that the only thing worth paying attention to here is the wind gusts on Friday morning between 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM, when the vast majority of the PM/AM wave is on the course. If you want to give slight edge to those whoa re teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, I certainly wouldn’t fault you. Yet as we saw last week in Phoenix, be careful giving an edge to the AM/PM group, as the course generally always firms up throughout the week, and Friday afternoon players are subjected to the firmest of conditions. Overall, I would give a slight lean to the AM/PM wvae, but I will generally only use it s tie-breaker for players at the bottom.

Core Four: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Justin Thomas, $10,100 (15.8% Projected ownership): While do I believe Justin Thomas is attracting some attention in the betting markets, I will ride with my pick to win for DraftKings purposes as well considering the palatability of his ownership. While the reigning PGA Championship winner remains the number one long-term player in proximity from 150-175, a range where over a quarter of approach shots at Riviera come from, Justin Thomas’ iron play of late hasn’t been up to his usual standards. Yet that is beginning to finally change, as Thomas has now gained over three strokes on approach in back-to-back events for the first time since June. Everything finally seemed to click for him on Sunday in Phoenix, as the World No. 7 gained 2.78 strokes on approach in the final round, good for the best out of anyone in the field. While Thomas has always been known for his iron play, the 15-time PGA Tour winner actually ranks number one out of all players in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over his last 50 rounds. Now he returns to a course where middle iron play and short game are paramount, and it should not come as a surprise that Thomas already boasts two top-six finishes at this course, including a solo second in 2019. Un-coincidentally, my strongest comp course to Riviera is Southern Hills, the site of Thomas’ last victory.

• Sungjae Im, $9,400 (10.9% Projected ownership): As long as Sungjae Im continues to rack up top-six finishes at low ownership, I will continue to write him up. He was in my core four at Farmer’s Insurance Open where he went on to finish fourth at lower ownership than his peers. He was in my core four last week at the WM Phoenix Open where he went on to finish sixth at lower ownership than his peers. I cannot understand for the life of me why people continue to ignore him, as he is bar none one of the 10 most consistent golfers in the world. I wish his course history at Riviera was a bit better, but he did finish top-35 in his most recent appearance, and the two-time PGA Tour winner embodies the exact type of well-rounded skill-set that I am looking for this week. I can’t be the only person on earth continuing to win on money on this guy every single week, but I salute the other 10.9% of you out there.

• Tyrrell Hatton, $8,100 (11.7% Projected ownership): It certainly does feel like Tyrrell Hatton’s sixth-place finish last week at the Phoenix Open, where he gained 4.2 strokes off the tee and six strokes on approach, is going a bit over-looked. I know that he falls in a loaded range with some flashy names, but if Hatton can come even close to replicating his ball-striking performance from last week, he will be one of the biggest steals on the board. Since the PGA Tour season ended with the Tour Championship in late August, Hatton has played nine times, with seven top-25 finishes, and five top-10 finishes, including a solo second at the DP World Tour Championship. He’s gained over 2.5 strokes ball-striking in six straight measured starts, and he’s really starting to get the flat-stick going as well. The grumpy Englishman is percolating right now, and I’m not sure anyone is even paying attention.

• Tommy Fleetwood, $7,300 (9.8% Projected ownership): I almost went with Shane Lowry in this spot to provide him with the opportunity to avenge his destruction of this column last week, as he was the only player in my core four to not finish inside the top-10 in Phoenix. Yet I simply feel that Fleetwood is so much safer. I still took an outright flier on Lowry at 100/1 because I just felt that the price was so disrespectful, but he did objectively look awful last week. If it does so happen that there is something completely wrong with him, I would rather lose the small investment on my outright wager than have him tank a high plurality of my DraftKings lineups. Don’t get me wrong, the hasty Northern Irishman is still in my pool, but my exposure to Fleetwood will be far greater. The Englishman still rates out as one of the strongest values by my metrics, and while I wish the ownership was a touch lower, I can always every so often eat a popular $7K player, as I generally fade the vast majority of chalk. Fleetwood does have some respectable course history, with back-to-back top-40 finishes where he gained over four strokes ball-striking on both occurrences. I expect him to bounce back from a missed cut in Phoenix this week in a big way, and find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles.

Chalk Report: Ownership projections for every range

• $10K: I’ve noticed in these full field events that it’s challenging for any one player to emerge as overwhelmingly popular given the strength of the options at the top of the board, and the form that all of these players carry. I have all four players, Jon Rahm Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas, all coming in between 15 and 22%, with Scheffler on the low end, and McIlroy on the high end. Rory is the only lock to clear 20%, but I would be fairly surprised if he cleared 25%. 22% on the four-time major winner feels just right. After Rory, I have Rahm coming in at 18.8%, and Thomas coming in just above Scheffler at 15.8%. I believe that all options are worthy this week, even Rory

• $9K: The $9K range features only six options this week, and unlike at Phoenix, there are no egregious leverage opportunities ala Matt Fitzpatrick. Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele lead the charge, coming in respectively at 20.1% and 17.8%. Max Homa is honestly creeping right up to Schauffele, and I have him currently coming in at 17.4%. I believe that Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa will be near dead even at around 15.5%, while Sam Burns and Sungjae Im will both fall between 10 and 12%. Burns is getting a nice little price bump this week into the $9K range, and I’m pretty surprised that folks aren’t flocking to Cantlay at an even $9K, the cheapest that he has been since he has been since the 2021 Open Championship.

• $8K: The $8K range present a bevy of options, with Viktor Hovland leading the charge at 17%. Given the course history and the way that he hits as a second man in after a Rory, Rahm, or Scheffler, I understand why he is garnering attention. After Hovland, I have Cameron Young at 11.9%, Will Zalatoris at 9.6%, Jordan Spieth at 14.0%, Tom Kim at 11.4%, Jason Day at 11.2%, Matt Fitzpatrick at 12.7, Hideki Matsuyama at 12.0%, Tyrrell Hatton at 11.7%, Justin Rose at 10.5%, and Adam Scott at 13,9%. That’s ten players between $8.8K and $8.0K that are all between 9.6% and 14%, which is something we see very rarely, but I love the fact that folks are sticking to their guns and playing who they want. A fairly strong case could be made for each of the ten, and none present overly concerning ownership.

• $7K: I’ll admit, there’s a bit more groupthink going on in the $7K range, and Patrick Rodgers and Wyndham Clark chalk simply do not sound like good ideas. Neither are crazy, but I have both coming in comfortably between 10.5 and 15%, along with Taylor Moore. Taylor Montgomery, who has been dropping like a fly down the DraftKings slate after a fairly hot fall swing, is certainly garnering some attention as well. At least he’s right back to where he belongs from a pricing standpoint. The only other golfer that I believe has a solid chance to cross 10% is Tommy Fleetwood, and I feel far more comfortably eating it with him than I do with Rodgers or Wyndham. At least Fleetwood is a good player, and if he bombs, I can find all sorts of justifications in my head. If a 13% Wyndham Clark or Patrick Rodgers bombs, that’s on you buddy. A couple other names that are garnering some attention, but may not cross the 10% threshol,d are Keegan Bradley, Seamus Power, Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman, K.H. Lee, and Alex Noren. Obviously, the best value play on the board is a 2.8% Cameron Davis. Ducks.

• $6K: With no Hayden Buckleys this week to eat up a grand deal of attention, the $6K range is once again a dead zone. I think at elevated events with such star power at the top, fantasy players trend towards a balanced as approach as A.) there are players in the $8K range with real win equity, and B.) the stronger the fielder, the harder it is to envision one of these jibronis being relevant down the stretch on Sunday. I would have some qualms with that strategy, as I do believe there are some viable options down here that could make some noise over the weekend. The only two players with a puncher’s chance to clear 5% are Sam Ryder and Jhonattan Vegas. After that, the only noteworthy names that could be higher owned (always a relative term down here) that players in their price range are Alex Smalley, Luke List, and James Hahn. I actually really prefer Lee Hodges and Ben Taylor at $6,200 and $6,400 respectively. There ya go, #picks!