By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Detroit Golf Club
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• Designer: Donald Ross (1916)
• Length: Par 72; 7,370 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole
• Fairways: Bent-grass with Poa Annua measuring 34 yards wide
• Rough: Blue-grass mix (4 inches)
• Greens: 5,150 square feet with Poa Annua and Bent-grass, running 10.5 on the stimp

The Rocket Mortgage Classic was first held in 2019 at Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan. The tournament replaced the Quicken Loans National on the schedule. Here’s how it’s played out the last three years:

• 2021: Cameron Davis (-18) over Troy Merritt, Joaquin Niemann (-18) (Playoff)
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23) over Matthew Wolff (-20)
• 2019: Nate Lashley (-25) over Doc Redman (-19)

The tournament course features 17 holes from the North course and one hole from the South course. Both courses on the property are original Donald Ross designs. Ross is one of the most celebrated architects ever, and he is most remembered for his ability to use the natural ground contours and his infamous “turtleback” greens. This “turtleback” feature, where the greens slope from back to front and fall of on all sides is far more pronounced at a course such as Pinehurst No. 2. The green complexes at Detroit Golf Club are far more undulating and provocative than our average PGA Tour course, but  it does not play firm or fast enough for us to get the full extent of the Ross experience. The other Donald Ross courses that we see regularly on the schedule are Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, and East Lake, host of the Tour Championship, which I will delve deeper into in the comparative courses section.

In essence, Detroit Golf Club is our standard classical, tree-lined, bent-grass birdie-fest, like we have grown accustomed to in the waning weeks of summer. Detroit is definitely a more interesting golf course from a strategic design standpoint than TPC Twin Cities or TPC Deere Run, yet unfortunately, it is never set up in a manner that is really going to challenge players at the highest level. Each of the last three years, we have seen extremely receptive greens featuring an 80% – 20% Poa/Bent split. They are very similar to TPC River Highlands, and certainly play more like Bent-grass than the Poa greens we see at Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach during the West Coast swing.

Last year, Detroit Golf Club played as the ninth easiest course on Tour, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-10 easiest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. The golf course itself is a standard par 72, featuring four par threes, ten par fours, and four par fives. Only four of the par fours measure over 450 yards, and only one of them measures over 475 yards. Four measure below 400 yards. Three of the par fives are reachable, and they all feature over a 28% birdie rate. Every hole except the 11th has over a 12% birdie rate, but unlike TPC Twin Cities, there’s not a whole lot of blowout potential at Detroit Golf Club. Nearly half the holes have under a 10% bogey rate, and only one hole has over a 2% double bogey rate. I specifically remember watching Cam Davis down the stretch last year, and he hit a number of errant drives on Sunday. Still, it never once felt like par was out of the equation for him. The unfortunate nature of this golf course is that under receptive conditions, Detroit Golf Club does not penalize poor shots, and thus, the course does not do the best job of separating poor tee to green play from elite tee to green play. This tournament is essentially what we would define as a “putting contest,” which I will expand upon further as we dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 11.4% of  strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club have come off the tee, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Detroit Golf Club features the 10th widest fairways on Tour, and last year, it ranked 26th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Each of the last three years, it has ranked as one of the easiest driving courses on the PGA Tour.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 37th out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty. There is very little penalty for driving the ball in the rough here. It ranked 25th out of 40 courses in rough penalty and 34th out of 40 courses in non-rough penalty. A lot of this depends on rain-fall. It’s not that the rough isn’t thick here, but because the course is so short and the greens are receptive, many players will opt to bomb away, knowing that they can hold greens with wedges.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 38th out of 40 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, so again, with basically no water on the course, it’s really tough to make big numbers here. Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 39th out of 40 courses in penalty strokes per round, and 32nd out of 40 courses in reloads per rounds. Each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-two in fewest penalty strokes per round.
  • Here’s what Bryson DeChambeau had to say about his strategy in 2020, “I think there’s a lot of bunkers that are around 290, so hopefully, I’ll be able to clear those and they’ll be out of play. So sorry Mr. Ross, but you know, it is what it is. I’m trying to be the casino and give myself the best opportunity to win. Having 9 iron into these par fives, it’s definitely nice to be able to attack par five flags rather than kind of move away from then. There’s a couple holes where I can get close to the green and just chip it on and make a putt. I’ve just got to keep hitting my driver good, and if that happens, it will be a fun week.” Translation: This is a course that allows me to bomb and gauge.
  • Driving distance here is about 10 yards higher than Tour average, and the course isn’t even at altitude, which speaks to the fact that players are pulling driver on nearly every hole. Unlike Sedgefield, Detroit Golf Club is not a positional golf course where it’s imperative to find the fairway to score. In hot and humid conditions, the ball is going to carry a long way, and this is definitively a driver heavy golf course. The longest players in this field off the tee are Brandon Hagy, Joseph Bramlett, Cameron Champ, Wyndham Clark, Taylor Pendrith, Ryan Brehm, Trey Mullinax, Jhonattan Vegas, Chris Gotterup, and Cameron Young. 
  • In 2019, the leaderboard did not feature a ton of bombers. Nate Lashley, Rory Sabbtini, Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, Ted Potter Jr., Brian Stuard and J.T. Poston all finished top-15. Seven of the top 12 on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance. In 2020, Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff finished first and second, but Kevin Kisner, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, and Troy Merritt all lost to the field in driving distance and still finished top-12 on the leaderboard. 2021 told a similar story. For every Cam Davis, Joaquin Niemann, Brandon Hagy, and Bubba Watson, there was also a Kevin Kisner, Hank Lebioda, Troy Merritt, and Mark Anderson. Mapping out this course, I do believe that distance off the tee is a huge advantage here, but it’s more of a luxury than a necessity. Players with below average distance compete here every year, but they do so with elite wedge play and putting.

 

• Approach
  • 33.5% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club have come on approach, which is slightly below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Last year, it ranked 33rd out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-seven in easiest courses in strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club had the seventh easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-seven in highest greens in regulation percentage.
  • It ranked 21st out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty inside 150 yards and 38th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from over 200 yards.
  • Detroit Golf Club is a bit of a wedge-fest. 11% of approach shots come from 75-100 yards, 14.7% of approach shots come from 100-125 yards, and 18.9% of approach shots come from 125-150 yards. The best long-term wedge players in this field have been Russell Henley, Camilo Villegas, Max McGreevy, Wesley Bryan, Keegan Bradley, Ben Kohles, Henrik Norlander, Scott Stallings, and Charley Hoffman. 
  • All of the other proximity buckets fall below Tour average. There are a couple long iron shots because of the two long par threes and four par fives, but with all the middle to short par fours, wedges still reign supreme. There’s barely any approach shots from 175-200 yards at all, which I found interesting.

 

• Around the Green 
  • 13.5% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club have come around the green, which is below the Tour average of 14.5%
  • Last year, it ranked 31st out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, but the prior two years, it actually ranked harder than Tour average.
  • Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 32nd out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway. It ranked 23rd out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 23rd out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Despite the fact that there is certainly some undulation to these greens, it’s hard to make a case for looking at around the green metrics on a course that features such a high greens in regulation percentage. If players are having to rely on their short game more than three or four times a round here, it’s highly unlikely that they are even remotely in contention.

 

• Putting 
  • 41.6% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club have come putting, which is well above the Tour average of 35.6%. Statistically, this is what we would define as a putting contest. 
  • In 2019, every single player in the Top-20 gained strokes putting. Lashley was fine from tee to green but unbelievable with the flat-stick. In 2020, the mis-perception was that Bryson and Wolff played great here because they dominated off the tee, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. The reason why Bryson and Wolff finished first and second that year is because they gained a combined 14 strokes putting. Every single player in the Top-12 that year gained over a stroke putting. There was simply no roadmap to finishing highly in that tournament without having, at the bear minimum, a good putting week. 2021 told a similar story. Only two players in the Top-25 lost strokes putting. Detroit Golf Club is not a Riviera or a Torrey Pines that can really separate players from tee to green.
  • Last year, it ranked 12th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last three years it has ranked harder than Tour average in this category. This does speak to the fact that there is some undulation to these putting surfaces. Last year, Detroit Golf Club ranked 15th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from inside five feet. It ranked 18th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and it ranked 13th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from 15 feet plus. Relative to other courses, the green complexes are probably the best defense that Detroit Golf Club has. Putting over everything this week! The best long-term Bent-grass/Poa putters in this field have been Troy Merritt, Beau Hossler, Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Adam Scott, Mackenzie Hughes, Brendon Todd, Hank Lebioda, Zach Johnson, and Maverick McNealy. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • I doubt this will come as a huge surprise, but players that rated out highly in birdies or better gained entering the week have found a great deal of success at Detroit Golf Club. The players that make the most birdies relative to the field per round have been Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Davis Riley, Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Adam Scott, Scott Stallings, and Adam Svensson. 
  • This is the type of event where players need to be in the mindset that they will have to shoot 20 under to have a legitimate chance at winning the tournament. Some players thrive during those weeks, while others will very transparently admit that such a style of golf is not their jam. We want to be targeting players that are comfortable going low, and raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions. The best long-term players in easy scoring conditions have been Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Jhonattan Vegas, Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy, Tony Finau, Doug Ghim, Taylor Moore, Mark Hubbard, and Adam Svensson. 
  • Opportunities Gained measures the amount of birdie looks that a player gives himself inside 15 feet per round. This is always a valuable stat on wedge-fests. The players who consistently give themselves the most birdie chances have been Cameron Young, Luke List, Russell Henley, Will Zalatoris, Keegan Bradley, John Huh, Chris Kirk, Kurt Kitayama, Adam Scott, and Austin Smotherman. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In its very short history, Detroit Golf Club features some of the least predictive history on the PGA Tour. There are certainly players that have performed well here all three years, and while there is some nuance to these greens, I am treating course history the same way that I did last week with TPC Twin Cities. I cannot say I really care too much whether a player has shown up here before. Cameron Davis missed his first two cuts here before winning the tournament last year. With that being said, the best players at Detroit Golf Club over the last three years have been Cameron Tringale, Kevin Kisner, Nate Lashley, Chris Kirk, Maverick McNealy, Brandon Hagy, Troy Merritt, Brian Stuard, Doc Redman, and J.J. Spaun. 
  • There will certainly be some temptation to look at other Donald Ross courses such as Sedgefield and East Lake, but I wouldn’t go too crazy there. Not just because the agronomy is different, but there is a legitimate penalty for missing the fairway at both Sedgefield and East Lake. Sedgefield is a short, positional, club down golf course, and East Lake features some really gnarly and unpredictable Bermuda rough in its own right. At Detroit Golf Club, players have far more leeway off the tee and thus approach the course with a completely strategy than the other Donald Ross courses on Tour.
  • Instead, I think we would be better suited looking at Bent-grass birdie-fests such as TPC Deere Run, TPC Craig Ranch, and the Summit Club, where there is very little resistance provided from tee to green. TPC Deere Run in particular checks a lot of the boxes I am looking for, with similar agronomy and a stronger relative emphasis on elite putting than elite tee to green play. The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Russell Henley, Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Maverick McNealy, Dylan Frittelli, Jhonattan Vegas, Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, and Emiliano Grillo. 
  • The best players in this field at TPC Craig Ranch have been Scott Stallings, Matt Kuchar, Troy Merritt, Ryan Palmer, Davis Riley, Peter Malnati, Joseph Bramlett, James Hahn, Vincent Whaley, and Rory Sabbatini. 
  • The other course that jumped out to me was Silverado, host of the Fortinet Championship. Silverado is another classical, tree-lined course with Bent/Poa greens that features little penalty for missing the fairway. The best players in this field at Silverado have been Tony Finau, Stewart Cink, Ryan Moore, Brendan Steele, Harry Higgs, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, Cameron Percy, Cameron Champ, and Patrick Rodgers
  • I also think we could make a solid argument for TPC River Highlands, at least just in the sense that it features the exact same agronomy and both courses place an emphasis on wedge play. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Patrick Cantlay, Brendan Steele, Ryan Moore, Kevin Streelman, Tommy Gainey, Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, and Russell Henley. 

 

Overall, I go back and forth on whether I like tournaments for DraftKings purposes that are so dependent on putting. I talked last week about how life is too short to play guys at 20% when water comes into play on 14 of 18 holes, and I almost feel the same way about putting contests. If there is a really excellent ball-striker at 20% ownership this week, and we were playing at Torrey Pines, I would normally say that we need to value the ball-striking. Yet on this course, if the objectively worse ball-striker putts better, he’s still going to outperform the better ball-striker. If the worse ball-striker was playing Torrey Pines, he would be so much farther behind the eight ball, that even if he had a good putting week, a lot of those putts would be for par. This example hopefully explains the variance involved with putting contests. Players who can hit the ball a long way off the tee and are really strong wedge players have a big advantage here, but at the end of the day, putting is still the greatest determining factor at Detroit Golf Club.

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (8%)
  • Driving Distance (8%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (20%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting (Bent/Poa) (20%)
• Scoring Stats (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (10%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (16%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (5%)
  • TPC Deere Run (4%)
  • Silverado (3%)
  • TPC Craig Ranch (2%)
  • TPC Twin Cities (2%)

 

Top 20 

1. Adam Scott
2. Scott Stallings
3. Tony Finau
4. Mark Hubbard
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Webb Simpson
7. Max Homa
8. Cameron Davis
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Chris Gotterup
11. Chris Kirk
12. Russell Henley
13. Cameron Tringale
14. Adam Svensson
15. Will Zalatoris
16. Keegan Bradley
17. Sahith Theegala
18. Adam Hadwin
19. Cameron Young
20. Patrick Rodgers

Most over-valued based on expected price: Will Zalatoris (15th), Cameron Young (19th), Harris English (66th), Emiliano Grillo (68th), Doug Ghim (70th), Jason Day (89th), Si Woo Kim (97th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Adam Scott (1st), Scott Stallings (2nd), Mark Hubbard (4th), Chris Gotterup (10th), Patrick Rodgers (20th), Austin Smotherman (21st), Stewart Cink (23rd), Wesley Bryan (24th)