Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
Seaside Course
- Course: Sea Island (Seaside Course)
- Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
- Designer: Harry Colt (1928); Tom Fazio re-design (1998)
- Length: Par 70; 7,005 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 13 holes
- Fairways: Tifway Bermuda-grass with Platinum Paspalum measuring 42 yards wide on average
- Rough: Tifway Bermuda-grass (2 inches)
- Greens: 7,200 square foot TifEagle Bermuda-grass running 12.5 on the stimp
Plantation Course
- Course: Sea Island (Plantation Course)
- Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
- Designer: Walter Travis (1926); Rees Jones re-design (1998); Davis Love re-design (2019)
- Length: Par 72; 7,060 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 10 holes
- Fairways: Platinum Paspalum
- Rough: TifTuf Bermuda-grass
- Greens: 6,100 square foot TifEagle Bermuda-grass running 11-11.5 on the stimpmeter.
The RSM Classic debuted on the PGA Tour in October of 2010 at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Since 2015, the event has been played at both the Seaside and Plantation courses, and the tournament features a full field of 156 players. The RSM Classic always attracts a solid field, as Sea Island is an extremely common home base for professional golfers. Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Mat Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, J.T Poston, Greyson Sigg, Michael Thompson, and Davis Love III, amongst others, all cite Sea Island as their permanent residence. Even players such as Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Seamus Power, and Nick Wantey, spend a great deal of their offseason practicing at the Sea Island performance center.
PGA Tour pros love Sea Island for a reason. It’s a modern and well-manicured facility that features three courses: the Plantation, Seaside, and Retreat. The RSM Classic is held only at the Seaside and Plantation courses, as players will each play a round at the Seaside and Plantation on Thursday and Friday. Those who make the cut will play their final 36 holes at the Seaside course. With 75% of the tournament, including the final two days, being held at the Seaside Course, I will focus the majority of my attention on the Seaside course. Also, we have far more information on the Seaside course, as it employs shot-tracker data. The Plantation is unfortunately devoid of such valuable data. Luckily, there is not a discernible difference between the two courses. A true psycho could create a different model for each course, and then utilize a composite, weighing the Seaside model at 75% and the Plantation model at 25%. Even I am not that crazy, and while there are some subtle difference between the Seaside and Plantation, my Plantation model would not look all that different. The main distinction between the two is that the Plantation course generally plays easier because it features two extra par fives. Still, it really comes down to the wind, as we have seen instances where the Plantation actually plays more challenging in gusting winds.
Turning our full attention to the Seaside course, the Harry Colt design features large greens and extremely generous fairways. The course’s greatest defense is the wind, but winning scores across the last five years have ventured past 19 under par. The Seaside does feature four fairly stout par threes that measure between 179 and 223 yards. The 3rd hole, which measures 204 yards, plays as the third most difficult hole on the course. The 5th hole, which measures 223 yards, ranks as the fifth most difficult hole on the course. Ten of the 12 par fours measure between 405 and 455 yards, which explains the fact that nearly 50% of all approach shots at the Seaside course come from between 125 and 175 yards. The closing hole, which measures 470 yards, is the only par four on the property that measures over 455 yards. The pair of par fives play as the two easiest holes on the course, with the 15th playing more like a par four and a half. The 15th yields a scoring average of 4.42, and a birdie rate of 51%. Players who fail to make birdie on this hole will be losing ground to the field.
Ultimately, the Seaside course ranks as the second shortest course on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-13 in easiest overall scoring average. After a brief departure last week at the Houston Open from typical fall swing golf, we now return to a course where wedge play and putting is the name of the game. Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 17.9% of strokes gained at the Seaside came off the tee, which is well above the Tour average of 15.2%. That number does shoot up to 19% historically.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 16th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to slightly harder than average in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. I was surprised to find that despite featuring extremely generous fairways, off the tee has provided the most pushback in terms of strokes gained difficulty.
- Still, Talor Gooch won the event last year losing strokes off the tee, and four of the top-10 players on the leaderboard all lost strokes off the tee. In 2021, Kyle Stanley, Camilo Villegas, and Zach Johnson all finished top-six while losing strokes off the tee.
- Driving accuracy at Seaside is 70.9, compared to the Tour average of 61.9%, and the course features the fifth widest fairways on the PGA Tour.
- However, average driving distance at Seaside is only 275.8 yards, compared to the Tour average of 283 yards. Each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top-10 in lowest driving on the PGA Tour. On the contrary, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked as the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. What this tells me is that there not a huge necessity to pull driver on this course.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 15th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and in both 2020 and 2019, it ranked fifth out of 35 courses in missed fairway penalty, which also provides an explanation to why players club down off the tee, regardless of the expansive landing areas.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 34th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in lowest penalty for drives that land in the rough.
- On the contrary, Seaside ranked 21st out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty, but it also ranked first in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke. Essentially, Seaside features extremely magnanimous fairways, and if players who just happen to miss in the rough should not be concerned either. Yet there is still amount of water and marshland in play off the tee. The only way players can find themselves in trouble off the tee at Seaside is via the big miss that will result in a penalty stroke. For this reason, I am not overly concerned with identifying the most accurate drivers of the ball in the field. These fairways are so wide that players really do not gain much of an advantage for possessing elite accuracy. With that being said, extremely wayward driving is a total recipe for disaster at Seaside. Good drive percentage can help me identify those that consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that’s required at Sea Island. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Aaron Rai, Ryan Armour, Tony Finau, Brendon Todd, Hayden Buckley, Matthew NeSmith, Brendan Steele, Taylor Pendrith, David Lipsky, and Adam Long.
- Interestingly enough, seven of the top 14 players on last year’s leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, while all ranking above average in good drive percentage. 2021 told a similar story, as seven of the top-15 players on the leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, yet 12 of the top-15 ranked above average in good drive percentage.
- Finally, we must answer the question every week of how much distance matters. The simple answer is yes, distance helps on every course, but I only view it as a worthy statistic for modeling purposes if I can identify a sizable correlation between driving distance and success. That is far from the case at Seaside. With a large plurality of short to medium length par fours, and two par fives that are generally reachable by all players, Sea Island certainly falls into the bucket of courses that shorter hitters are not disadvantaged at. The top-10 players in true strokes gained at Seaside (minimum four rounds) are: John Senden, Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, K.H. Lee, Denny McCarthy, David Toms, Kevin Kisner, Talor Gooch, Sebastian Munoz, and Corey Conners. Not exactly a murderer’s row of bombers off the tee! One would think that generous fairways would allow for bombers to wail away with driver, but there’s enough trouble in the form of hazards to deter most from relying too heavily on the big stick.
- Ultimately, Seaside falls in the middle when it comes to the importance of off the tee. It is not of the TPC Summerlin or Pebble Beach ilk, where off the tee is completely de-valued. Yet the Colt design is neither a true “Position A” golf course such as El Camaleon or TPC Potomac, where players are completely dead on arrival if they are unable to keep the ball in play. Seaside features some of the widest fairways on Tour, but 19.0% of strokes gained have come off the tee (a full 4% greater than Tour average), which does display that players are able to gain an advantage if they can position themselves in the right spot. Not to mention the fact that Seaside ranks first in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke! Overall, despite the wide fairways, I still have a fairly standard weight on off the tee, and I am primarily concerned with identifying those who can keep the ball in play and are devoid of the big miss.
- Approach
- Last year, 32.3% of strokes gained at Seaside came on approach, which is slightly below the Tour average of 34.7%. That number does fall to 30% historically.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 30th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-12 in easiest strokes gained approach difficulty.
- Greens in regulation percentage at Seaside is 73.9% compared to the Tour average of 65.7%. Last year, Seaside featured the fifth easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-five easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
- The three proximity buckets that rank above average at Seaside are 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards, and 150-175 yards. Seaside is definitively a short to middle iron course. Only 34% of all approach shots at the Colt design come from over 175 yards, which is well below Tour average. On the contrary 44% of all approach shots fall between 125-175 yards, which is unsurprising given the large plurality of short to medium length par fours. The best long-term middle to short iron players in this field are Justin Lower, Russell Knox, Justin Rose, Tom Hoge, Tony Finau, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Armour, Mark Hubbard, Ryan Moore, and Sam Ryder.
- I do not believe that one needs to be an elite iron player to experience success at Seaside, but you’d better make up for it with the flat-stick. When we really boil it down, Seaside is a wedges and putting course. Last year, the top-eight players on the leaderboard all gained over 3.5 strokes on approach
- Around the Green
- Last year, 12.1% of strokes gained at Seaside came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. That number falls even further to 11.7% historically.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 32nd out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-10 easiest in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 21st out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, and each of the last five years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- The green-side rough is even less of a problem. Last year, Seaside ranked 34th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the rough, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-eight in easiest around the green difficulty from the rough.
- Same story with the bunkers. Last year, Seaside ranked 35th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-eight in easiest around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
- In 2021, not a single player in the top-15 gained over two strokes around the greens. Short game is simply not a relevant part of the equation this week.
- Seaside is one of the easiest around the green courses on the PGA Tour, and with such a high greens in regulation percentage, players will rarely need to rely on their short game at all this week. I would not endorse spending any time looking at around the green metrics here.
- Putting
- Last year, 37.7% of strokes gained at Sea Island came with the flat-stick, which is certainly above the Tour average of 35.6%. That number rises even higher to 39.3% historically. By these metrics, this tournament is exactly what we would define as a putting contest. Again, none of this is surprising given the exorbitant greens in regulation percentage. Unless the wind really gets going, Seaside does not do the best job of separating elite from moderate tee to green play. On countless occasions, we’ve seen average ball-strikers get by on the strength of their flat-stick. Of the last ten winners, Talor Gooch is the only player I would argue is a top-25 ball-striker on Tour.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 11th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, which feels like an anomaly, as within the past five years, it has ranked as one of the easiest strokes gained putting courses on the PGA Tour.
- Last year, Seaside also ranked 16th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to below average in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet.
- Last year, Seaside ranked 10th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet. Again, this is almost certainly an anomaly, as each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top-12 easiest putting courses from five to 15 feet.
- Lag putting is not much of a challenge at Seaside either. Last year, the Colt design ranked ninth out of 38 courses in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet, but each of the last five years it has ranked average to easier than Tour average in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet. In 2019, it ranked as the second easiest lag putting course on Tour, and in 2018, it ranked as the third easiest lag putting on course on Tour.
- Along with wedge play, I would place Bermuda putting as the most essential key to success at Sea Island. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Brian Gay, Adam Long, Ben Taylor, Martin Trainer, Kevin Kisner, Brendon Todd, Chesson Hadley, Ryan Armour, Denny McCarthy, and Matt Kuchar.
- Scoring Stats
- On any course that ranks top-12 in easiest overall scoring average, I will be looking heavily at players who raise their game in easy scoring conditions and have an affinity for going low. The players that make the most birdies per round are Tony Finau, Taylor Montgomery, Trey Mullinax, Scott Brown, Stephan Jaeger, Ben Griffin, Tom Hoge, Justin Rose, Nick Hardy, and Brendon Todd.
- Generating scoring opportunities at Seaside is an absolute must. On wedge heavy courses, I always look to identify the players that give themselves the most birdie looks per round inside 15 feet. The players that generate the most scoring opportunities inside 15 feet per round are Tom Hoge, Davis Riley, Chris Gotterup, Kevin Streelman, Luke List, David Lipsky, Tony Finau, John Huh, Mark Hubbard, and Brian Stuard.
- Finally, Seaside is a course that caters to all shapes and sizes. At Torrey Pines and many major championship venues, nearly half the field is dead on arrival. Seaside, on the other hand, is the type of course where players such as Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner are licking their chops. I wanted to look closely this week at the players that have performed best on short courses, as Seaside presents a roadmap to success for even the shortest of players. The best players in this field on sub-7,200 yard courses are Seamus Power, Tony Finau, John Huh, Tom Hoge, Webb Simpson, Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Harris English, and Troy Merritt.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- In terms of the predictive nature of its course history, both Seaside and Plantation rank on the lower end. The green complexes are relatively straightforward, and both courses are all out in front of you. Talor Gooch had missed three out of his last four cuts here before winning. Cameron Smith finished fourth last year on his debut appearance, and Seamus Power had missed three cuts in a row before finishing fourth here last year. My assumption is that folks are going to overrate the Sea Island angle. Yes, those who live at Sea Island and play both courses regularly should in theory possess a huge advantage. Yet it hasn’t always played out that way. A course under tournament conditions is far different than the course that residents see every day, and I would not recommend using “he lives at Sea Island” as a sole reason to include a player in your pool. The best players in this field at Sea Island have been Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, John Huh, Zach Johnson, Matthew NeSmith, Robert Streb, Tom Hoge, Brian Gay, Henrik Norlander, and Luke List.
- There are tons of courses on the PGA Tour schedule that fall into the short, positional, Bermuda bucket. I do feel like I have many of them covered with “Strokes Gained Total: Courses under 7,200 yards,” but there are a few tracks that still deserve a specific shoutout.
- Port Royal (host of the Bermuda Championship) places less of an emphasis on off the tee at Sea Island, but it is still a coastal, wedges, and Bermuda putting course where wind is its greatest defense. The best players in this field at Port Royal have been Brian Gay, Wyndham Clark, Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Justin Lower, Danny Lee, Seamus Power, Scott Stallings, Stewart Cink, and Peter Malnati.
- Waialae (host of the Sony Open) is another short, wedge heavy, Bermuda putting course where wind plays a major role in scoring. It should not come as a surprise there has been a ton of leaderboard crossover between these two tracks. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Keith Mitchell, Zach Johnson, Russell Knox, Zac Blair, and Stewart Cink.
- Pebble Beach (host of the AT& T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) also deserves a shout, solely based on the fact that it’s another short, coastal course with extremely generous fairways. At both Sea Island and Pebble Beach, the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, which is more often than not with a wedge. There’s more trouble off the tee at Sea Island, but neither course requires elite driving accuracy. The best players in this field at Pebble Beach have been Kevin Streelman, Nate Lashley, Matthew NeSmith, Jason Day, Danny Lee, Ryan Armour, Vaughn Taylor, Matthias Schwab, Cameron Champ, and Trey Mullinax.
- Sea Island’s extremely wide fairways explain why I’m a bit more tepid on courses such as TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac, Harbour Town Sedgefield, El Camaleon, and TPC River Highlands. All five of those course are short and positional in nature with a large plurality of short iron approaches, but I would define them all as “Position A” courses. On “Position A” courses, the first shot is of great importance. At courses such as El Camaleon, Harbour Town and TPC Potomac, and to a lesser extent, TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield, players are absolutely dead on arrival if they are unable to keep the ball in play off the tee. Players can still find themselves in trouble off the tee at Sea Island, as there is a great deal of water in play, but there is a far greater margin for error at the Colt design than the claustrophobic nature of the aforementioned courses. Unlike these courses, Sea Island does not reward players for possessing elite driving accuracy. Still, we’ve seen a fair amount of leaderboard crossover at all of these courses, as they all still highlight wedge play and allow players of all shapes and sizes to compete.
Model
- Off the Tee (8%)
- Good Drive Percentage (8%)
- Approach (30%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
- Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
- Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
- Around the Green (0%)
- Putting (18%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass (18%)
- Scoring Stats (30%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Opportunities Gained (10%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (10%)
- Comp Courses/Course History
- Sea Island (5%)
- Waialae (3%)
- Port Royal (3%)
- Pebble Beach (3%)
Top 20
- Tom Hoge
- Tony Finau
- Brian Harman
- Justin Rose
- Matthew NeSmith
- Brendon Todd
- Chesson Hadley
- Mark Hubbard
- Matt Kuchar
- Davis Riley
- Ryan Armour
- Ben Griffin
- Stephan Jaeger
- John Huh
- Scott Stallings
- Adam Svensson
- Taylor Pendrith
- Sam Ryder
- Alex Smalley
- J.J. Spaun
Best of luck this week – AL
