By Andy Lack

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

I distinctly remember capitalizing on a weather edge at this tournament last year, so do not underestimate the wind factor this week despite the idea that this event usually produces benign conditions. I do believe the morning players on Thursday will experience a bit of an edge, as the wind speed and gusts do increase slightly between 3:00 and 5:00 PM, right as the afternoon players are finishing their rounds. On it’s own, that would certainly not be enough of an edge to influence my decision making process, but let’s take a look at Friday too. While the wind speed is fairly consistent all day, players can expect some fairly aggressive wind gusts in the morning. The morning players tee off between 7:00 and 9:00 AM, where the wind will be gusting from 20 to 22 mph. They will all be on the course for when the gusts kick all the way up to 29 mph at 11:00 AM, which is right before the afternoon players tee off. On Friday, the morning players will be treated to gusts between 20 and 29 mph, while the afternoon players will experience gusts between 17 and 20 mph. I would say this is enough of an edge for me to absolutely favor players from the AM/PM wave. There will absolutely be some players from the PM/AM wave in my pool, but I will have a few lineups that are a full AM/PM stack, and many lineups that feature at least four or five players from the AM/PM wave. In terms of elite players, I think this matters less, and I will be sticking with my guys at the top regardless of their tee times. Yet in terms of the lower priced options, I will actively be seeking out those with a Thursday morning tee time. This is enough of an edge to take a somewhat aggressive stance, but keep in mind that I am fairly comfortable being completely wrong and losing all my money. I never recommend others utilizing a weather advantage because it’s so easy to be wrong. At the end of the day, it’s still the weather, and viable to change in an instant. This is simply the strategy that I am employing this week, but choose your own adventure.

Core Four: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Xander Schauffele, $10,000 (Projected ownership: 19.2%) (AM/PM): Readers may be somewhat confused by the choice of Xander Schauffele over Tony Finau this week, seeing as I have bet Finau outright at +2500, he is coming in at only 12.6% ownership, and he is on the “right” side of the draw. Yet heavy steam in the matchup markets on Xander and against Finau confirms my belief that Xander is the far safer option. In terms of my model, it’s a matter of splitting hairs, as I have Finau as fist overall and Xander at fourth overall. Both have similar win equity, but I do believe that Xander features far higher top-15 equity. While Finau has just one top-20 finish and five missed cuts in seven appearances at TPC Scottsdale, Xander has never finished worse than 17th at this event in six appearances. The San Diego native absolutely dominates with his driver at this track, gaining over four strokes off the tee in three straight appearances here. He’s never lost strokes on approach at TPC Scottsdale either, and he gained over nine strokes ball-striking at this event last year, with an extremely makeable putt to find himself in the playoff with Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay. I have zero concerns about a lingering injury, as he is coming off a rock solid 13th-place finish at the Farmer’s Insurance Open where he gained 1.8 strokes off the tee, four strokes on approach, 0.6 strokes around the green, and 3.8 strokes putting through three rounds at Torrey Pines’ South Course. Xander has done just about everything short of claiming victory at this event, and I have a sneaking suspicion that could change this week.

• Sungjae Im, $9,200 (Projected ownership: 17.4%) (AM/PM): While I do wish the ownership was a tad lower on Sungjae Im, I’m extremely grateful that Tom Kim has completely leapfroggred his Korean brethren in popularity every time they tee it up. I still believe that Sungjae is a more complete player, and he also gets the course history edge as well. First timers find success at this course all the time, but 14 of the last 16 winners have all played this event at least twice, and TPC Scottsdale features the fourth highest course history correlation on the PGA Tour, ranking just behind Augusta National, Bay Hill, and Harbor Town in the predictive nature of prior success. Sungjae already boasts two top-20 finishes in three appearances at the Weiskopf/Morrish design, and he has never gained less than 1.5 strokes ball-striking, nor lost strokes putting in all three starts at TPC Scottsdale. Coming off an extremely quiet fourth-place finish at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, (we wrote him up in this column) where he gained seven strokes on approach and 5.5 strokes putting, I expect the World No. 18 to find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Scottsdale.

• Shane Lowry, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 8.2%) (AM/PM): I was a touch surprised to see the lack of respect on Shane Lowry this week. We are still talking about a player who routinely goes off below 40/1 in most major championships, and he can be found this week as high as 80/1 in the outright betting market. The disrespect is reflected in his DraftKings ownership as well, as I would be shocked if the former Open Championship winner crosses double digits. I’m not quite sure what I am missing here, as my numbers suggest that Lowry is a top-10 option in this field, and he checks nearly every box that I am looking for with flying colors. I know that he is coming off a missed cut, and I know he recently broke up with his caddie, but come on. Will Zalatoris won in his first event with a new caddie on the bag. Scottie Scheffler found immediate success with a new caddie on the bag. Justin Thomas won his first event with Bones as a replacement on his bag as well. The World No. 21 remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, is an elite middle iron player, and has already recorded two top-20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale in three appearances. Yes, he has not played this event since 2018, but this track clearly fits his eye, as the 35-year-old gained 10.8 strokes ball-striking here in 2018. I expect Lowry to pick up right where he left off at TPC Scottsdale, and kick off his season in the U.S. with a bang.

• Adam Hadwin, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 6.5%) (AM/PM): Given his price, course history, and recent form, I expected Adam Hadwin to be far more popular than he is, and I’ll gladly pounce on the Canadian this week at sub 7% ownership. While he has failed to find his name near the very top of the leaderboard, Hadwin has made seven of eight cuts in this event, and the only time he failed to make the weekend was in his very first appearance. There is clearly something about over-seeded Bermuda that just seems to click with the 35-year-old, as outside of his success at TPC Scottsdale, Hadwin has also finished sixth, second, third, and second on over-seeded Bermuda at the American Express. His lone PGA Tour victory came on over-seeded Bermuda at the Valspar Championship, where he also finished seventh last year, and he is also coming off a ninth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship on over-seeded Bermuda where he gained 5.7 strokes putting. If we want to talk about comp courses, no one in this field has gained more strokes per round at TPC Summerlin and TPC Twin Cities than Adam Hadwin! The World No. 75 remains a model of consistency, not just at this tournament, but in general. The well-rounded nature of his game has allowed him to make 12 PGA Tour cuts in a row, dating all the way back to the John Deere Classic. You’ll be hard pressed to find someone as safe in the low $7K range as Hadwin this week, and I’m fairly shocked he can be found at such an appetizingly low ownership number.

Chalk Report: Ownership projections for every range

• $10K: Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm have emerged as the best two players in the world, and their price both in the betting markets and in DraftKings is beginning to reflect that. There is a $500 gap between Rory, and the third highest priced player, Scottie Scheffler. I think the question on most DFS players’ minds will be whether to utilize Rahm or Rory, or to fade them both entirely. Yet the fact that they are so highly priced, coupled with the amount of downright elite players in the $9K range, is translating to extremely palatable numbers on both of the two super-stars. I have Rahm coming in at 17.6%, and Rory even a touch lower at 16.2%. Once we get past the big two, Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Xander Schauffele round out the $10K range. Again, since there are so many appealing options that account for a tremendous amount of win equity in the $9K range, I do not believe that any of the three will clear 20%. Xander will be the highest by a healthy margin at 19.2%, followed by Scheffler at 14.8%, and Finau at 12.6%. My love for Xander has already been made clear this week, but a sub-15% Scheffler and Finau are both extremely alluring options.

• $9K: What a loaded range of talented options! We could be looking at a rare week where there is not a single player on the entire slate that comes in above 20%, as there is a fairly even distribution in popularity this week above $9K. The four most popular players in this range that all have a chance to clear 20% are Collin Morikawa (19.2%), Patrick Cantlay (20.0%), Sungjae Im (17.4%), and Tom Kim (18.9%). There is a bit of a drop off after those big four, but each have their fare share of supporters. Once we get past that group, Max Homa (13.2%), Justin Thomas (11.3%), Hideki Matsuyama (10.8%), and Viktor Hovland (9.5%) should all fall between 9 and 14% this week. It’s quite rare that we ever see an elite player above $9K come in at sub-five percent, but that is what we may have on our hands this week with Matt Fitzpatrick, who I currently have coming in at 5.9%. The reigning U.S. Open champion was brutally honest heading into Pebble Beach last week that he was battling lingering injuries, and it was very apparent that he was not lying to us. Fitzpatrick missed the by cut three in a field where he was arguably the best player, and the only stats that we have from the showing is his round at Pebble Beach, where he lost over four strokes on approach. I’m generally willing to throw anything with Pebble Beach out the window due to the fickle nature of the weather that week, but still, he had no business missing that cut in such a pathetically weak field, and something is clearly off with the World No. 11. With all of this being said, if you have the balls, Fitzpatrick is the true definition of a slate breaker if he can somehow find himself in the mix.

• $8K: Leverage is abound in the $8K range this week as well. The most popular option by a healthy margin appears to be Cameron Young, who I have coming in at 16.2%. After Young, the only two players comfortably in the double digits are Sahith Theegala at 11.7% and Taylor Montgomery at 11.4%. I have Rickie Fowler coming in at an even 10%, but that one could go either way. As we see most weeks, there is a bit a dead zone in the $8K range based on how folks are building. The $9K range is so strong that I could see players trying to jam in as many $9K options as possible before dipping all the way down into the $7K range. Jordan Spieth (6.2%), Sam Burns (9.1%), Tyrrell Hatton (6.7%), Shane Lowry (8.2%), and Tommy Fleetwood (5.3%) all present extremely worthy options. I can guarantee that at least one of those five players will finish top-15 this week. My choice would be Shane Lowry, but each present an interesting case.

• $7K: Once again, I’m proud of how ownership appears to be spread out here. I currently do not have a single player in the $7K range crossing the 15% threshold. The only player who might is Keith Mitchell, who I do have coming in at 14.3%. I played Keith Mitchell last week at 11% en route to a fourth-place finish. it’s not that easy guys, you’re a week late. There is a healthy group of players in the 10% zone that will possess more ownership than many of their peers, but none need to be avoided entirely: Jason Day (13.1%), Corey Conners (11.1%), Keegan Bradley (11.6%), Alex Noren (10.1%), K.H. Lee (11.0%), Tom Hoge (11.0%), Brian Harman (9.3%), J.T. Poston, and Brendan Steele (8.9%). I wouldn’t worry too much about anyone else not mentioned.

• $6K: As is always the case in the $6K range, there is really no one to be worried about down here. I will say that there is one player that I do believe possesses a very small chance to clear double digits, and that is Hayden Buckley. I currently have the 26-year-old coming in at 7.5%, but you never know. This is the point in the season where golf sees a ton of new DraftKings players that are shifting their attention away from football, so it’s certainly plausible that groupthink takes over and Buckley catches even more late steam. I currently have Buckley as the only player in this range coming in above 5%, but here are the other names that will garner a bit more attention compared to their their peers: Davis Riley, Emiliano Grillo, Callum Tarren, Jhonattan Vegas, Matthew NeSmith, Greyson Sigg, and Mark Hubbard.