By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
• Location: Dublin, Ohio
• Designer: Jack Nicklaus (1974) with a 2021 renovation
• Length: Par 72; 7,543 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 11 holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass fairways measuring 33 yards wide on average
• Rough: 4 inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough with ryegrass and fescue
• Greens: Bent-grass, measuring 5,000 square feet on average, running 11 on the stimp

 

The Memorial Tournament is one of the most iconic events on the PGA Tour schedule. Jack Nicklaus essentially wanted to create his own version of the Masters. He designed Muirfield Village in 1974 with Augusta in mind, and the Memorial is one of only five tournaments on Tour with invitational status. This will bring a smaller field of only 120 players this week compared to the standard 156. The Memorial always attracts a strong field given its relationship with one of the game’s legends, and this year will be no different.

Outside of the respect and admiration that many of the game’s best have for Jack Nicklaus, the host course is enough of a reason alone to bring the top players out to Dublin, Ohio. Muirfield Village is characterized by wide, undulating fairways, thick Bluegrass rough, deep bunkers, and fast and undulating Bent-grass putting surfaces. The course did undergo a substantial renovation prior to last year’s tournament to account for modern technology, and it now tips out to 7,543 yards.

Many architecture appreciators would argue that Muirfield Village is Jack Nicklaus’ crown jewel, and it remains his highest ranked course on Golf Digest’s Top 100 Greatest list. Muirfield Village features many of the Jack Nicklaus staples. The 18-time major winner tends to design courses that primarily favor a fader of the ball. Another Nicklaus principle is that the hole should get more challenging with each shot. Many of his courses are fairly generous off the tee, but the approach shots are generally to small and undulating green complexes. His design philosophy truly embodies the idea of a “second shot golf course.”

Nicklaus has designed a fair amount of courses that will be familiar for PGA Tour fans, including Glen Abbey, host of the RBC Canadian Open in 2008, 2013, and between 2015 and 2018, Montreux Golf Club, Old Greenwood Golf Club, which both formerly hosted the Barracuda Championship, PGA National, host of the Honda Classic, PGA West, Sherwood Country Club, the Concession, and Valhalla, host of the 2014 PGA Championship.

Before we dive into the stats, it’s important to note some of the changes that we made during the recent renovation. In terms of context, Nicklaus essentially felt compelled to make the course more challenging in response to the winning score in recent years creeping up to 20-under par, which was never what he intended for this tournament. “Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I’m going to stick with my old fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag,” Nicklaus said.

Outside of the added length, all of the greens were reconstructed with new Bent-grass, and they now all feature a sub-air system. The fairways got pinched, and all of the greens except the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 17th are essentially all brand new. Fairway bunkers got pushed back on 1, 15, and 17, to basically account for players hitting it longer. For the most part, the renovation was largely able to accomplish what Nicklaus was looking for, as Muirfield Village played as the seventh most difficult course on the PGA Tour last year. Much of the length was added to the par fives, which Nicklaus thought had become too easy. Last year, they played as the fifth hardest set of par fives on the PGA Tour. I would also add that Muirfield Village did get more challenging off the tee with the pinching of fairways and re-positioning of bunkers. I used to think of Muirfield Village as completely a second shot golf course, almost in the same vein as Augusta, but I actually believe it’s now imperative to be a really strong total driver of the ball here. Last year was the first time dating back to 2015 that the course ranked inside the Top-10 in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.

Let’s run through what else will be essential to success this week.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 10.7% of strokes gained at Muirfield Village have come off the tee, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • Muirfield Village ranked eighth out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. This was the highest it has ranked in this category dating back to 2015. 
  • Muirfield Village still had the 11th easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour last year, but wayward tee shots can really get a player in trouble. The Nicklaus design ranked third out of 40 courses last year in missed fairway penalty.
  • More specifically, Muirfield Village ranked first out of 40 courses in average difference of strokes between drives in the fairway and drives in the rough. Ultimately, the rough here is a problem, and while these fairways are not incredibly difficult to hit, the penalty for missing them is dire. This will be a big week for Good Drive Percentage because of that. Cantlay absolutely lapped the field in Good Drive Percentage last year, and therefore also lapped the field in Greens in Regulation percentage. There’s a clear cause and effect here, as it is absolutely essential to be playing from the fairway at Muirfield Village. Every single player in the Top-10 last year gained relative to the field in Good Drive Percentage. The best players in this field in that category this year have been Martin Laird, Russell Knox, Corey Conners, Aaron Rai, Viktor Hovland, Alex Smalley, Daniel Berger, Jon Rahm, Matthew NeSmith, and Shane Lowry. 
  • I’ve already alluded to my belief in an increased importance off driving ability since the renovation, and last year, 14 of the Top-15 players on the leaderboard gained strokes off the tee.
  • Here’s a quote from two-time Memorial champion, Patrick Cantlay, “I like this golf course a lot. It’s in great shape. And puts a serious premium on driving the ball in the fairway, which is one of my strengths. I feel comfortable around here, and it’s nice to be here. There’s a huge premium of driving the golf ball long and in the fairway.”
  • Matt Kuchar echoed a similar sentiment, “Driving is certainly a premium here. The longer guys, particularly, don’t have to hit a lot of drivers. I tend to hit more than most so I can challenge some of the shorter holes, knowing those are opportunities for me to turn into real birdie-able holes and know that driving is one of my strengths.”
  • Because of its sheer length, Muirfield Village is certainly a course that can be defined as driver heavy. Yet I do not see a massive advantage for the longer hitter. Eight of the Top-15 players on last year’s leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance. Positioning in the fairway is far more important at Muirfield Village than sheer power.
  • I would still rank off the tee as the third most important major metric this week behind approach and short game, but I do believe there is more of an emphasis on driving here than year’s past. I do not view Muirfield Village as a true second shot golf course like many of Nicklaus’ other designs. There is just far too much of a penalty for wayward driving here.

 

• Approach
  • 40.7% of strokes gained at Muirfield Village have come on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%
  • Muirfield Village ranked fourth out of 40 courses last in strokes gained approach difficulty. 
  • Last year, it featured the sixth most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour. It ranked 10th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and fourth out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from 150 yards plus.
  • Muirfield Village features small greens with a fair amount of contouring. It is absolutely essential to be firing on approach here. The Top-15 players on last year’s leaderboard gained strokes on approach. The Top-five players on last year’s leaderboard all gained over 4.8 strokes on approach.
  • Last year, Patrick Cantlay completely lapped the field in Greens in Regulation percentage, and 23 out of the Top-25 players on last year’s leaderboard gained in Greens in Regulation relative to the field.
  • Here’s a few player quotes that illustrate the importance of iron play this week:
    • Jason Dufner: “Being underneath the hole is huge out here. When I play good rounds, I seem to be putting uphill all week. I’m struggling from above the hole, so position into the greens is important.”
    • Rickie Fowler: “For the most part, it’s a second shot golf course. You have to control your golf ball coming into these greens, and you have to be able to put yourself on the right side of the hole on the right section of the green, which can definitely make a difference. So having the control, coming from the fairway, it has to be the proper side of the fairway.”
    • Bubba Watson: “It’s an approach shot golf course. It’s all about controlling your distance. It’s all about your mental game, because the par threes tend to be the most difficult par threes on any course. It’s all about your approach shots into the greens and approach shots on the par threes.”
  • Muirfield Village is definitely a long-iron course as well, especially with the added length from the renovation. Last year, 21% of approach shots at Muirfield Village from 175-200 yards, which is well above the Tour average of 17.5%. 28% of approach shots came from 200 yards plus, which is well above the Tour average of 22.9%. Remember, we want to be looking at the approach distribution from last year, not historically, because the course changed prior to last year.
  • Seven par fours at Muirfield Village measure over 450 yards, three par threes measure over 200 yards, and all the par fives are generally reachable, with an approach shot coming from the 220-250 yard range. Overall, nearly 50% of approach shots are coming from 175 yards plus, so Muirfield Village is certainly a course where we want to be looking at mid to long iron play. The best long-term players from 175 yards plus in this field have been Viktor Hovland, Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Luke List, Lucas Glover, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, and Erik Van Rooyen. 

 

• Around the Green
  • 18.8% of strokes gained at Muirfield Village have come around the green, which is well above the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Last year, Muirfield Village ranked fifth out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and the two prior years, it ranked first. Dating back to 2015, Muirfield Village has never ranked outside of the Top-five in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
  • The Top-six players on last year’s leaderboard gained over two strokes around the green, which is not as common as one would think. 30 of the Top-36 players on last year’s leaderboard gained strokes around the green. For context, only 18 of the Top-36 players on last year’s leaderboard at Colonial gained in that category.
  • Muirfield Village ranked 13th out of 40 courses last year in up and down percentage from the fairway. It ranked third out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the rough, and the 12th out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the bunkers. Muirfield Village features some of the deepest bunkers on the PGA Tour, and this is certainly a course where we want to be looking at Sand Save percentage. The best long-term bunker players in this field have been Lucas Herbert, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, Adam Hadwin, Charles Howell III, C.T. Pan, Sungjae Im, and Brian Harman. 
  • As difficult as the bunkers are, players would probably prefer to be in those than the green-side rough. It’s incredibly difficult to judge how the ball will come out of four inch Kentucky Bluegrass, which explains why Muirfield Village has essentially been the hardest course on the PGA Tour over a large sample size to save par on from the green-side rough. 

 

• Putting 
  • 29.9% of strokes gained at Muirfield Village have come putting, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%.
  • Last year, Muirfield Village ranked 32nd out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty.
  • There is certainly some undulation to these greens, but Muirfield Village is not a particularly difficult putting course. Last year, it ranked 23rd out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 35th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 33rd in putting difficulty from 15 feet and beyond. These greens are incredibly true, and it’s really easy to hole putts here. They are also on the smaller side, so we don’t have to be too concerned with lag putting this week either.
  • Here’s a quote from Jason Dufner that contextualizes some of these statistics, “They are by far the best greens that we play on all year, from the standpoint of consistency on speed from green to green. When I step on the seventh green, I feel like it’s the same speed as the 14th and 17th. And then also just the consistency of the roll. You feel like you get a really pure roll. If you start it on your line and your read is right, you’re probably going to be holing a lot of putts.
  • Here’s another one from Jordan Spieth, “The greens are arguably tied for first or second only to Augusta National as far as speed and how pure they consistently are each year. I love putting on greens where you have to have imagination, you have to play those ridges, speed control is so vital.”
  • Ultimately, Muirfield Village is a tee to green test through and through with greens that most players seem to love. A comfortability of Bent-grass is all that I will be looking at this week in terms of putting statistics. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Harris English, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, Alex Noren, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Cameron Tringale, Troy Merritt, Abraham Ancer, and Cameron Smith. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Par five scoring is the big one here. 23 out of the Top-25 players on last year’s leaderboard gained relative to the field in par five scoring. Scottie Scheffler led the field in par five scoring and finished third. Morikawa, who was second in par five scoring, finished second in the tournament, and Lowry, who was third in par five scoring, finished sixth on the leaderboard. The best long-term par five scorers in this field have been Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Keith Mitchell, Rory McIlroy, Jhonattan Vegas, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • As is the case with any challenging course, I will be attempting to identify players who raise their baseline in difficult scoring conditions. Players that consistently perform well at Bay Hill, Riviera, Torrey Pines, and major championships, also tend to thrive at Muirfield Village. The best long-term players in this field in difficult scoring conditions have been Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, and Shane Lowry. 

 

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • Running through the player quotes, it’s blatantly obvious that experience matters at Muirfield Village. We’ve seen Hideki Matsuyama win on debut here before, but generally, this tournament is won by a player who has played well here before. The only courses on Tour with a stronger correlation between course history and success have been Augusta National, Bay Hill, Harbour Town, TPC Scottsdale, and Waialae. The best players in this field at Muirfield Village have been Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, Kevin Streelman, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day
  • My favorite comp course to Muirfield Village would be Valhalla, host of the 2014 PGA Championship. Valhalla is another Nicklaus design with similar agronomy and difficult scoring conditions. Many of the Nicklaus courses that we see on Tour are either really easy, or in Florida on Bermuda-grass, so I will be refraining from looking too closely at PGA National, PGA West, Montreux, Glen Abbey, or Old Greenwood. Valhalla is the only Nicklaus course that checks the box of Bent-grass, thicker rough, more difficult scoring conditions, and has a plurality of long par fours and long-iron approach shots. Running through the Valhalla leaderboard, it should not come as a surprise that Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Palmer, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, Jimmy Walker, Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, and Kenny Perry have all also experienced a great deal of success at the Memorial. The top players on the Valhalla leaderboard that are in the field this week are Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Danny Willett, Nick Watney, Hideki Matsuyama, and Luke Donald. 
  • Yes, Jack Nicklaus will be the first to tell us that he based a lot of his inspiration for Muirfield Village from Augusta. The iconic Masters venue also places a heavy premium on mid to long iron play, short game, and par-five scoring. With that being said, the biggest reason that I will not be diving too deep into Masters form is that since the renovation, Muirfield Village has become way more of a challenging course off the tee than Augusta. Unlike Augusta, there is a massive penalty for missing the fairway at Muirfield Village. Four inch Bluegrass rough lines the fairways of Muirfield, whereas Augusta features very little rough at all on the entire property. It’s certainly worth looking at, as there has been a fair amount of crossover on the leaderboards, but it’s not a comparison that I would live or die with. The best players at Augusta National in this field have been Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth, and Patrick Reed. 
  • There are a fair amount of other challenging PGA Tour courses, both past and present, that simulate difficult scoring conditions, long-iron play and short game. Riviera, Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Firestone, and the Concession, another Jack Nicklaus course, all come to mind. However, I still believe I can get what I’m looking for just by lumping all of these courses into the “difficult scoring conditions bucket.”

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (13%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
• Approach (36%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Greens in Regulation Gained (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (7%)
• Around the Green (17%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (12%)
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Putting (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting Bent-grass (8%)
• Scoring Stats (12%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Scoring Conditions (5%)
• Course History/Comp Courses (14%)
  • Muirfield Village (8%)
  • Valhalla (3%)
  • Augusta National (3%)

 

Top 20 

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Jon Rahm
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Shane Lowry
6. Daniel Berger
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Viktor Hovland
11. Luke List
12. Joaquin Niemann
13. Tom Hoge
14. Gary Woodland
15. Cameron Smith
16. Chris Kirk
17. Collin Morikawa
18. Jordan Spieth
19. Sungjae Im
20. Adam Hadwin

 

Most over-valued based on expected price: Collin Morikawa (17th), Jordan Spieth (18th), Cameron Young (36th), Abraham Ancer (66th), Davis Riley (78th), Patrick Reed (86th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Luke List (11th), Tom Hoge (13th), Gary Woodland (14th), Chris Kirk (16th), Adam Hadwin (20th), Cameron Tringale (23rd)