By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Quail Hollow
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Designer: George Cobb (1961) with Tom Fazio (2013 & 2016) re-design
• Length: Par 71; 7,521 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on seven holes
• Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass measuring 33 yards wide on average
• Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass. Reports have been that the rough will be cut even shorter than its usual Wells Fargo Championship length (2 inches) 
• Greens: 6,578 square foot on average, featuring G12 Champion Bermuda-grass, running 12.5 on the stimp.

 

It’s Presidents Cup week! While the Presidents Cup may not be steeped in the alluring tradition of the Ryder Cup, it’s still an event that has presented plenty of drama and emotion, even in its infantile phases. Officially operated by the PGA Tour, the event is comprised of a series of matches between a team of 12 representing the United States, and a team of 12 representing the rest of the world, minus Europe. It has been held biennially since 1994, alternating between host courses from the United States and countries representing the International team. This year, Quail Hollow, in Charlotte, North Carolina, was granted hosting duties. Before we dive into the course, let’s run through the format.

The general format is not dissimilar from the Ryder Cup, consisting of both alternate shot and best ball formats (also known as foursome and four ball matches). Each match, whether it be a doubles or a singles match, is worth one point, with a half point awarded to each team in the event of a tied match. The contest was extended from three days to four in 2000. Here’s the current format and schedule of play:

• Day 1: 5 Best Ball Matches (5 total points)
• Day 2: Alternate Shot (5 total points)
• Day 3: 4 Best Ball, 4 Alternate Shot (8 total points)
• Day 4: 12 Singles (12 total points)

Here’s how its played out over the last two decades

• 2019: United States (16-14) @ Royal Melbourne
• 2017: United States (19-11) @ Liberty National
• 2015: United States (15.5-14.5) @ Jack Nicklaus Golf Club
• 2013: United States (18.5-15.5) @ Muirfield Village
• 2011: United States (19-15) @ Royal Melbourne
• 2009: United States (19.5-14.5) @ Harding Park
• 2007: United States (19.5-14.5) @ Royal Montreal
• 2005: United States (18.5-15.5) @ Robert Trent Jones Golf Club
• 2003: Tied (17-17) @ Fancourt
• 2000: Untied States (21.5-10.5) @ Robert Trent Jones Golf Club

 

As we can see, this event has been dominated by the United States, and I would expect that trend to continue at Quail Hollow. The traditional host of the Wells Fargo Championship, as well as the 2017 PGA Championship, the George Cobb design has undergone a number of structural changes over the years, most notably by the FAZ. In an effort to beef up the course before the 2017 PGA Championship, Tom Fazio created a new first hole by combining the previous first and second holes, and a new fourth hole, by re-structuring and dividing the fifth hole. The course now plays as a par 71. Another notable change was the switch from MiniVerde Bermuda-grass to Champion Bermuda-grass. Similar Champion Bermuda-grass greens can be found at Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, TPC Southwind, host of the FedEx St. Jude’s, and the Country Club of Jackson, host of the Sanderson Farms Championship. Since these notable changes, here are the winners of every event held at Quail Hollow:

• 2017 PGA Championship: Justin Thomas (-8) over Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed (-6)
• 2018 Wells Fargo Championship: Jason Day (-12) over Nick Watney, Aaron Wise (-10)
• 2019 Wells Fargo Championship: Max Homa (-15) over Joel Dahmen (-12)
• 2021 Wells Fargo Championship: Rory McIlroy (-10) over Abraham Ancer (-9)

For all intents and purposes, Quail Hollow is a brawny, American golf course that typically requires all-world ball-striking. All four of the par threes play over par, and the sixth hole can tip out to over 250 yards. Two par fours (eight and 14) can be drivable, but the other nine par fours all measure over 450 yards! Five par fours measure over 480 yards, with the ninth hole measuring 505 yards, and the 16th hole measuring 506 yards. This easily explains the large plurality of approach shots coming from greater than 175 yards, and players will have very few opportunities with scoring clubs in hand on this golf course. The par fives provide somewhat of a respite, all featuring over a 30% birdie rate, but with the 2016 renovation eliminating one of the par fives on the front nine, birdie opportunities at Quail Hollow are few and far between. Only five holes feature over a 15% birdie rate, while 13 holes feature over a 15% bogey rate!

Quail Hollow is famous for its finishing stretch, dubbed the “Green Mile.” The 16th, 17th, and 18th holes make up three of the four hardest holes on the golf course, all playing over a quarter stroke over par. The 18th hole traditionally plays as the hardest hole on the course, with a stroke average of 4.32, a 30% bogey rate, and just a 7% birdie rate. I would imagine that the course will be set up in a way to inhibit more scoring than what we have seen at the Wells Fargo, but still, Quail Hollow is a firm test that will give way to the occasional train wreck.

For the Presidents Cup, the course will feature a brand new routing to further ensure that the “Green Mile” plays a role in (likely) every match. The first eight holes will play as they always do, but the traditional 12th hole will now play as the ninth, the 13th as the 10th, the 14th as the 11th, the 15th as the 12th, the 16th as the 13th, the 17th as the 14th, and the 18th as the 15th. Thus, the “Green Mile” will now play as the 13th, 14th, and 15th holes on the golf course. The 10th hole will play as the new 16th hole, the 11th hole as the new 17th, and the the 9th hole will play as the new 18th. The new finishing stretch will feature a strong par five, and two challenging, long par fours. As a traditionalist, I’m not quite sure how I feel about the new routing, but I’m intrigued to see how it plays out.

Since the 2016 renovation, Quail Hollow has played as the second, eighth, and eighth most difficult course on the PGA Tour schedule. It fits firmly in the Bay Hill and Torrey Pines category as long, execution based golf courses that provide little strategic value, but remain a fine test of golf at the highest level. The roadmap at Quail Hollow is simple. Can you drive the ball a long way? Can you be elite from 175 yards plus? Is your short game passable when you inevitably miss greens? It should not come as a surprise that players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day, who are some of the most powerful drivers of the ball and well-versed long iron players, have all experienced so much success here. Let’s dive into the stats that matter.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • In 2021, 17.6% of strokes gained at Quail Hollow came off the tee, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • Historic driving accuracy here is only 53.9% compared to the Tour average of 62%. Each of the last five years, Quail Hollow has ranked inside the top-five in toughest fairways hit, but that does not mean that Quail Hollow is a particularly challenging golf course off the tee, nor does it mean that players will be deterred from hitting driver.
  • In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked 30th out of 40 courses in courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-10 easiest courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. 
  • The rough is typically not much of a problem at Quail Hollow, and there is not a great deal of trouble in the form of protruding trees or hazards in the driving areas. It ranks right around middle of the pack in terms of the width of its fairways, but similar to courses such as Bay Hill and Torrey Pines, there’s not a great deal of strategy involved off the tee. Expect players to bomb away with driver on nearly every single hole. 
  • Quail Hollow has historically ranked middle of the pack to on the easier side in terms of missed fairway penalty. Last year, it ranked 28th out of 40 courses in rough penalty, and 25th out of 40 courses in non-rough penalty. It ranked 15th in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke.
  • Since Fazio lengthened the course in 2019, each of the last four winners have averaged over 313 yards off the tee. Rory McIlroy (2021) and Justin Thomas (2017) both finished top-two in driving distance, and Max Homa (2019) and Jason Day (2018) both finished top-20. None of these four winners ranked inside the top-40 in driving accuracy, and Rory finished nearly dead last in driving accuracy en route to victory in 2021. Bombers such as McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Luke List, and Bryson DeChambeau all finished top-10 in 2021. 2019 told a similar story, with Max Homa, Sergio Garcia, Keith Mitchell, Jhonattan Vegas, and Rory McIlroy, all populating the top-10 of the leaderboard. In 2018, it was even more pronounced, as the top-seven players on the leaderboard (Jason Day, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, and Peter Uihlein) all gained significantly to the field in driving distance.
  • I write often about how there are certain courses (Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village) where players such as Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy start on second base because they are such elite drivers of the ball, and Quail Hollow certainly fits that bill. Players that feature a high carry distance will undeniably have a huge edge at Quail Hollow. The longest players in the Presidents Cup are Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, Justin Thomas, Cameron Davis, and Tony Finau. 
  • I feel comfortable suggesting that distance is more important than accuracy at Quail Hollow. That is not to say that shorter players (Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Joel Dahmen) can’t compete here, but their roadmap to success is far more challenging. Being straight on this course is far more of a luxury than a necessity. I want to identify players that give themselves a greater edge on long, driver heavy golf courses. The players in the Presidents Cup that gain the most strokes off the tee on courses measuring over 7,400 yards are Corey Conners, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, and Cameron Young. 

 

• Approach
  • In 2021, 33.1% of strokes gained at Quail Hollow came on approach, which is just below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • In 2021, it also ranked seventh out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked as one of the most difficult approach courses on the PGA Tour schedule.
  • Historic greens in regulation percentage is only 61% compared to the Tour average of 65.8%. In 2021, Quail Hollow featured the seventh most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in lowest greens in regulation percentage.
  • Quail Hollow is definitively a long iron course, with a whopping 31.5% of approach shots coming from 200 yards plus. Another 22.2% come from 175-200 yards. All proximity buckets below 175 yards are comfortably below Tour average, but with over 50% of shots coming from over 175 yards, that is the range that we want to be focusing on. The best players in the Presidents Cup from 175 yards plus are Xander Schauffele, Cameron Davis, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im. 
  • Even with how much distance helps at Quail Hollow, I would still weight long iron play more heavily than distance. The second shot at Quail Hollow remains far more difficult than the first shot, and in both 2018 and 2019, every single one of the top-20 players on the leaderboard gained strokes on approach. In 2021, every single player in the top-five gained over 3.5 strokes on approach.

 

• Around the Green
  • In 2021, 17.7% of strokes gained came around the green, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 14.4%.
  • In 2021, Quail Hollow ranked 22nd out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked middle of the pack in around the green difficulty.
  • Quail Hollow is a challenging enough course with a low enough greens in regulation percentage, that around the green play here cannot be ignored. With that being said, the degree of difficulty of the surrounding green-side areas will not be inflicting much fear into players.
  • Last year, Quail Hollow ranked 22nd out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 24th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 17th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Each of the last three years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in all around the green metrics.
  • Around the green play is certainly my lowest weight of all the four major statistical categories. In 2019, none of the top-four players on the leaderboard gained over a stroke around the green. In 2020, three of the top-five players on the leaderboard lost strokes around the green, and in 2021, Keith Mitchell finished third, while losing nearly three strokes around the green.

 

• Putting
  • In 2021, 31.7% of strokes gained at Quail Hollow came putting, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 35.6%.
  • In 2021, Quail Hollow also ranked sixth out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top-eight in strokes gained putting difficulty.
  • The course features extremely quick, undulating Bermuda-grass greens. Last year, it ranked eighth out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 19th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and third out of 40 courses in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet.
  • Despite Quail Hollow doing a fine job of separating elite from average tee to green play, every player in the top-eight of the leaderboard in 2018 gained over four strokes putting. In 2019, Homa was rock solid from tee to green, but he won because he gained 9.9 strokes putting. Rory was even better from tee to green, but he still gained more strokes putting than in any other major statistical category. Quail Hollow is far from a putting a contest, but it does test every aspect of a player’s game, and putting is part of that equation. Jason Dufner, Rory McIlroy, and Aaron Wise, are the only three players across the past three years to finish top-10 at Quail Hollow while losing strokes putting.
  • The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field have been Kevin Kisner, Sam Burns, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Billy Horschel, and Max Homa. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Quail Hollow remains one of the longest golf courses on Tour, so the biggest ancillary stat that I wanted to examine was how players have performed on other long golf courses. There are certain players such as Rory McIlroy that significantly raise their baseline on longer golf courses because of their power off the tee. However, there are also players such as Patrick Reed (winner at Torrey Pines and Doral), that despite featuring below average distance off the tee, have no issues competing on long golf courses either. There are certain shorter players that really struggle on big ballparks such as Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, but other shorter players do not lower their baseline as much as you would expect. Corey Conners is an interesting case study. He ranks below average in driving distance, and has experienced plenty of success on shorter, positional courses, but he actually improves his overall strokes gained baseline on longer courses. He’s been just as lethal on courses such as Bay Hill, Augusta National, and the Country Club of Jackson. The best players in the Presidents Cup on courses over 7,400 yards are Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Scottie Scheffler. 
  • Quail Hollow is not a golf course that generally yields a lot of birdies, and maybe if I was breaking down Quail Hollow ahead of the Wells Fargo, I would spend more time looking at bogey avoidance, but I expect the course to be set up to inhibit scoring this week. Birdies or Better percentage is a crucial match play stat on any course, as in this format, variance is king. The best players in birdie or better percentage have been Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Quail Hollow ranks 12th out of 40 courses in terms of the predictive nature of its course history. There is definitely some nuance to its green complexes, and it tends to be kind to same players over and over again. Still, I do believe a player with a skill-set similar to Cameron Young or Taylor Pendrith can experience success here immediately. The best players in this field at Quail Hollow have been Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Kisner, Tony Finau, and Jordan Spieth. Here’s how every player in this field has performed at Quail Hollow:
    • Justin Thomas: 7th, MC, 1st, 21st, 26th
    • Hideki Matsuyama: 38th, 20th, 11th, 5th, 76th, 31st
    • Tony Finau: 16th, 28th, 44th, 21st, 60th, MC
    • Jordan Spieth: 32nd, 28th
    • Kevin Kisner: MC, 6th, 38th, MC, 7th, MC
    • Max Homa: 1st, MC
    • Patrick Cantlay: 33rd, MC
    • Cameron Davis: MC, 26th
    • Aam Scott: MC, 17th, 61st, 76th
    • Corey Conners: MC, 42nd, 43rd
    • Sam Burns: 55th
    • K.H. Lee: 60th, 58th
    • Sebastian Munoz: 38th, MC
    • Xander Schauffele: MC, 72nd, 14th
    • Si Woo Kim: MC
    • Mito Pereira: MC
    • Collin Morikawa: 1st appearance
    • Scottie Scheffler: 1st appearance
    • Cameron Young: 1st appearance
    • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 1st appearance
    • Taylor Pendrith: 1st appearance
    • Tom Kim: 1st appearance
  • Torrey Pines and Bay Hill both come to mind as the two most obvious reference points for Quail Hollow. There is a great deal of crossover on those leaderboards, and all three courses reward distance off the tee and feature a large plurality of long iron approach shots.
  • The best players in the Presidents Cup at Torrey Pines have been Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, and Justin Thomas. 
  • The best players in the Presidents Cup at Bay Hill have been Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Max Homa, and Adam Scott. 
  • I would refrain from looking too heavily at Muirfield Village however, as the iconic Nicklaus design features a grave penalty for wayward driving. The wider fairways at Muirfield Village actually create more strategic value off the tee, whereas the fairways are so narrow at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Bay Hill, that it simply turns into a long drive competition.
  • Memorial Park and Jackson Country Club also have my attention as secondary comps. Memorial Park is another long and difficult golf course where distance and long iron play is the name of the game. There is certainly some more color to the green complexes at Memorial Park, as they were designed by Tom Doak, but both courses seem to attract the same types of players. Jackson Country Club is a far easier version of Quail Hollow, but it’s still a long golf course with nearly identical agronomy.
  • The best players in the Presidents Cup at Memorial Park have been Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, and Tony Finau. 
  • The best players in the Presidents Cup at Jackson Country Club have been Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, and Sebastian Munoz. Burns and Munoz have both won at Jackson Country Club.
  • Other tertiary courses that come to mind in terms of long and difficult courses where distance and long iron play is crucial include Olympia Fields, Winged Foot, and Doral. I don’t believe you are crazy for looking at Augusta either.

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Courses over 7,400 yards (8%)
  • Driving Distance (10%)
• Approach (31%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards (10%)
• Around the Green (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (7%)
• Putting (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda (12%)
• Scoring Stats (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Courses over 7,400 yards (7%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (17%)
  • Quail Hollow (7%)
  • Torrey Pines (3%)
  • Bay Hill (3%)
  • Country Club of Jackson (2%)
  • Memorial Park (2%)

Model Rankings

1. Sam Burns (USA)
2. Xander Schauffele (USA)
3. Justin Thomas (USA)
4. Tony Finau (USA)
5. Sungjae Im (INT)
6. Corey Conners (INT)
7. Scottie Scheffler (USA)
8. Max Homa (USA)
9. Hideki Matsuyama (INT)
10. Cam Davis (INT)
11. Cameron Young (USA)
12. Patrick Cantlay (USA)
13. Adam Scott (INT)
14. Jordan Spieth (USA)
15. Mito Pereira (INT)
16. Taylor Pendrith (INT)
17. Sebastian Munoz (INT)
18. Collin Morikawa (USA)
19. Si Woo Kim (INT)
20. Billy Horschel (USA)
21. K.H. Lee (INT)
22. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (INT)
23. Kevin Kisner (USA)
24. Tom Kim (INT)* (Not enough data to qualify)