By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: El Camaleon
• Location: Playa del Carmen, Mexico
• Designer: Greg Norman (2006)
• Length: Par 71; 7,017 yards
• Hazards: A canal runs through the entire property, coming into play on nine holes
• Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
• Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum (2′)
• Greens: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum, measuring 7,000 square feet on average and running 11 feet on the stimp

 

The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is held annually at El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, just south of Cancun. The tournament debuted in 2007 as the first PGA Tour event ever to be held in Mexico. Originally conceived as an alternate event to be contested in the late winter opposite the WGC Match Play, the tournament was granted full status in 2013. After cycling through multiple title sponsors, the World Wide Technology Championship is now held annually in early November, offering full FedEx Cup points, an invitation to the Masters, and a prize fund of $8,200,000.

Last year, the Mayakoba featured its strongest field in the history of the event, headlined by Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Abraham Ancer, Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Reed, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann, Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris, and Shane Lowry. The field is significantly worse this year, but with Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, and Aaron Wise all making the trek down to Mexico, the World Wide Technology Championship still presents far more intrigue than last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

As far as the golf course itself, El Camaleon falls on the far end of the “short, positional, club-down” spectrum. The categorization of a “short, positional, club-down” course gets thrown around a lot, but El Camaleon truly fits the bill. Measuring just a hair over 7,000 yards on the scorecard, El Camaleon is one of the shortest and tightest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. With three par threes measuring under 155 yards, it features the shortest set of one-shotters that players will see all year. Only one of the 11 par fours measures over 465 yards, and all three of the par fives are reachable by even the shortest of hitters. Even considering the fact that paspalum fairways do not experience much run out, El Camaelon is still a very narrow course that takes driver out of players’ hands, and still features a large plurality of short iron approach shots.

The term “coastal course” also gets thrown around a lot, and despite being in close proximity to the ocean, the majority of holes at El Camaleon actually run through a dense tropical jungle. Many of the holes are lined on both sides by a mangrove forest, which makes keeping the ball in play of the upmost important. Balls that find the mangroves will almost certainly be unplayable. Similar to courses such as Sedgefield, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC Potomac, El Camaleon is what I would define as a “Position A” golf course. The tee shot at El Camaleon is absolutely crucial, which is not something we can actually say about other shorter courses such as Pebble Beach, TPC Summerlin, or Port Royal. Players that are unable to keep the ball in play off the tee at El Camaleon are dead on arrival, yet if players are able to accomplish this crucial first step, the course actually gets easier the closer it gets to the hole. Many Jack Nicklaus and Tom Fazio courses feature inviting fairways that lead to challenging approach shots to undulating green complexes. El Camaleon is the inverse of that. The Norman design features narrow corridors off the tee, but extremely soft, receptive, and banal green complexes.  For this reason, this event is probably the heaviest I will be all season on driving accuracy metrics, and players that struggle to find the short grass off the tee on a consistent basis are easy cross offs. Let’s dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Let’s start out with a few player quotes to set the scene.
    • Jason Bohn, “I think what I like about this layout, obviously length is always an advantage. But here it’s about positioning yourself in the middle of the fairway or right side of the fairway to attack some of these flags.” 
    • John Huh, “Obviously, you got to keep your ball in the fairway. If you’re not, it’s pretty much that you’re in the hazard.”
  • Any tournament won by Viktor Hovland in back-to-back years would presumably provide an advantage for longer players, but the most underrated aspect of the Norwegian’s game is his elite driving accuracy. Last year, Hovland finished second in the entire field in driving accuracy. Matthew Wolff, another player known for his power off the tee, only found success at El Camaleon because he was incredibly accurate that week, ranking third in driving accuracy. The top-10 players last year in driving accuracy all made the cut and had an average finishing position of 24.2. For sake of comparison, five of the top-11 players in driving distance on the week failed to even make the weekend. 
  • 2021 told a similar story. Hovland was slightly less accurate, but he still ranked 15th in driving accuracy. The top-three players in driving accuracy, Brendon Todd, Lucas Glover, and Emiliano Grillo, all finished top-eight on the leaderboard. On the other hand, three of the top-seven players on the leaderboard, Adam Long, Tom Hoge, and Harris English, lost to the field in driving distance. The correlation between driving accuracy and success at El Camaleon is an easy one to spot, and it will be absolutely crucial this week to identify the players that excel in this particular skill-set. The most accurate players off the tee in this field are Ryan Armour, Chez Reavie, Aaron Rai, Ryan Moore, Jim Herman, David Lingmerth, Russell Henley, Brendon Todd, Troy Merritt, and Lucas Glover. 
  • Good drive percentage measures the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens and regulation hit from drives that are not in the fairway, divided by the number of par fours and par fives played. This is a really useful stat to pair with driving accuracy on a course like El Camaleon because the rough here is non-penal. Missing in the rough, but not the mangroves, is far from a death sentence. However, there is a severe penalty at El Camaleon for the big miss. Drives that land in the mangroves will not allow players any chance of hitting the green in regulation. Good drive percentage can help me identify the players that are accurate enough to put themselves in position to hit the green in regulation, without penalizing them for just missing the short grass. Last year, Viktor Hovland finished second in driving accuracy, but led the field in good drive percentage. Last year, the top-10 players in good drive percentage had an average finishing position of 25.4. In 2020, the top-10 players in good drive percentage had an average finishing position of 15.7, and Viktor Hovland ranked third in good drive percentage. The top players in this field in good drive percentage are Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Laird, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Armour, Chez Reavie, and Adam Long. 
  • Finally, we’ve given extensive mention to how El Camaleon is a club-down, short, positional course. The strategy off the tee at El Camaleon is far different than at a course like Torrey Pines. Does that mean that players won’t hit driver here? Not necessarily. Some players who are extremely accurate with their driver may choose to hit driver. Other players may choose to not hit driver at all, and still find loads of success at El Camaleon. Players can really hit whatever club they feel most comfortable with off the tee at El Camaleon. It’s a short enough golf course that even those with below average distance can club down and still find themselves with a large plurality of short iron approaches. Other players who are confident in their big stick may choose to pull driver often, in search of getting as close to the green as possible. For this reason, I wanted to look at which players had the most success off the tee on shorter golf courses. I don’t really care how often my players choose to hit driver on this course, I am only concerned with whether whatever strategy they employ allows them to gain strokes off the tee. The players that gain the most strokes off the tee on courses under 7,200 yards have been Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo, Tony Finau, Kramer Hickok, Russell Henley, Tyler Duncan, Chris Kirk, Aaron Wise, Maverick McNealy, and Scottie Scheffler. 
  • There are eight players that rate out Top-30 in driving accuracy, good drive percentage, and strokes gained off the tee on shorter golf courses. Those players are Ryan Armour, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover, Kramer Hickok, Hayden Buckley, Doug Ghim, Kevin Streelman, and Sebastian Munoz. Just like bombers start on second base before even teeing off on the first hole at Torrey, I believe that these eight players will have a distinct advantage at El Camaleon

 

• Approach
  • I’ve already given mention to the simplicity of these green complexes. While we do not have shot-link data, I ran through every hole to try and figure out what proximity buckets the approach shots would be coming from. This can be a difficult exercise on a golf course that does not feature a homogenous strategy off the tee, but here is my best approximation:
    • 75-100 yards: 6%
    • 100-125 yards: 11%
    • 125-150 yards: 11%
    • 150-175 yards: 33%
    • 175-200 yards: 17%
    • 200 yards plus: 22%
  • While the Greg Norman design does play longer than the scorecard suggests due to the softness of Paspalum fairways, and the fact that driver is non-essential here, El Camaleon is still a mid to short iron course. The best long-term short to middle iron players in this field are Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Lower, Russell Knox, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Tom Hoge, and Mark Hubbard. 

 

• Around the Green
  • Any course that Viktor Hovland can experience so much success on is not one that likely features complex and difficult green-side surrounds. Balls tend to sit up nicely in Paspalum rough, and these greens are so flat and receptive that even players who short-side themselves will be tasked with a fairly rudimentary up and down.
  • Greg Norman does tend to over-bunker his courses, but none of these “hazards” are overly deep, and I struggled to find any correlation between sand save percentage and success at El Camaleon.
  • At the end of the day, El Camaleon is a golf course with a higher than average greens in regulation percentage that is routinely won at north of 20-under par. I have a very difficult time making a case for looking too deeply at any around the green metrics this week.

 

• Putting 
  • Viktor Hovland spoke about the distinct challenge of Paspalum greens, “The Paspalum greens are really slow compared to what we normally play because you can’t really get them any quicker than 10 on the stimpmeter, so your tendency is to over-read some putts and hit them a little short. I think you’ve just got to get your mind into just hitting it a little bit firmer and not worry about the putt coming back so much.” 
  • We can debate until we are blue in the face about whether or not Paspalum greens are more difficult to putt on than Bent or Bermuda greens. The reality of the situation is that it all comes down to personal preference. Personally, I am not a huge fan of Paspalum greens and I tend to really struggle any time that I play golf in Mexico. I find having to hit the ball harder messes with the rhythm of my stroke, and I like greens where I know that if I pick a spot right in front of me, the ball will trickle down on its intended line.
  • This is a tournament where both extremely poor putters and elite putters have both found varying levels of success. An argument could certainly be made that greens with less subtle, internal breaks will level the playing field between strong and weak putters. A counter-argument could also be made that elementary greens allow elite putters to really separate themselves. At the end of the day, it’s simply prudent to identify those who seem to enjoy Paspalum greens and have found success putting on these surfaces in the past. The best long-term Paspalum putters in this field are Adam Long, Brandon Wu, Emiliano Grillo, Billy Horschel, Nate Lashley, Tony Finau, Ryan Moore, Danny Lee, Aaron Wise, and Harris English. 
  • Despite this being a course with fairly large greens, three putt percentage at El Camaleon is far lower than Tour average. I typically tend to weigh putting more on courses with a high greens in regulation percentage and easy scoring conditions, but the degree of difficulty of putting at El Camaleon is extremely low. This is a driving accuracy course through and through, and I will be lower on putting this week than any other event this fall swing.

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • On any course with a large plurality of short iron approach shots that routinely ask its champions to get to 20-under par, I’ll be looking to identify players that generate scoring opportunities at an elite rate. The players that give themselves the most birdie or eagle opportunities inside 15 per round are Tom Hoge, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Davis Riley, Kevin Streelman, Aaron Wise, David Lipsky, Tony Finau, and John Huh. 
  • I don’t know if I would define El Camaleon as a true birdie fest, but each of its last four champions have won at 20-under par or better. I certainly want to identify players that raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions and have no problem keeping up in a track meet. The players in this field that make the most birdies per round are Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Viktor Hovland, Aaron Wise, Justin Rose, and Brendon Todd. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of the predictive nature of course history, El Camaleon actually ranks on the higher end. While the green complexes are extremely straightforward, this is certainly the type of course that may take a few viewings for players to really feel comfortable with their strategy off the tee. There are certain players such as Russell Knox, Adam Long, Danny Lee, and Charles Howell III, that seem to consistently show up here year after year. Still, Viktor Hovland missed back-to-back cuts at El Camaleon before reeling off two wins, so poor course history is far from a death sentence. I will definitely give a bump to players who have performed well here over the years, but I do not feel that players are incapable of finding success on their debut appearance. The best players in this field at El Camaleon have been Russell Knox, Adam Long, Danny Lee, Viktor Hovland, Emiliano Grillo, Billy Horschel, Brendon Todd, Maverick McNealy, Scott Piercy, and Scottie Scheffler. 
  • Yes, El Camaleon is the poster child for short, positional golf courses, but not all short courses are created equal. There are so many short courses on the PGA Tour schedule that feature a large plurality of approaches inside 150 yards and feature a winning score between 16 and 23 under par. Yet not all of these courses place an emphasis on the tee shot, and I wanted to really focus in on the short courses where driving accuracy is absolutely essential. As previously mentioned, I think it would be a mistake to look at recent fall swing stops such as TPC Summerlin and Port Royal as reference points. TPC Summerlin, Port Royal, and Pebble Beach, for that matter, all feature much wider fairways. Most players generally end up in the same spot off the tee, which places a much larger emphasis on the second shot. At El Camaleon, the emphasis actually falls on the first shot, and players who are unable to keep the ball in play off the tee will struggle mightily. For context, At TPC Summerlin, Port Royal, and Pebble Beach, off the tee accounted for zero percent of my model. At El Camaleon, off the tee accounts for 30% of my model! For this reason, I wanted to focus heavily, on shorter courses where positioning off the tee was crucial.
    • The first of these courses that came to mind was Harbor Town, which similarly features tight corridors off the tee. The best players in this field at Harbor Town have been Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Erik Van Rooyen, Alex Noren, Joel Dahmen, Russell Knox, Emiliano Grillo, and Maverick McNealy. 
    • TPC Sawgrass is another “position A” golf course where placement off the tee is absolutely crucial. We’ve seen inaccurate drivers of the ball such as Cameron Smith find success here, but I would still put him in the outlier category. Those who can keep the ball in play off the tee have the easiest path to success at TPC Sawgrass by far, and those who struggle at this skill-set will be completely behind the eight ball and forced to gain an exorbitant amount of strokes with their flat-stick. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Doug Ghim, Chris Kirk, Alex Noren, Joel Dahmen, Erik Van Rooyen, Matt Kuchar, and Viktor Hovland. 
    • While not as tree-lined as Harbor Town or TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield might actually be the most position A golf course of them all. While the defense of Sedgefield off the tee comes moreso in the form of sticky Bermuda-grass rough, the Donald Ross design is one of the most highly correlated courses when it comes to driving accuracy and success. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Jim Herman, Ryan Moore, Rory Sabbatini, Denny McCarthy, Ben Griffin, Viktor Hovland, Ryan Armour, and Richy Werenski. 
    • Finally, Waialae features slightly less emphasis on the first shot than the aforementioned tracks, but it is still a short golf course where positioning off the tee does matter. It should not come as a surprise that there has been a strong correlation between leaderboards at both of these two tracks. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Patton Kizzire, Keith Mitchell, Chez Reavie, Collin Morikawa, Russell Knox, Zac Blair, James Hahn, and Russell Henley. 
    • Other “position A” golf courses that just missed the cut, yet are still worthy reference points are TPC Potomac, TPC River Highlands, Sea Island, Innisbrook, and Austin Country Club. 
  • There will certainly be a temptation to look at other coastal, Paspalum courses such as Coco Beach, Corales, and Vidanta Vallarta, but all three of those courses are actually on the coast, greatly affected by wind, and measure over 7,500 yards on the scorecard. While I certainly agree that its worthy to identify players that seem to enjoy courses with this agronomy, I find the character of the three aforementioned golf courses to be far different from El Camaleon. Still, for what it’s worth, the best overall players in this field on Paspalum golf courses have been Adam Long, Billy Horschel, Brandon Wu, Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Nate Lashley, Viktor Hovland, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Brehm, and J.T. Poston. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (30%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Short Courses (10%)
  • Driving Accuracy Percentage (10%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (10%)
• Approach (26%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (16%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Paspalum (10%)
• Scoring Stats (16%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
  • El Camaleon (6%)
  • Waialae (3%)
  • Harbor Town (3%)
  • Sedgefield (3%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (3%)

 

Top 20 

1. Tony Finau
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Emiliano Grillo
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Russell Henley
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Tom Hoge
8. Aaron Wise
9. Billy Horschel
10. Lucas Glover
11. Davis Riley
12. Russell Knox
13. Brian Harman
14. Kevin Streelman
15. Ryan Moore
16. Chez Reavie
17. C.T. Pan
18. Hayden Buckley
19. Aaron Rai
20. Matt Kuchar