By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments already last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

There’s not breathe of wind in the forecast for Thursday, which is a bit of a shame, as I was hoping for carnage this week. Still, this is unsurprising. My podcast guest, Coby DuBose, who lives in Houston, had mentioned that the area experiences far more wind during the spring time. The wind does pick up on Friday, and I actually believe one could be talked into a PM/AM stack. On Thursday, there is no discernible difference in conditions for players that tee off in the morning versus players that tee off in the afternoon. Yet on Friday, the little pocket between 3:00 PM and 5:00 does look like a challenge (10 mph wind speed, 14-17 mph guests). The guests are still there in the morning, but wind speed from 7:00 to 1:00 AM is only between 5 and 8 mph. There’s definitely something there. I would strongly advise against eliminating players you like from the AM/PM draw, but if you’re looking for a tiebreaker between players a the bottom, I believe there a chance that the PM/AM side might receiver a quarter to half stroke advantage.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Aaron Wise, $9,900 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 22.0%): Long time readers of this column know that it is extremely rare for me to ever include a player this highly owned in my core four. After listening to my podcast this week, I imagine that many were expecting Hideki in this spot. While Hideki is still firmly entrenched in my pool this week, I have legitimate concerns about some of steam coming against him the matchup markets. I also am avoiding so much ownership below $9K, that I can still easily slot in Wise with pretty much any combination of other players in my pool and still come in with a combined ownership of less than 65%. Here’s the deal with Wise. My model has identified the 26-year-old as far and beyond the best play in the field based on a combination of course fit and recent form. Yes, I have him ahead of Scheffler, Burns, Finau, Hideki, you name it. There are very few times when a player jumps off the page so aggressively from a statistical standpoint that my hands become tied. The last two examples of this (off the top of my head) were Scottie Scheffler at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and Rory McIlroy at the Open Championship. The statistical case for these players was so strong, that the pain I would experience for leaving them off due to ownership became simply too much for me to stomach (and this is coming from an ownership over course fit guy). The Wise play is not some over-reaction to chalk smashing more frequently this past year. I’m holding steady in my belief that ignoring ownership is a long-term losing strategy. However, there are exceptions to this when the statistical case for the player become so strong. By the way, my numbers loved Joel Dahmen last week too, but there’s a fine line. Wise ranks top-25 in this field in overall approach, long-term proximity from 175 yards plus, Bermuda-grass putting, strokes gained total in difficult scoring conditions, strokes gained total on long golf courses, and bogey avoidance. We have finally reached a fall swing course that truly accentuates his elite skill-set. Let’s run through his best finishes: 1st at Trinity Forest (Texas, long, driver heavy), 2nd and 9th at Muirfield Village (driver heavy, long, long-irons, difficult scoring conditions), 2nd and 9th at Quail Hollow (driver heavy, long, long-irons, difficult scoring conditions, Bermuda), 5th Ridgewood (long, difficult scoring conditions), 5th Congaree (driver heavy, long, short-grass everywhere, Bermuda), 5th Summit Club (driver heavy, long, long-irons, short grass), 6th Vidanta Vallarta (driver heavy, long, long irons), 11th Memorial Park (self-explanatory), 17th Bay Hill (driver heavy, long, long irons, Bermuda), and 23rd at Southern Hills (long, short-grass everywhere, difficult and heavily contoured green complexes); the list goes on. Wise should be brimming with confidence coming off a Sunday 64 at the Mayakoba, and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he his not at least in the mix on Sunday.

• Jason Day, $9,500 (Projected ownership: 12.5%): I was a pretty big Jason Day fan when he was at the peak of his powers in 2015-2016, but I’ve pretty much avoided him like the plague over the last two years. I even had some serious trepidations last week despite the fact that he had gained strokes on approach in seven straight starts heading into the Mayakoba. The 12-time PGA Tour winner’s play this fall swing has been extremely impressive, even more-so when considering the fact that none of these courses were particuarly great fits for his game. The one aspect of Day’s game that has stayed consistent through all of his poor play and injuries has been short game, and he finally now travels to a course where being in elite in this area should provide him with a massive advantage. When Day was at his peak, he was winning at courses such as TPC Las Colinas, Dove Mountain, Torrey Pines (2x), Conway Farms, Whistling Straits, Plainfield, Bay Hill, and Quail Hollow. These are all long courses, and many of them are difficult. Day still packs more than enough punch off the tee to a be a threat at this type of spot, and it should not come as a surprise that he already has a seventh place finish to his name at Memorial Park. Since his last career win in 2018, there have been small runs of excellence where he would put together three top-25 finishes in a row, before fading back into oblivion. Right now is the best golf he’s been played in years, and it would not surprise me if he picked one off here. We may put him back on injured reserve until Torrey Pines, but if there’s any belief that the former World No. 1 still has something left in the tank, this is the golf course to roll him out on.

• Aaron Rai, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 4.9%): Don’t get me wrong, the missed cut last week disappointed the hell of out me too, but early ownership projections reflect that people are just done with Aaron Rai. I would hang on for one more week, as the multiple time DP World Tour winner is now returning to a golf course that he gained over eight strokes ball-striking at last year. The jury is still out on what course Rai is best suited for, but it is worth nothing that his career best PGA Tour finish did come at Torrey Pines. Rai has a pretty well rounded game, and he is by no means a bomber off the tee, but some of his best PGA Tour finishes have come at the FedEx St. Judes (12th, 26th), 19th (Houston Open), Open Championship (19th), the Mexico Open (24th), the Memorial (26th), all longer golf courses where he has been able to separate himself due to his elite long iron play. That’s right, Aaron Rai is the number one player in this field in long iron proximity over a year plus sample size. On course where over 25% of approach shots come from over 200 yards, I expect this skill to really come in handy this week. Coming off back-to-back disappointing performances at the Bermuda and Mayakoba, this is the perfect time to buy on a player who now finally gets a course that can highlight his skill.

• Kevin Streelman, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 1.4%): There’s always one player in the low $7K range that finishes top-five, and hopefully we can ride some Will Gordon magic and extend an endorsement by the way of a former Duke Blue Devil. I was pretty surprised to see how well that Kevin Streelman rated out for me, but he continues to deliver results and play weakness free golf. The 44-year-old is actually one of the better mid to long iron players in this entire field, possesses a rock solid short game, an impressive track record on Bermuda, and somehow ranks 11th in strokes gained total on long golf courses and 6th in difficult scoring conditions. I very much needed to be reminded of the fact that he’s finished 3rd at Torrey Pines, 4th, 6th, and 6th at Muirfield Village, 6th at Quail Hollow, 7th at Bay Hill, and 8th at Kiawah Island. A 41st at Southern Hills where he gained 1 stroke off the tee and 1.8 strokes off the tee is also encouraging. Coming off a missed cut at the Mayakoba, we have little to worry about regarding ownership. I would go as far to suggest that this is actually a better golf course for him than all of the previous stops this fall swing. Streelman knows how to work his way around a thinking man’s golf course with trouble at every turn. While we were absolutely on the money last week with Scottie Scheffler (2nd) and Brian Harman (3rd) at the top, I owe readers a better performance at the bottom (thank god C.T. Pan already withdrew this week). Streelman would be my sub-five percent pick to break the slate.

Chalk Report: Ownership break-down for every range.

• $10K: I spoke on the podcast earlier this week that this felt like a 23-25% Scottie Scheffler week, with the possibility that he could catch some late steam. $11,500 is just a hefty price, and jamming in Scottie makes it challenging to play any of the other elite players. As I write this on Wednesday morning, I now feel pretty comfortable suggesting that Scheffler will clear 30%. There’s a chance he comes in much higher than that in higher stakes, but even so, this surprises me. Yes, he was unbelievable at the Mayakoba last week, and we were all over him. Yet this is a weighty price increase any way you slice it. Not weighty enough, apparently. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Scottie Scheffler. Trust me though, there will be opportunities to get an under-owned Scheffler. It happens all the time. This is not one of those weeks. After Scheffler, I have Burns and Finau both somewhere between 15 and 20 percent. These are both manageable numbers, although one of them crossing 20 would not surprise me. As expected, Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley will both go under-owned. I have Hideki coming in between 9 and 13%, and Henley even a touch lower.

• $9K: Aaron Wise is the overwhelming chalk in this range. He’s probably the first guy that can realistically fit into Scheffler lineups, and he will also be a popular first man in. I have him coming in somewhere between 19 and 24%, trailing Scheffler significantly, but still, the second most popular player on the slate. Right below Wise are three players (Taylor Montgomery, Jason Day, and Maverick McNealy) that I have a difficult time gage. My belief is that all three of them will fall between 11 and 16%. There are definitely reasons reasons to play both Day and Montgomery, but I struggle to understand the McNealy love at that price. The bottom of the $9K range is ripe with opportunity. I’m not sure that Sahith Theegala, Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, or Joel Dahmen crack double digits. This is surprising given that now we are getting into territory where any of those four players can work as a second man in, but the general sentiment appears that every single one of them is over-priced. Denny and Dahmen are unquestionably over-priced. Denny is always over-priced, and a $1,800 price increase for Dahmen based on a third-place finish at the Mayakoba is simply irresponsible. I actually think that Grillo and Sahith are right where they should be though. My model continues to hate Sahith for some reason, and my only concern with Grillo is that he has been playing a lot of golf recently. This is his 6th start in 7th weeks, but who knows, he showed no signs of slowing down over the weekend at the Mayakoba with a Sunday 65.

• $8K: I mention every single week how there is a dead zone in the $8K range, and this week is no different. The popular options in this range are Matthew NeSmith, Taylor Pendrith, and to a lesser degree, Davis Riley. I have Pendrith and NeSmith in the 12-15% range, and Riley in the 10-13% range. After that, there are seven (!!) players in this range in the single digits. I’ll run through quick projections on all of them in order of descending salary: Si Woo Kim (4.7%), Alex Noren (3.8%), Andrew Putnam (6.2%), Adam Hadwin (6.5%), Sebastian Munoz (8.3%), Keith Mitchell (7.0%), and Taylor Moore (7.9%). You would be foolish to not take a chance on at least one of these players. I currently have three of the seven in my player pool, and I might be looking to add another by the end of the day.

• $7K: The positive news is that it does not appear that we will have any disgusting chalk, ala Joel Dahmen, this week. There are definitely some players to be concerned about however. The Dean Burmester thing is beginning to get out of control, and over 15% on him would not surprise me. After that, my other picks to clear double digits would be Patrick Rodgers, Mackenzie Hughes, Will Gordon, and Lee Hodges. You guys were a week late on Will Gordon. It’s not that easy. I have Rodgers in the low double digits and it makes complete sense to me given the recent form. I certainly endorse a Rodgers play, as I think this is a sneaky good course fit. I have far less sympathetic views on Mackenzie Hughes and Lee Hodges. Both are fairly priced, but that’s too much ownership. There are a number of candidates in the low 7K range that are garnering some buzz and have the potential to clear double digits: Adam Long, Justin Lower, Sepp Straka, Davis Thompson, Mark Hubbard, Gary Woodland, and maybe Luke List. Do not be deterred if you like any of these players, but consider the fact that you will also be able to find options near them with half the ownership

• $6K: On a week where an $11,500 Scottie Scheffler is going to clear 30%, I’m surprised that there are not more popular options in the $6K range. I’m really proud of the industry for finally veering away from $6K chalk. There is very rarely a player in this range that hits double digits, and this week is no different. Here are the players that will garner more ownership than their peers: Ben Griffin, Scott Piercy, and Joseph Bramlett. Those three players should clear 5%, but anything over 8% would surprise me. Choose your own adventure down here!