By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: East Lake Golf Club
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• Designer: Donald Ross (1913) with Rees Jones re-design in 2008 and 2016
• Length: Par 70; 7,348 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
• Fairways: Zoysia-grass, measuring 28 yards wide on average
• Rough: Tifway Bermuda-grass 2’5”
• Greens: 6,000 square foot MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermuda-grass, running 12.5 on the stimp.

 

We’ve made it! The TOUR Championship is the final event of the PGA Tour season and the FedEx Cup playoffs. For better or worse, it’s a tournament that has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Starting in 2007, the event became the final leg of the four-tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the Tour Championship was held in late August rather than mid-September. Since 2004, East Lake has been the event’s permanent home.

As far as the format goes, from 2009 to 2019, the awarding of points assured that if any of the top-five in the FedEx Cup entering the week won the event, than they would also win the FedEx Cup. Still, it remained possible for one player to win the TOUR Championship and another player to win the FedEx Cup. For example, in 2018, Tiger Woods won the TOUR Championship but finished second in the FedEx Cup. After realizing that this was a somewhat disjointed way of crowning a season champion, the PGA Tour decided to create an event more disjointed structure! Beginning in 2019, the tournament adopted a new format in order to ensure that the winner of the tournament would also be the FedEx Cup champion. The player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into the tournament now starts at 10-under par. The player with the second most points starts at eight under par, and so on the down the board we go. Here is the full starting strokes for each position.

• -10: 1st in FedEx Cup
• -8: 2nd in FedEx Cup
• -7: 3rd in FedEx Cup
• -6: 4th in FedEx Cup
• -5: 5th in FedEx Cup
• -4: 6-10th in FedEx Cup
• -3: 11-15th in FedEx Cup
• -2: 16-20th in FedEx Cup
• -1: 21-25th in FedEx Cup
• E: 26-30th in FedEx Cup

A whole article could be written on why this format is silly and problematic, especially on a golf course such as East Lake that does not feature a great deal of variance, but we’ll save that for another day. As far as the venue goes, East Lake has seen a number of changes over the years in its own right. The Donald Ross original received a Rees Jones renovation in 2008 that included a switch from Bent-grass to Bermuda-grass, which certainly made more sense given the Southeastern climate. In 2016, Jones returned to East Lake and added another 78 yards to the course with new tee boxes on both the 16th and 17th holes. The nines were also reversed, with the round now finishing with the 590 yard par five instead of the controversial par three closer.

Despite Jones getting his grubby little mittens all over a strong original design, Ross’ presence can still be felt on the green complexes. Still, with added length, pinched fairways, and excessive bunkering, East Lake is far more of a Rees Jones course than a Donald Ross course in its character. Jones left a similar imprint on Aronomink, Baltusrol, Bellerive, Bethpage Black, Congressional, Cog Hill, Hazeltine, Atlanta Athletic Club, Medinah No. 3 and Torrey Pines. These are all long, over-bunkered, execution golf courses that offer little strategic value. East Lake is no different.

Given Jones’ overwhelmingly homogenous design philosophy, it should not come as a surprise that East Lake typically plays as one of one of the more challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Last year, it ranked 16th out of 40 courses in difficulty, but in 2019, under more dry conditions, it played as the hardest course on the entire PGA Tour schedule. East Lake features some of the longest and most difficult par threes on the PGA Tour schedule. All four measure over 197 yards and play to a scoring average over par. Multiple players have cited this group as the toughest on Tour, and this distinctive challenge also explains why elite long iron players have experienced so much success here.

The par fours are no cakewalk either. Only two par fours measure under 420 yards, the third and the 12th, and neither are remotely drivable. Eight par fours measure between 440 and 520 yards, and all of them play to a scoring average over 3.9. The large amount of longer par threes and longer par fours explain why such a large plurality of approach shots come from over 175 yards.

It’s absolutely essential to score on the two par fives at East Lake, which are really the only true birdie opportunities on the entire course. The pair play as the the two easiest holes on the course, and the sixth is essentially a par four and a half, playing to a stroke average of just 4.41.

I would describe East Lake as a death by 1,000 paper cuts course. It’s by no means easy, but I would resist the temptation to compare it to other challenging Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind and PGA National, which are both defined by their amount of water hazards. TPC Southwind and PGA National both rank inside the top-five in penalty strokes per round, whereas East Lake ranks 32nd out of 40 courses. East Lake has far more in common with a course such as Innisbrook, another Bermuda-grass course with harder than average scoring conditions but very little water. Only one hole at East Lake features a double bogey rate over 5%, but 16 holes feature a bogey rate of above 10%. This partially explains the reason why players with starting strokes have been able to hang on so easily. East Lake is not a course that produces a great deal of variance. We will see a lot of pars this week, some birdies, and some bogeys, yet do not expect a great deal of implosions or massive leaderboard movement. It’s not a golf course where players can go out and shoot a 63 either. Once again, The range of outcomes at East Lake is on the lower end, which feels somewhat antithetical to the fireworks the PGA Tour is hoping to create in its season finale. Again, that’s a whole separate article. Let’s dive into the stats that matter this week.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 14.6% of strokes gained at East Lake came off the tee, which is just a touch below the Tour average of 15.2%. That number hikes up to 15.5% historically.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 27th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Historically, it always ranks right around Tour average in off the tee difficulty, which I found surprising. East Lake is undeniably a challenging driving course, so if I had to guess, that number can best be explained by the quality of field. All other metrics point to this being an extremely difficult course off the tee.
  • East Lake features the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, and driving accuracy here has only been 54.8%, compared to the Tour average of 62.8%. 
  • Last year, East Lake ranked fifth out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in missed fairway penalty. 
  • Last year, East Lake ranked third out of 40 courses in rough penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-five in rough penalty. 
  • There are countless player quotes describing the importance of hitting the fairways at East Lake due to the unpredictability of the Bermuda rough, but here were a few that stood out to me:
    • Dustin Johnson: “The rough here is always brutal, and you never get a good lie. You have to hit the fairway, and then once you do hit the fairway, you’ve got to hit a perfect iron shot if you want to get it on the green. The only way to control the golf ball coming into the greens is hitting out of the fairway. That’s the only thing I need to do a little better tomorrow. It wasn’t like I was way off or anything. Just hit quite a few drives in the rough, which is no good around here.
    • Rory McIlroy: “If you don’t hit fairways, with this Bermuda rough, you have no control over your golf ball. You’re sort of guessing whether it’s going to fly or whether it’s going to come out soft. When you start to get yourself out of position, especially when they’ve let this Bermuda rough just get up a little bit, and it just takes all control out of your hands with your second shot.”
    • Tiger Woods: “In general, this is a ball-striker’s golf course. I mean, you’ve got to hit your golf ball well. You’ve got to drive it well, place your irons correctly. If you drive the ball in the rough, you know you can’t get the ball close. The Bermuda rough, you just can’t control. It puts a premium on driving.” 
    • Brandt Snedeker: “Most important element here is hitting the fairways. If you don’t hit the fairways here, you can’t be aggressive. You can’t be aggressive if you put the ball in bad spots and make bogeys.”
    • Jim Furyk: “A lot of the defense of this golf course really is in the Bermuda rough. You have to hit fairways. Some of them are very thin and very difficult to hit.”
  • I preach this often in my articles, but driving accuracy on courses with Bermuda rough is generally far more important than driving accuracy on courses with Blue-grass rough. Bermuda rough is far more unpredictable, and far more difficult to control spin out of, which is why we rarely ever see players attempt to bomb and gauge courses such as East Lake or Sedgefield. There is a legitimate premium on hitting fairways here. 10 of the last 14 winners have ranked top-10 in fairways hit. The last 12 winners have all ranked inside the top-nine in strokes gained off the tee as well.
  • The most accurate drivers of the ball in the field this season have been Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Collin Morikawa, and Sungjae Im. 
  • Don’t get me wrong, we’ve seen players succeed here without hitting every fairway. Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Dustin Johnson all finished highly last year while ranking below average in driving accuracy percentage. With that being said, they all putted extremely well and were still able to hit greens from the rough, a challenging task at East Lake. The three players that finished ahead of them, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Kevin Na, all ranked inside the top-10 in driving accuracy percentage. 2020 told a similar story. Players that did rank above average in driving accuracy were still able to find success, but it required elite approach play and putting. I understand that East Lake features the most narrow fairways on Tour and sticky Bermuda rough, but this tournament still always seems to come down to iron play. Don’t get me wrong, I will still be overweight on off the tee metrics this week. I do not believe that East Lake is a pure second second shot golf course. There’s undoubtedly a huge advantage in playing from the fairway, and a severe penalty for wayward driving. Yet we’ve still seen players such as Dustin Johnson claim victory in 2020, while ranking 27th out of 30 players in driving accuracy. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm, all finished top-five that year ranking below average in driving accuracy, but all of them possessed above average distance. The reason for this is that even on courses with Bermuda rough, longer players such as Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm still possess a distinct advantage, as even the most accurate players will miss fairways. Players who are short and wayward are simply unable to compete. For this reason, I wanted to identify players that rose their baseline off the tee on courses with narrow fairways. The best drivers of the ball on courses with narrow fairways have been Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sungjae Im. 

 

• Approach
  • Last year, 39.5% of strokes gained at East Lake came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%. That number does drop to 34.4% historically.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 25th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • Last year, it featured the 13th most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and historically, it has ranked well inside the top-10 in toughest greens to hit on Tour.
  • 32% of approach shots at East Lake have come from over 200 yards, which is comfortably above the Tour average. Between the four long par threes, two reachable par fives, and four longer par fours, it’s possible that players will face a long iron approach shot on up to 50% of their holes.
  • Oddly enough, there has actually been less approach shots at East Lake between 150 and 200 yards than Tour average, but more approach shots from 100-150 than Tour average. Essentially, the five par fours under 450 yards should yield wedge shots, but the the four long par fours, two par fives, and three par fours will produce long iron shots. I will still primarily be looking at long iron play as the most crucial key to success here, with short iron play, specifically from 125-150 yards, as a bonus.
  • The best long iron players in this field over the past year have been Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, Viktor Hovland, and Hideki Matsuyama. 
  • The best players from 125 to 150 yards in this field over the past year have been Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and Rory McIlroy. 
  • At the end of the day, while placement off the tee is important, the second shot is still paramount at East Lake. In 2019, each of the top-six players on the leaderboard gained over three strokes on approach. In 2021, five of the top-six on the leaderboard gained over three strokes on approach.

 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 12.0% of strokes gained at East Lake came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. That number hikes up to 13.9% historically.
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 34th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in around the green difficulty.
  • Last year, it ranked 29th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, but that feels like a bit of an anomaly. In 2019, it ranked third in around the green difficulty from the rough, and in 2018, East Lake was the number one course on Tour in around the green difficulty from the rough. 
  • The bunkers offer a bit of a reprieve. Players would much rather be in green-side bunkers at East Lake than they would the Bermuda rough. The greens in regulation percentage here is certainly low enough where players will inevitably be forced to rely on their short game. As I’ve mentioned before, a different technique is often required out of Bermuda rough, and I want to identify players that raise their around the green baseline on courses with this agronomy. The best around the green players in this field on courses with Bermuda rough have been Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, and Cameron Smith. 

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 33.8% of strokes gained at East Lake came putting, which is below the Tour average of 35.6%. That number does creep up to 36.2% historically.
  • Unlike most Ross courses, the degree of difficulty of putting at East Lake is fairly low. Last year, it ranked 38th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty. The year prior to that, it ranked as the easiest putting course on the entire PGA Tour. Every single year, it ranks in the bottom five in strokes gained putting difficulty. These greens are fairly benign for a Ross course. 
  • Last year, East Lake ranked 39th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, and each of the last five years, it has ranked as the easiest or second easiest course in short putting. It ranked 37th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and each of the last five years, it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on Tour from five to 15 feet. Same deal with lag putting. East Lake consistently ranks as one of the easiest courses on Tour in putting from longer than 15 feet.
  • I will still be certainly looking to identify players that raise their baseline on Bermuda-grass greens, but I would not get overly caught up in anything putting related this week. East Lake is a ball-striker’s course through and through. If a player significantly raises their baseline on Bermuda-grass greens, view that as a bonus.
  • The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field have been Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Billy Horschel, and Joaquin Niemann. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • East Lake is a challenging enough golf course where I was able to find a correlation with bogey avoidance. In 2019, the top-three players on the leaderboard finished top-three in bogey avoidance. 2020 told a similar story. The leaders in bogey avoidance finished second, fourth, and fifth on the leaderboard. In 2021, the top-six players in bogey avoidance finished third, second, ninth, fifth, fifth, and first on the leaderboard, The best players in this field in bogey avoidance over the past year have been Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Xander Schauffele. 
  • As I’ve also spoken about before, many people spend too much time caught up in how players perform on certain green types, and not enough time on how they perform out of different rough types. There are certain players that are always going to be more comfortable on courses with Bermuda rough, and there are also certain players that really seem to consistently struggle out of Bermuda rough. The best tee to green players on courses with Bermuda rough have been Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, and Collin Morikawa. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • I was unable to find a massive correlation between course history and success at East Lake. It is certainly the type of course that can cause players trouble on their first viewing, but the predictiveness of its course history has fallen right in the middle of the pack when stacked up against other Tour courses. Still, the best players in this field at East Lake have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, and Jon Rahm.
  • Both East Lake and Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, are courses that feature similar agronomy and place a premium on driving accuracy. East Lake is certainly longer and harder than Sedgefield, but it should not come as a surprise that even mid-tier players such as Henrik Stenson, Billy Horschel, and Brandt Snedeker, have experienced so much success at both courses. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sam Burns. 
  • I’ve already alluded to Innisbrook, host of the Valspar Championship, as another challenging Bermuda course that is not defined by its water hazards. Both East Lake and Innisbrook are narrow courses that place a premium on hitting fairways and feature a large plurality of approach shots from over 175 yards. The best players in this field at Innisbrook have been Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (22%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (8%)
  • Fairways Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Narrow Fairways (6%)
• Approach (34%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (8%)
• Around the Green (6%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda courses (6%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda courses (10%)
• Scoring Stats (16%)
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda courses (10%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (6%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
  • East Lake (5%)
  • Innisbrook (4%)
  • Sedgefield (3%)

 

Model 

1. Justin Thomas (-3)
2. Will Zalatoris (-7)
3. Rory McIlroy (-4)
4. Scottie Scheffler (-10)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (-2)
6. Xander Schauffele (-6)
7. Tony Finau (-4)
8. Sungjae Im (-4)
9. Viktor Hovland (-2)
10. Jon Rahm (-3)
11. Corey Conners (-1)
12. Sam Burns (-5)
13. Aaron Wise (E)
14. Collin Morikawa (-1)
15. Cameron Smith (-4)
16. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-3)
17. Joaquin Niemann (-2)
18. Cameron Young (-3)
19. Billy Horschel (-1)
20. Max Homa (-2)
21. Brian Harman (-1)
22. Patrick Cantlay (-8)
23. Scott Stallings (-3)
24. Adam Scott (E)
25. Jordan Spieth (-2)
26. Tom Hoge (-1)
27. J.T. Poston (E)
28. Sahith Theegala (E)
29. K.H. Lee (E)
30. Sepp Straka (-4)