By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Colonial Country Club
• Location: Fort Worth, Texas
• Designer: Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus (1936)
• Length: Par 70; 7,209 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on six holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass, measuring 27 yards wide on average
• Rough: Three inch Bermuda-grass
• Greens: A4 Bent-grass, measuring 5,000 square feet on average; 12 feet on the stimp.

 

For the second week in a row, golf fans will be treated to the fantastic work of Perry Maxwell. Many of the players competing in Tulsa last week will be heading south to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, a staple on the PGA Tour for the last 50 plus years. Colonial is an old school, tree-lined classical golf course with winding doglegs and small Bent-grass greens. Despite measuring just a hair over 7,200 yards, the Maxwell design has stood the test of time. Last year, it played as the 13th most difficult course on Tour, and each of the last seven years, it has played harder than Tour average. In 2019, with firmer and windier conditions, it played as the sixth hardest course on Tour. In 2017 under similar conditions, it played as the fifth most challenging. Like all courses in Texas, the amount of wind and rainfall will ultimately dictate how challenging this course ends up playing, but Colonial is always a safe bet to challenge players from tee to green.

The course gets off to an interesting start. The first and second holes have historically played as the two easiest holes on the golf course. It’s imperative to take advantage of the hand-shake opener, as holes three through five have been dubbed, “The Horrible Horseshoe.” The third, fourth, and fifth holes make up three of the four hardest holes on the golf course.

Overall, Colonial is characterized by a challenging set of par threes that are all longer than 190 yards and all have historically played over par. The third hole measures nearly 250 yards and has ranked as the third hardest hole on the golf course. It will be essential for players to minimize damage on this difficult set of one-shooters. Par five scoring will not come much into play here, as the first hole is an extremely easy par five, but the 11th, the only other par five on the course, is a true three shot hole. Many of the par fours are gettable, and nine of them measure below 450 yards on the scorecard. The third, fifth, and 14th are the only par fours on the course that typically require an approach shot with more than a short to middle iron.

Ultimately, Colonial still provides a challenging tee to green test due to its narrow fairways, tricky Bermuda rough, and minuscule putting surfaces. It is not a putting contest, nor a tournament generally won by a long shot. Each of the last 10 years, the winner has been 100/1 or lower. Favorites have fared quite well in this tournament as well. Four of the last 10 years, the winner has been 20/1 or lower. Jordan Spieth almost made it five last year, had he not faltered to Jason Kokrak down the stretch.

Lastly, I want to raise once again that Perry Maxwell courses tend to favor drawers of the golf ball. Here’s a quote from Kevin Na, “It’s a well designed golf course. You got to hit a lot of draws off the tee. Just some of the way the holes sit, I like it. There are a few cut holes. I can cut it when I need to. Mostly I think my draws work out here.” Chris Kirk also echoed this sentiment, “It’s been a course that’s suited guys who hit the right to left over the years. Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, Steve Stricker, some other guys like that, and I definitely fit in that category.” In terms of commonalities between Southern Hills, an element of creativity at Colonial is required as well. Kirk went on to say, “The course appeals to more of a feel player. If you can flight your shots and work the ball with the wind here and there, you’re going to have a big advantage out here because there’s a ton of cross-winds that you’ll play in on this course. So yeah, I would think that a feel player and being able to judge those distances and judge that wind just right is crucial here.”

Let’s dig into the numbers to really hone down on what we should be looking for in players in this week.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 15.2% of strokes gained at Colonial have come off the tee, which is exactly Tour average.
  • Colonial ranked second out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top-eight in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Over a large sample size, Colonial has proven to be one of the hardest driving courses on the entire PGA Tour 
  • Last year, Colonial had the fifth lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour, and it always ranks inside the top half in lowest driving distance. Outside of the Jason Kokrak, none of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the Top-10 that week in driving distance. Typically, Colonial is a course where players choose to club down off the tee. 
  • Despite not being a driver heavy course, Colonial has the ninth lowest driving accuracy percentage last year. Colonial has had a historical driving accuracy percentage of 57% compared to the Tour average of 62%. It has the third most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, and it always ranks below average in driving accuracy percentage. 
  • Last year, Colonial ranked seventh out of 40 courses in average difference of score between fairway drives and rough drives, and it has ranked inside the top-14 in that category each of the past seven years. With that being said, there is not a ton of trouble on this golf course. Colonial ranked only 34th out of 40 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Similar to Southern Hills, the Maxwell design is more a death by a thousand paper cuts course. With the tree-lined fairways, wayward drives will often be blocked out by tree limbs.
  • Many players have spoken over the years about the importance of hitting fairways at Colonial. Distance doesn’t seem to be a huge advantage here, and the rough is just thick enough to make players think twice off the tee about club selection. Here’s a quote from Kevin Kisner, “Most important thing about playing well around here is getting the ball in the fairway, because you just can’t get to the small greens out of the rough. You get so blocked out with the trees if you’re in the rough that you have to hit so many run-up shots that you’re just not going to hit the greens with.
  • Justin Rose echoed this sentiment, “I think the rough is tough enough around here that if you catch a bad lie, it’s hard to get to the green. If you have a decent lie, huge fliers are in play around here.” The most accurate drivers of the ball over the last year have been Brian Stuard, Chez Reavie, Brendon Todd, Russell Knox, Abraham Ancer, Tyler Duncan, Kevin Streelman, Joel Dahmen, Aaron Rai, and Hayden Buckley. 
  • Last year’s champion, Jason Kokrak, led the field in strokes gained off the tee by over a stroke and a half. By no means did he “bomb and gauge” this course, but he still took a far more aggressive approach than many of Colonial’s past champions. Kokrak took driver far more than the average player, and his mix his length and accuracy proved to be deadly. Colonial is the type of course where it’s still easy to miss fairways while clubbing down off the tee. Kokrak still hit a bunch of fairways, but was left with wedge shots even when he missed. He led the field in good drive percentage last year, which measures drives that result in a green in regulation. This will be an essential stat in helping us determine players who can avoid trouble off the tee. 19 of the Top-20 on last year’s leaderboard gained relative to the field in good drive percentage. The best players in good drive percentage over the last year have been Russell Knox, Brian Stuard, Joel Dahmen, Aaron Rai, Alex Smalley, Viktor Hovland, Matthew NeSmith, Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, and Sungjae Im. 
  • Justin Rose did an excellent job of describing the decision making required off the tee at Colonial, “Every hole tempts you to hit driver in a way, you know. Every hole is just wide enough to hit driver, but it’s narrow enough if you miss it, you’re going to have some type of challenge. The fairway bunkers are so good here you can almost challenge them and feel like if you’re in them, it’s not such a penalty because they play firm. You don’t get many balls that sit down in these bunkers. I think that’s why guys tend to be aggressive. It’s the type of rough here where you can catch a lot of fliers and the greens are small and tricky. So catching fliers into these greens, you’ll make a lot of bogeys.”
  • Ultimately, I have a pretty heavy emphasis on an amalgamation of driving accuracy stats this week. It’s imperative to play from the fairway at Colonial, and those who choose to go with a more aggressive approach better be accurate.

 

• Approach
  • 39% of strokes gained at Colonial have come on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Last year, Colonial ranked 17th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. It always ranks in the top half in strokes gained approach difficulty. In 2019, it ranked eighth out of 35 courses, and in 2017, it ranked seventh out of 37 courses.
  • Colonial had the 14th most challenging greens to hit in regulation last year, with a historical greens in regulation percentage of just 63%, compared to the Tour average of 66%.
  • Colonial ranked 11th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty inside 150 yards, fifth out 35 in 2019, and fifth out of 37 in 2017. It has proven to be one of the more difficult courses to get wedges close on the PGA Tour. 
  • 20.6% of approach shots at Colonial have come from 125-150 yards, which is healthily above the Tour average of 17%.
  • 24.7% of approach shots at Colonial have come from 150-175 yards, which is also well above the Tour average of 20.3%.
  • 17.5% of approach shots at Colonial have come from 175-200 yards, which is right around Tour average.
  • Overall, close to two thirds of all approach shots at Colonial have come from between 125-200 yards. Colonial is definitively a short to middle iron course, with nine of the par fours measuring between 385 yards and 445 yards.
  • Positioning off the tee is incredibly important at Colonial, but it is generally a tournament that is won with elite short to middle iron play. The best long-term short iron players in this field have been Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Knox, Erik Van Rooyen, and Scottie Scheffler. 

 

• Around the Green
  • 10.7% of strokes gained at Colonial have come around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Colonial ranked 33rd out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty last year. Each of the last seven years, it has ranked below average in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
  • Colonial ranked 25th out of 40 courses last year in up and down percentage from the fairway, and it has historically ranked middle of the pack in this category.
  • Colonial ranked 37th out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the bunkers, and it has historically ranked inside the Top-10 in this stat category. Colonial features some of the least penal green-side bunkers on the PGA Tour. 
  • I do not believe that the degree of difficulty of around the green shots at Colonial is very high, but due to the lower than average greens in regulation percentage, players will still be required to have some semblance of a short game here. Still, players can certainly get away being below average in this skillset. Jason Kokrak won this tournament last year losing two strokes around the green. In fact, 17 of the top 30 players on last year’s leaderboard lost strokes around the green. Contrast that with the fact that only five of the top 30 players lost strokes on approach.
  • The prior year, Kevin Na won the tournament while losing strokes around the greens, and Tony Finau finished second while losing strokes around the greens. Ultimately, I will be under-weight on short game statistics this week.

 

• Putting
  • 35.1% of strokes gained at Colonial have come putting, which is right around Tour average.
  • Colonial ranked 30th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained difficulty putting. Each of the last seven years, it has ranked middle of the pack to on the easier side in this stat category.
  • Colonial has ranked 33rd out of 40 courses in putting inside five feet, and 36th out of 40 courses in putting from five to 15 feet. It is extremely easy to hole putts on these pure Bent-grass greens. 
  • Players will not have to rely much on lag putting here either due to the size of the greens. Players who hit the green will not have much more than a 25 foot birdie putt. Compared to the subtle, internal breaks that we saw last week with Southern Hills, Colonial features relatively benign putting surfaces for Maxwell standards.
  • Colonial is far too challenging of a course from tee to green to be categorized as a putting contest, and the degree of difficulty of putting here is on the easier side. A familiarity with Bent-grass greens is certainly what I care most about at Colonial. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Brendon Todd, Harris English, Brandt Snedeker, Jason Kokrak, Beau Hossler, Cameron Tringale, Ian Poulter, Troy Merritt, Abraham Ancer, and Bryson DeChambeau. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • In terms of difficulty, Colonial is neither a birdie fest, nor a grind-fest either. It’s a standard PGA Tour set-up that will challenge players regardless of conditions. The winning score is likely to fall somewhere between 10 and 20 under depending on the firmness of the turf and the wind. I don’t see a ton of value here in looking at birdies or better gained, bogey avoidance, or strokes gained total in easy or difficult scoring conditions.
  • Colonial typically ranks inside the top 15 in toughest birdie average, so it will be important to identify players who can maximize their chances here. Opportunities gained measures the amount of birdie looks that players give themselves relative to the field inside 15 feet. The players in this field that give themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet over the last year have been Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tom Hoge, Bryson DeChambeau, Mito Pereira, Chad Ramey, Aaron Rai, Austin Smotherman, and Talor Gooch. 

 

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • Colonial has the ninth stickiest course history on the PGA Tour. It is certainly a nuanced course where experience is valuable. We tend to see the same players pop up here year after year. The best players at Colonial have been Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Collin Morikawa, Harris English, and Emiliano Grillo
  • Harbour Town is another, short, positional golf course that places an emphasis on driving accuracy and middle to short iron play. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Ian Poulter, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Cameron Davis, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer and Erik Van Rooyen. 
  • Waialae also checks the box of a club-down course where positioning off the tee is crucial, short to middle iron play is essential, and the amount of wind generally determines how difficult the course will play. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Daniel Berger, Patton Kizzire, Chez Reavie, Zach Johnson, Collin Morikawa, and Russell Knox. 
  • TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, Sea Island, and even Innisbrook also fit this general mold. The biggest difference between these and Colonial is that all of the aforementioned courses feature Bermuda-grass greens.
  • I could name many other courses that are tertiary comps to Colonial, but instead I chose to blanket all courses under par 70 courses under 7,200 yards into their own category, and attempt to identify the players that improve their baseline on these style of track. These are all typically club-down courses that de-emphasize par five scoring and feature approach shots into smaller greens from similar proximity buckets. The long-term players on par 70 courses under 7,200 yards have been Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Daniel Berger, Harris English, and Justin Rose. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (20%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (7%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
  • Fairways Gained (5%)
• Approach (35%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 (7%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 (3%)
• Around the Green (6%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (6%)
• Putting (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (12%)
• Scoring Stats (6%)
  • Opportunities Gained (6%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (21%)
  • Colonial (8%)
  • Harbour Town (3%)
  • Waialae (3%)
  • Par 70 Courses under 7,200 yards (7%)

 

Top 20 

1. Daniel Berger
2. Justin Thomas
3. Kevin Na
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Tony Finau
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Webb Simpson
9. Jordan Spieth
10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
11. Chris Kirk
12. Tom Hoge
13. Russell Knox
14. Scottie Scheffler
15. Brian Harman
16. Mito Pereira
17. Abraham Ancer
18. Talor Gooch
19. Joel Dahmen
20. Harold Varner III

 

Most over-valued based on expected price: Scottie Scheffler (14th), Sam Burns (21st), Max Homa (38th), Will Zalatoris (41st), Sungjae Im (43rd), Tommy Fleetwood (62nd), Davis Riley (93rd), Patrick Reed (98th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Kevin Na (3rd), Sebastian Munoz (7th), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (10th), Chris Kirk (11th), Tom Hoge (12th), Russell Knox (13th), Brian Harman (15th), Luke Donald (23rd)