By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Albany Golf Course
• Location: Nassau, Bahamas
• Designer: Ernie Els (2010)
• Length: Par 72; 7,414 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
• Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass
• Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass measuring 1.5”
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass

 

The Hero World Challenge is a golf tournament officially recognized by the OWGR and hosted by Tiger Woods. It features a field (capped at 20) of generally, the best players in the world. The tournament benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation, and while it is co-affiliated with the PGA Tour, the event does not offer FedEx Cup points or official prize money. The Hero World Challenge has undergone some structural changes over the last two decades, also hopping around to various locations and running through multiple title sponsors. In 2008, the field was increased to 18 players, consisting of the most recent winners of the four major PGA tournaments, the top-11 players in the OWGR, the defending champion, and four sponsor exemptions chosen by the Tiger Woods Foundation. Since 2001, the tournament has been contested in January, and from that point until 2013, was held at Sherwood Country Club, a Jack Nicklaus design in Thousand Oaks, California. From 2008 to 2011, Chevron was the title sponsor. In 2012, Northwestern Mutual took over presenting duties. From 2014 on, Hero Motorcorp has been the title sponsor, and from 2015 on, the event has been held at Albany Golf Course in Nassau, Bahamas. Here’s how the event has played out since moving to its current location.

Event History

• 2021: Viktor Hovland (-18) over Scottie Scheffler (-17)
• 2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic 
• 2019: Henrik Stenson (-18) over Jon Rahm (-17)
• 2018: Jon Rahm (-20) over Tony Finau (-16)
• 2017: Rickie Fowler (-18) over Charley Hoffman (-14)
• 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-18) over Henrik Stenson (-16)
• 2015: Bubba Watson (-25) over Patrick Reed (-22)

 

For the same reasons I do not model LIV events, I struggle to find value in going through my entire regular process for an event with such a small field, no strokes gained data, and one where motivation can be called into question. I received word last year from someone inside the Spieth camp that the three-time major winner embarked on a few really boozy dinners after a slow round one. Spieth went on to finish in dead-last by five strokes. He was 12 strokes worse than the player who finished 18th out of 20 players. I am not mentioning this to suggest that players don’t care. Most players do care, especially those that want to impress Tiger. Whether it’s an exhibition, an unofficial event, a five dollar Nassau, or the Masters, the vast majority of top golfers are geared to compete, as only the top .000001% in competitive drive are even able to get to the position of those who are in the field this week. I am simply bringing up this Spieth tidbit to suggest that we should not be surprised if a few players free fall if they have bad early round. This is one of the more social events of the entire schedule, and I have been told that not all players follow their normal tournament routine this week. It’s more likely that players will use this opportunity to host heavily boozed-up dinners with their friends before putting the clubs away for the Holidays. Still, I do want to point out some tidbits and opinions on the golf course, for those inclined to bet and play DFS this week.

I do believe that this is an extremely watchable event on a fun (?) golf course. The main caveat to that sentence is the wind. Usually at this event, players are treated to relatively benign conditions with the occasional pocket of swirling winds. Last year, the wind came on Sunday and we experienced multiple ejections (R.I.P. Collin Morikawa and Sam Burns) and a relatively entertaining Sunday for a tournament that does not breed the most competitive environment. The Ernie Els design features wide fairways, barely any rough, and a fair amount of sandy waste areas. Players will be forced to chip off of firm Bermuda, and Els did a nice job with some of the green complexes and collection areas. When it gets windy, the course can really firm up, and there’s enough trouble with the tight lies and sandy waste areas where players will have to answer questions that they can normally avoid at most run of the mill PGA Tour birdie-fests. Still, there’s a reason why the winner has needed to get to 18-under par in all five editions of this event since moving to Albany. I would encourage bettors and DFS players to take a peak at the weather this week leading into the tournament. Island courses are generally susceptible to wind, and often designed in a way that without wind, they truly fall short in providing any meaningful defense of par. There’s no need for me to do a whole thing on Ernie Els’ limitations as an architect, but what conditions players experience is going to play massive role in determining the outcome of this tournament.

While Albany shows an extremely low correlation between course history and success, here are the results of all the players in the field this week, ranked by their True SG number at Albany. I wouldn’t get too caught up in course history, as we’ve already seen both Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm win on their first appearance at Albany. Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, and Collin Morikawa were all right in the mix last year as first timers. It helps to know where to hit it, but this golf course lacks nuance. Albany is all out in front of you. What you see is what you get.

Course History 

1. Jon Rahm (+3.83 True SG)
   1. 1st (2019), 2nd (2020)
2. Viktor Hovland (+3.12 True SG)
   1. 1st (2022)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+2.87 True SG)
   1. 2nd (2022)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+2.81 True SG)
   1. T3 (2018)
5. Sam Burns (+2.37 True SG)
   1. T3 (2022)
6. Collin Morikawa (+2.12 True SG)
   1. T5 (2022)
7. Tony Finau (+2.01 True SG)
   1. 2nd (2019), T10 (2020), T7 (2022)
8. Justin Thomas (+1.83 True SG)
   1. 11th (2018), T12 (2019), T5 (2020), T5 (2022)
9. Xander Schauffele (+1.34 True SG)
   1. T8 (2019), T10 (2020), T12 (2022)
10. Kevin Kisner (+1.15 True SG)
    1. T12 (2018), T7 (2020)
11. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.12 True SG)
    1. T12 (2022)
12. Tiger Woods (+1.03 True SG)
    1. 15th (2017), T9 (2018), 17 (2019), 4th (2020)
13. Jordan Spieth (+0.81 True SG)
    1. 4th (2016), T6 (2017), T3 (2018), 16th (2020), 20th (2022)
14. Corey Conners
    1. First appearance
15. Sungjae Im
    1. First appearance
16. Max Homa
    1. First appearance
17. Tom Kim
    1. First appearance
18. Cameron Young
    1. First appearance
19. Shane Lowry
    1. First appearance
20. Billy Horschel (-0.76 True SG)
    1. 16th (2016)

 

Comp Courses 

On the other hand, Albany does remind me of multiple courses that might help us identify players who are primed for this style of golf. Let’s run through a few others courses that may be predictive of success at Albany.

• In terms of longer, driver heavy, island golf courses, Vidanta Vallarta, host of last year’s Mexico Open, certainly fits the bill. The biggest difference I would call to attention is the agronomy, as Vidanta Vallarta features a slow and sticky Paspalum, whereas Albany plays firmer and faster due to the TifEagle Bermuda. I would say that putting and short game matter a bit less at a course like Vidanta Vallarta, but in terms of an island course that essentially only asks players to keep the ball in play and strike a few long irons well, you’d be hard pressed to find a better comp than Vidanta. The only two players in this field to have played in the Mexico Open were Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, who respectfully finished first and second at Vidanta. I do not believe it to be a coincidence that both have experienced loads of success at Albany as well.
• Congaree (host of the 2022 CJ Cup and 2021 Palmetto) is another, long golf course with expansive fairways, sandy waste areas in the absence of rough, and interesting green complexes with a great deal of collection areas. Once again, Jon Rahm found his name near the top of the leaderboard, providing further evidence that he deserves attention under these playing conditions. Tommy Fleetwood finished third in his only appearance at Albany, and fourth at this year’s CJ Cup. Sam Burns, who contended in Albany last year, finished in a tie for seventh with Bermuda savant, Billy Horschel. I was also encouraged to see Tom Kim finish 11th at this event. Matt Fitzpatrick also deserves mention for finishing 13th at the 2022 CJ Cup, and 10th at the 2021 Palmetto Championship. On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Kisner finished 72nd in a field of 77. Spieth also finished outside of the top-50.
• Port Royal is another island golf course with similar agronomy. Despite being a fair amount shorter than Albany, I would not categorize the host of the Bermuda Championship as a short, positional golf course. Players have the ability to pull driver often at Port Royal, and its actually a course that has lended itself nicely to bombers over the years as well. Port Royal also most accurately displays what we could see this week at Albany in terms of wind. In calm conditions, both courses are a walk in the park that will yield birdies in bunches. If the wind picks up however, expect some carnage. Unfortunately, the only two players in this field that have ever played the Bermuda Championship are Max Homa (34th in 2020) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (30th in 2021), so it fails to provide a ton of insight as a comp course.
• The Concession, host of the 2021 WGC- Workday also has my attention as a longer, Bermuda golf course with tricky greenside surrounds. The Concession features a bit more trouble off the tee than Albany, but in terms of collection area recovery shots off of firm Bermuda, look no further than the Jack Nicklaus design. It should not come as a surprise that the winner of the 2021 WGC – Workday, Collin Morikawa, was fully in charge of Albany until disaster struck Sunday on the back nine. The eventual winner, Viktor Hovland, finished runner-up at the Concession. Scottie Scheffler also finished top-five at both Albany and the Concession. While Billy Horschel has yet to find much success at Albany, his runner-up finish at the Concession might provide an inkling of hope. On the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Kisner, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry all finished outside of the top-40 at the Concession. Not ideal
• Finally, all three of the host courses (The Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course) of the American Express come to mind as reasonable comps. The biggest difference is that all three of the American Express courses are a bit shorter and less wind affected than what we could see at Albany this week. Still, the American Express courses are all Bermuda tracks that are all out in front of you, where the main objective is simply to keep the ball in play off the tee. Unsurprisingly, this is another event that Jon Rahm has won. Sungjae Im is another notable name that has failed to finish worse than 12th in four starts at the American Express. Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler also boast top-five finishes at both the Hero and the American Express. If we experience benign conditions, these courses actually have the most in common with Albany from a design standpoint.

 

Key Stats

After taking in all the information on the course, here are four key statistics that deserve attention this week.

• I’ve already mentioned how the one thing that the players cannot do is drive waywardly into the sandy waste areas. The landing zones are still fairly wide at Albany, so elite driving accuracy is far from required. Instead, Good Drive Percentage is a statistic that can help us identify players that are devoid of the big miss. This is an asset for Collin Morikawa, Xander Schaufelle, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Corey Conners. This is a detriment to Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, and Jordan Spieth.
• While an easy course, Albany features very small greens with very troublesome collection areas. I would still expect the course feature a relatively high greens in regulation percentage under benign conditions. Still, players are inevitably going to miss these small targets on occasion, especially if the wind kicks up. Sam Burns’ short-game lost the tournament for him. I apologize in advance for the nightmare fuel. Chipping off tight Bermuda is also a singular skill, so I wanted to identify the players who have been best Around the green on Bermuda courses over the last two years. This is an asset for Tommy Fleetwood, Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Sungjae Im. This is a detriment for Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, and Corey Conners. 
• Bermuda-grass putting will also be essential, as I’m not convinced that Albany provides a ton of separation from tee to green unless the wind really gets going. The best Bermuda-grass putters over the last two years have been Kevin Kisner, Sam Burns, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Billy Horschel, and Tommy Fleetwood. On the other hand, Bermuda-grass putting has been a detriment for Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Corey Conners. 
• I’ve spent some time outlining why a few comp courses can really help us identify the players to look out for in an event that we have very limited data from. The best players across the aforementioned comp courses (including Albany) have been Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland. The players who have struggled the most at the comp courses have been Kevin Kisner, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, and Billy Horschel. 

 

Best of luck this week – AL